Netflix Analysis, A breakout is near Hello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :)
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The Netflix stock price is still trending in a sideways channel between the ranges of 478.73 and 565.39, the side movement of the trend is still not broken and the market is trending in the middle range of the channel, Note that the Major trend is still bullish for the stock with no major reversal signs yet.
We could be seeing a movement in the current trend in the next period of time which could affect the major trend, but a confirmation and a breakout is needed to say that the trend has changed.
Talking about a lower time frame, On the daily basis we are looking at 2 different Scenarios in the next few days :
Scenario 1 :
after a Bullish Harami pattern has emerged in the market, the price will most likely move up and hit the first resistance level at 529.81, if the Bulls were able to hold control then the price will keep going up and will be headed to the resistance line at 551.28 which would bring the Stock price to near the high edge of the channel where we could be seeing a Bullish breakout for the long term trend.
Scenario 2 :
The bears are still in control right now and will try to bring the stock price lower, their first stop would be the first support line at 508.34, where the Bulls will have a chance to regain control, but if the Bears were able to hold that control then we will be seeing the price going even lower and hitting the support line at 486.81 which would bring the stock price near the low edge of the channel where we could be a Bearish breakout for the long term trend.
Technical indicator showing :
1) The Market price for the daily trend is above the 5 10 50 100 200 MA and EMA (Bullish sign)
2) The RSI is at 49.66 showing that the market is in a Neutral state right now, a movement in the price could be up or down.
3) The Stoch is showing a positive crossover between %K and D%, No divergences were found between the indicator and the market. (Bullish sign)
4) The Ultimate Oscillator is at 60.033 and giving a buy signal.
Support & Resistance points :
support Resistance
1) 508.34 1) 529.81
2) 496.12 2) 539.06
3) 486.81 3) 551.28
Fundamental point of view :
A federal judge on Monday said Netflix Inc must face a defamation lawsuit by former Manhattan prosecutor Linda Fairstein over her portrayal as a racist and unethical villain in "When They See Us," a 2019 series about the Central Park Five case.
U.S. District Judge Kevin Castel in Manhattan said Fairstein had plausibly alleged defamation as to five scenes, including that she withheld evidence, coerced confessions and directed a racially discriminatory police roundup of young men in Harlem.
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 62.73% over the past year. Measured over the past 5 years, NFLX shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 81.41% on average per year.
The short term is neutral, but the long term trend is still positive. Not much to worry about for now.
NFLX is in better financial health than average in its industry. Its Altman-Z score is much better than the industry average of 2.50. An Altman-Z score of 6.53 indicates that NFLX is not in any danger of bankruptcy at the moment.
This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from fundamental analysts for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice.
If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !!
Thank you for reading.
Netflix
Trading Plan for NFLX. Breakout, correction, and setup.Hi Guys, today we will share our view on NFLX. We think its an interesting chart due to the massive correction we can observe since July 2020
What is our plan? First of all, we want to observe a breakout. We are not interested in trading inside the current range. The level we will use to confirm the breakout is 600. IF the price reaches that level, we will consider that its time to look for the retest
What is a retest? Also known as Throwback in bullish impulses or Pullback on bearish impulses. It's the correction that happens after the price breaks a relevant level or structure. The small red arrow above the structure is our expected Throwback.
Great, what can I do with that?
Our plan is to wait for a clear throwback (between 7 to 15 days). IF that happens, we will use that structure to execute pending orders above (horizontal green line), and we will define our stop loss below the throwback—final Target on the 2nd fibo extension. (we defined this by using the previous impulse).
Risk
We will be risking between 1 to 2% of our trading Capita. (NEVER RISKED MORE)
What happens if the price doesn't do that?
We don't trade...
What happens if the price executes your order and then goes straight to your stop loss?
We have a stop loss...
Thanks for reading!
Netflix and chillIm reading this chart with a wyckoff view and it looks to be a reaccumulative pattern reaching its end
FAANG Stocks: Ready To FALL? Hidden Fibonacci Pattern FormingTraders, FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google) share basket is forming a hidden pattern which can push these stocks down. However there are certain conditions that we must have. In this top down analysis we see how Fibonacci Confluence Pattern (FCP Pattern) is forming a zone which can create a massive trade opportunity.
If you are invested in any of these stocks then you must watch it so that you are aware of this. Also if you are looking for short opportunity because you think markets are over extended, then also you must be aware of this.
