Netflix. Will The Bulls Defend The 0.382? Best Load Up Zones.Current Market 79 Billion
Up an impressive 200,000% over the last 20 years, Netflix reached an all time high of $700.99 back in November 2021.
It has since corrected a whopping 77% and hovers around the $165-$180 range.
The biggest correction Netflix had to endure was back in 2011-2012, it reached an all time high of around $43 before a staggering 82.5% drop.
If we pull a fib from its 2002 low, to its ETH in 2011, we can see that price found support at the 0.382 level. (Fib pulled from body close to body close)
I've then pulled a fib from the 0.382 to its November 2021 ETH. A similar 82.5% correction would place it once again in the 0.382 range.
We also have a lifelong trendline approaching that could also be tested as support.
If the 0.382 doesn't hold, long term bulls should look for buys at the next fib levels.
RSI is at record lows , Stochastic oversold. We could have a little rally before testing the 0.382/trendline as we did back in 2012.
We could even just rally from here, only time will tell! If your bullish long term, DCAing is best.
Here's an extract from from the Q1 shareholders growth outlook report sent out in April.
In the near term though, we’re not growing revenue as fast as we’d like. COVID clouded the picture by
significantly increasing our growth in 2020, leading us to believe that most of our slowing growth in 2021
was due to the COVID pull forward. Now, we believe there are four main inter-related factors at work.
First, it’s increasingly clear that the pace of growth into our underlying addressable market (broadband homes)
is partly dependent on factors we don’t directly control, like the uptake of connected TVs
(since the majority of our viewing is on TVs), the adoption of on-demand entertainment, and data costs.
We believe these factors will keep improving over time, so that all broadband households will be potential Netflix customers.
Second, in addition to our 222m paying households, we estimate that Netflix is being shared with over 100m additional households,
including over 30m in the UCAN region. Account sharing as a percentage of our paying membership hasn’t changed much over the years,
but, coupled with the first factor, means it’s harder to grow membership in many markets - an issue that was obscured by our COVID growth.
Third, competition for viewing with linear TV as well as YouTube, Amazon, and Hulu has been robust for the last 15 years.
However, over the last three years, as traditional entertainment companies realized streaming is the future, many new streaming services have also launched.
While our US television viewing share, for example, has been steady to up according to Nielsen, we want to grow that share faster.
Higher view share is an indicator of higher satisfaction, which supports higher retention and revenue.
Fourth, macro factors, including sluggish economic growth, increasing inflation , geopolitical events such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,
and some continued disruption from COVID are likely having an impact as well.
Hope this helps, yours truly-
Thomas Shelby, Shelby Company Limited.
Speculative Setup, DYOR. Allow 3-24 months for this idea.
Netflixlong
NETFLİX BULLİSH CAN COME!!!Hello guys,
I wanna share my idea about netflix.I think rise will come after this EMA cutting. Why bullish will come? Let's answer this question.
Reasons of rise possibility:
1)We are on the very strong support.This will affect investor for buy netflix.
2) 5 length EMA can cut 20 length EMA at the future days.
3)We see mismatch between MACD and Chart.(Most important signal in my opinion)
This reasons can affect investors for Buy netflix share.
I show STOP LOSS area with ATR strategy on the chart.
Actually I think, This seems good oppurtunity for Buy netflix share.
NOT İNVESTEMENT ADVİCE THATS ONLY MY OPİNİONS.
Thanks
NFLX:If it looks like a bottom. . . ?!!Netflix
Short Term - We look to Buy a break of 210.00 (stop at 158.96)
The bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart is positive for sentiment. A bullish reverse Head and Shoulders is forming. This is positive for sentiment and the uptrend has potential to return. Further upside is expected to close the gap between 248.70 and 333.22.
Our profit targets will be 329.00 and 400.00
Resistance: 240.00 / 330.00 / 400.00
Support: 160.00 / 125.00 / 81.00
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Buy stop!I definitely like that bullish momentum with volume and although it did not dip to my level rather it bounced on the 30m ssb. I will put a buy stop at 198 so that I am only taken in if right and stop 184. The ultimate target is 250 zone but will add and remove as appropriate. The R is 3.58 if I take it all the way up;)
NefliX:Day trade?. . . .which could turn swingTurned mildly bullish on Netflix on 31 May with a tk cross. However the volume was not convincing so today will be doing just a day trade to test my bullish thesis. If successful then my day trade can potentially turn into a swing. On the monthly we had a bullish hammer caused by the monthly lagging failure to cross down the monthly SSB. If this persists then we might have a pullback to the 233-240 zone. The streak of strong bearish months from November means whatever long position should be taken with extreme caution as the overall trend remains bearish and we are attempting to catch knives so to speak.
For the day trade I am targeting the daily kijun zone for a bounce and will be bullish from there with a tight stop. I need to see a good conviction bullish 30min candle bouncing from that red zone or somewhere close to that. The stop will be just below that zone.
NFLXNetflix shares have fallen sharply recently due to bad news about the company's users falling
But that reduction is too much, and I expect it to have at least one retreat towards the $ 333 and $ 478 targets.
MACD and RSI indicators are in the floor area and sellers do not seem to be able to reduce the price and the price in the area is between $ 180 and $ 200.
Netflix same drops three times beforeLooking back in history we have seen three similar drops like this one before. And prices have bounced very nicely up from that area.
This is the time the rich get richer, meanwhile the poor get poorer as they close their losses instead of adding more.
I am pretty sure we will go down more but it's still a good opportunity not happening very often.
Netflix, Inc. - Long tradeEver since it hit a high of 701.0 back in November 2021, Netflix has fallen dramatically to trade at 162.71, its lowest level since August 2017. Looking at the daily chart, a clear 5-wave decline can be seen, pointing to an imminent correction. While we do not rule out small losses still, we recommend to go long at market with a stop at 124.0, targeting 280.0, the 50% retracement of the 5th wave.
A corrective bounce for wave B is inevitable for #NFLXTimeframe: Weekly
Price may find bottom to complete the bearish impulsive wave a at 0.236 fibonacci retracement of the previous general motive phase wave 1.
When this level holds and this analysis be validated, price may then resume its corrective bounce for wave b.
#elliotwaveforecast
@marketpainterPH
Visually presenting the basic general representation of the principle of Elliott Wave Theory.
NETFLIX WHERE IS THE BOTTOM?Netflix, Inc. provides entertainment services. It offers TV series, documentaries, feature films, and mobile games across various genres and languages. The company provides members the ability to receive streaming content through a host of internet-connected devices, including TVs, digital video players, television set-top boxes, and mobile devices. It also provides DVDs-by-mail membership services in the United States. The company has approximately 222 million paid members in 190 countries.
Right now Netflix, it seems they reach a saturation of subscribers and even start to lose some.
Quarter 1 report of Netflix came and they lose around 200.000 members worldwide. A worrying shift for a business which sustained growth never interrupted for over 10 years.
This caused by new and strong competition along with the covid restrictions worldwide.
I do not think, income will be problem for now since they cancel productions that seems redundant. They will cut costs.
Also price may have found the bottom already.
This week, investors seems to think this levels are good for buying.
In the "weekly" chart, price hit the bottom of Bolinger Bands with the RSI below oversold area. MACD is in the deep negative zone with going deeper. If selling pressure stops for the next couple of weeks MACD line will probably cut the Signal line which means buy if we are still near bottom of Bolinger Band.
Important support levels
190 is highly important as price seems to bottom there this week.
180 if 190 cant hold it.
These levels can be considered as stop loss zones.
Important resistance levels
203
210
221
240
262
These levels can be seen as take profit zones.
Thanks.
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NetFlix needs to Attention nowNetflix is so ready to start a Reverse and Rise Price Cause it falls more than 50% of Price and now on a Strong support that can push price to up, so Buy carefully and buy it in 4 Step.
Buy@ 210$, 180$, 140$, 90$
Stop loss@ 80$
Take Profit@ 700$, 950$, 1200$
it's so Important to buy Step by step and not be Greedy and buy More Volume in 90$
Netflex Montly view. Here we can see Netflix is regularly LL even in monthly TF its very low.
As we can see In in June 2011 to Dec 2011 Market crash 70 to 80% then its conver now we are expecting the same sitautuion near its 0.786%% retracement level and total fall of 74% we will see Netflix at 1000$ in comming 2 to 5 years.
Netflix Analysts forget microeconomics principles... Hysteria??Netflix Q2 2022 Earnings Report: ir.netflix.net
Key Takeaways of Netflix Earning Report
> Lowest P/E ration in 10 years of operating.
> Revenue is UP 2.06% from last quarter.
> Revenue is UP 9.8% from Q2 of 2021
> Operating Margin of 25.1% is UP 19.1% from the last 4 Quarter average.
> Diluted EPS of $3.53 is UP 25.6% from the last 4 Quarter average.
> Global subscriptions is 6.7% UP from Q1 2021
> Cash Flow is strong.
> Netflix Content is still Great. Streaming market share for total US TV time has risen 0.4% in a 10 month period. That is factoring all the new cheaper competitors entering the Market.
> Net Margin has Been growing at a constant and rapid pace.
With the Financials briefly covered above, here are some of the key thoughts to keep in mind.
Why are financial "Analysts/reporters" trumpeting on about the around 2 million lost subscribers?
The answer is that they have not read the Financials. Their understanding of the streaming market is limited to subscriber count as the sole Variable to take into account. This is the unfortunate result of an incentive, to hold one reason or aspect as the sole driver of the streaming business.
>> The microeconomic 101 principle should have made it clear that as Netflix prices are raised there will be less demand.
>> What is more important is that the FINANCIAL inflows, more than make up for the lost 2 million subscribers.
The demand is Inelastic and therefore the price rise, was the right decision from a shareholder & business perspective.
>>> I will be DCA into this oversold discount, increasing my Netflix position in my portfolio. With the long term in mind, that Netflix is a main pillar in the continuously growing streaming sector<<<
Not financial advice, just an investor/trader's opinion. Who is looking for the best reward to risk In this turbulent market.
Check out my AMD analysis if you liked this Idea:
The big crash on Netflix!!!Netflix
During after market hours Netflix lost -25%.
I will be lookig for entry below 200USD.
On the first level around 255USD should be some reaction, but it's still expensive for me.
The level around 189USD is much better and there I will have small entry.
The masive reaction I am expecting on the level around 117USD - it's also -80% from ATH.