NASDAQ Potential short-term correction. The Double Bottom's testNasdaq (NDX) broke above its 4H MA50 (yellow trend-line) today but following the U.S. CPI (higher than expected) is giving up the initial gains. We are closing the buy we made last week (as shown below) exactly at the short-term bottom on the Higher Lows trend-line in order to secure the short-term profit:
A closing below the 4H MA50 will be the first sell alert, confirmation of which would be a 1D candle close below the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) which has been supporting since January 10. The 1D MACD is already on a Bearish Cross. In that case we expect to see a test of the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) inside the Pivot Zone.
That is the Zone that has made the most lows (rebounds) and highs (rejections) since September 2022. That would be the true test of the Double Bottom pattern formed on December 28, and if it holds, we expect a rebound towards the 1W MA100 (red trend-line).
It is interesting to point out the amazing symmetry of this pattern. As you see, Nasdaq already filled the first Gap on February 02 (from Resistance 1) and the next one is at 13750 (Resistance 2) slightly above the 1W MA100.
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NASDAQ 100 CFD
AZPN Short IdeaThis is a nice setup for a short in one of the leftovers of last year's rally. Pattern is pretty much the same, bit of a squeeze now that the market has been rallying after the top, but weaker than many other names. Now we use this squeeze to get in short following the levels here presented with Red line SL, black entry level (give or take for you), Green line TP 1 & 2. GL
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 FEB 13 WEEK
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 FEB 13 WEEK
Result for week of 06 Feb yielded 350pts in total from 2 trades.
Market testing breakout area 12140-12271.
Possible scenarios:
1) Long on test and accept of breakout area 12140-12271
2) Short on test and reject of 12140-12271
Volume Analysis:
Weekly = Ave vol down bar close toward low = minor weakness
Daily: Ave vol down bar close in middle = minor weakness
with demand
H4 = UHV down bar close off low = demand coming in
Price reaction levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
13587 12987-12927
12811 12572-12465 Rotation
12140-12271 11603
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Have a profitable trading week ahead.
NASDAQ on its 1-month Support. Strong Buy.Nasdaq (NDX) broke yesterday below its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and is testing today the Higher Lows trend-line that started on the January 06 Low. This is the buy entry with the highest short-term probabilities of success. We clearly outlined this solid buy level on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level in our analysis last week:
As long as the Higher Lows hold, we are on a buy targeting 13400 (+9% rise which has occurred 3 times so far during that pattern). A break below targets the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
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NASDAQ 1st closing above the 1W MA50 in more than 1 year!Nasdaq (NDX) closed last week above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since the week of January 10 2022, so effectively for more than 1 year. On this analysis we diverge from our usual 4H - 1D time-frame analysis such as the recent one below, and look into the bigger picture on the 1W time-frame:
Having broken two weeks ago above the Lower Highs trend-line of the Bear Cycle, this 1W MA50 closing last week is the last of the bullish confirmations we need to validate that the long-term trend has changed.
With the price however rejected on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, we may see a short-term pull-back, especially since the 1W RSI hit the top of the Rising Wedge that is holding since March. The Support Zone is now within the 0.236 Fib and the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). If however the index closes above the 0.382 first, we expect a structured continuation of the recovery to at least the 0.786 Fib by the start of Q3. See how almost perfectly the Fib retracement levels match key Resistance and Support lines of the Bear Cycle. The market should treat them as demand/ supply zone on the way up too.
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NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 FEB 06 WEEK
Result for week of 30 Jan yielded yielded 550pts in total for 2 trades.
Market was resisted at a previous supply area.
Supply has come in to defend the 12987 area, with a potential
for market to return to test 12140-11983.
Possible scenarios:
1) Long on test and accept of breakout area 12140-11983
2) Short at rejection of 12987-12927 // 12618
Volume Analysis:
Weekly = Higher vol up bar close off high = Weakness
Daily: Potential 2BR high vol = Weakness
H4 = 2BR + UT + down bar = Weakness
Price reaction levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
13587 12987-12927
12618 12140-11983
11603
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Have a profitable trading week ahead.
