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Neckline

UPST - will it succeed in breaking up?UPST formed a double bottom base over the last 6 months with a horizontal neckline at 26 The odds of a successful breakup has increased this time owing to the overall market strength. A daily CLOSE above could be significant as it has not been able to so for the past 6 months. Other factors increasing optimism (of a successful break in the near future) is some strong volume accumulation since it's earnings beat on 10th May, gapping up strongly and only partially filled before propelling higher. Most likely this is a breakaway gap - signifying trend reversal (ie, from down to up) that will not be filled anytime soon. Also, it's 200 day moving average has already flattened out and the stock is now trading well above it. Bear in mind that stocks priced below $50 could have a lot more volatility on it's daily movement (both ways) and trailing stops need to cater for that. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NASDAQ:UPSTLong
by Juliac
PLTR - breaking out from base PLTR had been basing in the past 1 year and is now attempting to break out above the neckline @ 11.62. During this basing, there were some strong volume accumulation in Feb and then again in May (both times earnings inspired). A breakup on strong volume is always desirable and increased the odds of a sustainable rise, with near term target @ 14.50 (and good odds to rise further eventually). Any near term retracement after the breakup should ideally not bring it back below 11.60, as this would affirm that the neckline has then become the new support as it begins to trend. Whether this will happen remains to be seen though, and a "breakup and retest" (if it happens) will offer a lower risk opportunity to Long the stock close to neckline with initial stop loss placed slightly below. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NYSE:PLTRLong
by Juliac
NFLX - uptrending along rising trendlineSince breaking up a base formation neckline @ 252, NFLX had began a rather choppy rise with moderately deep pullbacks. Longer term trader could place trailing stops slightly below the rising trendline for now and until such times when this trendline becomes irrelevant. This bull could have some way to go. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by Juliac
3
DUOL - buy the dipsDUOL broke out of a base formation neckline @ 114 strongly on 2nd March this year and then did a classic retest of the neckline on 13 March, affirming that the neckline @ 114 has now become support. It then went on to hit a high of 147 before retracing all the way back down 116.82 (triggering a trailing stop loss @ 130). A bullish morning star pattern than formed on 5th May and a re-entry was triggered on 6th May. However with earnings reporting on 9th May, one has to decide whether it was worthwhile to take the risk to long here. With the stock already dipping 20% from it's high of 147, the odds of an earnings surprise to the upside could be higher. Nevertheless, risking no more than just a small position (before earnings) seemed prudent. Now that earnings is out of the way (upside surprise), there is a chance it could break it's last recent high of 147 in the near term. On the bigger picture, the stock is now on an uptrend and there is room to rise in the coming months. However market could continue to be volatile hence it could be less risky to buy any near term dips rather than to chase breakouts. Learning to manage a position in such volatile conditions is paramount. I would still place trailing stops and am prepared to get stopped out but re-enter at the next bullish trigger, but only if the chart still looks bullish on the bigger picture. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NASDAQ:DUOLLong
by Juliac
EURCAD I It will retest near neckline of double topWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** EURCAD Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
38
FISV - Cup formationFISV peaked @ 125 on Feb2020, then went into consolidation and retested this level more than a year later in Apr2021 (surpassing by HKEX:2 +). The breakup of Cup-1 failed and this time FISV went into a 2 year consolidation (forming Cup-2). It now looks ready to revist this neckline (125 - 127) in the coming weeks. I suspect the odds of a successful break up this time is higher as since hitting the low in June 2022, FISV has shown good relative strength to SPX as it began to rebound (despite it's volatility, including a brief plunge in March brought on by the fear from Silicon Valley Bank's collapse). I might consider to test a small amount now (with initial stop just under 115) and look to add if it managed to break up above 127 successfully (ie having a "close" above the neckline for more than a few days). Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management (ie positions sizing, stop loss etc) is important! Take care and Good Luck!
