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NAIL a homebuilding leveraged ETF rising from support LONGNAIL on a 14 minute chart tested the support at the rising trendline confluent with the mean anchored VWAP and has bounced and crossed over the latter. Relative strength lines are crossing over the 50 level and the relative volume is showing a gradual rise. This is the beginning of homebuilding season after all. Mortgage rates might be getting a cut. I will take a long trade here expecting a swing trade for a few months. Targets are on the chart. They are based on the resistance rising trendline as well as the upper VWAP bands.
AMEX:NAILLong
by AwesomeAvani
1
MM29(b) - Existing Home Sales Versus New Home Sales U.S. Existing Home Sales & New Home Sales Comparing the Charts When you look at both charts and compare them you can see that between June 2022 and Sept 2023 the decreasing EXISTING home sales negatively correlated with the increase in NEW home sales. This would make surface level sense given the lack of existing homes being available creating a need for new housing. In recent months there has been a sharp divergence in the opposite direction, particularly in NEW home sales, which plunged from 717k in Sept 2023 to 590k in Nov 2023. EXISTING Home Sales increased marginally from 3.79m in Oct 2023 to 3.82m in Nov 2023. Is this a turning point? Obviously a combination of factors are at work here and its not just existing supply coming to the market that might be disrupting new home sales or vice versa but its interesting seeing this correlation and its something to keep an eye on for investors and policy makers. Sale of brand new homes creates a lot of economic activity and if sales are declining significantly whilst existing homes are starting to come back onto the market, one would presume it would stress the housing market and the economy. We may need reduced interest rates sooner rather than later to help fan the flames of the new housing market, or maybe its time the market takes a breather? What do you think? It certainly adds to the argument for lower rates sooner from the Federal Reserve to "soften the landing" or that divergence noted today. Each Chart is covered separately in todays Macro Monday PUKA
FRED:EXHOSLUSM495S
by PukaCharts
Macro Monday 29 - U.S. Existing Home Sales & New Home Sales U.S. Existing Home Sales & New Home Sales U.S. Existing Home Sales U.S. Existing Home Sales data helps us to gauge the strength of the U.S. housing market and is a key indicator of overall economic health in the U.S. In simple terms U.S. Existing Home Sales is a seasonally adjusted record of previously owned homes that have been sold in the United States (per unit). The monthly data report is released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and It is a lagging indicator since people often make housing choices in response to a changes in interest rates (which would lead ahead of this dataset). Decembers report will be released this Friday 19th Jan. I will update the chart then so we can see how the trend is developing. The Chart You can clearly see that we have been in a downtrend since October 2020 where we topped out at 6.73m units. Thereafter from Jan 2022 – October 2023 we fell precipitously from 6.34m down to 3.79m. Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. went up 0.8% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 3.82m units in November 2023 (a turning point?), rising for the first time in five months, and rebounding from 3.79m in October which was the lowest level since August 2010. Whilst we are waiting for December 2023 figures, the Jan – Mar 2024 figures will also provide a good sentiment gauge for the direction in 2024. The chart has that look at present that it is basing here or potentially changing trend. Accessibility to existing homes is clearly low at present and one would think that low existing home sales clogs up the market and liquidity that might flow with it and the economy however, the low existing house sales also appears to create demand for New Homes which we will cover next. U.S. New Home Sales New Home Sales, also known as "new residential sales," is an economic indicator that measures sales of newly built homes (seasonally adjusted for annualized figures). The New Home Sales measure compiles data through interviews with home-builders and analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau's Survey of Construction. Specifically, it utilizes information on building permits issued for new construction projects. A home is considered part of the measure if a deposit was paid for its purchase or if a contract to purchase was signed within or after the year of its construction. The construction of new homes contributes significantly to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the U.S. It involves spending on materials, labor, and various services, which can stimulate economic activity. New home sales data is a critical metric for assessing economic health, understanding employment trends, and gaining insights into the dynamics of the housing market. The Chart You can clearly see that we never really recovered after the 2005 peak of 1.39m units, however bottomed in 2011 and started making