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Earnings Week (08/02-08/06): Move Predictions, IV CrushBelow I've posted a compiled spreadsheet (Google Drive spreadsheet), outlining a large portion of upcoming earning releases for the week of August 2 through August 6, 2021. Options market overestimation percentages, predicted/actual earnings release moves, and average implied volatility (IV) numbers have all been sourced from Market Chameleon ( marketchameleon.com ). Google Drive spreadsheet public link: docs.google.com If and where I've posted quarterly analyst revision numbers, that data has been sourced from Seeking Alpha ( seekingalpha.com ). PLEASE take any analyst "recommendations" with a literal kilogram of salt, as any/all critical thinkers have noted a tendency toward foul play with "analyst" target numbers and recommendations (hint, they do not have YOUR best interests in mind). Current prices are obviously as of market close, Friday, 07/30/2021. The most important data provided lie in the first five columns immediately proceeding "Current Price." This spreadsheet provides a readily accessible, macro view of potential earnings plays for the week. I often use this overview to aid with decisions to either buy or write put/call spreads, credit/debit iron condors, or more standard long plays with protective puts, dependent upon overall market volatility (VIX), and equity-specific IV. Please post any comments/questions/concerns, and best of luck this busy week traders. NASDAQ:NXPI RIG SPG NYSE:BABA NYSE:BP COP UA LLY CLX ATVI OXY AYX CPE CVS SMG CLVS MPC ROKU UBER ETSY FSLY MPC WDC WYNN QRVO MRNA FVRR W REGN SQ NET ZG NVAX DKNG CGC GT NASDAQ:CRON
NYSE:BABA
by JRSone
4
NET CLOUDFLARE POSSIBLY BREAKING OUTCloudflare Inc Cl A (NET)- DEVELOPS SOFTWARE FOR FIREWALL, ROUTING, TRAFFIC OPTIMIZATION, LOAD BALANCING, AND OTHER NETWORK SERVICES. Trying this name again. It was good to me last year. Closed position 12/28/2020. I've been waiting patiently for this to continue its trajectory. Possible breakout on high volume 2.6 million. Volume change 109% 06-08-2021 Entry 88.88 STOP 79.20 1 R 9.49 1 R PRICE 98.18 2R PRICE 107.67 3R PRICE 117.16 Earning increase 25% over quarter previous year Educational purposes. Not meant as trading advice.
NYSE:NETLong
by Tea-Trades
Will NET Bring Cloud Back To Life?NET NYSE:NET is a riskier play at this moment due to the overall weakness in tech stock and market conditions. But, in comparison to other companies in this sector NET is holding up fairly well and showing some relative strength. NET tried to get over $76 today and failed to hold above. Testing a strong support zone for the third time over the past two months and looks like we may be starting to bounce. Volume has been accumulating with 4 out of the last 6 days trading above NET's daily volume average. POC on the daily chart is right at $82.51 lvl. If SPY/QQQ can start to breakout this week $$ should flow back into the tech stocks and the cloud sector which has taken a solid beating can see some bullish movement. Ideally, we gap up to $78 and form an island reversal. But, a play over $76 with the right market conditions looks primed for a good swing. EMA's serving as a resistance above in the 78-79 range, tough lvls to get through in the Low Volume Node (LVN) 4/16 $80 calls will be my swing of choice (4.35/4.65). IV is very low 21% IV percentile on NET and if the market starts to move back up these can pay out well! *I entered a small NET position this week and will add more on break of $76 with volume.
NYSE:NETLong
by DOpeTrades
1
PD: The Forgotten Child Of The SaaS FamilyThe Business Pagerduty is the most overlooked publicly traded company with 70% 3-year CAGR revenue growth that also has 85% gross margins. The stock has fallen since its IPO in the spring of 2019, while it’s peers who also IPO’d in 2019 have soared (see Page 2). Pagerduty sits in the middle of all business software applications, taking in real time data from all these different applications (See paragraph 3). This real-time data is filtered through Pagerduty’s proprietary AI function, identifying future software problems. It then takes it one-step further by identifying specific personnel, or a team, who is responsible to resolve the digital breakdown while giving it context. This all occurs before the problem actually happens. Not only do employees experience less software headaches, the customer will have a more streamlined digital experience. Pagerduty helps reduce digital issues and outages for both customers and employees software. Pagerduty is a double-edged sword that eliminates problems that negatively effect businesses both internally and externally. In a rapidly growing virtual world, where customers expect a flawless experience and companies are shifting to remote work, Pagerduty sits in the middle of this digital transformation. Pagerduty provides businesses the jump on future software problems that employees and customers will face. This is the only software that takes in real-time data, from multiple software programs, that analyzes and identifies future problems, alerting the correct team responsible for resolving these issues. Ensuring a seamless digital experience every time. Pagerduty integrates with software giants such as AWS, Servicenow, Zendesk, Okta, Zoom, Slack, Microsoft Teams, Cloudfare and Datadog to name a few. Many of these partners are also customers including Okta, Datadog, Zoom and Cloudfare. The company has a robust customer base, growing from 34% of the Fortune 100 when they became public, to 60% as of their most recent earnings. Brick by Brick Capital believes it is clear that Pagerduty has a superior product as highlighted by the robust costumer base, revenue growth and an outstanding 95% renewal rate. The Peer Group A major proponent of our bullish thesis on Pagerduty stems from its discounted value when compared to its peers. Both Zscaler (ZS) and Cloudflare (NET), SaaS companies, have seen significant stock appreciation since they became public in 2019 rising 160% and 315% respectively, while Pagerduty has fallen 10% since its IPO. There is no fundamental reasoning for this discrepancy between the stock appreciation of its peers and the deprecation of its own. Pagerduty has shown robust growth, margins, liquidity and a focus on spending towards research and development. These factors along with the macro-tailwinds of businesses expanding their digital footprints and their need to synthesis all the data, puts Pagerduty in a great spot to benefit in the long run. Brick by Brick Capital strongly believes that the company will get rerated over the coming months to something that is more comparable to its peers P/S ratio. The Technical Analysis At Brick by Brick Capital, our edge is discovering unique companies that have great fundamentals, macro-economic tailwinds with a large economic moat. We then use astute technical analysis to identify optimal entry points to minimize risk and maximize alpha. Pagerduty’s current price is at a significant level. It is breaking above both the short-term resistance line ($32.70 since 6/19/20) and its long-term resistance trend line (since 6/17/19). We believe now presents an optimal time to enter into the name, before a subsequent break out from these resistance levels. However, it is critical to point out that it has a near term immediate downside of $26. If earnings on 12/4/20 are not well received by the street, a retest of the post earnings low of $23 is in store. With this in mind, an opening position in Pagerduty should be no more than 50% of a full position. This allows an investor to average down on a pullback. Conclusion Pagerduty presents an exceptional risk-reward scenario for investors. It is a high growth, high margin business that has macro-economic tailwinds at its sails. Usually in these scenarios it requires an investor to pay sky-high valuations, however because of the lack of interest that the company has received this is not the case. Pagerduty is a true growth-value hybrid play in a market that is littered with overvalued tech companies.
NYSE:PDLong
by RobertTheTrader
4
Stocks To Watch This Week Nov 14I went through and created a watchlist for names that have held up well in this choppy environment. Most of these names are at or near all time highs or multi year highs. There are 40 total stocks on this list. Many of these have IPO'd in the last few years and still have a growth story ahead of them. There are also some financial stocks which may be starting to outperform the broader market. Know your time frame and risk tolerance, grab a pencil and paper and jot down the names that look interesting to you and then make the trade your own. Good Luck!
SP:SPXLong
by Jtacher51
11