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Daily Market Analysis - Thursday June 15, 2023Market Analysis: Global shares decline, dollar recovers as Fed pauses rate hikes; ECB and BOJ meetings awaited. Key events on the economic calendar include: New Zealand GDP (QoQ) for the first quarter. Eurozone Deposit Facility Rate announcement for June. Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision for June. US Core Retail Sales (MoM) data for May. US Initial Jobless Claims report. US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for June. US Retail Sales (MoM) data for May. Eurozone ECB Press Conference. On Wednesday, global stock markets saw a decline, while the US dollar managed to regain some of its losses. This came after the US Federal Reserve, as expected, announced a pause in its interest rate hikes. However, the central bank also hinted at the possibility of raising rates by an additional 0.5% before the end of the year. During its recent two-day meeting, the Federal Reserve presented new economic projections that indicated a potential 0.5% increase in borrowing costs by the end of 2023. This projection was based on a stronger-than-expected economy and a slower decline in inflation. US Fed funds rate The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), responsible for determining interest rates, unanimously stated in its policy statement that maintaining the current target interest rate range during this meeting would allow the committee to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. While it was widely anticipated that the US Federal Reserve would pause its rate hikes, the focus shifted to the communication surrounding potential future increases. In a surprising twist, the participants of the FOMC adopted a more hawkish stance. The median forecast for the end of 2023 regarding the Federal Funds rate was revised upward by 50 basis points, now ranging from 5.50% to 5.75%. SPX NASDAQ and DJI indices daily chart Following the announcement, the closing results of the stock market exhibited a mixed picture. The Dow Jones index concluded the day with a decline of over 230 points, while the S&P 500 index managed to secure a modest gain of 0.1%. The Nasdaq index, on the other hand, experienced a more significant increase of 0.4%. Notably, the Nasdaq Composite index was primarily driven by the positive performance of AI-related stocks, including Nvidia and AMD. In addition to the stock market movements, Wednesday started with Bitcoin surpassing the $26,000 milestone. However, it retraced shortly afterward and reached a 24-hour low of $25,791. Analysts are speculating that it may potentially drop further to $25,000. These sentiments are influenced by ongoing discussions on cryptocurrency regulation, which have been dominating the news recently. BTC/USD daily chart On the flip side, gold prices initially saw an uptick, reaching $1,959 per ounce during the session. However, as Asian traders kickstart their day, the price of gold has resumed its downward trajectory, edging closer to the $1,930 level. This downward movement can be attributed to the hawkish stance of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which has bolstered the United States Dollar (USD). The prevailing market sentiment currently favors the USD, consequently exerting downward pressure on the price of gold. XAU/USD daily chart The US dollar has demonstrated a decline against multiple currencies, resulting in a 0.32% drop in the DXY index. Among the currencies, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) experienced the most notable movement, surging by over one percent and reaching a three-week high at $0.6211. Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) and the British Pound (GBP) registered more modest gains, each recording an increase of 0.39%. NZD/USD daily chart Despite the release of favorable exports and machinery orders data, the Japanese yen encountered a 0.9% decline, emerging as the primary loser in the Asian markets. Investor focus was predominantly directed towards the upcoming Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting scheduled for Friday. It is widely expected that the central bank will maintain its accommodative monetary policy stance to bolster domestic economic growth. This anticipated approach is anticipated to have a favorable influence on Japanese stocks. USD/JPY daily chart Nevertheless, the Japanese yen is expected to encounter further selling pressure as interest rates rise in other regions, diminishing its appeal. Bank of Japan (BOJ) officials, including the newly appointed Governor Kazuo Ueda, have expressed their intention to maintain the bank's yield curve control policy to provide support to the domestic economy. Furthermore, the diminished anticipation of Japanese government intervention in stabilizing currency markets has contributed to the yen's weakening. While officials have issued verbal warnings, no concrete actions have been taken thus far. Currently, traders are closely watching the upcoming monetary policy announcements from the European Central Bank (ECB), scheduled for later in the day at 12:15 GMT. It is widely anticipated that the ECB will implement a 25 basis points increase in key rates. However, the Staff Economic Projections and the subsequent press conference by President Christine Lagarde will play a crucial role in shaping future policy direction. Market expectations indicate that interest rates will likely reach their peak in July, with speculation of an additional rate hike following June's increase, followed by a potential pause in September. If the ECB adopts a more hawkish stance by implementing a rate hike, it is expected to exert additional selling pressure on the price of gold.