I also posted a similar pattern which is appearing on Netflix. Find that in the related ideas below.
Rules:
1. Never trade too much
2. Never trade without a confirmation
3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too
✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums.
✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis
✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions.
Take care and trade well
-Vik
____________________________________________________
📌 DISCLAIMER
The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only.
Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions.
____________________________________________________
NETFLIX (NFLX): Can Fall Out Of The Consolidation NowTraders, Netflix has been running inside a consolidation range for a long time now and the close of this month can give us a good indication on the downward breakout of this consolidation. Expected targets based on FCP analysis are on the chart.
Rules:
1. Never trade too much
2. Never trade without a confirmation
3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too
✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums.
✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis
✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions.
Take care and trade well
-Vik
____________________________________________________
📌 DISCLAIMER
The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only.
Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions.
____________________________________________________
NETFLIX: The End Of The GROWTH Story?
While many of you might be surprised to see anyone being bearish biased on NETFLIX of all things, I say that my bias has some solid basis underneath it
Firstly, let's deal with the elephant in the room: the whole market is a massive bubble with SPY gaining more than 100% from the Lows of the COVID crash, and NETFLIX gained 104%
One might say that gaining 104% in less than a year is a spectacular achievement, however, considering the fact that the company grew its business massively since the beginning of the lockdowns, outperforming the market by a mere 4% is a sign that the investors are beginning to get skeptical about the future growth, and that is the KEY
You see, all the tech stocks are a growth story, not the value story, and by the virtue of being a growth stock NTFLX is wildly overpriced with the P/E standing at 64, while the SPY benchmark P/E stands at 34 which means that NETFLIX is trading at a 100% premium to the market and that given that SPY is now full of tech growth stocks itself which skews the P/E to the upside, while also benefiting from the passive ETF flows which have determined the rapid market growth after 2008 that outpaced the GDP growth by a factor of 5
All of the above means that the moment Netflix stops being considered a growth story it will start falling to at least cover the gap with the SPY P/E and if it gets kicked out of the index it will lose all the passive inflows and the price will halve again.
So am I convinced that the Netflix growth is over? Let's take a look at the data:
Here is an extract from the LA Times article on the company:
«The streaming giant added a mere 1.5 million paying members globally in the second quarter, which is down 85% from the same period last year when it reported 10.1 million subscriber additions. The company also added 61% fewer subscribers than it did in the first quarter when it missed projections with 3.98 million new accounts. In the U.S. and Canada, Netflix lost about 430,000 paid memberships in the second quarter»
It means that the company gained almost all of the potential subscribers during the lockdowns, that it would have been gaining for years otherwise, as those who could/wanted to subscribe did so, and the pool of those that haven’t yet is relatively small.
Also, NETFLIX is finally losing its monopoly, which once brought fat margins, as the Disney+, HBO Max, and other players are gaining market share breathing down the company’s neck, which not only adds downward pressure to the subscription price but also increases the cost of the content, as the competition for quality scripts and actors drives the prices higher
That puts Netflix- once a king reigning supreme between the rock and the hard place, fighting for the market that is not growing as fast anymore while having to Lower the subscription prices and paying more for the content simultaneously.
And Unlike Google, Amazon, or Apple that have secured near-monopoly positions, tying their customers to the ecosystems and capitalizing on the Network effect, while having aces up their sleeves like championing General purpose AI or being on the cutting edge of quantum computing, Netflix has nothing to offer outside of their small niche and what is more important, the company’s product is easily replaceable and is not essential or even unique anymore.
Summing up, while I am not saying that the stock will collapse tomorrow when the crash comes, all everything falls, NETFLIX might be the one that never recovers.
SHORT TRADE SUGGESTION: buy PUT options that are 6 months and 1 year from now at the strikes that are at -50% of the current price and keep rolling the position with time.
You might get 20:1 or even 50:1 returns if you catch the crash!
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NFLX 1W Is the price of $860 per share real in the near future?Today, we will write down our expectations regarding the value of Netflix shares in the future, as well as a little bit tackle of the history of the company's development.
If you love reading business literature to inspire yourself for future achievements, then we strongly recommend that you read the story of "getting on your feet" once a small company Netflix that has been renting and selling VSH cassettes and DVDs by mail since 1997.
One year after founding, the owners stopped selling VSH and DVDs to focus on the initial idea of renting discs and cassettes.