a slow climb from 273k to a 1.04m peak in August 2020. This remains the recent peak and has not been recovered. An almost 50% reduction in New Home Sales followed reducing from 1.04m to 543k units over 23 months ending July 2022. We are currently 10% above this level at 590k (for Nov) having rolled over in July 2023 from 728k. The chart looks very concerning. Should we lose the diagonal and horizontal support with this month or next months data release, it could be very telling of a struggling new housing market. We have tested the horizontal support three times and you would hope that this would hold. Time will tell. Comparing the Charts Here is where it gets a little interesting. When you look at both charts and compare them you can see that between June 2022 and Sept 2023 the decreasing EXISTING home sales negatively correlated with the increase in NEW home sales. This would make surface level sense given the lack of existing homes being available creating a need for new housing. In recent months there has been a sharp divergence in the opposite direction, particularly in NEW home sales, which plunged from 717k in Sept 2023 to 590k in Nov 2023. EXISTING Home Sales increased marginally from 3.79m in Oct 2023 to 3.82m in Nov 2023. Is this a turning point? Obviously a combination of factors are at work here and its not just existing supply coming to the market that might be disrupting new home sales or vice versa but its interesting seeing this correlation and its something to keep an eye on for investors and policy makers. Sale of brand new homes creates a lot of economic activity and if sales are declining significantly whilst existing homes are starting to come back onto the market, one would presume it would stress the housing market and the economy. We may need reduced interest rates sooner rather than later to help fan the flames of the new housing market, or maybe its time the market takes a breather? What do you think? It certainly adds to the argument for lower rates sooner from the Federal Reserve to "soften the landing" or that divergence noted today. On Macro Monday 21 we covered the NAHB Housing Market Index and its close correlation to U.S Housing Starts. If you enjoyed this read today, you should take a look at that. They are two useful additions that give another view. I'll throw the link in the comments. Thanks for coming along again 🤓 if you enjoyed this or found it informative please let me know PUKA
FRED:EXHOSLUSM495S
by PukaCharts
EUR/USD - Will Lagarde shake up the euro?EUR/USD has edged lower on Wednesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0939, up 0.20%. The German GfK Consumer Sentiment report found that consumer confidence is expected to fall in July to -25.4, down from a downwardly revised -24.4 in June. The report noted that the German consumer is reluctant to spend due to economic uncertainty, and high inflation has eroded the purchasing power of households. The consumer confidence release comes on the heels of the German Ifo Business Climate index, which fell from 91.7 to 88.5 in June. This missed expectations and marked the index's lowest level this year. The weak confidence numbers highlight a persistent lack of confidence in the German economy. The ECB, which continues to signal that more rate hikes are coming, finds itself between a rock and a hard place. The Bank's number one priority is curbing inflation, which will require more rate hikes. However, tightening too quickly runs the risk of choking economic activity and tipping the German economy into a recession. How far will the ECB go in raising interest rates? Investors hope to get some clues from ECB President Lagarde later today when she participates in a panel on policy at the ECB bank forum in Sintra. Lagarde said on Tuesday that eurozone inflation remains too high and reiterated that ECB policy "needs to be decided meeting by meeting and has to remain data-dependent.” In the US, Tuesday's strong releases were further proof of a solid economy. Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales were higher and beat expectations, and Conference Board Consumer Confidence jumped in June from 102.5 to 109.7, its highest level since January 2022. These strong releases will provide support for the hawkish Fed, which is expected to raise rates in July and again in September or October. EUR/USD is putting pressure on support at 1.0916. Next, there is support at 1.0822 1.0988 and 1.1082 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
