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Netflix Analysts forget microeconomics principles... Hysteria??Netflix Q2 2022 Earnings Report: ir.netflix.net Key Takeaways of Netflix Earning Report > Lowest P/E ration in 10 years of operating. > Revenue is UP 2.06% from last quarter. > Revenue is UP 9.8% from Q2 of 2021 > Operating Margin of 25.1% is UP 19.1% from the last 4 Quarter average. > Diluted EPS of $3.53 is UP 25.6% from the last 4 Quarter average. > Global subscriptions is 6.7% UP from Q1 2021 > Cash Flow is strong. > Netflix Content is still Great. Streaming market share for total US TV time has risen 0.4% in a 10 month period. That is factoring all the new cheaper competitors entering the Market. > Net Margin has Been growing at a constant and rapid pace. With the Financials briefly covered above, here are some of the key thoughts to keep in mind. Why are financial "Analysts/reporters" trumpeting on about the around 2 million lost subscribers? The answer is that they have not read the Financials. Their understanding of the streaming market is limited to subscriber count as the sole Variable to take into account. This is the unfortunate result of an incentive, to hold one reason or aspect as the sole driver of the streaming business. >> The microeconomic 101 principle should have made it clear that as Netflix prices are raised there will be less demand. >> What is more important is that the FINANCIAL inflows, more than make up for the lost 2 million subscribers. The demand is Inelastic and therefore the price rise, was the right decision from a shareholder & business perspective. >>> I will be DCA into this oversold discount, increasing my Netflix position in my portfolio. With the long term in mind, that Netflix is a main pillar in the continuously growing streaming sector<<< Not financial advice, just an investor/trader's opinion. Who is looking for the best reward to risk In this turbulent market. Check out my AMD analysis if you liked this Idea:
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by FortunaAlgoAnalytics
You May Be Having a Bad Day, but Not as Bad as Bill AckmanTrading stocks is tough, don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. Even the best have nightmare days. Today’s example would be billionaire Bill Ackman, CEO, and founder of Pershing Capital, a notorious hedge fund. With an MBA from Harvard Business school and 20 years in the business, he is a real pro. His fund generated approximately 70% returns in 2020 alone. This is remarkable considering this firm currently holds about $20B in assets under management. At the start of the year, Netflix was down significantly from its highs. Ackman took this opportunity to accumulate shares, approximately 3.1M shares worth over $1B. The stock pulled back for roughly+20% gains. He looked like a genius. However, yesterday after the bell, Netflix announced its quarter one earnings. It was not pretty. In this report, the company exceeded earnings expectations by 20% BUT it was their first-time instance of subscriber loss which was roughly 200,000. The company expected to add over 2M subscribers in this period. As a result, the company tanked roughly over 30%. Quick Math Invested = $1.1B (3.1M @~370) Current = $685M (3.1M @~222) Single Day Loss = $387M (3.1M @ 125) Total Loss = $435M So if you are having a bad day, you probably are not having as bad of a day as Bill Ackman, who has lost almost half a billion worth of his and his client’s money. This is a friendly reminder that even the pros have massive down days. Additionally, just because a security’s price has decreased significantly it doesn’t mean it can’t keep going down. #TrendIsYourFriend. Learn from other mistakes. On another note, Howard Hughes Corp. ($HHC) filed a 13D, an SEC form required for ownership beyond 5%, which revealed that Pershing Square Capital owns 25% of the company. Should be interesting how this stock plays out in the near future.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by howdydany
NETF*** - The Beginning Of The End?Netflix is one of the many companies that used the global pandemic to their benefit. With millions being in lockdown, there was only so much board games you could play before you switched on Netflix.. and chilled. When the pandemic hit in March 2020, Netflix saw a staggering growth of almost 100% in just a few months. In total, it went on to gain 142% from the start of the pandemic. As with all great series, it must come to an end, much like Netflix's uncontrollable growth. Recently Netflix took a massive hit when their estimated growth in subscribers felt below par. It was projected that they'll get 2.5million new subscribers, which fell below investors expectation of 6.93million subscribers which started the year off pretty badly. Coupled with price hikes and competition from other streaming platforms, Netflix was haemorrhaging subscribers. Recently, it took even a bigger hit. Investers were expecting Netflix to report another quarter of slowing subscribers growth but the results were even worse. Netflix lost 200k subscribers and it is expected that they'll be losing a lot more - perhaps millions. Technical Analysis From a technical standpoint, Netflix has started its downtrend and both fundamentals and technicals don't appear to show any signs of a reversal coming anytime soon. Would be a good idea to sit on the sidelines for now and see how far Netflix will drop this quarter. What do you guys think? Leave your comments below!