NASDAQ Pull-back started. Where to re-buy.Nasdaq (NDX) made a perfect pull-back and rebound following our most recent analysis and hit (even overextended) our 12530 target:
Since the rise has been that strong we are switching to a Fibonacci approach. The previous two pull-backs (almost) hit both the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level before rebounding around +9.00%. From yesterday's High, the 0.618 Fib is at 12290. A contact with the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) will further solidify it as a buy entry. Our buy target in that case will be 13370 (around +9.00% rise, which happened 3 times in January). Additionally, the RSI Buy Zone can also help to determine if that timing to buy is right.
This 1-month pattern will be invalidated if the price closes below the Higher Lows trend-line, in which case Nasdaq will seek the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) as the long-term Support.
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Nasdaq -> The End Of The Bear MarketHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
The Nasdaq is currently creating a massively bullish weekly double bottom and with this weeks rally already broke above the neckline of the double bottom.
From a weekly perspective I am not just waiting for a retest of the neckline, which is then turned support and then I am definitely looking for the longer term continuation to the upside.
On the daily timeframe, my prediction of the last video analysis played out perfectly and this was also a very juicy trade for me personally. Now we are testing daily resistance, so I am just waiting for an opportunity to get short, to then capitalize on the short term retracement towards the downside.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
Next economic recession this year?😓🤒As Bullard (FED) spoke, the bond market is challenging the narrative of a soft landing.
The 3 month to 10 year yield curve, which has hit every recession in the last 20 years, inverts to its lowest point. Signal that the bond market expects a recession, slowdown or anything that does not mean a soft landing
NASDAQ holding the 1 month patternNasdaq (NDX) is pull-back following Friday's high. This is nothing more than a technical 1-month pattern which, supported by the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) is posting rises around +6% and pull-backs around -3.5%.
The 4H MA50 is currently a little over 11800 and a -3.80% pull-back (max on the pattern) can make exact contact with it tomorrow. With the Higher Lows trend-line just below it, we are willing to buy there and aim at a +5.85% rise at 12530.
The 4H RSI Buy Zone can offer additional insight on the buy entry. A break and closing below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), would be a trend change and sell signal towards 10800.
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NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 JAN 28
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 JAN 28
Result for week of 23 Jan analysis yielded Intraday 100pts on 25 Jan
and 450pts for levels/position trade.
Price is now at the Rotational Resistance area.
Higher TF did not display trend changing weakness.
H4 is showing a potential weakness for long on retracement
opportunity / temporary short opportunity.
Possible scenarios:
1) Short if rejected between 12400 - 12140 / 11727
2) Breakout of rotation = possible long if price continues to trade
at upper boundary of rotation zone.
Volume Analysis:
Weekly = Ave vol up bar close off high = Minor weakness
Daily: Ave vol up bar close off = Minor weakness
H4 = Ave vol down bar (UT) S>D = Possible Trend Change
Price reaction levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
12987 12400 - 12140 11603
10890 10710 10484
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Have a profitable trading week ahead.
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 JAN 25 US Pre-Market Analysis
Possible Long on retracement
per Scenario 2 as price is testing
previous rotation area
Possible session Scenario
Long If support returns at
a) 11729 or
b) Channel support
Short if
c) Price breaks through grey rotation area,
returns to test and is rejected
Seek for Liquidity of Upper Levels?after late massive run past friday, nasdaq 100 is seeking for liquidity of upper levels.
i think 11817 make calm this indice in lower timeframe. then the gray box will be the first target of daily timeframe.
the bearish weekly orderblock has got a strong resistance which is after 3 hit we saw deep retracment.
ultimately, if price unable to pass the bearish weekly orderblock. we will see new lower low for seeking liquidity...
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 JAN 23
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 JAN 23
WISHING CHINESE FRIENDS A PROPEROUS YEAR OF THE RABBIT!
Did you do Scenario1 11385 long? Market gave at least 200pts.
Possible scenarios:
1) Short if rejected between 12400 - 12140 / 11727
2) Continuation long on retracement if price retraces on low volume
or supported by channel
3) Breakout of rotation = possible long if price continues to trade
at upper boundary of rotation zone.
