Netflix: Update on our long term Buy.This is an update on our NFLX buy position since we posted the following trade in September 2019 when the price was trading on the $250-260 bottom:
We have called for a long term Target of $650 but in the mean-time told more medium term investors to start booking profits near the 385 - 415 Resistance. If you took that trade with us you should be almost +50% in profit. With 1D on a steady Channel Up (RSI = 62.074, MACD = 6.790, Highs/Lows = 8.4729), we think it is a good time to update this position and look at the more short term price action. That resembles the previous time Netflix reached 385. A Golden Cross comes as confirmation. If you are a short term investors book profits within 378.00 - 385.00.
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Netflix
NFLX - I've officially lost it - Why I'm short $NFLXA word of advice because I think this idea is straight up crazy. I'm not sure I'd trade this myself, but if I was bullish on netflix - like 90% of the market appears to be, I'd maybe reduce the size of my position.
So...$NFLX has practically every reason under the sun to go up today:
NASDAQ premarket is way up as is the rest of the market futures.
Netflix crushed their subscriber targets increasing global streaming subscribers by 20% YoY
Earnings per share crushed analyst estimates of $.53 taking in $1.30/share
Quarter sales topped estimates of $5.45B taking in $5.47B
Heck, even average revenue per subscriber was up an extra 9%
With all those glittery stats hitting the news wire yesterday, who in their right mind would consider shorting Netflix?!
The daddie of hacks...that's who...and even I think I might be crazy. Post market, the stock is sitting at $344 and we're working our way through the morning premarket session. Whether that price level holds is doubtful. (Edit: it's already pulled back to $341-2)
So you might ask me, 'Hacky, what's got your knickers in a bunch? NFLX is printing money!' To which I would respond, 'That's what they want you to think.'
Here's what has me thinking something about NFLX doesn't smell right:
NFLX has been dropping at the open of almost every trading session for the last week during the heaviest volume periods. Why? My guess is institutional investors are liquidating some of their positions. Let's face it, earnings surprises really aren't all that surprising with the price action leading up to them. What is surprising is the higher than usual volume that has been acting like an anchor on NFLX's stock price. With so much bullish sentiment and high expectations from earnings - why has the stock gone sideways or even down the last few days???? With this stellar outlook confirmed, John Q. Public isn't going to sell netflix, if anything, you'd expect a stampede of buyers to flood the market - and that's just the stampede the institutions are waiting for to make some big shifts in their positions.
February is looking rather dismal for the market at large, and let's face it - we're overdue for at least a small correction. At the top of that list is the NASDAQ - gaining 38% last year and NFLX practically in sync. The institutions have been selling off Netflix at the start of each session, and it's weighed on the price - which slowly recovered through the late morning and afternoon session each day. Every 'major' time period (9:30-10, 3:30-4) for the last few days has seen big selling pressure or traded sideways. Why during those time periods? Because that's when the institutions can mask their activities.
What I think will happen:
1) NFLX will gap up - how big of a gap is uncertain. Likely between $342-347 would be my best guess.
2) Here comes the head fake and get ready for the whip saw. I think it's highly likely we hit $355-360 at the outset (in the first 5 minutes of trading possibly)...BUT, it'll be short lived. The institutions will then step in and wreck house. We'll see a retracement back down and fill the gap before the stock makes a slight rally in the afternoon session after bouncing off support in the $338 area. Expect the stock to settle back close to where it opens today.
How I'll play it:
1) I'll watch the first minute of the trading day from the sidelines and watch relative volume. If the volume is lower than usual but price is rising, the market is being driven by the fish. I'll likely get a couple calls if the stock shows good momentum and sell them in the $358 range, just prior to completing the gap fill at $360.
2) The volume will be a key indicator - if it's down, and it's obvious the institutions are on the sidelines - what are they waiting for? They're waiting on the price to rise so they can get a premium when the sell off their positions. The second the price gaps get thick to the downside and sell volume ramps up, any long positions are immediately reversed to shorts....expect to ride the stock back down to the $338 level. If that level falls, the uptrend channel going back to september is the next big support in the $320 range. From there what happens likely depends on the market at large. If we see the pullback in february that I think we will, it'd be time to cash in the NASDAQ positions.