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NASDAQ:NFLX
by WicktatorFX
96
BLOOD IN THE STREETSWe can see from the Weekly timeframe, that this crash in $NFLX is heading towards some substantial resistance, in the form of moving averages and previous highs / breakout highs. You could perhaps (on the indication of reversal, on the 4H chart) take a long (leap) play, in light of the fact, that this drop was so substantial, we cannot have that much further down to go. Then again.... of course, it could turn out we have much further down to go, and thus we use stop losses, as at best, we can never be sure of anything in the Markets. So, I'll remain neutral for now, however, I'll be looking for that reversal. *Side note, not that this is worth anything at all... We've blown through even the most bearish analyst estimates for the stock price* Forward P/E 24.57.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by clarkehimself
Netflix (NASDAQ: $NFLX) Nearing 2018 Correction Low! 🤑Netflix, Inc. provides entertainment services. It offers TV series, documentaries, and feature films across various genres and languages. The company provides members the ability to receive streaming content through a host of Internet-connected devices, including TVs, digital video players, television set-top boxes, and mobile devices. It also provides DVDs-by-mail membership services. The company has approximately 204 million paid members in 190 countries. Netflix, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Los Gatos, California.
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by RedHotStocks
3
NFLX Potential for Bearish Reversal | 20th April 2022Price is moving nearer to the pivot level. We can expect a potential for bearish reversal from sell entry level of 351.85 which is in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection towards the take profit level of 342.44 which is in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is further supported by price trading below the Ichimoku cloud indicator Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by Rockqet
NFLX over-reaction: dropped 25.7% after earnings, what next?The NFLX drop post-market may be an over-reaction to the loss of subscribers. Even ROKU streaming was affected by the negative sentiment & dropped 6% post-market after rising 8.22% Tuesday. FAANG stocks was consequently pulled down by 9% after the drop in NFLX. I think NFLX can recover in the next few weeks to 350, the 0.854 Fibo level from where it dropped. That will be a 33% upside from current 258. All it takes is another blockbuster. It is probable that NFLX may drop a little further first down to the 232 to 250 support zone in the chart & consolidate from there before recovery. It will take a lot of work considering such damage already done. Not trading advice
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by xtremerider8
9
Netflix - a Value Trap or Value Buy - You Decide!Oh. My. Goodness. Today's post is about Netflix. It's down 25% as I type. Yeeeeeesh! So what happened? Well, bad earnings. Again. But here's the thing - this story gets more interesting. I don't own any Netflix, but I am watching it since the well known investor Bill Ackman plowed $1 billion into it last quarter. Oh, and by the way, OUCHY... He's now lost $250 million on that investment. Kids, don't forget, it's not a loss until you sell 😜 60%... That's how much Netflix is down since its all-time highs a few months ago. Anyone who bought at those highs has been cut in half and then some. Investing and trading is not easy, and over the years, this always happens. Drawdowns, crashes, and bull markets and bear markets all come and go. The Netflix story fits all of that. Maybe that's why I felt like writing about it. I should also be totally clear: it's on my watchlist for a trade. Let's dive in a little more, though, before deciding if we even should trade it. I was pretty surprised to learn that Netflix's PE ratio is the lowest it's been in over 10 years. Netflix has a PE ratio in the 20s. If you look forward a year or so, its PE ratio is more like 18. At this point, you have to wonder, is Netflix a value investment? Wait, it's no longer a growth stock? Talk about the end of an era. I never thought I would see Netflix trading at a PE ratio like IBM. The thing is, if Netflix can actually start churning out free cash flow at these levels, it really might be an epic value investment. It would also mean buyback time for them. Netflix has about $7 billion in cash. Surely they want to use some of this for their reinvestments, but also, at multi-year lows, a $2 billion buyback here is almost 2% of