Volume Analysis:
Weekly = Low vol up bar close off high = No Demand
Daily: Ave vol up bar = No demand
H4 = High vol up bar close toward high = No Demand
Price reaction levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
12987 12400 - 11908
11729 11385 10710
Remember to Like and Follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week ahead.
Collapse Of The US Economy JAPAN - AMERICA | Part OneJapan's Real Estate and Stock Market Bubble
In the present day, asset bubbles sometimes are fuelled by overly stimulative monetary policy. Japan's economic bubble of the 1980s is a classic example. The yen's 50% surge in the early 1980s triggered a Japanese recession in 1986, and to counter it, the government ushered in a program of monetary and fiscal stimulus.
These measures worked so well that they fostered unbridled speculation, resulting in Japanese stocks and urban land values tripling between 1985 and 1989.
At the peak of the real estate bubble in 1989, the value of the Imperial Palace grounds in Tokyo was greater than that of real estate in the entire state of California.
The bubble burst in 1991, setting the stage for Japan's subsequent years of price deflation and stagnant economic growth known as the Lost Decade
In the midst of an escalating pandemic, the US government enacted fiscal stimulus of an unprecedented magnitude between March 2020 and March 2021. The multifaceted stimulus acts provided for sizable Economic Impact Payments, better known as “stimulus checks”
these payments occurred in the context of significant growth in retail trading accounts and stock prices, particularly the prices of stocks that retail investors
tend to favor. Surveys suggest that on the order of 10%-15% of the payments may have shortly
found their way into the stock market.
The current US Federal reserve balance sheet (WALCL)
8.5 Trillion Dollars as of 2022
900 Billion Dollars from 2008
M2 (M2SL) Supply
21.4 Trillion as of 2022
7.6 Trillion from 2008
NASDAQ bottomed or fall 20% by March?Here is my chart combining channels, trend lines, and waves.
You can see that the NASDAQ has been fighting to stay inside the blue channel since mid-October, but has been trapped under the black channel. If it is going to hold, then this would be a good place. That would keep the blue channel bull rally intact.
However, this week's rejection off the top of the channel is not a great sign. There is still a good possibility that we still need to complete the wave C of the larger ABC correction before this is over. Right now, Wave C stands at a 0.618 fib extension of Wave A which is pretty small. If it goes lower, then a bounce and support at 0.786 seems logical, which is around the peak before the COVID crash. That could be a good long entry.
I would not rule out something closer to the 1.0 level before we are done. If that does come to be, then that takes us down to the red trend line created off the bottoms of the 2018 and 2020 corrections. That is the 9000 range (could overshoot down to 8700) and would be a great place for a big long entry. Anything lower than that, and, well, lets not think about.
Nasdaq Analysis 19.01.2023Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational analysis.
I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities.
If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below.
I will personally reply to every single comment!
If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that like button and maybe consider following my channel.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
17 Jan US pre-opening (M30)17 Jan US pre-opening (M30, Intraday,)
Weakening of demand observed, with possibility
of short on test of recent high
Plan:
1) If channel's supply line becomes resistance,
e.g, price close below channel supply line, and
is resisted, look for short.
2) If price close above channel, and price shows
support, look for long.
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 JAN 15
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 JAN 15
Did 2 trades last 2 weeks based on Scenario1 from 01 Jan's Analysis.
Intraday Test and Accept Long at 10787, TP200pts, and continuation
long on retracement on Tue 10 Jan
No demand on uptrend on all 3 TF analysis, minor weakness but
no trend changing weakness yet. Will look for long on retracement.
Possible scenarios:
1) Long if accepted at 11385
2) Short if rejected between 12400 - 11908.50
3) Breakout of rotation = possible long if price continues to trade
at upper boundary of rotation zone.
4) If Rotation happens between 12400 - 11908, trade at boundary
of range.
Volume Analysis:
Weekly = Low vol up bar close at high = No Demand
Daily: Low vol up bar close toward high = No Demand
H4 = Low vol up bar close off high = No Demand
Price reaction levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
12987 12400 - 11908
11729 11385 10710
Remember to Like and Follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week ahead.
Nasdaq Analysis 12.01.2023Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational analysis.
I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities.
If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below.
I will personally reply to every single comment!
If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that like button and maybe consider following my channel.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset: