NASDAQ One last leg down or break above the 1D MA50?Nasdaq (NDX) is extending the Channel Down that started on the August 16 2022 High, making a Lower Low yesterday. With the assistance of the 1D RSI, we have spotted a recurring pattern that has already played out two times during this Bear Cycle since the start of the year and is currently forming the third one.
As you see, every such Lower Low sequence, made a bottom when the 1D RSI made a Low at the same level as the previous one. It is shown that the RSI has a somewhat triple bottom before the price rebounds. Right now the RSI is approaching the 30.000 level where the September 30 Low was made. The bottom of the previous Lower Low sequence was made on June 16 on the -0.5 Fibonacci extension from the March 15 Low. If each Low is a Fib level higher then the current one could be either on the -0.382, which is just below the 1W MA300 (yellow trend-line) or the -0.236 (just above the 10000 mark). Either way, the buy signal is given when the RSI hits 30.000.
It is not unlikely though to see a rebound without dipping that low as the sequence is almost completed and we saw a bullish reaction yesterday to the CPI. So if the index breaks above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) next, we can see a bullish extension towards the 1W MA100 (grey trend-line), which is the current Resistance as it has provided the last two rejection on August 16 and May 05.
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NASDAQ Repeating the April-May fractal and how it can be avoidedNasdaq has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the short-term High of August 16 that was rejected on the 1W MA100 (gray trend-line). The minor rise at the start of the week has turned sideways as it approached the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel and the market prepares for the Nonfarm Payrolls today.
Based also on the 1D RSI structure, this pattern resembles so far the April - May Channel Down. As long as the price remained below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), it made a Lower Low on June 16 before gradually starting to recover and eventually break above the 1D MA50 and towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
As a result, we may be looking for a Lower Low near the 1W MA300 (yellow trend-line), now that the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) broke. A closing above the 1D MA50 should be taken as a bullish break-out signal on the short-term targeting the 1D MA200 and 1W MA100. Only a weekly closing above the 1W MA100 can be considered as an attempt to shift the long-term trend from bearish to bullish.
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NASDAQ Testing the 1W MA200. Is it on the brink of collapse?------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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This is the Nasdaq index (NDX) on the 1W time-frame, where it hit the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), for the first time since July 2010! Coupled with the 1W MACD just forming a Bearish Cross in the previous week, inevitably similarities emerge with the 2008 Housing Crisis.
And rightly so as until now, the 2022 correction has been very similar to October 2007 - July 2008. As you see after the index started falling initially, the price rebound at (or very close to in the case of 2022) the 1W MA200. The subsequent rebound, hit (or in the case of 2022 nearly hit) the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which in turn rejected the uptrend and turned the trend downwards again towards the 1W MA200.
It would appear that we are at this important level now where in July 2008 the 1W MA200 provided one last rebound before one final rejection on the 1W MA50 that on September 2008 broke below the 1W MA200 finally and caused a -42% collapse. Notice that the 1W Death Cross (MA50 crossing below the MA200), though a bearish pattern, it was formed right at the bottom of the Cear Cycle. Both then and now the 1W RSI was trading under Lower Highs, which when broke, signalled the start of the recovery and the new Bull Cycle. Also the 1W MACD took a Bearish - Bullish - Bearish Cross sequence before the -42% collapse.
What this chart shows is that the emphasis should be on the current test of the 1W MA200. A trend-line tested three times since February 2010 and provided extremely strong Bull Phases, with COVID crash (March 2020) being the most recent. A break below it, could initiate a 2008 type collapse, with a -40% from current levels placing the target around the COVID March 2020 Low (6650). On the other hand, it shows that the 1W MA50 is the current Resistance and if broken first (after it failed this August), it could invalidate the extension of the Bear Market and save the day for stocks.
What do you think will happen next?
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NASDAQ Neutral so far. See which break-outs to trade.The Nasdaq Index (NDX) staged a fair rebound yesterday on a Lower Lows trend-line that started on the September 01 Low. Today we see an early rejection on the futures market, which from one side is expected as the market is preparing for Wednesday's Fed Rate Decision. The 4H RSI however has been on Higher Lows since August 22, staging a Bullish Divergence.
