US Inflation Trading Opportunities Ahead US Inflation Trading Opportunities Ahead
The next two days' worth of trading could turn out to be particularly interesting due to the sharp drop in CPI expected on (US time) Tuesday as well as the market being (over?) confident that the Fed is going to pause its rate hiking cycle on Wednesday.
According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are factoring in a 74% probability of no hike. The inflation data released on Tuesday could further support the argument that inflation is decreasing. The consensus among analysts is that the consumer price index will reveal a drop in inflation to a 4.1% annual rate in May, compared to 4.9% in the previous month.
A 74% chance means that stakes on the no-hike should be significant enough that if the market is wrong, a significant correction could be on the cards. A 74% chance is far from certain, and we might see a replay of what happened in the Canadian Dollar a week ago, where the market was confident that the BoC would continue its rate hike pause but was surprised when it came through with a 25bps hike.
Assets to watch will be US indices, US dollar pairs, and gold. Last week, the S&P 500 achieved a significant milestone by gaining 20% from its October low. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite has experienced an even more remarkable performance, soaring 33% from its lowest point in the past 52 weeks.
Optimism in these two indices might wane with inflation read above expectations (although the data is coming in too late to have a major impact on the Fed decision the following day).
US dollar trades against the GBP might be in play with UK-based economic data causing a bit of turmoil and uncertainty. The Pound has recently declined from its highest point in the past year, which aligns with a rise in the two-year bond yield, reaching its highest level since the market turbulence that followed Liz Truss's mini-budget announcement.
NASDAQ 100 CFD
NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 JUNE 12NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 JUNE 12
Significant Weakness observed on daily bar (Friday 09 June) as market is marked up on ultra low volume S>D bar.
If mark ups on low volume continues, tighten stops and don't chase longs. Prepare to look out for short opportunity.
Possible Scenarios:
1) Market continues to be marked up on low volume narrow spread up bars = tighten stops on longs / wait
2) When additional weakness emerges = Short on test and rejection of recent high / lower high
Price Reaction Levels
Short on Test and reject | Long on Test and Accept
16646 15269 14575
*Longer term: 13350 needs to be supported for long trend to be intact.
Price Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol up bar close off high = NTC weakness
Daily: 09 June ultra low volume S>D up bar
*NTC = Non-Trend Changing
Like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
*For education purpose only.
META Stock Price ActionThe bears have taken out the bulls recently, Meta stock might continue to fall using the FVG price action strategy, the next liquidity level seems to be near the 255 area. Banks are long META, long term seems bullish still on monthly chart.
NDX possible 5-wave impulseSimilar to my SPX idea, the NDX seems to be forming a 5-wave impulse off the back of the AI enthusiasm. I expect a bullish pullback to pull the index lower towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $14,000 which will flip from a resistance to a support. A break below $14,000 will allow the index to slide into the support range between $13,500 and $13,700. A break below the 50-day MA currently at $13,330 will invalidate the 5-wave impulse.
In terms of technical indicators, the daily RSI is heavily overbought which supports the notion of a pullback towards the support range. The daily MACD is holding a strong buy signal, but it is showing signs of rolling over.
nasdaq updateI was really waiting for the market to go from the minimum numbers to the correction of the E wave, but this wave has reached its maximum numbers, which shows that the next correction wave is more time-consuming, but there is great power in the next upward wave.
I think this week we will see maximum numbers in the index and there is at least 3 months of correction ahead. Although there is a high probability this will be
Continue until the end of 2023
$IWM, #RUTAMEX:IWM , the Russell 2000, experienced a significant move on Friday, June 2nd, accompanied by high trading volume. On the daily chart, it successfully broke out of its structure, indicating the next potential levels at $185-190. If it manages to surpass this range, it could potentially reach $200 and even $220. It is worth noting that there are several bullish setups observed in mid-cap stocks.