the company. Reed Hastings is a smart dude. He knows. Let's keep going. Netflix's market cap is approaching $100B again. This is its lowest valuation since 2019 and 2018. In Both instances, Netflix bounced and bounced rather quickly. Hold up, Stef. Hold up. Are your really writing about potentially buying the dip in Netflix? No. Not at all. I am only thinking out loud. There is a bearish cash. As most of us know, Netflix now has more competition than ever. There are more and more streaming platforms. In addition, is their content even that great? How does it compare to other companies? This is a determining factor as well. And, if it is the case, Netlfix is value trap. It will compete and compete, but no longer be a shiny growth stock. Anyways, those are my thoughts. Streamlined and free to all of you. No subscription required. I'll share an update if I actually trade this. In the meantime, my feet are up and I am watching in awe. The best entertainment is markets.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by scheplick
16
NETFLIX Earning Preview Traders Thoughts The selloff in netflix has seen nearly all the "stay at home" pandemic gains erased. But we are back at more familiar levels and much better value. Once the market finds downside support then the relief rally should be quite large. At these levels the risks are skewed to topside with market mood towards netflix already negative anything that surprises positive will have a bigger effect. On more negative news it would have to be devastating for dip buyers not to be interested at 2020 lows. Analyst Thoughts Netflix is releasing its Q1 earnings report on 04/19/2022 after market close. The report will be for the fiscal quarter ending March 2022. According to Investing.com, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $2.95, down 21.33% from the reported EPS for the same quarter last year. The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $7.94 billion, up 10.89% from the reported revenue for the same quarter last year. Another major piece of data investors will want to pay close attention to is subscriber growth. In the fourth quarter of 2021, Netflix added 8.28 million subscribers, beating analysts’ expectations of 8.19 million. However, this was 220,000 fewer subscribers than Netflix added in the fourth quarter of 2020. In its Q4 2021 report, Netflix also lowered its guidance for the first quarter of 2022, estimating that it will only add 2.5 million subscribers to its platform, significantly below analysts’ previous expectations of 6.93 million. Investors’ growing concerns surrounding subscriber growth combined with external market pressures, such as high inflation and rising bond yields, resulted in Netflix’s share price plummeting 21.87% after its Q4 earnings release. If subscriber growth is worse-than-expected in its upcoming quarterly earnings report on Tuesday, we could potentially see the share price test its 2020 pandemic low of $290.25. easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. “Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party."
EASYMARKETS:NFXUSDLong
by easyMarkets
Breaking down AT&T’s stock after WarnerMedia spin-offNearly four years after fighting a hard battle to acquire WarnerMedia and accelerating its foray into the media business, AT&T (NYSE:T) has gone back to its roots to focus on being a telecommunications company. On April 8, AT&T completed the spin-off of 100% of its interest in WarnerMedia, which owns subscription service HBO Max and film production company Warner Bros., and merged it with Discovery Inc. (NASDAQ:DISCA) to form a mega-streaming platform to better take on giants like Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) Apple TV, and Disney+ and Hulu by Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS). Foray into media services AT&T completed its $85.4 billion acquisition of WarnerMedia, formerly Time Warner, in 2018 about two years after first disclosing the move. The company had hoped to provide seamless media content through its direct-to-customer distribution. It subsequently rebranded Time Warner into what is now known as WarnerMedia. WarnerMedia owns Netflix rival HBO Max, an over-the-top subscription service launched in 2020 with a ton of exclusive and original contents, as well as HBO classics. However, in the years that AT&T acquired WarnerMedia, HBO Max still lagged Netflix, which continues to dominate the global streaming platform. According to tech news platform CNET, Netflix remains the biggest streaming service provider in 2022, with Disney+, Hulu, Amazon.com’s (NASDAQ:AMZN) Prime Video, and HBO Max trailing behind. The merger