NDX Nasdaq100 Fell 8.60% After the Last U.S. Credit Downgradeitch Ratings downgraded the US debt rating on Tuesday, moving it from the highest AAA rating to AA+, citing concerns about "a steady deterioration in standards of governance."
This downgrade happened following last-minute negotiations among lawmakers to reach a debt ceiling deal earlier this year, raising the risk of the nation's first default.
In the past, a similar credit downgrade had a significant impact on the NDX, which fell 8.60% in just two weeks. Back in August 5, 2011, Standard & Poor's, one of the major credit rating firms, downgraded U.S. debt after another major debt ceiling battle.
Jim Reid, a strategist at Deutsche Bank, pointed out that while the news of Standard & Poor's being the first to downgrade 12 years ago was substantial, investors had already adjusted their perceptions of the world's most important bond market, recognizing that it was no longer a pure AAA. Nonetheless, Fitch's recent decision to downgrade is still significant.
In the current scenario, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.15%, reaching its highest level since November 2022.
As for the price target for this year, it remains at $16650, as shown in the chart below:
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
NASDAQ 100 CFD
QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF Price Prediction for 2024This was my price prediction for QQQ in 2023. I was bullish, but not enough:
Considerations about 2024:
In the July 2023 meeting, the FOMC chose to raise interest rates to a range of 5.25%–5.50%, marking the 11th rate hike in the current cycle aimed at mitigating heightened inflation. The prevailing consensus among market experts hints at a potential shift in strategy, suggesting that the Fed might commence rate cuts later in 2024 as inflation gradually aligns with the Fed's 2% target. Statistically, historical data indicates that approximately 11 months after the cessation of interest rate increases, a recession tends to manifest. This pattern places us around June 2024, aligning with my prediction of a dip in the QQQ to approximately $370.
Given that 2024 is an election year, there's an additional layer of complexity in predicting market behavior. Despite the anticipated mid-year dip, my inclination is that the QQQ will conclude the year on a bullish note. This optimistic outlook hints at the onset of a 3-5 year AI bubble cycle, with the QQQ boasting a year-end price target of $460.
The integration of artificial intelligence into various sectors is expected to catalyze market growth and innovation, propelling the QQQ to new heights by the close of 2024.
Light moves in Q4 for a possible santa rally Comment: 9/16
high 2yr yields with respect to the assumption that the fed starts cutting rates in the first two quarters of 24'. Earnings coming in October with strong economic data since july (pmi, manufacturing index, retail sales, etc.) along with big spending holiday seasons coming. Equities might be sideways or in a wedge til then and break out for a santa rally toward the end of the year towards 17k.
see updated chart
NDX Broke Double Bullish Pattern, 16600 SoonDear Traders,
NDX broke the falling channel (long purple trendlines) and then repeated a breakout from the falling wedge (short purple trendlines).
I believe NDX can continue its rally because MACD turned bullish, and I can see a confirmed bullish cross on the RSI. The price is above EMAs, and the volume is high enough for the continuation. I believe the target could be around 16600.
NDX is also overbought. While I expect further upside, traders without an existing position from lower target prices could wait for a corrective retracement to enter.
Kind regards,
Ely
US100 ~ Ho Ho Santa Rally or EOY Bah Humbug Bust? (4H)CAPITALCOM:US100 chart mapping/analysis.
Nasdaq 100 consolidating into key macro economic news, much like S&P 500.
Trading scenarios into EOY:
Bullish reaction to macro economic news = break above ~16167 trading range (yellow dashed) towards ascending trend-line (green) / red box confluence zone.
Bullish extension target(s) = new historical highs surpassing ~16770 November 2021 high.
Bearish reaction to macro economic news = break below ~15690 trading range (yellow dashed) + descending trend-line (light blue) towards 78.6% Fib / 200SMA dynamic support confluence zone.
Bearish extension target(s) = descending trend-line (white dotted) / ascending trend-line (green) / Golden Pocket confluence zone.
Nasdaq 100 Rally to All time HIghs - QQQNASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:NDX
Here's what I see shaping up in the Nasdaq 100
💡 Remember we do have two big news events this week . The inflation CPI # Tuesday and the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday.
These two events 📰will be huge market drivers. One or both could disappoint and cause a decent pullback.
Putting that aside for now I do see positioning and a technical target 🎯in the 430 range for QQQ.
Buckle up - it's going to be an interesting week
NDX100: Thoughts and Analysis Today's focus: NDX100 (NASDAQ)
Pattern – Continuation.
Support – 15,765
Resistance – 16,115, 16,085
Hi, and thanks for checking out today's update. Today, we are looking at NDX100 on the daily chart.
Today's video asks if NDX100 will continue to move higher after starting to break out of a range consolidation pattern. When these patterns are seen in uptrends, we tend to look at them as continuation patterns with a new breakout higher confirming the pattern.
We have run over what we are watching and things we want to see to confirm a new leg higher or things that could set some alarm bells for a potential fail or continued consolidation.
After Friday's higher-than-expected jobs data, the NDX100 started to confirm a breakout. Price is close but hasn't yet broken out, and resistance remains in play.
Will buyers shake off a weaker start to the week and push the price into a new up leg?
Good trading.
Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) ~ December 4H SwingNASDAQ:QQQ chart analysis/mapping.
QQQ ETF in consolidation phase after strong November rally.
Trading scenarios:
Further consolidation = descending trend-line (light blue) / multiple EMA confluence zone.
Continuation rally #1 = top range of Fib / ascending trend-line (green) confluence zone.
Shallow pullback #1 = 78.6% Fib / 200MA confluence zone.
Shallow pullback #2 = descending trend-line (white dotted)\
Deeper pullback #1 = gap fill / ascending trend-line (green) / Golden Pocket confluence zone.
Capitulation #1 = 50% Fib
Capitulation #2 = 38.2% Fib / gap fill / ascending trend-line (light blue) confluence zone.
Capitulation #3 = 23.6% Fib
Strong Cup & Handle pattern on the weekly $IXIC chartToday witnessed a robust bullish surge in the Nasdaq with a cup and handle pattern (Very similar on the S&P500 too).
Introduced in 1988 by analyst William O’Neill, the cup and handle pattern signifies a bullish continuation pattern activated by consolidation following a robust upward trend. While the pattern requires time to evolve, its recognition and subsequent trading become relatively straightforward once it materializes. As with all chart patterns, trading volume and supplementary indicators should be employed to validate a breakout and the sustained bullish trajectory.
To validate the pattern, adherence to several rules is imperative:
- The cup with handle pattern must follow a significant bullish movement (Checked: +130% in 87 weeks).
- The lowest trough of the cup must be below 50% of the preceding bullish movement (Checked: -37%).
- The lowest trough of the handle must be below 50% of the cup’s height (checked: -13%).
Key statistics on cup with handle patterns, courtesy of CentralCharts, include:
In 79% of cases, the exit from a cup with handle pattern is bullish.
In 73% of cases, the cup with handle pattern’s price objective is reached (half the cup’s height), after breaking the neck line.
In 74% of cases, after exit, the price makes a pullback in support on the neck line.
In summary, the cup and handle pattern signifies a bullish continuation pattern, initiated by consolidation after a robust upward trend. While its development requires time, once formed, recognition and trading are relatively straightforward. Employing trading volume and additional indicators is crucial for confirming a breakout and sustaining the original bullish price movement.
PS: I think that a perfect cup and handle pattern would be form on the breakout of the 14300 neckline
Nasdaq100 Ahead Of Fed- The Nasdaq 100 index declined 2.60% last week, yet closed above the 14,000 major weekly support.
- Ahead of the Fed, quarterly bond sales plan and Apple's earnings; the mentioned support (represented in both: the 50-EMA and the downward channel's lower boundary) would play an important role in deciding the market's path on the short/medium-term.
- The technical indicators suggesting an upward rebound targeting: 14,520- 14,700 resistance levels.
USTECH Trade Plan Timeframe: 4HUSTECH Trade Plan Timeframe: 4H
#NDX100 #NASDAQ #USTECH #TradingwithBelieve #TradingOpportunity #Divergence #TradingSignal #USTECHtradingsignal #Forex
Hey traders! 👋 Let's dive into a potential trading opportunity on the USTECH pair using technical analysis. 📊
📉 Previously Bullish Trend:
Firstly, on the 4H- timeframe, we've been witnessing a Bullish trend in the USTECH pair. 🐻
🔄 Divergence on HH’s:
However, it's crucial to note that recently, we have started to observe a divergence pattern on the HH’s. This is an important signal that the Bullish momentum might be weakening. 📉🔄:
📊 Trade Opportunity:
Currently, we are looking at a potential trade opportunity with a Bearish bias.
📈 Entry Price: 15212
🎯 Stop Loss Level: 15407
🚀TP1: 15013
🚀TP2: 14824
💰 Investment Advice:
Please remember that trading carries risks, and it's essential to have a well-defined trading plan, proper risk management, and stop-loss orders in place. This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Make sure to do your research and consider your risk tolerance before entering any trade.