The last similar Divergence was spotted during the May 12 - 20 Lower Lows. When the index broke above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) for the second time, it targeted the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
As a result, our short-term plan is to wait for either that 4H MA50 break-out and target the 4H MA200 or the Lower Lows break-out and target the 1W MA200 (red trend-line). As a side-note, notice how the index has been trading on symmetrical Lower Highs as well (Aug 26 and Sep 13), thus we can view the price action as a Channel Down. The 4H MA200 (our bullish target) is exactly at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of that Channel Down.
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NASDAQ Thinly supported. Needs a 1D MA50 break to avoid sell-offThe Nasdaq (NDX) index had a strong rejection these past 4 weeks exactly on the level we projected on our idea on August 04:
Right now it is trading below both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which were its short-term Support levels and have now turned into Resistances as each have rejected upwards break-out attempts at least once.
Being on the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level and based on the RSI (1W time-frame), which just hit its MA line (yellow), NDX appears to be in a similar level its was during April 11 - 20. This consolidation led lower when its Support broke and dropped first to the previous Low (0.0 Fib) and then to Lower Lows on the -0.382 and -0.5 Fibs respectively. As a result, if the current Support breaks, we expect the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) to be tested, which is slightly above the 11040 Lot of June 16 and depending on the market conditions at the time (which we will surely update on), the 1W MA300 (yellow trend-line), which is slightly above the -0.382 Fib.
On the bullish case, if the price breaks above the 1D MA50, consider it a buy break-out signal and target the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
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NDX 100Honestly thinking we are in a strong downtrend here until mid terms are over, after that I would expect we start w3 on the HTF. Leading the tech sector into the final 5th wave into 2023.
NASDAQ hit a Support cluster. Trading scenarios for September.The Nasdaq (NDX) index had a strong rejection these past 2 weeks exactly on the level we projected on our idea on August 04:
As you see, that level was the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement level and the Resistance made from the May 05 High, which we predicted based on the symmetrical evidence with the February - March fractal. So far this has been working out perfectly, I can add that the rejection also took place exactly on the 1W MA100 (grey trend-line) and just shy off the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
This 2-week pull-back hit on Friday the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and today the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This is an important Support cluster, assisted further by the Higher Lows trend-line that started on the June 16 Low.
What favors the bearish case is certainly the fact that the price got rejected on the 1W MA100 that was previously a Support (February 24, March 14) but is now establishing itself as a Resistance (May 05, August 16) and the inability to break above the 1D MA200, which is where the price was rejected on March 30. Those are in favor of the sequence continuing to repeat the Feb-March fractal, which sold-off to a new Lower Low.
The bullish case in however still backed up by the MACD Bullish Cross on the 1W time-frame that took place on July 22, which didn't happen previously in March or April. That strengthens further the 1D MA50/100 and June Higher Lows Support cluster. As long as that holds (staying above the now green Ichimoku Cloud), it should be more likely to retest the 1W MA100/ 1D MA200 Resistance Zone. As mentioned before, a candle close above that Resistance Zone should be enough to shift the long-term sentiment from bearish to bullish.
A close below the Higher Lows though, should deliver a test of the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), which is the current long-term Support and if also broken, then the 1W MA300 (yellow trend-line).
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NASDAQ The Put/Call Ratio shows it's time to buy stocks NOW!This is another stock index long-term analysis and this time our focus is on the Nasdaq (NDX). For better illustration we are displaying the Nasdaq as a line instead of candles (black trend-line) and the Put/ Call Ratio (blue trend-line) on the 1W time-frame.
First let's explain what this ratio is. Basically it is the number of put options divided by the number of call options. This is an indicator that essentially illustrates the pessimism/ optimism in the market, what market participants (investors, traders, funds etc) feel is going to happen in the (near at least) future. When it is rising it means that there is a lot of pessimism and more people are betting on the downside and when it falls it illustrates that more people expect an upside.
