USA Economy Long-Term Outlook:The long-term outlook for the U.S. economy , as of mid-2025, is characterized by several key factors and some uncertainty, particularly around tariffs and monetary policy.
GDP Growth: The U.S. economy experienced a contraction in Q1 2025 (down 0.2-0.5% GDP), the first in three years, partly due to a surge in imports and a sharp cutback in consumer spending. Economists anticipate a bounce back in Q2 2025 (forecasted at 3% growth). However, the overall expectation for 2025 is for growth to decelerate significantly (e.g., Vanguard projects 1.5% GDP growth for year-end 2025, EY forecasts 1.5%, Trading Economics 1.7%, J.P. Morgan 2.1%). The second half of 2025 is expected to see a "pronounced demand cliff" due to front-loaded purchases ahead of anticipated trade restrictions.
Inflation: Tariffs are a significant factor impacting inflation. CPI growth is expected to average around 2.9% in 2025 and potentially accelerate to 3.2% in 2026, moderating to around 2.3% by 2029 (Deloitte). Core PCE inflation is expected to climb to the 2.8-3.0% range year-over-year in Q3 2025 - Q3 2026 as tariffs filter through the economy (University of Michigan). The Federal Reserve is closely watching tariff-induced price spikes.
Interest Rates/Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve is likely on hold with interest rates for now, but two more rate cuts are anticipated later in 2025 if the labor market remains stable (Vanguard). Some forecasts suggest the Fed will resume cutting rates in July 2025, reaching a terminal range of 3.25-3.5% by mid-2026 (University of Michigan). However, the uncertainty around tariffs and their impact on inflation could influence the Fed's decisions.
Labor Market: The labor market has been cooling but remains stable. The unemployment rate is expected to increase throughout 2025, potentially reaching 4.3% (Morningstar), 4.7% (Vanguard), or even 4.8% by year-end (EY). Job gains are predicted to decelerate significantly in the second half of 2025 due to tariffs.
Tariffs: Tariffs are a major source of uncertainty. While some recent de-escalation in trade policy with China has led to positive revisions in the outlook, the long-term impact of tariffs remains a concern, with potential to lower GDP growth, raise inflation, and weaken the labor market. The expectation is that tariffs will be at least modestly higher than at the start of 2025.
In essence, the long-term economic forecast for the USA suggests continued growth, but at a more moderate pace than recent years, with ongoing vigilance required for inflation and labor market dynamics, heavily influenced by evolving tariff policies.
Neowave-forecast
Will Natural Gas Prices Increase?Weekly Cash Data shows a sharp downtrend that stopped at 2.05 and then formed a sideways trend. Given the size of wave-(c) and the time of the waves, it seems that a reverse contracting triangle pattern is forming.
Currently, wave-(d) has ended and wave-(e) has begun. Under normal circumstances, we expect this wave to decrease to the point indicated by the red arrow, and in terms of time, this wave can continue until the time range of August 12-September 12 unless a political or geopolitical event occurs that causes wave-(e) to be shortened.
So, to trade, you must have a strategy along with analysis.
Good luck
NEoWave Chart
ETH(based on NEo wave)This supercycle is a nice nature triangle which E wave is ending and its look like a diamon diametrical.
so I will update it for the confirmation, I think ALTseason is so close and we can see that happening soon but this season take about 400 to 450 days and after that there is a huge CRASH!
Doge(based on NEo wave)last counting failed but there is these 2 bullish scenarios for doge and I think soon we will see a dog which can fly!
one of the ways is complex corrective wave which contains WXY waves and the other one is triangle with ABCDE waves.
in short term the bow tie diametric with G wave (which is not formed yet), I prefer to buy more on G wave.