$TSLA, $SPY, $QQQ #NDX #SPXTSLA broke out of the consolidation phase, successfully backtested, and is currently in an uptrend. While we might anticipate a pullback at this point, the next target range is projected to be around $220-240, with an optimistic target of $300-320
NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 JUNE 05Continuation long from previous analysis was in order last week.
Minor weakness has appeared.
Possible Scenarios:
1) Continuation Long: Long on retracement. Down bars has to
be on lower volume.
2) Previous supply zone 15269
Exercise caution if you see climatic bars into this level. Market
may rotate to work out demand and supply.
Price Reaction Levels
Short on Test and reject | Long on Test and Accept
16646 15269 14575
*Longer term: 13350 needs to be supported for long trend
to be intact.
Price Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol narrower up bar close off high = NTC weakness
Daily: 19 May UT bar, ave vol= = potential weakness
*NTC = Non-Trend Changing
Like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
*For education purpose only.
Nasdaq short setup - 01-06-23 - debt ceiling The chart is self-explanatory, discending channel, weak support and triangle pattern, when NYSE open i expect a break to the downside.
NASDAQ: Overbought and in need of a technical pull-back.Nasdaq hit the 1.236 Fibonacci extension which was our target on the last call we gave and has turned overbought on the 1D time frame (RSI = 71.555, MACD = 292.250, ADX = 40.204). We are expecting a pull back to at least the 1D MA50 and the HL trend line. The most optimal buy signal will be when the 1D RSI touches its HL trend line. Next long term target is R1 and the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (TP = 15,300).
Prior idea:
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NDX Next MoveSo i mixed this one with volume + Gann box (volume calculated from other platform)
interstingly they are match
they say the same thing levels and direction movements
this is it guys
time will the tale i just told you, you will see.
NASDAG BUYThere is a high possibility that the NASDAQ will rally as the descending channel is broken and the side flag is broken. What do you think, my friends?!
Nasdaq -> Massively Bullish RallyHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
On the weekly timeframe you can see that nas100 is actually approaching a quite obvious previous weekly structure area which is now acting as resistance at the $15.000 level.
You can also see that over the past couple of weeks, nas100 had a massively bullish rally and we are now a little bit overextended towards the upside, so I am now just waiting for a deeper push into the zone and then I do expect a short term rejection towards the downside.
On the daily timeframe you can also see that we are just rallying towards the upside without any correction, so I am now just waiting for some bearish rejection before I then do expect a short term drop also on the daily timeframe.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
NAS100 Top-down analysisHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
US 100Stoch RSI getting very overbought. But the diagonal is missing the 5th. I think we have a push above 14,000-14,300 in some mini parabolic pump move then roll over into either Wave b or wave 2
NDX are you rdy for long ?🧨🧨👌Nasdaq index, did you know that this index has an upward trend in the past two weeks? Well, interestingly, Bitcoin also has and I announced this in my analysis.
Well, how far the index should go up, you should be careful, I won't say here if it goes up.
Two more targets will not be seen, the first target is 15265.42, the index will go up to this price.
Our second target is 16607.19. I am giving you this information based on the method of dirty banks, so don't forget that this index is bullish to see these targets.
Nasdaq is forming a Rising Wedge pattern!!!It seems that the Nasdaq is forming a Rising Wedge pattern near the 🔴 resistance zone($ 14,060-$ 13,610) 🔴.
I expect the Nasdaq to start falling after touching the upper line of the rising wedge pattern and the resistance zone. Nasdaq's falling target could be the next 🟢 support zone($ 12,470-$ 12,040) 🟢.
Nasdaq 100 Index Analyze (NDXUSD), Daily time frame⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position that you want to open).
Please follow your strategy, this is just my Idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
NDX Swing ShortNasdaq has been rallying hard the past few weeks, thanks to tech rally due to recent growth opportunities provided by rise of AI.
But Nasdaq is reaching significant levels both from S/R perspective and market structure.
1.We are reaching the top edge of the parallel channel
2.We are at PRZ of couple of harmonics (Cypher and BAT).
