Nasdaq 100 diagonalAs we are in a diagonal each impulse is an ABC
We now completed wave 4 and expect a 335 ABC to complete 5 of major (3)
Still a long way to go bullish
NASDAQ 100 CFD
Nasdaq 100 correction over - now headed up with wave 5So here is the bullish count, compared to the bear one earlier today
Both are valid. This one with an impulse up starting today
Nasdaq 100 target 14250 then 17300We correct in wave 4 now with target 14250, 27 october
Then we get wave 5 to 17300, 15 march
At that time we will get a major correction as this finalizes the 12 year uptrend
NAS100 ANALYSIS -UPDATEfrom previous trade set up analysis: If you calculated your risk correctly and played with your entries a little, you would have closed or TP would’ve been hit -depending on your broker spread- with an overall with a good amount of profit while still managed to maintain a good R:R
Current Analysis Update: I’m still anticipating further downside movement on NAS100 but currently on the lower time frames (M15 & H1), as you can see we had an impulse to the upside hence price is likely to push further up to grab liquidity and then after I will be waiting for price to give me a sell entry at least on the H1 or M15 before entering short positions as we are overall still in the correctional phase of an impulse to the downside on the H4.
I will wait for 6-8 H1 candles before entering, if the opportunity does not present itself yet, I will not enter until there is M15 confirmation. Remember, this is not a signal, this is only my analysis/representation of when and how I will be entering this trade. If you guys decide to take this trade, please use proper trade & risk management.
The market is talking. Can YOU hear it?Pareto's law says that roughly the top 20% of the market constituents should roughly represent 80% roughly of the overall market cap, and vice versa: the bottom 80% of constituents will represent 20% of the overall market cap.
When price seems irrational, and higher cap stocks start to represent more of the market than previous decades, and thus are given a higher weight in the major indices, it can be very useful to look at a large portion of the bottom 80% to get a more rational prospect of market value.
Russell 2000 represents many small and mid cap stocks, which are mostly given low weights in large portfolios and indices, compared to larger cap stocks such as TSLA or the FAANG stocks.
We get an interesting peek at the overall market value if we look at these companies in the median of the market, in addition to accounting for money supply expansion.
We can see that if we account for inflation, the relativity of the money supply in relation to the Russell 2000 has always topped out at about where it is now, in the past 20 years.
The price seems to be disconnected from value at the moment, off by a factor of 2 or 3. For the larger caps that are not included in this index, this overpriced factor is probably larger, maybe 5 or 10, given the current conditions of an irrationally large-cap dominated market.
Let me know what you think.
Do you think the dip of 1200 in 2020 was a valid retest?
Or was it just forced participation, coercion by the FED?
Do you think that, given such coercion, we're in for a further lower retest when said coercion becomes less effective?
Cheers
NAS100USD NQ1! NASDAQ 2021 Sep 13 WeekNQ1!
NAS100USD NQ1! NASDAQ 2021 Sep 13 Week
Trading on weakness at the top proved fruitful.
Weekly = Looks like a 2BR appeared, may result in temporary weakness.
but spread was narrower, closing off high = weakness
Daily / H4 = Broke down a rotation zone to test the high of a previous
absorption bar, will buyers support level 15434?
Strategy for Short: (Test and reject):
Strategy for Long (Test and accept):
Entry will be base off price reaction to these levels:
15700
15518
15434
15255
15138
14999
Like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
NAS100USD NQ1! NASDAQ 2021 Sep 06 WeekNQ1!
NAS100USD NQ1! NASDAQ 2021 Sep 06 Week
Nasdaq continued from strength to strength last week.
Weekly = Volume was higher than previous week, but spread was narrower, closing off high = weakness
Daily = Rotation, whipsaw expected. High volume up bar close on high = strength
H4 = Rotation, whipsaw expected. Ultra High Volume with no result = weakness
Strategy for Short: (Test and reject):
Strategy for Long (Test and accept):
Entry will be base off price reaction to these levels:
- 15700
- 15518
- 15434
- 15255
- 15318
- 15138
- 14999
Like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
US100 AnalysToday, the main trend line was broken and filtered, and the trend line is being re-tested. The sub-trend line was also broken and is being tested, but it has not been filtered yet. If the sub-trend line is filtered, the price will fall sharply. Most likely the price will reach below 15,000 . (Note that this analysis is for a 30 minute time frame.)
Is this a Quintuple Top in the NDX/SPX ?I haven't been investing for that long and at the most I've seen a triple top. I don't know if I interpreted this wrong but I'm seeing five wave crests. Assuming I'm right, if triple tops are strong and quadruple tops are stronger, quintuple tops would be even stronger. With this being said, if a breakthrough happens in the NDX/SPX, we could see the NDX start to decline relative to the SPX.
it is also important to note that on the daily chart of NDX there is a H&S formation, so if there is a breakdown we could see a up to a 5% correction.
US100 (Nasdaq 100) short to 14250, then up with leg 5Wave 3 ending soon with a diagonal in 5 (matches an ending diagonal in BTCUSD actually)
Wave 4 short to 14250
Then wave 5 to finish the 12 year bull run later in the year
NAS100USD 2021 Aug 02 Week
OANDA:SPX500USD
NAS100USD 2021 Aug 02 Week
Short opportunity for NAS las week, went to 14851, so long on the re-test of it.
Weekly: Down bar closing in middle, indecisiveness, also some supply present.
Daily = Shortening of Thrust, Supply present = weakness
H4 = We saw the sharpest decline from the high last week, Change in behavior with LH and LL.
Short preferred for week of Aug 02.
Strategy:
1) Short when price resisted at previous resistance / swing high
2) If price goes into rotation, long / short at the edges of the zone.
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
We are the the gate of a correction, how big it could be???I have done some calculations on the 3 major indexes!
TVC:NDX
Could touch 14000-14200 in the next 1-2 wks.
TVC:SPX
Could touch 4250-4300 in the next 1-2 wks
TVC:DJI
Could touch 34200 in the next 1-2 wks
The big question is:
Should we buy this dip or not???
A None Random Walk Down the Inefficient Wall Street..!What Is the Random Walk Theory?
The random walk theory raised many eyebrows in 1973 when author Burton Malkiel coined the term in his book "A Random Walk Down Wall Street.
Random walk theory suggests that changes in stock prices have the same distribution and are independent of each other. Therefore, it assumes the past movement or trend of a stock price or market cannot be used to predict its future movement. In short, the random walk theory proclaims that stocks take a random and unpredictable path that makes all methods of predicting stock prices futile in the long run.
Random walk theory suggests that changes in stock prices have the same distribution and are independent of each other.
Random walk theory infers that the past movement or trend of a stock price or market cannot be used to predict its future movement.
Random walk theory believes it's impossible to outperform the market without assuming additional risk.
Random walk theory considers technical analysis undependable because it results in chartists only buying or selling security after a move has occurred.
Random walk theory considers fundamental analysis undependable due to the often-poor quality of information collected and its ability to be misinterpreted.
Random walk theory claims that investment advisors add little or no value to an investor’s portfolio.
Efficient Markets are Random
The efficient market hypothesis states that stock prices fully reflect all available information and expectations, so current prices are the best approximation of a company’s intrinsic value. This would preclude anyone from exploiting mispriced stocks consistently because price movements are mostly random and driven by unforeseen events.
The problem is in 1973, there were no Computer, Internet, Algorithmic trading, Quant Funds, AI, and Machine learning..!
Moreover, there were no Social Media like Reddit or Twitter that make the systematic repetitive market manipulations new normalcy..!
This chart presents the price movement of
NASDAQ:AAPL
NASDAQ:MSFT
NASDAQ:AMZN
NASDAQ:FB
NASDAQ:GOOG
and Major indexes:
TVC:SPX
TVC:NDX
Question 1:
Can you distinguish which line presents which stock or index?
Question 2:
Does it really matter to distinguish which one is which???
These 7 tickers have a significant positive correlation which means they will go Up/Down together, so if you are a trader don't waste your time, pick one and you can take a similar position in others with more than a 95% confidence interval. (either buy/sell)
*A perfectly positive correlation means that 100% of the time, the variables in question move together by the exact same percentage and direction.
**In exploratory studies, p-values enable the recognition of any statistically noteworthy findings. Confidence intervals provide information about a range in which the true value lies with a certain degree of probability, as well as about the direction and strength of the demonstrated effect.
Related Articles:
www.investopedia.com
Nasdaq Analysis Hi guys.
We have recovery on nasdaq since the drop yesterday. However It may not be over, we may see more bears pushing price down the down channel to 14841- 14724. However if we do break up 15076 then id except buyers to come back in taking price to new highs. Have your stops in place as New York sessions will be opening and anything is possible with nasdaq.