NASDAQ 100 CFD
Nasdaq market analysis: 23-Jan-2025Good morning. Welcome to today's Nasdaq market analysis and educational insights for price action traders.
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Weekly Forecast 1/21/25-1/24/25Disclaimer:
I trade ICT and use ICT terminology in my analysis.
Nothing in the market is certain; this is what I would like to see price action playout this week.
This is not financial advice.
The forecast is written on the chart.
If you like this and want to see more, consider following.
NASDAQ Outlook IF the daily close above the weekly level 20491.21 or the Daily candle closes bullish , I'll be looking for buys 📈↗️opportunity to 21009.46
That's because of the imbalance that needs to be filled around that zone. Hence I'm going to watch how price reacts at that level for sell continuation.
The monthly candle is bearish. It might end bearish by the end of the Month.
Kindly boost this if you find it insightful ciao!
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Nasdaq 100 Index - outlook for Q1 2025Since the beginning of 2024, the Nasdaq 100 Index jumped 28.83%, leaving the broader market, like the S&P 500, in the dust. In the long term, the chart screams bullish, with the one-month view suggesting a strong buy. Yet, the recent trading sessions have seen some cooling off, a typical holiday lull as traders and investors take a break. The Nasdaq peaked at 22,174 on December 16, 2024, and since then, making higher highs has been a struggle. This hesitation can be chalked up to uncertainty around the U.S. interest rate policy for 2025.
At the same time, there was a flurry of buying activity when the Nasdaq hovered near its 50-day moving average, around the 21,000 mark. This suggests that investors see this level as a sweet spot for picking up shares, possibly viewing it as a solid support line amidst all the market noise.
Currently, I see no clarity in the Index's direction for the near term. If we hear hawkish news from the Fed and Trump's policy in January, the stock market could deepen. At the same time, earnings reports from the MAG7 and their guidance for the year 2025 will play a pivotal role in the Index's direction.
NDX positive move for the next two days.Riding the Nasdaq Wave: Navigating Market Swells and Dips
Let’s dive into the Nasdaq 100 Index. Flashback to a year ago, and you'll remember a 4.05% dip from December 28, 2023, to January 4, 2024. Technology stocks took a hit, shaken by rising interest rates. The market trembled under hawkish whispers from Federal Reserve officials, who hinted that rates might stay elevated to tame inflation. This stirred up volatility, causing a sell-off in high-growth tech stocks — notoriously sensitive to interest rate ripples.
Fast forward to today, and we’re staring down a similar barrel: fewer interest rate cuts in 2025 and pesky inflation hanging around. Technically, the NDX boasts solid support at around 21,000. It would take some seriously bad macro-news to dip below the 50-day moving average. Expect some range trading between 21,000 and 22,000 this week.
For traders, the game plan mirrors that of the S&P 500 Index. Pocket some profits during market highs and keep some cash handy for snagging better deals in 2025. Stay sharp, and ride the wave!
3.5% Decline on The Dow Jones 30 But Is This Unusual?Looking at the trend structure over the last 8 months, we can see a pattern play out.
Since April, pullbacks of between 3.5% and 7% have been part and parcel of the Dow Jones’s trend structure. (highlighted in red)
The current pullback of 3.5% falls within this range.
Note also how our trend filter remains mostly green and grey, with speckles of red, since April, in line with the long-term bull trend.
The index has now fallen to the d50sma (orange line), where we want to see it find support, bounce, break out and continue its climb to 50,000, as it has done since April.
The Dow Jones is also a good example of how trend structures can change despite no change in direction.
October to March saw a much faster trend, using the d20sma (blue line) as support, eventually breaking through in April and leading to a change in trend structure.
The Dow Jones is currently lagging behind the Nasdaq 100, which is setting record highs above 20,000 for the first time, and the S&P 500, which has settled into a mini consolidation above the 6000 level.
We ideally want to see Santa deliver in the final 2 weeks of December.
However, if the indices and stocks don't show new trend continuations through the rest of 2024, we want them to hold within consolidation, which will act a bases for trends in the New Year.
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