Their entire history is based on the "super flexibility" of executives who sensed the future trend of their market and acted ahead of the curve.
Here's an example of how a small then Netflix beat the giant of their segment — Blockbuster
The heyday of Blockbuster dates back to 2004, when the company employed about 60 thousand people, and the company owned 9 thousand points of rent and stores. In the late 2000s, Blockbuster faced strong competition from online video service Netflix and filed for bankruptcy in 2010.
Meanwhile, Netflix has expanded its business since 2007 by introducing online media streaming, while not closing the DVD and Blu-ray rentals.
Since 2010, the company has expanded from the United States and expanded internationally.
And since 2013, Netflix has entered the industry of its own content with the debut of its first series.
Now, there are plenty of competitors to Netflix, and we all know them and use their services, but the price of NFLX shares confirms their strength in the market.
If you narrow the chart, you will see that the NFLX share price has been moving in a dynamic channel upward since 2004.
In 2012, the share price bounced off the lower boundary of the channel and t he $8 mark and began an upward trend that continues to this day.
In February-March 2020, when the entire market fell by 30-35%, or even more, NFLX shares fell in value only by -26%
However, the CoviD crisis was good for the company. Everyone sitted home and bought subscriptions to their services, and Netflix's stock doubled.
In fact, for the last 12 months, the price of NFLX shares has been in consolidation in the corridor of $475-575
Trading volumes are decreasing, which means that in the near future, the price will have a strong impulse.
There is a high probability that the momentum will be up , the price will break up and consolidate above $575 , and the next target from above will be $860 per NFLX share.
An alternative scenario is a fall in the NFLX price to the $275-325 zone. This scenario will activate when the price breaks and consolidates below $475 , and the first bell that it is worth refraining from longs will be the price approaching $500.
Netflix a Possible buy ? 1D analysis Hello everyone , as we all know the market action discounts everything :)
We saw the market rally after bullish engulfing back in the 17 jun and reaching 544.65 , the market seems to be getting a small correction move after that rally .
Both the short term and long term trends are positive. This is a very positive sign.
the market price seems to be trending in a channel between the ranges of 469.67 and 586.60 , no signs of reversal for 1D chart was found yet and indicators are telling us :
1_The market price trending above the 10 MA and the 20 MA showing bullish movement
2_Stoch is in an overbought state with positive crossover happening when %K crossed over %D , %K is sitting at 83.46 and %D at 80.34. no divergences were found between the stochastic oscillator and the market price
3_MACD creating a positive signal crossing above the Market price
studying all that data we can tell that the Netflix stock seems to be moving up in the next few days and possible
We can see 2 important resistance areas:
1_first is at 540.47
2_second is at 565.18
Fundamental point of view :
An Altman-Z score of 6.58 indicates that NFLX is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment and the Piotroski-F score of NFLX is 7.00. This is a strong score and indicates good health and profitability for NFLX.
With the Current Ratio of 1.27 NFLX should not have any problems paying its short term obligations.
Netflix is doubling down on producer Shonda Rhimes. “I want her to think of Netflix as the biggest canvas possible to create on,” Netflix Co-Chief Executive and Chief Content Officer Ted Sarandos said in an interview.
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This is my personal opinion done with analysing of the market price and research online , not financial advice.
If you have any questions please ask
Thank you for reading.
Discovery +15% Long OpportunityDISCA appears to be doing bullish things to start the new week off as it continues to hold above a critical $30 price level.
It has consolidated nicely after breaking out of a supply line that has held it down for months now.
It is now beginning to make higher highs and higher lows on the smaller time frames and now has bullish confluence with the 21 MA and $30 support just below it. This will serve as very thick ice for the bears to break thru.
Look for an upside target of around $35 before traders begin to take profit. The 200 MA is also currently around this target area, which could serve as resistance as well.
Weekly Outlook! 7/6 - 7/9Check out what stocks we are watching for the coming week! As well as a recap of last week's video!
NYSE:ABBV
We are looking for a breakout of it's current pennant pattern over the $115.60 area. We could see a return back to all time highs here
NASDAQ:AMZN
We are looking for a breakout of recent highs of $3525 for a re-test of all time highs, and ultimately a breakout of all time highs over $3554.
NASDAQ:NFLX
We are watching for a break of trend resistance over the $539 level for a gap fill up to $546
NYSE:SHOP
We are watching this to break out of it's current bullflag pattern over $1500 for another move higher.
