NASDAQ Normal volatility. Bullish trend intact.Nasdaq (NDX) gave as the ultimate bottom signal on our buy call 2 weeks ago (see chart below) and staged a massive recovery from July's correction:
Right now it tested and held the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as a Support, establishing the new demand zone. During the previous Bullish Legs of the nearly 2-year Channel Up, when the price action remained above the 1D MA50, Nasdaq extended to a new Higher High on that pattern.
We may face some minor volatility for max a week, as the index encountered during the first to Bullish Legs but we should soon test the Inner Higher Highs trend-line, which most likely will see us reach our first Target of 20900.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ 100 CFD
Powell Says "We're Cutting Rates" - S&P Performance MixedA nice alignment comparing SPX, NDX, RUT with the Fed Funds Rate showing when the FED raises rates and cuts rates and how it impacts the indexes.
1995 Cut Cycle - S&P Higher
1998 Cut Cycle - S&P Higher
2001 Cut Cycle - S&P Lower
2007 Cut Cycle - S&P Lower
2019 Cut Cycle - S&P Higher (but after 30-40% COVID Crash)
Nobody knows how this cycle will impact current markets, but we're about to find out. September 18 = 1st cut since 2019 (pre-COVID) and we've seen some impressive booms and busts since 2018. It's pretty remarkable really. The bull markets seem unhealthy, and the bear markets seem more violent and aggressive, but end sooner.
How great or how nasty does it get? Let's figure it out and trade accordingly.
nasdaq push uptoday we se the market recovering from yesterday drop.
we are currently at the high of the sesion. wich means that there is a possiblity of a drop.
i have marked previous OHLC daily levels. that i think might work as a support for a trade to the upside.
taregt its marked in green.
we are going to trade these levels in 15 min chart. if we see a green candle rejecting one of these levels we take the trade. no green candle no trade.
have fun
ELEKTRA
Mag 7 Drags Down Large Cap - Potential Index Wedge FormationsThanks for checking out the video today. It was a reasonably nice selloff today, led mostly by the Mag 7 stocks. All US Indexes were in red, Nasdaq taking the worst of it around -1.60% lower.
Powell on tap for Friday with Day 2 at Jackson Hole. The market is oh so curious if the FED will cut 25 or 50 bps in September and we have plenty of news to digest prior to the official September 18 FOMC Meeting and Press Conference.
If Friday Aug 23's trading day pushes lower and helps balance out the aggressive bull moves from August 5's bottom, we could see a nice wedge pattern in the works - lower highs / higher lows.
Watch the S&P Daily 200 SMA or 200 EMA for some dynamic support. It will be interesting to see if the bulls and bears both get what they want with prices on the move through September with volatility returning to elevated levels > 20 perhaps.
Thanks for watching!!!
Zoom's Surges 2.47% Early Thursday on Q2 Earnings ReportZoom Video Communications, Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ZM ) showcased its ability to navigate the post-pandemic landscape with a solid Q2 earnings report, leading to a 2.47% surge in Thursday’s premarket trading. Despite facing headwinds from decelerating growth, the company outperformed Wall Street expectations, offering a glimmer of hope for investors.
Key Financial Highlights
For the quarter ended July 31, Zoom (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ZM ) reported adjusted earnings of $1.39 per share, a 4% increase from the previous year, and above analyst projections of $1.21 per share. Revenue rose 2% to $1.162 billion, also surpassing estimates of $1.149 billion. However, this marked the tenth consecutive quarter of slowing sales growth, reflecting the company’s ongoing transition from the explosive demand driven by the COVID-19 pandemic to a more stabilized market environment.
The enterprise segment, a key area of focus for Zoom (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ZM ), saw revenue rise 3.5% to $683 million, beating expectations of $675 million. This growth is particularly encouraging as Zoom continues to evolve into a comprehensive communications platform, catering to business needs beyond its core video conferencing service.
Future Outlook: Revenue Re-Acceleration on the Horizon?
Zoom’s guidance for the October quarter has further bolstered investor confidence. The company expects revenue between $1.16 billion and $1.165 billion, slightly above analyst estimates of $1.157 billion. This outlook, along with an upward revision of its full-year revenue and profit forecasts, suggests that Zoom’s expanded product suite is gaining traction with enterprise customers.