3. Also, within very close proximity of the top of rising wedge.
Keep a close watch on top tech stocks (Microsoft and Nvidia) Stocks, these have been the primary reasons for a rally in NDX, if these stocks start to fall, so will NDX.
Another reason for anticipating down weeks and months in NDX is due to Breakout in DXY which is -0.81 correlated to NDX. Which means 80% of the time NDX moves opposite to DXY.
To read my DXY analysis, go over the links below.
NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 22 May WeekScenario1 breakout offered a fantastic week.
Hope you had joined in the ride. Target 13740 hit, and AR tested.
Possible Scenarios:
1) Continuation Long Strategy: Long on retracement. Price has to
come down on low volume
2) Breakout failure: If there is strong volume on down move,
it may signify a yet to be completed rotation, with more potential for
downside (zone 13740 - 10710)
Price Reaction Levels
Short on Test and reject | Long on Test and Accept
15269 13740-13913
13350 12950
Price Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol up bar close off high = potential weakness
Daily: 19 May UT bar, ave vol= = potential weakness
Like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
*For education purpose only.
ALARM!!!MAJOR DIVERGENCE
USD up, Yields and Bonds down, Nasdaq up
Major corrective move likely exit all positions this is not a drill, I repeat this is NOT a drill.
NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 15 May WeekCME_MINI:NQ1!
Last week 1 trade done at short from rotation high, stopped out,
we will be looking at possible senarios below:
1) Breakout success: Price comes down on lower volume, finds support,
for a Test and Accept long. Nearest target is 13740.
2) Breakout Failure: Price rejected at higher prices, for a test and
reject short, back into rotation area.
Note: If you see higher lows being formed in the rotation area, this may
be followed by a successful break, and market will
attempt 13740. Draw your trendlines to observe.
Price Reaction Levels
Short on Test and reject | Long on Test and Accept
15186 13740 13350
12936 12130
Price Volume Analysis:
Weekly: No Demand narrower spread up bar close off high = Weakness
Daily: Higher bullish volume observed, close off high = weakness
Like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
*For education purpose only.
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 MAY 08NQ scenario 4, rotational trade yielded 470pts from 3 trades.
Test and Reject/Accept setups consistently offers low risk trades.
NQ was in rotation for a month now.
Friday saw a low volume mark up, and could be trapping longs.
Previous scenario planning remains.
Given the rotation has progressed thus far, inexperienced traders should just wait.
CAPS FOR EMPHASIS-MY TENDENCY TO TRADE SCENARIO4 WILL NOW BE DIMINISHED.
Possible scenarios:
1) Market stuck in a 250pt range, wait till supply/demand is resolved
Then:
2) Breakout of upper boundary to test 13740 = long at support of upper boundary of range
3) Breakdown of lower boundary of range = Short on rejection of 12950
4) The longer the rotation, the riskier will be rotational trade.
Long on support between 12950-13040 | Short on rejection between 13350-13212
Volume Analysis:
Friday's mark up on average volume, with close away from the high, is weakness on the bar.
Price reaction levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
14361 13740 13350
13316 12950 10710 - 11068
Remember to Like and Follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week ahead.
*For educational purpose only.
BIGGEST ECONOMIC CONTRACTION OF A LIFETIMEThe comparisons to the beginning of dot com are uncanny.
I compared countless indicators and the current price action is identical to the dot com beginning.
Additionally, the duration of the yield curve inversion is identical and the % of the drop is identical, almost to the decimal.
The current contraction took 5x as long to reach this point as compared with the dot com.
The dot com contraction took 2.3 years to hit bottom from the identified mark.
Scaling the time, this correction could take 10 years (5 x 2) to reach bottom.
We've enjoyed 15 years of a bull market (with some bumps along the road).
Now, we are facing the most inverted yield curve in 40 + years.
Time for the market to pay the piper.
I fear this will be a recession we will share with our children in 20 years
We are only at the start of this.
