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NASDAQ 100 CFD

Volmageddon. Please Buckle Up. The Plane Will Be Landing SoonStocks are vulnerable to a 5% 'air-pocket drawdown' as greedy traders short volatility. Tuesday's stock-market pullback on February, 13 after a hot inflation report actually showed us something else about the market. It turns out that it did… an overcrowded short side of the options market which was reminiscent of the 2018 and 2020 'Volmageddon' events. ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF AMEX:SVXY graph says selling volatility is on the hot spot, like four and six years ago, in 2020 and 2018 respectively. The "Volmageddon" episode happened six years ago after traders piled into a bunch of ETFs that were designed to return the inverse of market volatility (essentially betting on a calm market). And when volatility went up in February 2018 and in February 2020, it tanked those strategies, sending the S&P 500 down more than 10% in two weeks. Investors appear to be taking risky bets again, specifically in VIX futures, which are assets that let investors bet on future volatility. As VIX futures expire, the S&P 500 is seeing stronger price reactions. Based on the magnitude of the move in VIX futures, there is an increasing threat that the rising level of greed in the 'short-volatility' trade, similar to what we saw in 2018 and in 2020, could result in an air-pocket drawdown of 5% or more in the S&P 500, to 4800 points respectively. The short-volatility trade became very popular strategy after 2010 when volatility was low, and traders could make money betting against market turbulence. The Cboe Volatility Index, which is also dubbed as the TVC:VIX or the market's "fear gauge," is sitting around 14, near historical lows. The rebound in interest in short-volatility strategies is once again posing a risk to the broader markets here as a negative catalyst can clearly spark a momentous, derivatives-driven selloff in the broader stock market like that which we saw in 2018 and in 2020. It's not a major concern right away as volatility upticks have been small, and the S&P 500 has remained resilient. The market shrugged off Tuesday's pullback quite fast. But it's worth keeping all your eyes on as all 2024 progress can be erased shortly. Going forward, these expirations will remain dates to keep in mind as the threat of volatility will be elevated as we move further into 2024. Technical graph for CBOE:SPX says we are still in the upside channel since Q4'22, near its upper line, with further perspective opportunities to erase 2024 gain, shrugging back to mid-line around 4800 points. Market breadth says also there're huge divergence in CBOE:SPX and in NASDAQ:NDX all the 2024, as 50-days indicators move firmly down all the year, while indices are still up so far.
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by PandorraResearch
4
US100/NASDAQ/USTECH/NDX100 Bullish Robbery planHello My dear Indices Traders, This is our Day Trade master plan to Heist Bullish side of US100 Market. my dear Looterss U can enter at the any point above my entered area, Our target is Red Zone that is Hgh risk Reversal area, If There is any Bad news it make our heist very sad and if the news is favorable for us then we can continue our looting from there with help of trailing stop. My dear Robbers please book some partial money it will manage our risk. Be safe and be careful.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Thief_Trader
QQQ bearish Head-and-Shoulders pattern confirmedNASDAQ:QQQ has shaped Head-and-Shoulders formation on the daily chart. Daily downtrend confirmed, weekly consolidation has started. Please note that broad SP500 market is still technically in an uptrend, meaning that buyers are still strong. So if you plan entering SHORT on QQQ I would wait for a pullback to increase risk-reward. An example of possible trade is shown on the chart. Of course, it is important to monitor how things develop and make corrections if needed. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by hermes_trisme
🔜 S&P 500. A key point between Bull Extension and Bear ReversalThe S&P 500 Index ( SPY) Wednesday closed down -0.22%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index DIA closed up +0.10%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ) closed down -0.83%. Stocks Wednesday saw downward pressure from the +4.1 bp rise in the 10-year T-note and a sell-off of more than -2% in key chip stocks. However, the Dow Jones Industrials saw support from blue chips such as 3M (MMM), with a gain of +5.42%, and gains of more than +1% in Travelers (TRV), Chevron (CVX), Caterpillar (CAT), Home Depot (HD), NIKE (NKE), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Coca Cola (KO). Stocks on Wednesday gave back some ground after Tuesday’s +1.5% rally in the Nasdaq 100 index that was sparked by optimism that the U.S. Feb CPI report was not as bad as feared and the