Ndxshort
SHORT - Nasdaq 100This one is fairly simple, on a 2 week chart the NDX has had 8 consecutive up candles where each has had its close greater than its open. This has only happened a handle full of times and holding this short for 3 candles has yielded these results in the NDX going back to 1985. The other times where there has been this sort of move has been highlighted with a white rectangle so feel free to scroll back on the chart to see :)
1999-02-01: Profit = +5.54 % | Run-up = +12.33 % | Drawdown = -1.11 %
2012-04-09: Profit = +8.94 % | Run-up = +9.22 % | Drawdown = -1.13 %
2019-04-15: Profit = +4.05 % | Run-up = +4.84 % | Drawdown = -2.90 %
2020-01-21: Profit = +6.29 % | Run-up = +11.06 % | Drawdown = -6.46 %
Keeping in mind that holding for 3 two week candles is 6 weeks so about a month and a half. Given how volatile the markets have been the drawdown for this position may likely exceed the maximum historical drawdown of -6.46% so be careful when sizing a position especially when using any type of leverage.
The estimated profit is just a straight average of the historical trades above so approximately 9-9.50% which would put NDX around 9500-9600. Still this is a time based exit so 3 candles but it is always useful knowing where the trade could end up just in-case you want to set a profit target.
This trade was actually set to open at today's open however fortunately it was an up day. Official short entry would be 10,487.10. So anything above or around it is swell.
QQQ Short after Earnings Profit Taking Ensues TomorrowQQQ will likely see a large pullback when the stimulus bill that is priced in does not pass as quickly as expected. It would be a perfect time to open short positions over the weekend...ya I said that, never thought I would say that. I suspect this MM pump on earnings for tech stocks will be a great exit point for those in power/insiders. I expect a healthy 15% pull back, more stimulus approved after the recess, because republicans always play nicer when the market is dropping (and MM wants some more free money, right). At that point I will go long with calls that are dated 1/15/21 and 2022. Strike Price 300-325, as I would suspect we go into a tech crazy bubble in the next year or two.
Not financial advice, but I will likely open some short positions/buy puts dated 8/21 that are at the money or 9/18 out of the money.
Plus take a look at the top of the SP 500 during the dot com bubble...the similarities are stricking
imgur.com
US jobless claims increased 1.42 million in the last weekAbout 30 Million Workers Are Collecting Jobless Benefits.
The number of new claims for unemployment benefit jumped last month to 1.4m. That’s worse than expected and the first week-on-week rise for four months.
We can expect a reflection of today`s news in the overvalued stock market.
Sell-off accelerates also because of escalating US-China tensions and faltering economic recovery.
The indicators show a sell recommendation. We are also in an overbought area.
If you are interested to test some amazing buy and sell indicators, which give the signal at the beginning of the candle, not at the end of it, just leave me a message.
EXIT ALL STOCK MARKETSBefore the end of 2020 the mega crash of stock markets will be imminent.(If Tom Demark counts 9(max))
In 2000 bubble crash was 83%. This time MMA200 will be broken if the same percentage loss happens.
Jump on to limited assets: XAU, XAG, BTC
Further reading & watching:
www.cnbc.com
www.youtube.com
VXN NOT CONFIRMING RISE IN NASDAQ SINCE MID-DECComparison of INVERTED VXN to NASDAQ 100 Futures (NAS100USD).
As can see since mid-Dec NASDAQ 100 has been making higher highs WHILE VXN HAS BEEN MAKING HIGHER LOWS (INVERTED VXN ABOVE MAKING LOWER HIGHS).
This is a MASSIVE BEARISH Divergence for the NASDAQ that is not confirming the rise in the NASDAQ100 rallies and a huge red flag that the NASDAQ is due for a massive drop.
This is in line with my calls for drop in the S&P and an explosive rise in US Dollar Index (DXY) as well as coming explosion higher in VIX (see next coming post) as well as explosion higher in VXN coming.
See links below to S&P and Dollar Index Elliotwave counts.
VIX Elliot wave count and projections coming next.
RISK OFF is coming to the markets in a major way soon.
Stay tuned for the VIX count.
Cheers!
Cyrus
NASDAQ at the end of its bull run ? WATCH OUT FOR 9.730$Here is my thought, we might be seeing a trend reversal on the nasdaq, to be confirmed on monday by :
- An opening much lower than friday's close creating a weekly gap,
- The definite crossing of the MA20 (which has been struck on friday),
- Crossing of 1H MA200 and 4H MA50,
- Crossing of daily RSI 50 value,
- Breaking the dotted pink support line.
Next supports are
- 9500$ (Fib .236 + daily MA50)
- 8900$ (Fib .382)
- 8500$ (Fib .5 + daily MA200).
8.500$ is my objective for now.
Stop loss : 10.150$
Short NasdaqThis market is manipulated to the point of being ludicrous.
When individual stocks are still being bought at P/Es well over 20 and RSIs approaching 80, it is no longer a market in which participants can believe.
Let's see...
Ongoing pandemic that is crippling both supply and demand globally? ✅
Nearly 50 million unemployed over the past 10 weeks? ✅
The worst, most widespread and prolonged civil unrest since the 1960s? ✅
Increasing tensions between the US and China? ✅
Stocks reaching unprecedented valuations? ✅
The contrast between the economy and the stock market has never been this stark before. Despite the worst economy in 100 years, stocks have soared over the past 2.5 months. Tesla is up 400% over the past year and has more than doubled in value YTD. Amazon has a P/E over 100. The Nasdaq is on the cusp on reaching new ATHs.
The Fed was desperate to prevent the coronavirus from popping the everything bubble, and their overreaction has now reinflated that bubble to new heights. This is NOT going to end well.
NDX / BTCJust noticing how the 2 have similar structures.
BTC is currently in a falling bull horn which implies $4500 incoming.
But NDX has a smaller correction coming to the 618.
But when the NDX began its rising wedge B4 the crash BTC formed this bull horn, but looks like both have a dump coming B4 another move up.
SOLD at Resistance 9300$ ( BIG CORRECTION COMING DAYS)Stock Pullback completed and coming weeks we will see a new round of sell-off.
All explanation on the chart please have a look entry
🛑SUPPORT/RESISTANCE
✅S1= 9000
✅S2=8400
✴️R1=9300
✴️R2=9700
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Nasdaq 100 CFD (4H) / Bullish Elliott Wave CountThe bullish count could be slammed if the S&P follows its red path. The relationship between NDX and SPX has been a bit strange since the bottom with NDX seemingly leading the SPX. In case of a systemic risk or market event, everything follows the VIX and SPX so beware.