Happy trading, and may the pips be in your favour! 🚀📈💰 #HappyTrading #ProfitOpportunity #TradeSmart #CryptoSignal #StockSignal #TradingwithBelieve
USTECH Trade Plan Timeframe: 1H USTECH Trade Plan Timeframe: 1H
#NDX100 #NASDAQ #USTECH #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingOpportunity #Divergence #TradingSignal #USTECHtradingsignal #Forex
Hey traders! 👋 Let's dive into a potential trading opportunity on the USTECH pair using technical analysis. 📊
📉 Previously Bullish Trend:
Firstly, on the 1H- timeframe, we've been witnessing a Bullish trend in the USTECH pair. 🐻
🔄 Divergence on HH’S :
However, it's crucial to note that recently, we have started to observe a divergence pattern on the HH’s. This is an important signal that the Bullish momentum might be weakening. 📉🔄
📊 Trade Opportunity:
Currently, we are looking at a potential trade opportunity with a Bearish bias.
📈 Entry Price: 14850.4
🎯 Stop Loss Level: 14949.3
🚀TP1: 14756.8
🚀TP2: 14662.9
💰 Investment Advice:
Please remember that trading carries risks, and it's essential to have a well-defined trading plan, proper risk management, and stop-loss orders in place. This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Make sure to do your research and consider your risk tolerance before entering any trade.
Happy trading, and may the pips be in your favour! 🚀📈💰 #HappyTrading #ProfitOpportunity #TradeSmart #CryptoSignal #StockSignal #TradingwithBelieve
NASDAQ working with liquidityHello trader! Today, let's trade the good old US100. A nice setup has formed for entry and taking out the lower liquidity. There are possibilities that the price may go and take out the liquidity from above, but the chances of a move downwards are much higher.
🚀Please support my efforts with the "Boost" button.
❤️And a comment is the best thing you can do for me now!
DCFC f-ing meWelp my average buy in is $0.43, CEO hugged biden or something thought it was a safe punt at $0.70 after 99% draw down lol. Down more then I would like to admit on this one, but still only 5% of trading account....not ideal of course. Lets see what happens. Will sell before year for tax loss. Not Advise, good luck.
Short DLO - D local limitedNot sure what this company does, the big gap up a few weeks ago got my interest. Have been building medium sized short average $21.25, down 1.1% but adding here. Clear stops and probably will be hunted but the R/R is too good if that gap gets closed. Not advise, good luck.
NASDAQ Price Trends Analysis: Identifying Overvaluation Periods The NASDAQ, one of the most closely watched stock indices globally, is often characterized by its volatility and tendency to be influenced by tech and growth stocks. In this analysis, we will examine three key elements: periods of overvaluation represented by "circles," the potential presence of hidden bullish RSI divergence in green, and bearish RSI divergence in red.
2. Overvaluation Periods:
The "circles" in the NASDAQ context may be interpreted as periods when stock valuations are likely to be overextended. Investors, driven by excessive optimism, may push stock prices to unsustainable levels relative to underlying company fundamentals. These overvaluation periods can be attributed to various factors, including irrational market enthusiasm, speculative bubbles, or favorable macroeconomic conditions.
To identify these periods, a graphical analysis of NASDAQ price movements, highlighting significant price spikes or speculative bubbles, can be valuable. The goal is to identify moments when price trends significantly deviate from the overall trajectory.
3. Hidden Bullish RSI Divergence in Green:
Hidden bullish RSI divergence in green on the chart can suggest potential improvement in the underlying market strength, even when prices continue to decline or remain stagnant. This situation could imply a possible trend reversal to the upside.
4. Bearish RSI Divergence in Red:
Bearish RSI divergence in red on the chart may indicate potential weakness in the upward trend, even if prices continue to rise. This can signal a potential trend reversal to the downside.
5. Conclusion:
In summary, the NASDAQ, as a major stock index, experiences significant fluctuations. "Circles" may indicate overvaluation periods, while hidden bullish RSI divergence in green and bearish RSI divergence in red can signal potential opportunities for trend reversal. It is essential for investors to closely monitor these indicators and incorporate them into their decision-making processes.
However, it is important to note that stock market investments come with inherent risks, and no technical analysis can guarantee success. It is highly recommended that investors consult with qualified financial advisors before making investment decisions.
This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and stock market investments carry risks.