Feb core CPI dipped to a 2-3/4 year low of +3.8% y/y. However, the Feb headline CPI of +3.2% y/y was slightly above expectations of +3.1% and was 0.2 points above last June’s 2-3/4 year low of +3.0%. Both CPI measures remain well above the Fed’s +2% inflation target. Fed Breadcrumbs Fed Chair Powell said last week that the Fed is “not far” from having enough confidence to cut interest rates. However, the markets are discounting the odds at virtually zero that the Fed will cut interest rates at its meeting next week since inflation is still too far above target. The odds for a rate cut are much better for the June meeting. The markets are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 1% for next week’s March 19-20 FOMC meeting, 13% for the following meeting on April 30-May 1, and 73% for the meeting after that on June 11-12. Economic Reports In some positive news for the housing market, the MBA mortgage applications index rose +7.1% in the week ended March 8, after rising +9.7% in the previous week. Mortgage purchases rose +4.7%, and refinancings rose +12.2%. The MBA’s average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the latest week fell to a 5-week low of 6.84% from 7.02% in the previous week. The mortgage rate is currently only 13 bp above the 10-month low of 6.71% posted in December. On the U.S. economic report front, the markets are awaiting Thursday’s U.S. retail sales and PPI reports. Feb retail sales are expected to show an increase of +0.8% m/m, reversing Jan’s -0.8% decline. Feb retail sales ex-autos are expected to rise +0.5% m/m, reversing most of Jan’s -0.6% decline. The Feb final-demand PPI is expected to rise to +1.2% y/y from Jan’s +0.9%, but the core PPI is expected to ease to +1.9% y/y from Jan’s +2.0%. Interest Rates June 10-year T-notes (ZNM24) Wednesday closed down -7.5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield rose by +4.1 bp to 4.192%, up from last Friday’s 5-week low of 4.034%. T-note prices saw weakness on (1) carry-over bearishness from Tuesday’s stronger-than-expected CPI report, and (2) Wednesday’s slight rise in the 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate to 2.31%. T-note prices also saw supply overhang with the Treasury in the market again Wednesday, along with strong corporate bond issuance. The Treasury Wednesday sold $25 billion of 30-year T-bonds, after selling $54 billion of 3-year T-notes on Monday and $42 billion of 10-year T-notes on Tuesday. Inflation Fears Oil prices rose about 3% to a four-month high on Thursday (March 14) on a surprise withdrawal in US crude inventories reported on Wednesday (March 13), a bigger-than-expected drop in US petrol stocks and potential supply disruptions after recent terrorist Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. Putin says Ukraine trying to disrupt Russia's presidential election. Brent crude oil futures rose to nearly $85 per barrel - the highest mark since November, 2023. In technical terms, crude oil futures are on positive path in 2024 with near 9% YTD return, attempt to hold firmly above weekly SMA(52), while the epic triangle' breakthrough can be nearby. High Risk - High Reward S&P500 index (SPY) is on positive path in 2024 with +9.28% YTD return in this time. This is a 3rd highest YTD return by this time of year, next to 2012 and 2019 returns by mid-March. Technical graph for S&P500 indicates that we are near upper line of upside channel, thanks to recent Santa rally and slight signs of US Govt Treasuries buyout in Q4 2023. Following this path, there can a possible Bull extension, as Reversed Head-and-Shoulders Price Pattern can be in further development. On the other hand, inflation fears can extend also, just to erase all the Bullish gain in 2024.
AMEX:SPY
by PandorraResearch
UPDATE: Nasdaq target 1 reached next one even higher116,956 target reached easily. This was based off the W Formation and the price breaking above the neckline. Then we had the run up which surpassed the first target of 16,956 - Text book. Now the price is heading to the next target at 18,800. This is purely based off a momentum trending strategy. The bull run is not over until it's over... So trade cautiously and trade within the trend. If you're predicting tops, EGO is taking over. If you're predicting tops, Gambling mentality is lurking. If you're trading tops - You feel you have something to prove. Simple.
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by Timonrosso
Nasdaq racing to 18,800 level - Trenders havenSInce the Nasdaq reached our take profit, our hands have been sat on! It's tricky for a breakout trader to trade the trends. We never know how long to hold on for (with daily interests that eat up our portfolios). So, I can only assume the uptrend will prevail until it reaches a target of 18,800. This is most likely where the US 30 will reach its target at 40,000 psychological level. But until then, we'll just wait for our breakout pattern to emerge.