Despite these positive developments, Zoom’s stock remains under pressure, having dropped nearly 18% before the earnings report and 16% year-to-date. The market has been concerned about the company’s ability to maintain growth, particularly as competition intensifies from giants like Microsoft and its Teams platform.
Strategic Shifts and Leadership Changes
Zoom’s efforts to diversify its offerings are evident in its recent moves. The company is expanding its business tools to include phone systems, contact centers, and AI-powered assistants. Additionally, the launch of a single-use webinar service capable of hosting up to 1 million attendees signals Zoom’s commitment to innovation and adaptability.
However, the announcement of CFO Kelly Steckelberg’s departure at the end of the fiscal quarter has added an element of uncertainty. While Zoom clarified that Steckelberg’s exit is not due to any internal disagreements, the search for a successor will be closely watched by investors.
Navigating the Post-Pandemic World
Zoom’s success during the pandemic was unprecedented, but the company now faces the challenge of maintaining relevance in a world that is gradually returning to in-person interactions. The ongoing decline in consumer and small business customers has been a point of concern, with sales in this segment remaining flat year-over-year. However, the company reported its lowest ever churn rate, indicating some stability in this crucial market.
CEO Eric Yuan emphasized the resilience of Zoom’s business, particularly among smaller customers, and highlighted the platform’s role in hosting significant political events, including those supporting Vice President Kamala Harris. This demonstrates Zoom’s continued importance in various sectors, even as it navigates a more competitive and less predictable environment.
Conclusion
Zoom’s Q2 earnings report may have provided a short-term boost to its stock, but the road ahead remains challenging. The company’s ability to reaccelerate growth, especially in its enterprise segment, will be critical in determining its long-term success. As Zoom continues to innovate and expand its product offerings, investors will be watching closely to see if the company can sustain its momentum in a post-pandemic world.
With the market’s focus on the bottom line and the looming leadership transition, Zoom’s next moves will be pivotal in shaping its future trajectory.
What Wall of Worry? Path of Least Resistance for NowI reviewed an interesting study Tuesday about V bottoms. Over 20 years of data showing the average "V Bottom" takes nearly 1 year to come back and get into positive territory.
The fact that all US Indexes and many stocks have done this in 10-15 trading trades is pretty remarkable. Will we more path of least resistance at all-time highs or will we see resistance actual hold for a beat.
All US Markets closing green today, Russell 2000 led the indexes today with +1.30%
DXY hitting fresh lows, but 101 and 100 are major technical support levels that I'm watching.
Review at your convenience. Thanks for watching!!!
Bulls Say "Can't Stop Won't Stop" - S&P 1% from All-Time HighsIt's as if the markets couldn't wait to open on Monday and continue what they've been doing for 9 of 11 trading days - push higher.
S&P +.96%
Nasdaq +1.31%
Dow +.58%
Russell 1.22%
For a Monday, it was a pretty directional day.
Wed-Fri is when the US news hits (FOMC Minutes, PMI, Jackson Hole, Powell Speech) so let's see if the party bus continues to rock until something forces a pause.
S&P is a mere 1% off of the all-time highs. All of these comebacks are mighty impressive considering it's the bears that usually accelerate the direction - these bulls are highly motivated.
QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF PredictionIf you haven`t bought the last dip on QQQ:
Historically, the QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF has demonstrated a consistent pattern where a Relative Strength Index (RSI) at or below 30 triggers buying activity.
This technical indicator, typically viewed as signaling an oversold condition, has reliably attracted investors looking to capitalize on perceived undervaluation.
As a result, these dips have been quickly bought up, suggesting a strong market tendency to rebound from such low RSI levels.
I expect the recovery to be V-shaped or W-shaped, ending the year higher.
NASDAQ Reality will again hit those betting against the market.10 months ago (October 06 2023, see chart below), we published an idea with a similar title, as following a standard technical 3-month correction, there was a growing bearish sentiment amidst market fear over a potential economic slowdown of the 2023 recovery:
As you can see none of the 'fears' prevailed and instead the index offered us the best buy opportunity at the time. The early August correction has been the best buy opportunity since then.
After a 3-week correction, quite aggressive for sure, Nasdaq (NDX) reached its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in almost 1.5 years and rebounded emphatically, making the strongest case possible that this Support level priced the new market bottom.