by FOREXN1
1
AUDUSD THE BIG SHORT IS READYThe AUD/USD pair is consolidating near the critical resistance level of 0.6800, following a recent climb to a one-month high. Mixed economic data and anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve's statement have led to a need for consolidation or a possible correction. The Australian dollar received support from the People's Bank of China's decision to ease short-term policy rates. In the US, consumer inflation eased, solidifying expectations of a Fed pause. The pair's near-term direction hinges on the performance of the US dollar and overall risk sentiment. Technical indicators suggest the potential for a correction, although a daily close above 0.6800 would indicate further upside potential. Key support levels to monitor are at 0.6745, 0.6710, and 0.6680, while resistance levels can be found at 0.6780, 0.6820, and 0.6845. Traders should conduct thorough analysis before making any trading decisions. Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
XAUUSD PULLBACK BEFORE THE BIG SHORTThe price of gold has experienced a reversal, dropping below $1,950 after briefly surpassing $1,970 earlier in the day. This decline can be attributed to the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield, which is currently rising and approaching 3.8%. The increase in bond yield comes as a result of the recent drop in US CPI data, which has had a negative impact on the XAU/USD (gold/US dollar) pairing. The price of gold took a downward turn, slipping below the $1,950 mark after briefly surpassing $1,970 earlier in the day. This reversal was driven by the sharp rise in the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield, which is now approaching 3.8%. The surge in bond yield was triggered by the weaker-than-expected US CPI data, putting pressure on the XAU/USD (gold/US dollar) pair. Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
Sustainable Trend? / Eurusd Longs 🐂As price rejects our weekly Level 1.066 which began on May 31st, we map a possible scenario in which we may jump on the train with long positions. I am anticipating the new weekly candle to pullback first and create a bottom wick as most weekly candles contain. Price has arguably been in a range for the past 2 weeks. The Last 2 red folders news events last week assisted in the increase of price. I am anticipating the same sort of price action this week with CPI ( which is expected to decrease and in theory pump risk assets liek EUR) and Interest rates to be catlalysts for a further increase in price. I idea is that the general consensus for interest rates being held at the same rate supports our preceding trend to the upside. Because it will be priced in and the status quo maintains. The trend is developing to the upside and some news releases will act as a catalyst for a continuation or an excuse to pullback for lower price opportunities. If this bias blows over we may simply obersve a contiued rnage on Eurusd between Support level 1.06902 Daily Support level and 1.0776 (averaged) Daily resistance level. This range scenario or descent on Eurusd will occur if we observe risk off sentiment as crypto continues to plummet and we observe a correction on the U.S. stock indices. Institutions and other large players will crowd into buying the dollar and our ascent to 1.078 will look nothing more than a pump to lure in Late long liquidity as we fall back to 1.066 weekly level.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
2
The Eagle eyes a ( Risk on ) Inflation report 🦅The market is going up for asian session and I'm anticipating a correction of this price action during lodnon session. With USD CPI data during New york session it is possible price could just fly to the next daily resistance zone 1.0813. This will likely occur if the 4.1% forecasted inflation rate isn't met and inflation decreases at a slower rate than what is expected. I think this to be the more likely scenario because a .8% decrease in inflation seems like a bit much to me. I'm not anticipating that EURUSD will take it's lovely time increasing. It will be abrupt and cutthroat as the market blows through Investors's ***** ... Okay I will stop there because I don't want to make things to explicit. That's whats happening when price fluctuates 50 pips in the blink of an eye anyways. It's not what you want to hear but it's the truth. The unprepared will be taken to the slaughterhouse. I will implement my trading system as it allots. Risk management / Position sizing and capital preservation are especially significant during times like this. CPI data releases have acquired an important role in the last 2 years due consistently high inflation. If Eurusd continues it's downtrend on Higher timeframes and last week's bull candle was just a dead cat's bounce, then we may anticipate that price will spike at or above 1.0782 Daily resistance level or even go touch 1.0813 Daily resistance level before returning to the downside as the current daily candle closes back underneath 1.0782 Daily level and goes back down prior to FOMC interest rate news on Wednesday. Price has estalbished a new Daily support level at 1.0746
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
USDJPY LONG & SHORT SETUP - US NEWSDuring the European session, the US/JPY pair remains stagnant, trading within a limited range just below the significant resistance level of 140.00. The market is characterized by volatile fluctuations as investors adopt a cautious approach in anticipation of the upcoming release of US inflation data. In London, S&P500 futures have gained as investors hope the Fed will delay interest rate hikes and weaken the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index reached a two-week low at 103.21 due to expectations of a neutral interest rate policy and softening US inflation. Analysts predict May's CPI will remain unchanged, but core inflation will stay strong. The Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its interest rate policy, aiming for inflation above 2%. Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