For this analysis we've put the MA20 of the Put/ Call Ratio (PCR) as it filters the noise more efficiently. As you see, since the October 10 2011 High, every PCR peak is made on a Lower Highs trend-line (dashed line) and the price gets rejected. When that pull-back happens, it effectively gives us a confirmed signal to buy stocks. This time the peak on the Lower Highs trend-line took place on the June 13 candle and as you see it turned out to be the most optimal place to buy as the index rose aggressively. The current rise though on the PCR is naturally translated into a Nasdaq pull-back put since the 2009 financial crisis, this happened most of the times and didn't affect the long-term bullish trend.
So will you take advantage of this pull-back?
P.S. Because the chart has added elements (PCR, Nasdaq) plotted that are not stable on the axis, it may appear distorted based on your screen's/ browser dimensions. The original looks like this below, so if yours doesn't, adjust the vertical/ horizontal axis in order to make it look like this and better understand what is illustrated:
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NASDAQ the 2Y yield and Interest RateThe Nasdaq index (NDX) has been on a strong rally since the mid June bottom but this week's pull-back is having a good part of investors worried. Well not without good reason as this is taking place after breaking its All Time High Lower Highs trend-line and but not its 1D MA200. However it may be a correction attributed to profit taking and this analysis will address that in relation to the US02Y (2 year bond yield illustrated in orange) and the Fed's Interest Rate (black trend-line).
As you see, the US02Y can be a leading indicator to what the Fed policy may be. In recent tightening Cycles, more particularly in November 2018, when the US02Y started to reverse downwards, it was an early indication that the Interest Rate would peak. Indeed, the monetary tightening policy turned flat and in a few months changed to monetary easing again, falling sharply downwards. The Nasdaq bottomed a little after the US02Y started falling.
This time, the mid June rally started just after the first sharp drop on the US02Y and following the yields' volatility, gave fuel to this sharp two month rise. At the same time the Interest Rate continues to rise but the Fed have issued a very supportive tone in their last meeting regarding the pace of tightening, a move that is obvious calmed the markets more than enough.
I want to focus on the similarities of these two corrections (2018 and 2022). In both cases, Nasdaq bottomed right after breaking its 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, while holding the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) as the long-term Support.
Do you think this time is different or a similar 2019 rally will follow?
P.S. Because the chart has the added elements of the US02Y and Interest Rate plotted and are not constant, it may appear distorted based on your screen's/ browser dimensions. The original looks like this below, so if yours doesn't, adjust the vertical/ horizontal axis in order to make it look like this and better understand what is illustrated:
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NASDAQ close to entering back to the bull marketNasdaq (NDX) extended the uptrend following the two clear break-out buy signals given by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1W MACD Bullish Cross, as we outlined on our previous analysis 3 weeks ago:
Perhaps the most important development since then is the closing above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) which last time rejected the price (March 29) and formed a Lower High on the long-term Channel Down. This doesn't turn the trend bullish long-term. It remains bearish unless we break above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which isn't that far off. It was that and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (13666 currently) that along with the 1D MA100 rejected the uptrend on the previous Lower High.
As a result a sell there with a tight SL on the 1D MA200 can be justified, targeting the 1D MA50 on the short-term. On the other hand, a close above the 1D MA200 should be considered a buy break-out signal, which can target the 15300 March 29 High.
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NASDAQ Generational Buy Opportunity. The 14 year Channel held.Nasdaq (NDX) is coming off a (near) hit on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) last month and the rebound is now closer than ever to test the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) for the first time since April 05, where it was emphatically rejected. This is something that we outlined on our previous NDX analysis that was on the 1D time-frame:
This time we present an analysis based on the 1W time-frame and longer-term parameters as the index not only prepares for this quarterly bullish break-out but with its current monthly rally it holds historic Support levels.
First of all, as the chart shows, the index has been trading upwards (on the log scale) within a 14 year Channel since the 2008/09 Subprime Mortgage (housing) Crisis. As mentioned, it held the 1W MA200 which has never been crossed below since the weekly candle of June 28 2010, but as you see it formed a clear Bullish Cross on the 1W MACD. We've discussed the importance of such crosses in previous posts but for Nasdaq in particular, when that took place around the 0.0 MACD mean (especially from the 2018 volatility period and after), it has been a tremendous buy opportunity, especially when coupled with a break above the 1D MA100.
We can therefore claim that a 1D MA100 break is the last Bullish Confirmation signal on a multi-year scale that validates the start of the near rally within the 14 year Channel, even though some would argue that technically the last Resistance to beat would be the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line)/ 1D MA200 cluster. But for this long-term model, the 1D MA100 seems good enough for a confirmation signal.
For illustration purposes, I've plotted every candle series that after approaching the 1W MA200, broke above the 1D MA100 and (naturally) kick-started a rally (including of course that after the 2009 bottom). It is interesting to see that if repeated, all of them can make an All Time High (before correcting) much above the previous market High, with the exception of the shortest 2019 rally, which would stop just above the previous All Time High.
Note that those are for projection purposes for sure and nothing more as the index may follow a completely different path this time, but interesting as illustrations indeed. Do you think the Channel will hold and guide the price to new ATH?
P.S. As always on long-term log Channels, we've incorporated the -0.236 and 1.236 extremes, which in the case of Nasdaq match almost perfectly the March 2020 (irregular) Black Swan event that broke for just one week below the Channel.
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NDX | Trading at ResistanceNDX 100 is Trading at resistance and the short retracement is possible but seems Bullish in the long term
Note: Trade at your own Risk!
NASDAQ 1W MACD Bullish Cross and 1D MA50 break-outThe Nasdaq (NDX) index is posting today a full 1D candle above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since April 08. We are still inside the long-term Channel Down formation that started at the beginning of the year but with the 1W MACD making a Bullish Cross for the first time since November 2021, while the price has been on Higher Lows for a full month, there are more probabilities to be seeing the start of a long-term trend reversal.
On the short-term we should approach this in terms of MA break-outs. Right now the first target is the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which sits naturally at the top of the Channel Down and rejected the price on the last Lower High in April 04.
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NASDAQ: BULLISH FALLING WEDGE PATTERN.Hello traders, today I am gonna share a NASDAQ update with you guys. This is my first ever update on NASDAQ and I am super excited to share this valuable information with you all.
Timeframe: 1 Day.
Description: Nasdaq is the second-largest stock exchange in the world. Nasdaq, which is an acronym for the National Association of Securities Dealers Automatic Quotation System, was established in 1971. The US-based exchange is also the first-ever electronic stock market in the world.
Update: Back in Nov 2021, when NASDAQ hit its ATH at 16767, we saw some drastic fall on NASDAQ. A straight -33.6% drop in the last seven and half months. NASDAQ has been under the falling wedge pattern for a while and in the recent move when NASDAQ got rejected from the resistance level of 12200 (Lower High), it did not make any lower low level, rather the candle closed above the previous lower low level (11068). This could be a sign of trend reversal where the falling wedge will turn into a rising wedge pattern.
RSI: The RSI on NASDAQ has been below the level of 50 for quite a while. It has been constantly getting rejected from the middle level of the RSI keeping NASDAQ under the oversold area.
Conclusion: If NASDAQ manages to reverse the trend then I expect a bullish rally to start soon. I am expecting a 60% rally if NASDAQ breaks above the resistance level. The yellow-colored lower trendline will be the invalidation point for NASDAQ.
Note: This chart is completely based on technical analysis. It is not a piece of financial advice. So, do your own research before investing.
What are your views on NASDAQ? Do you think NASDAQ is ready to make a bullish rally? Let me know your thoughts in the comments.
I hope this idea will be helpful to you. If you agree with this idea then do like and comment.
Thank you.
NDX The Nasdaq reached a good correctional areas for buying, in addition to touching the bottom of the descending corrective channel.