We made slight changes on this 10-month chart and we've set 2 new long-term targets: Target 1 at 23250 (the 0.236 Fibonacci level) and 27000 (top of the Channel Up).
We utilized the Fib symmetry of the previous Bull Phase, prior to the 2022 (inflation) correction and since Nasdaq is currently at 97 weeks (697 days) since its Bear Cycle bottom (October 10 2022), we could assume that proportionally, we are around November 02 2022, around the 0.382 Fib.
The 1W RSI just rebounded on the 5-year Symmetrical Support Zone that only breaks during Bear Phases and the 1W MACD is also posting a similar sequence to Nov 2022. Note that as long as the 1W MA50 holds, the index is technically on a long-term Bull Phase with the Green Ichimoku Cloud supporting within the 1W MA50 and MA100 (green trend-line). Technically, the index can rise up to 29000 - 30000 before entering a new 1-year Bear Phase.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Markets Love the Bulls!!! Close to All-Time HighsS&P pulled back 78% of the fall
Nasdaq pulled back 61% of the fall
Dow pulled back 78% of the fall
IWM pulled back 50% of the fall
Impressive rips for 2 weeks of trading for the "buy the dip" community. This week's direction was steady in futures, and gaps higher in indexes from opening to closing bell. I'm keeping the charts as clean and simple as possible. September and October are rarely good months for the markets so perhaps all-time highs are a bit of a stretch, but we're much closer now than we were August 5th when everyone was freaking out.
Upcoming news for next week:
FOMC Minutes
US PMI
Jackson Hole (with Powell Speech)
My defensive plays are focused through August and September expirations, but I'll likely continue to add hedges if appropriate.
Have a great weekend and back at it next week!!!
US100 0.25% ,US500 +0.26% MULTI TF ANALYSISHELLO TRADERS
Hope everyone is doing great
📌 A look at NAS 100 & S&P500 from HTF - MULTI TIME-FRAME ANALYSIS
NAS100 DAILY TF
* Thursday saw strong bullish momentum coming into play, with Fri cont.of this move.
* The weekly & daily TF show we are still trading in BULLISH conditions on the NAS100.
* NAS100 took internal range LQ, looking for that external range LQ to be taken.
* We are trading in discount looking for a bullish continuation long term on Nasdaq.
* With PO3 looking to open bearish this week to confirm a move higher to ERL.
NAS 100 4H TF
* Looking for the week to open Bearish into the 4h FVG + OB because our HTF BIAS (PO3) on D & W .
* WEEK open I will probably be looking for short positions OPPORTUNITIES.
* We will see what does the market dish.
* On the 4 hourly ERL > IRL.
S&P500 4H TF
USOIL 1H TF
* We saw a rally with the bulls, strong momentum to the upside.
* The is a 1H FVG, this is where i would look for short entries this week.
* Should this PD ARRAY hold will be short for the NASDAQ
* BASED on the price action served this week.
S&P 500 1H TF
HOPE YOU ENJOYED THIS OUT LOOK, SHARE YOUR PLAN BELOW,🚀 & LETS TAKE SOME WINS THIS WEEK.
SEE YOU ON THE CHARTS.
IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY WAY OR IF YOU ENJOYED THIS ONE
SMASH THAT 🚀 & LEAVE A COMMENT.
ALWAYS APPRECIATED
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
* Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
| * ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - I TAKE MY TRADES ON A INTRA DAY SESSIONS BASIS THIS IS NOT FINACIAL ADVICE TO EXCECUTE ❤
LOVELY TRADING WEEK TO YOU!
2 Weeks of Recovery - But Seasonality Lurks in Sep/OctMonday - UP
Tuesday - UP
Wednesday - UP
Thursday - UP
SPY has put together 2 weeks with 20+ points from low to high eclipsing the averaging 14/15 point average true range for the week - it really is wild stuff!!!
I try to make some sense of everything today with an inverse cup & handle pattern on the SPY/SPX/ES levels. I dive into September/October seasonality and upcoming news for the US. PMI next week and Jackson Hole. More employment news and PCE before the month ends with NVDA earnings.
CME Fed Watch Tool showing a 76% probability the FED will cut 25 bps September 18 and we will still see more news on employment and inflation come in before the official FOMC meeting.
Actively trading, cautiously bullish, a bit surprised by how motivated this market is to recover. If there's any hesitation, it would make sense technically. I'm not interesting in calling tops/bottoms, I'm just interested in good levels to trade.