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by Timonrosso
NASDAQ 100 Short Term Correction Risk AnalysisIt is important to know when the NASDAQ:NDX and a few of its components are overextended and that a minor correction, aka retracement, is imminent. It doesn't really matter if you can guess the exact day, but it does matter that you can see the risk coming so that you can plan to take action on open positions and plan ahead for new positions for swing or position trading. The Weekly Chart above shows where very strong support will kick in. Somewhere within the Green Rectangle, the index is highly likely to find support. This is a very strong support level since it is a yearly high, and that defines where fundamentals were before this earnings season. The only thing that could derail it is an UNKNOWN negative event for the Buy Side Institutions. That is a very RARE event. So that is the long-term view. Just for fun, let's check the Monthly DPO Cycle chart. Exactly the same line as weekly but in a more stark perspective. The cycle line is bending which is a good pattern, but it can easily peak and go sideways, which would create a dip into the index's support level if a correction goes all the way to or into that rectangle. Okay, now the daily chart to determine the short-term or intermediate-trend support level. The first higher Rectangle is weak support. Second, lower Rectangle is moderate. There are heavily weighted stocks that have fundamentals at or within these levels as well.
NASDAQ:NDX
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
CAN US100 MAKE A NEW ALL TIME HIGH ?Hello traders . i think for nasdaq the market is still bullish , if the price manages to give a bullish reaction on the area it is likely that it going to give a trend continuation for bears out there if you wanna sell look for shorts on round numbers / Psycological levels but don't hold for long its agaisnt the trend i think its going to keep going and maybe start possibly reversing on 20.000. just a personal prediction of mine . according to the relative strenght index the market is making higher high but they are getting weaker and weaker i am thinking at the price 20000 by then the buyers will be tired and we might see a possible correction.
EIGHTCAP:NDQ100Long
by xAB777
3
TARGET REACHED:Nasdaq mirroring Dow Jones & up it goes to 18,800 Our first aim was 16,956 for the Nasdaq 100, and wow, did it deliver, perfectly echoing our Dow Jones insights. It soared right to its initial goal of 16,956, just as we theorized. ANd it's been on the up ever since. But here's where the plot thickens—into a trending market. And let me tell you, this is where things get tricky. For breakout traders, finding that golden entry becomes a maze. For those eyeing reversals, it's like navigating a storm. And for my friends playing the ranges, buying and selling becomes a guessing game. So, what's a trader to do? We watch, we wait. The trend might keep climbing, sketching new patterns for us to decipher, or we simply stay the course, nudging our trailing stop loss up by the week. Now, with eyes on a lofty new target of 18,800, I'm parked on the sidelines. It's feeling a bit top-heavy, and without a clear strategy to dive back in, I'm all for observing. Patience is a trader's virtue, especially in this game.
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by Timonrosso
S&P500 in 2020 & 2024. OR ARE YOU READY FOR A NEW ONE SKYFALL!?Due to recent publications by TradingView Team and many other TradingViewers I wonder, how strong people still believe in 4-years inflation/ disinflation credit cycle, with their eternal BTC-to-the-Moon expectations. Okkkay, Google. Let it be.. Let it be... Each coin has two sides. Just remembered, how many Covid19-talking people were there in the room a couple months before it's happened in early 2020. The main graph is comparison between SP500 4 years ago and in nowadays. Similar, or not? - Time will show! // This is the end Hold your breath and count to ten Feel the Earth move and then Hear my heart burst again For this is the end I've drowned and dreamt this moment So overdue, I owe them Swept away, I'm stolen Let the sky fall When it crumbles We will stand tall Face it all together Let the sky fall When it crumbles We will stand tall Face it all together At Skyfall At Skyfall // Not an investment advice
CME_MINI:ES1!
by PandorraResearch
Risk for Correction as Earnings Season EndsChecking the Monthly DPO chart of NASDAQ:NDX , it is important to be prepared for the risk of a correction soon after earnings season ends OR as the final week or so of reports come in. Often, the weakest reports are toward the end as there are aging technologies among these. Corrections are necessary for a long-term uptrend to sustain. Notice that there is more room to move up to the previous cycle peak of 2021. This new cycle peak can go higher as corporations continue to increase their revenues and earnings this year. Also note that the extreme angle of ascent of the trend in 1998-2000 is far more severe than what has formed so far in this new bull market.
NASDAQ:NDX
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader