Netflix
Selling resumed Today in NFLX/ NetflixIt is profit booking for sure, there is clearly a Red TrapZone and Red UMVD in place for now. So only shorts are active now for Netflix.
TrapZone and UMV combined together are complete automated technical analysis indicator package. You get to clearly see in Realtime the market trend strength and volume confirmation.
Netflix's Legal Triumph and Ad-Driven Ascension
In a recent legal showdown, streaming giant Netflix emerged victorious in a California federal court, successfully defeating a shareholder lawsuit that accused the company of concealing the impact of account-sharing on its growth trajectory. The lawsuit, filed by a Texas-based investment trust in May 2022, sought damages for investors who purchased Netflix shares between January 2021 and April 2022. Despite the significant blow to the stock value and a subsequent drop in subscribers, U.S. District Judge Jon Tigar ruled that the plaintiffs failed to provide evidence supporting their claims.
Legal Victory and Investor Response:
The judge's decision, delivered on Friday, underscores the importance of substantiated claims in legal battles. While Netflix shares initially faced a downturn, losing a third of their value, the ruling has provided a reprieve for the streaming giant. The door, however, remains open for the investors to refile the lawsuit if they can bolster their claims with additional facts.
Netflix's Stock Rollercoaster:
The legal victory is just one chapter in Netflix's rollercoaster journey in the stock market. Between January and April 2022, the company's shares experienced a drastic decline of around 50%. The drop was triggered by revelations that account-sharing and increased competition had hindered new subscriptions. Former CEO Reed Hastings attributed some of the challenges to the complexities of interpreting subscription trends amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
Ad-Supported Triumph:
Amidst the stock market turbulence, Netflix is finding success in an unexpected corner—the ad-supported realm. Recent reports indicate that Netflix's ad-based plan has surged, surpassing 23 million global monthly active users. This substantial growth, revealed by President of Advertising Amy Reinhard at the Variety Entertainment Summit at CES 2024, marks a notable increase from the reported 15 million users just over two months ago.
Engaging the Audience:
Reinhard emphasized the robust engagement levels among users on ad-supported plans, with a staggering 85% streaming on the platform for more than two hours daily. This data suggests that the ad-supported model is resonating well with Netflix's audience, providing a fresh perspective on the evolving dynamics of streaming preferences.
Pricing Strategy and Market Penetration:
Netflix's pricing strategy for its ad-supported plan is noteworthy, with the Basic With Ads plan priced at $6.99 per month in the United States—less than half the cost of the Standard plan at $15.49 per month. This strategic pricing could be a key factor in attracting a broader audience to the ad-supported tier, as ad-tier subscriptions reportedly account for approximately 30% of all new signups in the 12 countries where the platform has been launched.
Microsoft Partnership and Technological Advancements:
Netflix's success in the ad-supported arena is further amplified by its ad-tech deal with Microsoft. The partnership designates Microsoft as Netflix's global advertising technology and sales partner, playing a pivotal role in the triumph of Netflix's advertising strategy and technology infrastructure.
Conclusion:
As Netflix navigates legal challenges and charts a new course in the ad-supported landscape, the streaming giant continues to demonstrate resilience and innovation. The legal victory provides a foundation for future endeavors, while the surge in ad-supported subscriptions showcases Netflix's adaptability in meeting evolving consumer demands. The company's strategic pricing, coupled with a robust technological infrastructure, positions it for continued success in an ever-changing streaming landscape.
NETFLIX: This rebound isn't a buy opportunity.NFLX is staging a rebound on the 1D MA50 on a marginally bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 56.295, MACD = 4.710, ADX = 36.125). We don't consider this a buy opportunity as even if a slightly HH is made, the 1D RSI is showing a Bearish Divergence on a Channel Down, the same kind of bearish pattern that started the bearish waves in the two HH prior. Consequeantly we expect a pullback to at least the bottom of the Channel Up (dashed) or the HL trendline (which will be -25.25% from the top) depending on when the 1D RSI crosses under the 30.000 level (oversold), which was the buy trigger on the last two bottom opportunities. We have a long term TP = 550.00.
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APPLE BACK TO 182 SOLID POSITION Long Position:
Key Points:
Strong Fundamentals: Apple has a history of solid financial performance, driven by its diverse product ecosystem, including iPhones, iPads, Macs, wearables, and services. The company's consistent revenue and earnings growth make it an attractive option for long-term investors.
Services Segment Growth: Apple's services segment, including the App Store, Apple Music, and Apple TV+, has been a significant contributor to revenue. Continued expansion and growth in the services sector can provide a more stable revenue stream for the company.
Innovation and Product Pipeline: Apple's commitment to innovation, evidenced by new product releases and technological advancements, keeps the brand at the forefront of consumer technology. Anticipated releases and advancements in products like the iPhone and wearables can drive excitement and demand.
Share Buybacks and Dividends: Apple has a history of returning value to shareholders through share buybacks and dividends. Share repurchases can contribute to stock price appreciation, and dividends provide income to investors.
ADOBE LONG 620 LONG 620 TP
Long Position:
Adobe has consistently demonstrated strong financial performance, driven by its leading position in the creative software and digital experience markets. The company's subscription-based model provides a reliable revenue stream, and its innovative product portfolio continues to attract a wide user base.
Key Points:
Earnings Growth: Adobe has shown impressive earnings growth in recent quarters, fueled by increasing demand for its creative cloud services. Positive trends in earnings can drive stock appreciation.
Subscription Model: Adobe's shift to a subscription-based model ensures a steady stream of recurring revenue. This stability may appeal to long-term investors seeking a reliable growth story.
Digital Transformation: Adobe is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing digital transformation across industries. As businesses and individuals increasingly rely on digital tools for creativity and marketing, Adobe's products remain essential.
Innovation: Adobe consistently invests in research and development, ensuring a pipeline of new and improved products. The company's commitment to innovation may drive future revenue growth and market share expansion.
Netflix in large Cup and Handle PatternNetflix appears to me to be completing a large cup and handle pattern. The initial peak of the cup appears at a price level of about $485 while the base appears to be at a low of $345. This price difference is $140, so I suggest the possibility that a new price target for NFLX should be at $625.
The handle has just been broken in the upward price direction and I am trading this to that price target unless invalidation occurs. I am watching for the stock price to hold the $485 support that was once previously a resistance to confirm the trend and avoid invalidating the technical formation.
NETFLIX Expect this rally to be extended.Almost a month ago (October 31) we gave a strong buy signal (chart below) on Netflix (NFLX) with the price reacting immediately having entered a non-stop rise:
Due to the sheer aggression of the current bullish leg of the Megaphone as compared to its previous ones though, we have to downgrade our medium-term target to $580, which will make a perfect +69.30% rise from the bottom as the July 18 High. Their RSI patterns are quite similar, though obvious that the current is more aggressive, hence will correct equally aggressively at some point, probably early-mid January 2024.
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NFLX ~ Snapshot TA (Daily / Nov 2023)NASDAQ:NFLX chart mapping/analysis.
Bullish recovery back into ascending parallel channel (green).
Bull target(s)
Breakout descending parallel channel (white) + descending trend-line confluence resistance
Overhead gap fills (~470 / ~506.93 / ~566.88)
Golden Pocket Fib + gap fill (~506.93) confluence resistance zone
Bear target(s)
Underlying gap fills (~412.52 / ~354.79 / ~341.38)
Ascending trend-line support (light blue dotted)
38.2% Fib
23.6% Fib
Netflix Surges 28% Since Q3 EarningsNetflix's stock in 2021 has been a rollercoaster, starting with a strong 62% rise by July, nearing the $500 mark, before experiencing a sharp downturn. The stock fell below the crucial 200-day moving average to around $370, marking a significant 28% drop, but found some support at the weekly 50-day average near $350.
The Q3 earnings report was a turning point, with actual earnings of $3.73 surpassing the estimated $3.49. This led to a positive market reaction, with the stock opening 16% higher post-announcement and climbing 28% since then. The surge in earnings was primarily due to robust subscriber growth, a key indicator of the company's future financial health and stock potential.
Looking ahead, Netflix faces major resistance levels, first at the $500 psychological mark, and then at last year's high of $609. Overcoming these barriers could signal further bullish trends. As of November, the stock is showing strong performance with an 8% increase, adding to the positive outlook among investors.
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netflix approaching a big jumping pointHoly smokes, this is lining up for one huge final pump. If she holds 365, there is potential to rocket all the way up to 436. It won't be in 1 night, you'll have time to buy and sell, but it won't be a lot of time. You'll likely start seeing big AH movements, and a bunch of solid green days in a row as it climbs.
There is a chance it breaks down to 333, but again, there should be time to exit and reset your trade before it gets all the way down there. I would favor the upside pretty heavily on this trade, however, WAIT until it bounces off trend. If it hits the red trend, enter short on the rejection. If it climbs down and hits the green, go long on the support bounce.
Apple - Sick Fundamentals Mean a New All Time HighI have recent calls on the SPX
SPX ES - Welcome To The Fourth Quarter Rodeo
The Nasdaq
Nasdaq Futes - You Wanted a Dip For That 'Santa Rally,' Aye?
SPY
SPY - Did We Bottom, Or Is Manipulation Coming?
And Tesla
Tesla - Remember, The Ponzi Always Continues
Which generally have a bullish-into-year-end thesis accompanying them, but caution that an October bottom for the second year in a row and a mega three day rally to start November may be something of a trap.
When it comes to Apple, we have reservations that we topped under $200, for really obvious reasons, especially considering that on the monthly, the last three months of bearish price action haven't been that bearish.
Yet, because the weekly shows us that there are two bars under $150 and $140 from last year that never printed a low, that those areas are probably protected until Apple starts to seriously deflate and enter an end-of-life cycle bear market.
If Apple is going to enter an end of life cycle bear market, the MMs will 100% take out the $200 range and sell everything there first.
So, fundamentally, why would Apple be at the end of its life? The answer is simple: the company, all these years, wed itself to the Chinese Communist Party, which is the scourge of humanity, The Beast, and the benefactor to Babylon (Shanghai).
There's lots of really horrific data involving Apple numbers and the Chinese market right now, and the CCP under Xi Jinping is also rushing to replace other phone companies with domestic product, like the notorious Huawei.
The elephant in the room when it comes to cellular and computer purchases in China is that they're down because there are less people in China as a result of the enormous damage the novel pneumonia pandemic that originated in Wuhan City has caused.
SARS 1 in 2003 was covered up by the Party. The CCP made it seem like only a few thousand people died, when in reality, some accounts have stated that several million people died.
Today, the Party still claims that less than 122,000 people died from COVID-19, despite China being the epicentre of the disease.
You don't need an expert, or even a calculator, to figure out what's really going on and why the Chinese economy is in trouble.
What's at stake for Xi and his faction is the 24-year-long organ harvesting genocide and persecution against Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners.
Although Xi has not participated in the persecution, and has, to the contrary, been killing via his Anti-corruption Campaign the Jiang Zemin faction who started and maintained the persecution all these years, the problem is that Xi is the head of the Party.
When you kill a dragon, you decapitate it. But first, you start with its tail. And it's telling that former Premier Li Keqiang died a few weeks ago, merely in his 60s, at the hands of "an heart attack."
So the fundamentals on Apple are bad because of China. So, with great faith in the principle of reversed logic, we actually look for longs with the chance to sell over $200.
But the charts, as they stand, are not giving us a long signal.
Everything, including Apple, bounced so hard in the first three days of November, and for Apple this came on the back of an earnings report, that we have to view the situation with major reservations, expecting that the candle painting of the low for the monthly bar has not yet been completed.
Last October, Apple pretended to bottom, pretended to double bottom in November, and then gave it all back and set the low of the year at the end of 2022, and all of this happened while the indexes had properly bottomed in October.
There was none of that "Magnificent 7" talk back then.
So, how to trade this? I think it's wiser to go long on a breakout over $183 in a size that allows you to take partials at $198, $205, and $215 than it is to have bought in the last three days.
And if we do dump, where we're looking for reversal patterns is at or below the April of 2022 low at $159.80~.
But if we're about to moon for manipulation, we're actually likely to see a sweep just below the current November low of $167.90.
So long as you can buy there without getting expired worthless on some short dated options, you'll have the best chance to ride the manipulation wave.
But be careful. When it's time for the CCP to fall, all the bigger dominoes go with it, because they're all really lesser dominoes.
Gap down overnight because of the time difference between Beijing and Manhattan means margin calls that scale in brutality, because Wall Street won't be in the mood to go risk on anything ever again.
Nor will it have the money or the breath to.
The Netflix: Streaming The Stock's PotentialKEY POINTS
a. Netflix now has 15 million subscribers in its ad-supported tier.
b. The company is also rolling out new ad products.
c. The success of the new subscription tier is just one of the reasons the stock has surged this year.
The leading streamer just hit a key milestone with its ad business.
Netflix (NFLX 1.80%) was one of the best-performing stocks of the 2010s, but for much of the current decade, the once-meteoric growth stock has struggled to achieve liftoff.
The company got a temporary boost from the pandemic, only to give it all back and then some when the economy reopened in 2022, and it lost subscribers two quarters in a row. Since then, the streaming leader has regrouped, launching initiatives that some investors had long asked for, such as adding an ad-supported tier and cracking down on password sharing.
The results of those moves have been overwhelmingly successful with the stock up 47% year to date, even as many of its streaming peers like Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery are trading near 52-week lows.
With the help of paid sharing, Netflix has added nearly 15 million new subscribers over the last two quarters, beating its total additions from the previous five quarters. The stock jumped following the third-quarter earnings report in October on strong subscriber growth as well.
Building on this recent momentum, Netflix provided an update Wednesday that shows its new ad-based strategy is paying off.
A key milestone
It's been one year since the company launched its ad-supported tier in a handful of its biggest markets, and the company said the new service has now signed up 15 million subscribers, up from just 5 million in May. That news should not only tamp down concerns that growth from this tier has been weaker than expected but also show that the ad-supported option is clearly resonating with subscribers. Additionally, it's impressive to see those gains coming at a time when much of the digital advertising industry is struggling.
That figure represents more than half of net subscriber additions over the last year, though some of the ad-tier subscribers likely traded down from the more expensive ad-free tiers, especially after Netflix just raised prices on some of its plans in the U.S., U.K., and France.
Netflix has also refined its advertising product since launch and now offers five different ad lengths, ranging from 10 seconds to 60 seconds. It also offers targeting to mobile devices as well as options like more genres, time of day, and new audience demographics. Downloads are expected to be available by the end of the week, making Netflix the only ad-supported streamer to offer downloads.
The company has more new features planned for next year, including a binge-watching bonus that gives ad-tier subscribers an ad-free episode after they've watched three episodes in a row. It will also begin offering QR codes in ads and is expanding its partnerships program globally, allowing advertisers to sponsor certain shows.
Netflix's ad-supported tier may cannibalize some ad-free subscribers, but that's part of the company's strategy. Offering ads gives it cover to raise prices on ad-free tiers, as it just did, allowing the company to make more money from the ad-free side of the business (with the idea that the ad-supported tier should be revenue-neutral compared to the ad-free subscription, as it has been for Hulu).
The ad-tier option also capitalizes on massive existing demand from advertisers. As former CEO Reed Hastings noted in an Oct. 2022 earnings call, advertisers have been left behind by the transition to streaming and are anxious to follow the eyeballs that have already gravitated over to streaming services.
With more than 200 million subscribers globally, intimate knowledge of their viewing habits, and the ability to perform precise targeting, Netflix can offer advertisers much more than a traditional linear TV platform.
Why it's a buy
A little more than a year ago, investors seemed to think the growth story at Netflix was over. However, the recent rebound and strength from paid sharing and advertising shows the streamer's second act is well underway.
The company forecast subscriber additions of around 9 million in the current quarter, showing the recent momentum should continue, and its subscription business model means that incremental revenue flows through to the bottom line. Indeed, management sees operating margin improving from 20% this year to 22% to 23% in 2024.
If Netflix can continue to deliver subscriber growth, there's room for profits to go significantly higher. The success of the ad-supported tier will only make that easier.
[EN] Netflix at all-time highs // GaliortiTrading NASDAQ:NFLX in late July attacked the 61.8% Fibonacci of the entire previous decline since November 2021 . It pulled back to its liquidity zone between $370-385 from which it has made a new impulse. Final target: new all-time highs .
1 M
On a long term chart we note that NASDAQ:NFLX in July 2022 rested on its bullish trendline to develop a new bullish leg . Its final target for the next few years would be around $2,000.
1 W
In the shorter term on a weekly chart we observe that NASDAQ:NFLX is developing a symmetrical triangle that is highly likely to break to the upside . The minimum target for such a breakout would take it to around $580 . It should be remembered that the first obstacle after that breakout will be the 61.8% Fibonacci ($492) so it is likely to make a pull-back to the breakout line. In addition, the bearish gap from the end of July will be a resistance to be taken into account.
The 470-495$ is a great liquidity zone that will allow it to perform a new bullish wave with a first target at 580$ (target of the broken triangle) and a second target at new all-time highs.
1 D
The company's third quarter results have led to a large bullish gap with a large volume (the second largest of the year), this translates a great strength as demonstrated by the verticality of the rise. It is logical that in the coming days there could be a correction as prices hit the medium-term downtrend line . It will be a healthy and necessary correction to develop a new momentum that will allow it to definitively leave the 61.8% Fibonacci level .
Pablo G.
NETFLIX Can it realistically reach $600 in this environment?Netflix (NFLX) has established itself above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since the aggressive price jump of October 19 on its bullish earnings. Still, the price is failing to break above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the blue Channel Down and technically the longer it fails to do so, the higher the chances become of a rejection. Until that happens, we can see that during similar 1D MA50 consolidations after price jumps in the recent past, Netflix rallied more. Now it has the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) as its long-term Support, hence a potential new rally can be even stronger.
The previous 3 medium-term rallies have hit (or marginally missed) the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, so that is our target in case the price breaks above the top of the Channel Down. $600 is technically fair as it is on the Higher Highs trend-line of the Bullish Megaphone. Time-wise, this target is achievable by January 2024 as this is what the Sine Waves suggest. As you can see all 3 previous Higher Highs have been within the peak spectrum of the Sine Wave.
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Netflix Surges 16% Post Earnings!Netflix's stock surged 16% due to a 70% spike in subscribers for its new ad-supported tier, adding over 8 million users.
This pushed the global subscriber count to 247 million, marking the largest growth since Q2 2020, a period influenced by pandemic-driven home entertainment demand.
Financially, Q3 earnings exceeded expectations: projected at $3.49, they reached $3.73.
Although the stock previously neared a concerning $300, positive earnings pushed it back up past the $400 level.
Yet, a challenge remains: breaking the $423 resistance level from June 2018.
Still, with a 7% rise in October and a 37% annual increase, the outlook remains optimistic.
NETFLIX Up +18% today, sending a message to the market.Netflix made a huge price jump today, opening on the MA50 (1d) for the first time in more than 1 month.
It remains under the Falling Resistance, but held the Rising Support trend lines of the Bullish Megaphone.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy after the price crosses over the Falling Resistance or if it hits the MA200 (1d) again.
Targets:
1. 508.45 (January 20th 2020 gap).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) made a huge oversold jump. Similar jumps can be seen on March 9th 2023 and May 9th 2022, both market bottoms.
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