AUD/USD slips to 2-week low ahead of CPIThe Australian dollar has plunged on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6632, down 0.95% on the day. The Aussie is under strong downward pressure, having lost around 1.7% since Thursday. Australia releases inflation on a quarterly basis, which magnifies the impact of the release. Inflation has been falling and this trend is expected to continue in the Wednesday release of first-quarter CPI. The headline figure is expected to fall from 7.8% to 6.9% y/y and from 1.9% to 1.3% q/q. The core rate, which is considered a more reliable gauge, is likewise expected to fall - from 6.9% to 6.7% y/y and from 1.7% to 1.4% q/q. Investors will be mindful that headline inflation surprised on the upside in Q4, rising from 7.3% to 7.8%. The two monthly inflation reports since the Q4 release in January, however, indicated that inflation was back on its way down, with headline CPI falling from 7.4% to 6.8% and beating expectations. The RBA would love to pause rates at 3.60% for a second straight month, and another drop in inflation would strongly support a pause at the May 2nd meeting. As well, another deceleration would be a strong indication that inflation has peaked, although the battle is far from over as it will take a long time to achieve the 2% target. The likelihood of another pause in rates stands at 83%, according to the RBA Rate Tracker. In the US, today's data has been a mixed bag. UoM Consumer Sentiment for April was expected to remain unchanged at 104.0, but surprised on the downside, falling to 101.3. There was better news from New Home Sales, which soared 9.6% in March, rebounding from -3.9% in February and crushing the estimate of 1.1%. There is resistance at 0.6751 and 0.6808 AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6657. Next, there is support at 0.6572
by OANDA
XAUUSD Technical Analysis 23.03.2023 1h chart– Previous Daily candle closed Bullish at 1970.100 forming new Daily Support at 1940.600. – Buys on close above 1974.500 targeting 4h Resistance at 1981.500, Leaving Runners to the Daily Resistance formed at 1988.500. – Sells on close below 1961.000 targeting 1h previous Resistance formed at 1953.500, Leaving Runners to the 1h Support at 1946.200. – We have High Impact News data ahead on the New York session with Unemployment Claims and New Home Sales
OANDA:XAUUSD
by SalimFX20
Bitcoin Looks like its gonna pull back, BTC had a nice run!Bitcoin looking to pull back.... inverse Cup and Handle. Measured move down to $22K area... <---- CAUTION here! Would like to see it bounce off the $23k support or if it can't hold there $22K of course... CPI came in better for Risk On but Unemployment came in lower to conflict the CPI data... Looks like Bears are winning the battle so far! More Market Moving Data tomorrow, PCE and New Home Sales. Expect Volatility. Will be watching.... Good Luck Out There!
by BuddaCo_LifeStyle
Housing Market Crash Incoming!Demand always rules supply. Always. BLUF: Short-term projection = TBD Mid-term projection = bullish Long-term projection = bearish to extremely bearish Traders, I have been quick to point out the tremendous amount of disinflationary data in my videos which leads CPI reports in some cases by as much as 6 months (i.e. -rent). Now, let's take a closer look at the NAHB's Housing Market Index data which helps us to better denote market sentiment. First, observe that we have entered well below the weak demand zone. This is generally an area in which we can notice softening demand. Though the housing market may still remain hot in certain cities, others have noted softening demand. Once we dive below this "Weakening Demand Zone", it can often represent the beginning of a housing market recession, or, in the case of the 2008 era, a crash! We began this crash with certain city markets plummeting through this weakening demand zone, Detroit comes to mind along with a few others. These were our lead cities to watch at the time. At the point in which weakness in these markets began to be acknowledged and reported, it was already too late. Michael Bury (aka - The Big Short) knew this. The crash had begun. The markets did not react immediately, as we all know. In fact, the opposite: it would be a full 17 months before the stock markets reached their tops and then crashed hard. In a similar fashion, the Fed was notoriously tardy in recognizing lead disinflationary indicators and reducing rates accordingly. Not until a full year and two months AFTER the housing demand fell below its weakening zone would the Fed jump in and begin to diminish rates. By then it was too late. Fast forward to 2022. Despite the fact that our U.S. housing demand has fallen far below the weakening demand zone and below the approximate median for a housing crash start, the Fed continues to raise rates at a historic record pace. These rate hikes will come home to roost eventually, but not immediately. This is why I am under the persuasion that we WILL enter a more disastrous recession or worse in 2023. The lag effect of the Fed rate hikes will have a significant consequential impact. Just as in our past housing market crash story the impact will be significantly delayed and by the time they are noticeably felt, it will be far too late. Disinflationary data, low demand, low consumer sentiment, etc., will have hit us harder far in advance and the Fed will have realized they should have pivoted sooner. Though my longer-term outlook appears rather dismal at the onset, my mid-term outlook may be rather surprising to many. I do believe that just as occurred before the 2007-2008 market crash, the preceding price action will become bullish. It took the market a full 17 months to recognize the significance of our housing data, and the fed wasn't much better. Will it be any better this time around? It might be, but as we can learn from history, the market collective and the fed are often irrational and reactionary. The case for my blowoff top past the previous year's November highs still stands. The market will begin to recognize and digest more and more disinflationary data not least of which is housing market demand. The Fed will begin to be pressured more and more to pivot. And whether due to pressure or reason, I believe they will pause or pivot soon. Then the meltup (aka blowoff top) will begin. And sometime mid to late 2023, it all ends. Secular bull market (since 2009) exited. Secular bear market entered. Be ready my friends! And pray that I am wrong! Stew
ECONOMICS:USHMIShort
by stewdamus
2
NZ dollar slides below 62, retail sales nextThe New Zealand dollar continues to show volatility this week. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6182, down 0.48%, erasing all of Tuesday's gains. Later today, New Zealand releases retail sales for the second quarter. The markets are expecting a strong rebound of 1.7%, after the Q1 reading of -0.5%. The release is expected to reflect pent-up consumer demand after Covid restrictions were lifted in April. A stronger-than-expected release could give the New Zealand dollar a lift. The RBNZ will be carefully monitoring the retail sales release, as a strong reading would indicate that the economy remains strong and can continue to absorb higher interest rates. The RBNZ has been aggressive, raising rates by 50 basis points at four straight meetings. The central bank is expected to add another 50bp hike at the October meeting, which would bring the cash rate to 3.50%. Inflation has hit 7.3%, but the RBNZ is confident that it will peak soon and expects inflation to fall to 3.8% by the end of 2023. The central bank is cautiously positive about the economic outlook, predicting that the economic slowdown will not turn into a full-blown recession. Over in the US, durable goods orders for July were a mix. The headlines reading slipped to 0.0%, down sharply from 2.2% in June and missing the estimate of 0.6%. Core durable goods was unchanged at 0.3%. The weak data did not weigh on the US dollar, unlike the case after a weak US New Home Sales release on Tuesday, which sent the US dollar broadly lower. Investors are now shifting attention to Thursday's US Preliminary GDP for Q2. In July, the initial GDP estimate came in at -0.9%, settting off a storm of debate as to whether the US economy was in a recession after back-to-back quarters of negative growth. The debate had political overtones as well, with the White House, trying to avoid being tainted with the "R" word, went to great pains to point out that there are other definitions of a recession. The second GDP estimate is likely to come in at -0.8% or -0.9%; any other number would be a surprise and would likely result in some volatility for the US dollar. NZD/USD faces resistance at 0.6227 and 0.6366 There is support at 0.6126 and 0.6075
by OANDA
GBP/USD jumps on weak US housing dataThe British pound has jumped 0.82% today, as the currency has rebounded somewhat from its worst week of the year. GBP/USD plunged 2.53% last week, as the US dollar has found its mojo after weeks of beating a retreat. GBP/USD has climbed today after US New Home Sales dropped to 511 thousand in July, down from 585 thousand in August and well below expectations. UK manufacturing slides The UK Manufacturing PMI crashed into contraction territory in August. The index fell to 46.0, down from 52.1 in July and shy of the estimate of 51.1. The dismal reading is part of a pan-European downward trend in manufacturing, which has been made worse by the prolonged war in Ukraine. Output has been hampered by higher costs, a drop in demand and supply chain problems. CBI Manufacturing Output fell by 7% in the three months to August, according to the CBI, down from +6% in the three months to July. This was the first decline in output since February 2021. Manufacturers are also affected by rising energy bills and higher interest rates, and the situation is only expected to get worse. The energy cap will rise in October and the BoE will have to continue raising rates in order to defeat inflation. There was better news from Services PMI, which was almost unchanged at 52.5, pointing to weak expansion (52.6 prior). Still, it's hard to see how the UK can avoid a recession with weak growth and spiralling inflation. Business optimism is dropping, and that will likely lead to a cutback in spending, hiring and investment, which won't help the economy one bit. There is plenty of anticipation ahead of Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, but investors shouldn't overlook some key events prior to Powell's speech. Durable goods orders will be published on Wednesday, with the headline reading expected to slow to 0.6% in July, down sharply from 2.0% in June. Thursday brings US GDP for Q2, which is expected to come in at -0.8% QoQ, after a 0.9% reading in the first quarter. With the Fed stating that US data will be critical in determining its rate policy, the dollar could show some movement after these releases, just as it fell sharply today after the soft New Home Sales reading. GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.1924 and 1.2005 There is support at 1.1699 and 1.1568
by OANDA
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