NFLX BEATS ALL EST. AND EPS BY 150% WOW BUT DONT MOVE ! WHAT !!! Netflix Inc. (NFLX) revealed a profit for its fourth quarter that rose from last year.
The company's earnings totaled $0.59 billion, or $1.30 per share. This compares with $0.13 billion, or $0.30 per share, in last year's fourth quarter.
Analysts had expected the company to earn $0.53 per share, according to figures compiled by Thomson Reuters. Analysts' estimates typically exclude special items.
The company's revenue for the quarter rose 30.5% to $5.47 billion from $4.19 billion last year.
-Earnings (Q4): $0.59 Bln. vs. $0.13 Bln. last year. -EPS (Q4): $1.30 vs. $0.30 last year. -Analysts Estimate: $0.53 -Revenue (Q4): $5.47 Bln vs. $4.19 Bln last year.
My views is the share will keep rising as the fears were clearly overblown from competitors. But somehow after-market do not t-react to the news yet
Lets see tomorrow to get a better feel from this excellent news !!! BRAVO NETFLIX
Netflix: Trend Reversal Signal and New Buy OpportunityThe price reached 340.00 resistance level. We have a trend reversal based on a bearish divergence. I don't think we will see a new bearish trend, but a correction movement will be possible and logical. In order to get confirmation that the market is going to move downward, the price will have to break the local uptrend line.
If we talk about new buy opportunities, I would like to wait for a reversal signal from SMA100, SMA200, and the main uptrend line. The market looks bullish in the long run, and we should focus on how to join the uptrend in the right zone.
Disclaimer!
This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only! You can use the information from the post to make your own trading plan for the market. But you must do your own research and use it as the priority. Trading is risky, and it is not suitable for everyone. Only you can be responsible for your trading.
Netflix (Boom or Bust?)There is no doubt that gauging the direction of Netflix's stock has been one of the most challenging tasks for analysts over the last 2 years. The big picture shows the formation of a rising wedge, which is similar to other tech stocks. But price has violated the trendlines so many times that we've had to cast doubt on the validity of the upward trend. Netflix is currently trading below the bottom line of the wedge, while other tech stocks are now pushing above the top lines of their wedges. Is this a bearish sign for nflx? On the plus side, price has formed a large bullish flag. Will this invalidate the bearish picture?
I'll be watching to see if the stock can break to the upside over the coming weeks. If we get a breakout, we'll likely see new highs before the tech bubble pops toward the end of the year. If it fails, it will increase the odds that we will see a breakdown of the bullish flag toward the end of the year (another possibility is a brief but explosive breakout to the upside toward the end of the year, before a very sharp pullback).
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NQ1! Focused on a Long and ShortNQ1!
My trading thoughts for early in the week entails both a long and a short. With the markets at extremes, I need to be prepared with both case scenarios. In my opinion, this should be the case always for any trade with the key to knowing what to expect from either side....so this is no different. Trade in and trade out, rinse and repeat.
These trade areas for me are on a first come basis, meaning if any of those areas hit the other trade ideas are off the table.
I don't know if this is a HI in from last week, but if we go to test it again, I'm short upon a false breakout in the RED zone.
If we go lower from here, I'm long at one of two zones in GREEN.
If neither GREEN zones hold up, it could be momentum move down to 8500 and I will trade accordingly.
*These are my trade ideas and I may or may not trade them depending on price movement leading up to that point. Please consider only as an opinion and not a recommendation.
Netflix: 2020 Target Price @ $400Contrary to what people try to say, Netflix as a business, is doing adequate enough for their stock to continue to rise. Their subscription base remains in-tact and I have put a 400 price tag on the stock by year-end. Based on how much liquidity there is out there, I cannot rule-out a 450 price tag, however I am not forecasting it for 2020.