FLong
by Juliac
RRGB - Great price action so far (buy the next dip)RRGB has the hallmarks of a stock that could potentially be a great winner. It broke out of it's base formation on 1st March on earnings beat with a strong breakaway gap (Breakaway gaps signify the beginning of a new trend and does not get filled in the near term). It then proceeded higher over the next few days before pulling back to the breakup level @ 10.60 on 14 Mar, and then bounced right off again from there. This classic "break up and retest" establishes the neckline as the new "resistence turned support". If one had been watching this stock, going long shortly after this "retest" would have been ideal. However, since it is likely the trend is still in early stage, any near term dip (eg to fib retracement levels of 38-50%, or formation of bull pennant or flag etc) would still be a good opportunity to long. Let's see if the opportunity presents soon. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NASDAQ:RRGBLong
by Juliac
NFLX - uptrend NFLX fell 77% from it's peak before finding bottom @ 162.71 on 12 May 2022. It began to trade sideways for the next few months until it propelled out of this range on 20 July after earnings beat. After this, it again traded sideways in this new higher range for the next 3 months until another earnings beat on 19 October that finally propelled it above a rather significant neckline @ 251. 1 week+ after the breakup. it began a steep pullback that brought it all the way back to the neckline before rebounding strongly from there. By now, it is clear that NFLX has turned the corner and is in fact now above it's 200 day MA (potential Golden Cross on the horizon). Buy the dips going forward and trail protective stops up accordingly. Expect some resistence as it approach a major gap fill @322 area. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by Juliac
NKE - CUP (& handle?) in the makingA "CUP" formation (with or without the "handle") is usually a consolidation period after the stock has run up. NKE ran 60% since its capitulation low @ 81.74 on 3rd Oct 2022 to a high of 130.92 on 2nd Feb23 before it began to "consolidate" for the past 2.5 months. It looks like it could attempt to retest the last high @ 130.92 in the coming days. Once it reaches this level however, whether it would break up soon after or instead begin another smaller consolidation (to form a "handle") remains to be seen. With earnings expected only in late June, it is possible a breakup above 130.92 may not happen so soon. Those who are invested need to remain patient as the longer term trend is still looking good. Short term trader would wait for a confirmed breakup of the neckline 2 @ 130.92 to initiate a Long trade. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NYSE:NKELong
by Juliac
ALGN - Will earnings be the catalyst?ALGN gapped up strongly on Earnings beat during its last earning on 1st Feb23. It then subsequently corrected and partially closed the gap, finding support eventually @ 297 the previous neckline region (now tuned support) and also right at the 38.2% fib retracement of the big recent upswing AB. Since it's last Earnings, the stock had been wedging in a range but what is clear is that the bogger trend is likley still on the upside as there was a Golden Cross that occured on 14 Feb (nearly 2 month ago) with both the 50 and 200 day MA sloping up now (mild slope for the 200 day MA as it will take a longer time to refect the new trend). Plus the fact that the stock has been holding above it's basing formation neckline. Any dip back towards the neckline region (297-303) could be an opportunity to long. I suspect the coming earnings expected on 26th April could provide the catalyst to propel it above this trianglle pattern. However, trade earnings at your own risk. If trade works out, I will be watching to scale out (partially) from 425 - 455, and manage the rest of the position with trailing stops. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NASDAQ:ALGNLong
by Juliac
SE - Formed a BaseSE hit it's lowest point on 9 Nov22, several days before an earnings beat pushed gapedthe stock up strongly. However the rebound since had been volatile until another earnings beat on 7 Mar23 gapped the stock up strongly again, this time well above it's 200 day Moving Averae, and a Golden Cross materialised a few days later. The Gap that happened this time had remained unfilled since. The stock has clearly turned the corner. Looking to accumulate at this recent dip. However, more momentum might materialise only if and when the stock eventually is clear and stay above the neckline @ 92. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NYSE:SELong
by Juliac
CRM - approaching neckline @ 195CRM had been basing for about 10 month now (since last May), the first sign that the worst could be over was when it broke above the 200 day movving average on 27 Jan, then a retest of this MA a month later on 27 Feb which validated the 200 day MA as the new "support". Several days later on 2nd Mar, it gapped up strongly on earnings beat, stopping right at a significant neckline around 195. Then proceeded to pullback and almost closing the entire gap in the coming days. While the stock has been staging a recovery since hitting the low in Dec last year, it also experienced steep pullbacks on the way up. Buying the dips would certainly had been a better option in this chopping conditions. Despite the volatility, what is clear however is that the stock is still on it's way to recovery, forming higher hi's (HH) and higher lo's (HL), with RSI staying at 50 or higher since early Jan, and a Golden Cross since 10 Mar. It could attempt to break the neckline @ 195 again in the coming days and if and when it is finally able to break and stay above this level, then we could (hopefully) see more a more steady rise with pullbacks that are less steep (ie within 50% fib retracement of each mini up swing). And the next target could be around 220. We can "predict" price targets but it is important to manage our risk with trailing stop losses and see what the market gives us. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NYSE:CRMLong
by Juliac