NDQ - Are We Headed for Lower...As a trader of the markets you always have to be prepared for black swan events that can become a fork in the road.
Are we at a fork? I think there is real potential for that to be the case.
If you look at my recent ideas there is a common theme. I'm expecting higher bond yields, a stronger dollar, and weaker gold prices.
What does this mean for stocks... Conventional wisdom would suggest lower stock prices.
This is my take on where prices are headed... This pattern breaks down essentially to a double ZigZag.
Longer term view:
Ndxshort
ES1!: RALLIES & FALLS / UPDATE / POINT OF CONTROL: 4000 & 3950DESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a MACRO analysis of ES1! a future INDEX on the daily timeframe.
POINTS:
1. Deviation of 250 points would justify placement of SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKETS.
2. Pennant Formation
3. Current CORRECTION FALL is roughly 5.55% falling short by nearly 5% when compared to other CORRECTION PHASES.
RSI: Since the inception of the current bear market price action has only held one time when RSI is at a PIVOT POINT and ready to enter OVERSOLD TERRITORY.
MACD: If MACD is pulled into OVERSOLD territory or anywhere past it's MEDIAN OF 0.00. This will be a strong indicator that price action will fail to hold onto its current channel of 4050 - 3800. And would essentially mean price action will retest past channel of 3800 - 3550.
POINT OF CONTROL: Price action must remain above LEVEL 1 SUPPORT of 4000 & LEVEL 2 SUPPORT of 3950.
SCENARIO #1: In a BULLISH scenario we would come to see price action bounce at 3950 then followed by a move toward 4150 before breaking pennant formation. (Not the safest bet since this scenario would VIOLATE RSI'S TREND FROM THE PAST YEAR)
SCENARIO #2: In a BEARISH scenario we come to see a break below 3950 that would leave to PRICE ACTION not seeing support until 3800. (This would fall in line with what current indicators are signaling)
FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:ES1!
NDQ/DJI - Short; Significant Statistical Arbitrage opportunity!While the NDQ/DJI, itself, represents a significant trade opportunity here, even more notably, a number of the index components display remarkably skewed "Greeks"! (For example, APPL-GOOGL, CAT-PEP, TSLA-BA, etc..) E.g., It is a rather strait forward process - at these levels - to assemble baskets of stocks (Long) in each index (Short) with rather juicy, +30%-40% near term (<7 months!) profit targets.
All this is a strait forward process - once one starts looking :-)
p.s. Will provide ideas for some of these stock baskets if/as time allows.
NDX Short AgainIt's a beautiful thing. The charts never lie.
When things start to look as wild as this week's price-action, it is a good idea to look for some kind of "tell". These kinds of moves are like an irresistible vortex for the FOMO crowd and the next thing you know we are down 20%. Is there a case for a deep(er) pullback in the mighty Nasdaq? We will just have to see how price behaves over the coming days...
God bless!
Acts 20:22 - 24
NQ short term bounce wolfe wave setup identifiedThere is a wolfe wave setup on the 78 min time frame. The projected target is calculated by extending a linear line between pivot 1 and 4 and projecting the line. This is represented as the green perforated line, as shown in the chart. The projected target is 11500 which coincides with the 6 day ma. The ETA is defined by identifying the apex of the wolfe wave and projecting a vertical line toward the green perforated projection line which is the line that extends from left to right.
NDX Daily Bearish SignalsWe have a downtrend within a downtrend, the inception of bearish signals.
The NDX printed a shooting star candlestick yesterday as a rejection from EMA10.
The RSI has gone bearish and the QStick indicator as well.
The feeling is that it should be mild yet, we are seeing a strong crash ahead.
Maybe even a 10 percent drop in a matter of days.
Just hoping that we are wrong.
Namaste.
S&P500 For the first time since the COVID sell off the SP:SPX closed the WEEK below the 200 SMA at 3583 points, for the previous three weeks the index was trying to test the support of the 200 SMA but after the heavy selling pressure in the other indexes TVC:DJI NASDAQ:IXIC and NASDAQ:NDX .
SP:SPX has broken the support to the downside and most of the stocks are closing at the lowest prices after breaking most of the medium and long-term supports. on the other hand, the indicators are confirming the same view as the RSI is below its moving average at 36 level, also the stochastic is still giving sell and weakness signals.
A small rebound is expected as a correction in the very short term closing the long positions, and opening short positions are recommended.
NASDAQ Collapse - Covid Lows in PlayThe Nasdaq looks to be failing, after this week's short squeeze.
I would be careful with this thing. Lots of wild moves over the last 24 hours, with the primary signal being cryptocurrency popping up. These moves will trap a lot of traders.
Be careful out there!
God Bless!
Luke 5:11