Thanks for watching!!!
It's a Bull - It's a Bear - It's Time to Make Up Your Mind3 straight weeks of setting from mid-July crescendos with a crash August 2. But the "crash" was met with a vicious buying spree that now places the major index 50% of so from the large high to low swing. In this video, I breakdown the technicals and scenarios trying to make some sense of where we could be heading. We are mostly through Q2 earnings. PPI and CPI prints have been digested (market likes it mostly). We still have retail sales and unemployment claims this week and if the market reacts bearish, it's a pretty obvious sign the market is more concerned about a softer labor market and recession than it is inflation. If the markets reacts bullish and continues to grind higher, we may be looking at another incredible V bottom without the FED having to do anything - which would be a surprise :)
I'm cautiously bullish and believe the market will struggle to blow through all-time highs, but it's possible we still test and sniff them out, though unlikely it will be broad. More about big money moves are cutting positions in Mag 7 so a true broadening will be a nice change of pace instead of a highly concentrated Top 10 carrying the overall market.
Enjoy the video and thanks for watching!
The Rip you Short? or the last Dip to buy?Last week's decline DID NOT BREACH THE APRIL LOWS . To be 100% objective, as long as price is above the April lows, we still retain the ability to make one more high. That is the purple arrow on the above chart. Price will need to breach 5587 in pretty much a straight shot now, as this would be a wave 3. However, that is not my primary analysis.
My primary analysis is the ES Futures market is in the final stages of it's minute circle b-wave. that should complete in the target box on the chart. From there, price should be declining in minute circle c-of Minor A. In the ES that should be in the area of the April lows, or slightly below 5,000.
Best to all,
Chris
NASDAQ New Bullish Leg targeting 20900.Early last week (August 05) we mentioned the importance of Nasdaq (US100) to close its 1W candle above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), after touching it for the first time is 17 months:
Eventually it succeeded at it and that caused a strong weekly reversal that even closed the 1W candle in green, which was the first after three straight red weeks. Technically, this could translate into the stop of the Channel Up correction, but this is only confirmed after a break above and successful re-test of the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
During the previous two Bullish Legs that followed a Channel Up Higher Low, the index made initially a +20.88% rise and then on a more long-term horizon, extended to +48.00%.
As a result, even though we are long-term bullish on the index, you can go after even shorter term targets, with the immediate one being 20900 (+20.88% from last week's Low).
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NVDIA BULLS! DON'T FART TOO LOUDLY. IT'S TOO STUFFYhe AI boom is reaching the sort of lofty heights that characterised history’s great bubbles, from the Dutch tulip mania to the dotcom bust at the turn of the millennium. Investors have now determined that Nvidia alone is worth more than the entire annual output of Spain. Add in the tech companies expected to profit most from the AI revolution — Nvidia along with Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla, and Microsoft — and the so-called Magnificent Seven are together valued at more than the stock markets of every other country on the planet. The American stock market’s spectacular performance over the last year, up more than a fifth, has been driven almost entirely by these seven companies.
We’ve been here before, many times. New technologies often produce bubbles — railways in the 19th century, automobiles and radios in the 1920s, the internet in the 1990s and now the AI boom, which was triggered by Open AI’s launch of ChatGPT late in 2022. Driving any bubble is the same conviction that the new technology will revolutionise the economy, combined with the fact that nobody can be sure just how it will do that. So narratives of transformation become self-sustaining, as the stock’s rise draws in ever more investors eager to join the ride, creating a self-propelling upward cycle.
In time, all bubbles burst, earlier or later.
Black Monday 2024? Discussing Current Markets and PositionsDuring Monday's open, I said this is going to be a day for the history books. Volatility expanded nearly 200% on the day (over 300% in a 3 day period), the Nikkei 225 crashed over 12% in a single day and had the largest 2 day decline ever. It leaked into the US markets with a nasty bearish futures run and massive gaps lower. Fortunately Monday's trading didn't make things much worse, but the damage was already done for many with that dramatic vol expansion. As the dust settles a bit more into Tuesday's trading, I wanted to review everything. Enjoy!!!
NDX Mega Rally Will Continue..Don't let the "fundamentals" mess with your head.. NDX has another 36% climb ahead of it, before it's next serious correction...