Technically speaking, this stock is somewhat volatile, but overall bullish. A failed double bottom was formed initially, and instead, created a higher low. The end result here is a classic triangular wedge prior to a break-out which should be sometime in late January to early February.
Big US tech like Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, etc, etc, will have a great year (again). In-fact, if Trump wins in 2020, US tech (specifically the big names), could have as good of a year as 2019, as long as US-China trade remains neutralized or positive.
Amazon and Facebook will both have fantastic years.
US-Iran remains short-term noise that may push the markets flat or down for January and perhaps February, however, I am expecting sharper gains come Q2 and Q3 before some more volatility in Q4 near the election. Again though, if Trump wins in 2020 there will be yet another Santa rally in Q4.
- zSplit
"Netflix moving as expected" by ThinkingAntsOk4H Chart Explanation:
- Price broke the Ascending Trendline and started the up move.
- Price reached our first target on the Resistance Zone.
- Now, price is on a correction before going up towards our second target on the Resistance Zone.
Weekly Vision:
Daily Vision:
The Five Best Performing Stocks in the S&P 500 This DecadeAs the decade nears its end, we decided to chart the five best performing stocks in the S&P 500.
The best performing stock of the decade was Netflix. It was up over 4000%. Back in 2010, Netflix was still mailing DVDs to their subscriber base. Today, they are a global brand distributing content to all corners of the world. How do you think Netflix will perform in the next decade?
The other four best performing stocks in the S&P 500 are MarketAxess Holdings (MKTX), Abiomed (ABMD), TransDigm Group (TDG), and Broadcom Inc (AVGO). Each of them are shown on this chart.
In the coming days, we'll share more charts and ideas about the decade including other asset classes like crypto, forex, and more. Make sure to like this post if you enjoyed it and please comment with your feedback and thoughts.
You can also create your own chart about the decade and share it with everyone on TradingView! We hope you're getting excited for 2020.
NETFLIX - DAILY CHARTHi, today we are going to talk about Netflix and its current landscape.
Netflix is poised to receive increasing attention from the market as relevant events are taking place. The company reported its international revenue and subscription data, showing a strong results overseas, the numbers don't lie, amid the ongoing streaming war, the company has managed to continue to push forward, due to its global penetration, an advantage that Netflix holds over its adversaries, that is still establishing a global representation, and can give an edge for Netflix on the sector and solidify its investors trust.
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"Netflix going up" by ThinkingAntsOkDaily Chart Explanation:
- Price bounced on the Weekly Ascending Trendline.
- Price broke the Descending Trendline.
- Bullish CCI crossing -100.
- Price made a correction and, now, it has potential to move up towards the Resistance Zone.
Weekly Vision:
Updates coming soon!
Netflix’s Long-Overdue ConsolidationThe media company has seen mostly uninterrupted heights since 2013.
With the release of Disney+, Netflix might need time to consolidate as the saturated video-streaming market might see revenue drop from
The zoomed-out monthly chart shows the MACD and RSI looking to bounce up, but the daily chart indicates a downward trend.
Netflix is using corporate synergy to reel in content with Nickelodeon
media.netflix.com
This is an article from 2016 suggesting that the video-stream market is oversaturated, and since that time YouTube, Hulu, Amazon, Disney, Sony (Who’s PlayStation TV was discontinued), Starz, and HBO have all tried to grab hold of an audience. Combining this with competition with Roku and Firesticks as well, this upward trend might have hit a roof.
www.strategyanalytics.com
Netflix Long Term IdeaGood evening ladies and gents,
I have had this pattern drawn out since early-mid July and I believe I even posted it a month or two ago as well. But reposting it once again to give an update. This idea remains a very real possibility but it could take months to even a year or so before reaching the pcz of the bullish Bat. The Pc(Zone) would be between $119 and $138. It would be badass to look at this post a year and a half from now and see it hit the pcz and start playing out.
Just an idea for now.
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