#NFLX: Long term trend resuming? Daily and weekly are bullishThe way I see things we are about to have a face melting beta rally, with growth outperforming value again for the rest of the year and into Q1-Q2 2022 at least.
$NFLX might be a good position to have, quite unloved for a long time, lagging the mega cap rally, and coming out of a nice base, weekly uptrend formed after the 9 week down trend signal expired last week.
I like the Spielberg partnership news, and the way things are going with the new delta variant and rising cases I suspect people will do a whole lot more of sitting and streaming at home for much longer.
One thing $NFLX was lacking was new content, now they are once again able to film new stuff, and might actually generate some growth again.
Best of luck,
Cheers.
Ivan Labrie.
As another request, will look at NFLX! 👍As my follower @KingArthur904 requested, here are my insights about NFLX!
Well, we have an amazing bull trend here! What’s more, there’s nothing telling me that NFLX will go down. We have not a single bearish pattern here. I see NFLX at 546.45, and I’ll explain why soon.
But is there something that could make it correct? Yes. If NFLX loses the 525.12 I see it at the gap at 518.56.
Another possible danger is in the 4h chart. We are outside the Bollinger Bands, and the RSI is clearly overbought. This indicates euphoria, and usually, what follows euphoria is pullbacks.
If the bulls are strong enough, we’ll stop at 518, but we should be prepared for a possible pullback to the 511. Especially if the Nasdaq and other faangs drop as well. I don’t see NFLX reversing and becoming bearish, though, but I expect a pullback – despite the lack of confirmation. This could give us a buy chance, in my view, but it must do something good near the support level first!
Let’s just focus on the points mentioned in the 30min, as they will be our main guide for now.
If you liked this trading idea, remember to click on the “Follow” button to get more trading ideas like this, and if you agree with me, click on the “Agree” button 😉.
See you soon,
Melissa.
Netflix long and chill 🎞️🎥📈After a successful sell I covered in an earlier idea our strategy says its time for a buy on Netflix.
Trade details are shown on the chart.
We're only looking for TP3.
Trade history can be seen below this trade idea too for full transparency.
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I try and share as many ideas as I can as and when I have time. My trades are automated so I am not sat in front of a screen daily.
Jumping on random trade ideas 'willy-nilly' on Trading View trying to find that one trade that you can retire from is not a sustainable way to trade. You might get lucky, but it will always end one way.
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No one likes missing out, do they?
Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this.
The stats for this pair are shown below too.
Thank you.
$AAPL $NFLX $BABA $HD I OptionsSwing WatchlistHD 2H I HD is currently breaking out of this bullish formation with strength. Looking for a break above $313 with a $320 target next week.
AAPL 1D I Held the bullish uptrend established back in September. Unusual options activity was bullish and they bet on a retest of $128 this upcoming week.
NFLX 1H I Trading within a bull flag, we are looking for a break this week give unusual options activity betting on the $495-$500 calls for 06/18.
BABA 1D I Massive falling wedge pattern which could break to the upside before earnings on 08/19. The Chinese giant is more than 30% down from ATH levels. However, there is some sense of renewed hope in the company as US investor Charlie Munger recently disclosed a sizable stake in the company.
Anyone else in Netflix sells 😉 🙌Been in this netflix trade a few days now.
Do we think it'll continue down to the TP line?
No one knows that for sure!
Trade details are shown on the chart.
We're only looking for TP3.
It's been close already! But we stick to the back tested proven objective plan.
Trade history can be seen below this trade idea too for full transparency.
------------------------------------------
I try and share as many ideas as I can as and when I have time. My trades are automated so I am not sat in front of a screen daily.
Jumping on random trade ideas 'willy-nilly' on Trading View trying to find that one trade that you can retire from is not a sustainable way to trade. You might get lucky, but it will always end one way.
------------------------------------------
Please hit the 👍 LIKE button if you like my ideas🙏
Also follow my profile, then you will receive a notification whenever I post a trading idea - so you don't miss them. 🙌
No one likes missing out, do they?
Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this.
The stats for this pair are shown below too.
Thank you.
Discovery DISC.A - Mega Media Content King - HBO etc.The tech giants lack what Discovery has. CONTENT. Game of Thrones & Super Hero fans know what I'm talking about.
It's a new world. The #metaverse & #marijuanamovement. EPIC times.
#gnln
#thegem