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NASDAQ On a critical 1D MA50 test. Act depending on candle closeNasdaq (NDX) continues to trade within the long-term Channel Down that has helped us identify the trend and take low risk/ high reward trades over the past few months. Our position hasn't changed since our previous update 10 days ago:
The bottom and new Lower Low of the Channel was correctly spotted, and now the price is about to test the critical 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). In fact today's flat-red candle could be the same as the rejection one on March 21. A clear 1D candle close above it, should be enough to test the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) which was our medium-term target originally. Failure to do so can alter the similarities with the March fractal and push the price to the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), so in that case be quick to take profits if you followed us and bought on that bottom.
As mentioned previously, a 1D candle close above the Lower Highs (top) trend-line of the Channel Down should be treated as a buy break-out signal with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as the target. Similarly, with the 1W MA200 being a significant multi-year Support, a weekly closing below it should target the 1W MA300 (yellow trend-line, scroll chart to see it below).
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NASDAQ Sideways but still off the top of the Channel DownNasdaq (NDX) has been trading sideways since May 30. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is right above with the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) being roughly around the Lower Highs (top) trend-line of the Channel Down.
Based on our previous analysis 2 weeks ago, the index was on a W pattern aiming at the Resistance as part of the Lower Highs formation:
So far so good if you took that buy, you may start taking profit at will. The reason is that only a break above the 1D MA100 can justify further buying and that's only to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which last time rejected the uptrend from March 29 to April 05. Until the Lower Highs break, the trend is bearish towards the 11500 Support. A confirmed sell if you are looking for a lower risk factor, would be when the MACD makes a Bearish Cross.
As for a long-term bullish reversal only a weekly candle closing above the 15300 March 29 High can sustain it.
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NDX Collapse ScenarioUsing Fib circles to plot how price falls
Both corrections are around -80%
A fall like this allows for a third touch on the up channel that is apparent
Bars pattern placed (red) is just my thoughts of how price could act if this scenario occurs
NASDAQ It is now or never for tech.Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a Falling Wedge since its All Time Highs and contrary to the last analysis, it broke the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) and almost hit the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Falling Wedge.
As long as this holds, we can expect a rebound towards the Lower Highs trend-line (top) of the Wedge and more specifically the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which formed the previous Lower High and is currently around 14300. Notice how potentially, it could meet with the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) there. The 1D RSI seems to be bouncing off the Pivot.
If on the other hand the Lower Lows trend-line breaks, the next Support level is the 12200 low of March 05 2021 but we doubt it will hold on panic selling and the hidden targets will be the -0.236 and -0.382 Fib extension at around 12115 and 11745 respectively.
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NDX W-Shaped RecoveryI think we might see the end of the war soon.
Russia says the first phase of its “military operation” in Ukraine is mostly complete.
I am considering a W-Shaped Recovery on NDX and a price target of $15670.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NASDAQ Still bearish despite the RSI break-outNasdaq has been trading within a Channel Down since the January 24 Low. The index is approaching today the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel and will remain bearish, unless it breaks above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which comfortably sits just above the top of the Channel. That should target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which trends just below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
If the price is rejected though at the top of the Channel Down or on the 1D MA50, expect a re-test of the 12930 Support and if broken the -0.236 Fibonacci extension. It has to be said though that the 1D RSI broke yesterday above the Lower Highs trend-line since November 04. That is the first bullish sign since the correction started.
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NASDAQ changing channel bands for the next 10 years?This is Nasdaq on the 1M time-frame since the recovery from the sub-prime mortgage crisis was set in motion in 2010.
As shown, the index has been trading within a Channel Up (log chart) from 2010 until mid 2020. Then in July 2020, it appears that NDX switched bands to one zone higher, illustrated perfectly by using the Fibonacci Channel extensions. As you see, since July 2020, the Fib 1.0 level which was previously the Resistance (top/ Higher Highs trend-line) of the former 2010 - 2020 Channel, has turned into a Support (bottom/ Higher Lows trend-line), and is being currently tested by the current 1M candle of February.
Every such Channel bottom test, has been a unique long-term buy opportunity during these +10 years. With the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) rising rapidly towards the 1.0 Fib level, do you think that will turn into a Support for the next 10 years? Based on this pattern, that looks like the most probable scenario.
P.S. Check also the very consistent Resistance and Support levels on the RSI.
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