I called the bottom of this correction quite accurately (In fact, I called it but 4 days in advance to my predicted date it bottomed...
This is a text book bull flag with a measured move to the 161.8
Perfect technical structure..
Time to be long is now..
QE is coming back, rates are going to ease off, money will flow out of bonds and T-bills and back in risk assets, elections are coming up soon, war is raging and is sadly a cash machine for defence stocks, CPI lags and the market is going to pump in expectation of further inflationary pressures down the road..
AI is booming and is inherently deflationary..
The most upside I believe will be in any crypto related stock plays, as it's tech category + highest asymmetry..
Money Market says that rate cut will be an urgent one (again)Just take a look on a rate cut expectations.
In a short, the main technical graph is a difference (spread) between the nearest futures contract on FOMC interest rate (in this time Sept'24 ZQU2024) and the next one futures contract (in this time Oct'24 ZQV2024).
It's clear that spread turned to negative in 2024, and heavily negative over the past several weeks. Historical back test analysis says that in all of such cases, FOMC is to cut interest rates immediately.
The next scheduled FOMC meeting is September17-18. Will the market wait 6 more weeks?
The right answer: NO.
Rate cut will be an urgent one (unscheduled again).
NASDAQ erased 3 months of gains. Is this a Bear Market?In early E.U. session today the Nasdaq futures (US100) reached a level that was last seen on April 25, essentially erasing market gains of more than 3 months! By doing so, it hit the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since the week of March 13 2023 (almost 17 months).
That is the strongest long-term Support for the index and technically what potentially separates a long-term rally from a long-term correction phase. What matters here is the 1W candle closing. As long as the weekly candles close above the 1W MA50, the long-term bullish trend is maintained.
Last time the index closed a week below the 1W MA50 was on January 17 2022, it extended the bleeding to the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). What confirmed the new Bear Cycle was the failure to close a 1W candle again above the 1W MA50, even though it broke 4 times (January 31 - April 04 2022).
Since Nasdaq's long-term pattern remains a Channel Up anyway (since the October 10 2022 market bottom), if it holds and keeps closing above the 1W MA50, we expect a new +47% Bullish Leg (the previous two have been +48% and +49% respectively), which gives a long-term Target at 25400.
If however the index closes below the 1W MA50, we expect at least a 1W MA100 test, giving a rough Sell Target at 15500 (could be a little higher though). Further selling and a potential new Bear Cycle, will be confirmed only by a failure to recover and close above the 1W MA50 again.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
U.S. Stocks' foreseeable goalsThe most important index for the reflection of the American Stocks market is the SP:SPX , so let's start with it. Unfortunately, now the chart of this index is not rich in models, so the current logic of movements in our opinion is described by the EXP model from July 30 on the daily timeframe👇
As long as the price is below the 4-point level (5 390.95), the target levels are 100% (5 125.93) and 200% (4 873.94). In case the price returns above the level of 4 point and goes beyond the trend line, there will be a second attempt to reach the target resistance level of 5 582.31 - the formally reached target of the impulse of August 1. It is necessary to mention that this pattern, despite being on the daily timeframe - is weak.
In addition, let's look at a chart of the NASDAQ:NDX - this index includes the 100 largest non-financial companies traded on the Nasdaq exchange, primarily technology stocks.
Consideration of this index is additionally interesting because most institutional managers consider BINANCE:BTCUSDT to be in the technology sector, so NASDAQ:NDX and BINANCE:BTCUSDT is often correlated.
First, let's look at the AMEXP model that formed in mid-March 2023 on the weekly timeframe and described the entire uptrend within the 2023-2024 period on this index👇
In this model we are primarily interested in the level of HP (18 289.68), currently acting as an extreme support on the weekly timeframe, and if the price can consolidate under this level, the next support will be the level of 100% (15 891.73).
More locally, on the daily timeframe, the current movement is described by the EXP model from July 24, where the price has already reached the first target level of 100% (18 355.48)👇
It is very interesting that now on NASDAQ:NDX the price has settled in the zone of 18 355.45-18 289.68 formed by 100% and HP levels and if we don't see a rebound soon and the price tries to consolidate under this zone, the next target level will be 17 296.42.
By the way, we do not exclude that the movement towards 17,296.42 will be accompanied by an attempt of CME:BTC1! to close the CME GEP at the level of $57,805👇