of WarnerMedia with Discovery to form Warner Bros. Discovery (NASDAQ:WBD) is expected to up both platforms' game against Netflix, Amazon, and Disney. Since announcing the closing of the merger, AT&T’s stock has jumped 7% as of Thursday, April 14, but down nearly 14% on a year-on-year basis. Its rival, Verizon (NYSE:VZ) is also trading almost 8% down from a year ago. Bullish on AT&T? Although AT&T’s stock remains below year-ago levels, many analysts remain bullish on the telco’s stock, citing its renewed focus on its core telco operations. Bank of America analyst David Barden recently reaffirmed his buy rating on AT&T with a $25 price target, saying its shares are undervalued. Barden also noted that the spin-off of WarnerMedia will help ease the complexity of AT&T’s operations. "With the deal now closed, the dividend reset, and the investor base stabilizing, we believe the stage is set for investors to begin focusing on AT&T’s improving fundamentals," Barden reportedly wrote in a note to clients. JP Morgan analyst Philip Cusick also issued an upbeat outlook on AT&T’s stock, setting a price target of $22, urging investors to capture the discount on the company’s share price. Focus on core telco business Analysts now expect AT&T to double down on its wireless business and expand its fiber optic reach amid intense competition against rivals like Verizon in the broadband space. In the fourth quarter of 2021, AT&T’s revenue fell to $41 billion from $45.7 billion a year earlier on the back of lower business wireline revenue, which was slightly offset by higher mobility and consumer wireline turnover, and strong revenue from WarnerMedia. The absence of WarnerMedia’s results will likely weigh on AT&T’s financials in the near term, but its renewed focus on being a telecom pure-play company will make it more competitive against Verizon T-Mobile US (NASDAQ:TMUS) and other smaller players as it expands and improves its 5G wireless networks. "Going forward, we aim to be America's best broadband provider powered by 5G and fiber, and defined by greater ubiquity, reliability, capacity, and speed,” AT&T CFO John Stankey said in a recent earnings call. Stankey added that the company will focus on growing its subscribers and accelerating the pace of its 5G deployment.
NYSE:T
by BlackBull_Markets
NETFLIX Earnings and Potential Trade OportunitiesShares in Netflix, which is due to release first-quarter earnings on Tuesday, have dropped 43 % so far this year as global subscriber numbers have disappointed. According to the FT.com: "British households have canceled video subscriptions in record numbers as they curb non-essential spending to cope with the cost of living squeeze, reinforcing concerns that a pandemic-fuelled boom in streaming is over. Consumers walked away from about 1.5mn video-on-demand accounts such as Disney Plus, Apple TV Plus, and Now during the first three months of the year, according to figures from analytics group Kantar. Consumers are re-evaluating subscriptions in response to higher charges. Several providers have raised prices in markets including the UK, in part to compensate for rising costs of labor and facilities that have made TV and film production more expensive." Technically: Daily Cycle Sniper pointing bearish continuation. H4 Cycle Sniper entering over-sold zone Closing below 328 USD would take the shares down to 311 - 290 USD. We will look for a buying opportunity by Cycle Sniper H4 / H1 Better than expected financials will cause a stronger and faster recovery.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by chartreader_pro
$NFLX Inverse Head & ShouldersOn the daily chart it looks like Netflix ($NFLX) is forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern with upside potential as marked on the chart. Analysts are not expecting earnings to be great, might get squeezed. Disclaimer: Stratford Research newsletters reflect the research and opinions of only the authors who are associated persons of Stratford Consulting Ltd. The newsletters are for informational purposes only and are not a recommendation of an investment strategy or recommendation to buy or sell any security or digital asset (cryptocurrency, etc.) in any account. The information provided within the newsletters is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. Any third-party information provided therein does not reflect the views of Stratford Consulting Ltd. or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates. All investments involve risk including the loss of principal and past performance does not guarantee future results.
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by atrusik