AUDCAD SHORT TRADE BEFORE CAD NEWSOn AUDCAD, we have a bullish setup with the price, after yesterday's rally, stalling around the 0.891 area where we have a strong volume concentration. This is a potential reversal zone where the price could reverse course and reabsorb the liquidity left in the market. In fact, we can observe a significant cluster of trades at the 88.90 level. That level will be the target objective in case of a short trade. Please share your expectations. Happy trading to everyone. Nicola CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
🔥 Bitcoin's Last Hope For The BullsOver the last two days, Bitcoin has been dumping on Bearish SEC news from the USA. In the short-term, the bears are 100% in control and are actively pushing the price down. However, the bulls might have a last trick up their sleeve. We're rapidly approaching a massive zone of support that has been established around a year ago. If there's any big buyers left, they are waiting within this zone. A bullish reversal from this zone could signal an end to the ~2 month bearish trend. This would be in line with my long-term bullish Elliot Waves analysis on Bitcoin below. However, if this zone fails to hold the price, I'd expect that there's more selling to come. Seeing that this is a news-related selling event, it's hard to determine whether we're going to reverse or not. Technical analysis has a lot less impact once trading is based on pure emotion. Nevertheless, keep a close eye on this zone since it will likely cause some heavy volatility, either to the upside or downside.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by FieryTrading
10
USD Buyers Surprised by News Release 🎋 Hold or fold? Manufacturing Data sent Eurusd price soaring 42 Pips in less than 11 minutes as the expected figure missed. Is the current Price sustainable for Eurusd? The Weekly candle dipped down to down Daily Support Level 1.06684 and coinciding with manufacturing data we have rejected our Daily support level. In order for the current Daily candle to close bullish price needs to close above 1.07107. Bullish Argument - If the Daily candle closes where it currently sits, it looks like a Bullish hammer candle. - A Bullish Hammer candle rejecting Daily Support Level 1.06884 - Price has retraced Asian session and London sessions's bearish descent - I am anticipating a steady bullish recovery in EURUSD price since the meeting minutes on May 24 ( For more, please check the post " Ultimate Catalyst : Interest Rates News " ) - The Weekly candle last week closed as a Doji candle, an Indecision candle as bears ran into a wall at our weekly support zone 1.06643 Given all of this, It is very common to see News releases get corrected. I believe this will occur over the next few sessions as we could observe during the May 10th CPI announcement. On this announcement Price initially spiked up with news. This occured only to see Eurusd price corrected as the market digested the news. It took 18 Hours before Eurusd corrected the May CPI news. Price on Eurusd was decreasing to close out last week. This week price had only been decreasing with exception for the New York session manufacturing data news release. I am anticipating Eurusd to range and gather more orders around 1.0688 Daily support before seeing anymore upside.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
XAUUSD Outlook 5/6/23. 📉??Good evening gold gang!! hope you had a good weekend. Ok so we have closed in a position that last time, lead us to come down a few hundred pips. The 4hr candle as already made a top wick and is in a prime position to come down .. but we are under no illusion that gold does what it wants. So lets see what the volume is like in the sessions. Nothing bearish showing on DXY currently, so thats another reason for gold to come down further into the key level zone. Buy and sell zones are there with a little instruction of how i would normally take my entries during periods of high volume... have a read! As usual, ill be updating during the day, so make sure you are following on to receive notifications. Please like and boost the post too!! Catch you tomorrow morning for the london session tommyXAU
OANDA:XAUUSD
by tommyXAU
11
Forex Gods 🧞 Dare to Continue Eurusd? Well.. entering the final london session of the week here. I'd be a fool to change up on my analysis. What I have projected thus far this week has occurred exactly as I had anticipated. Would I be foolish to give up on this and outsmart my original idea so to speak. I don't want to play myself. When you stick around in the markets long enough, you begin to see things occur over and over again. Those who know, understand. It's not complicated though and it's actually pretty straightforward. When you mix an attachment to money in there, well no sh*t it is tied to our survival in the modern age. Well that's when things get complicated. Otherwise, I'm simply drawing lines and articulating what's unknown to me at this present time. I've done it long enough now to the point in which I am quite confident either way. Most of the time price bounces at my levels and so for the rest of time I will have the ability to create attractive Risk/Reward ideas. What a privilege. The difficult part is sticking around long enough to gain another perspective. I've seen many come and go and I feel lonely at times. I suppose that so long as I can draw my accurate level's/zones on the charts, the gods will have a place for me. Just as the gods do for all of us.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx