NEWS
AUDUSD THE BIG SHORT IS READYThe AUD/USD pair is consolidating near the critical resistance level of 0.6800, following a recent climb to a one-month high. Mixed economic data and anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve's statement have led to a need for consolidation or a possible correction. The Australian dollar received support from the People's Bank of China's decision to ease short-term policy rates. In the US, consumer inflation eased, solidifying expectations of a Fed pause. The pair's near-term direction hinges on the performance of the US dollar and overall risk sentiment. Technical indicators suggest the potential for a correction, although a daily close above 0.6800 would indicate further upside potential. Key support levels to monitor are at 0.6745, 0.6710, and 0.6680, while resistance levels can be found at 0.6780, 0.6820, and 0.6845. Traders should conduct thorough analysis before making any trading decisions.
Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy
XAUUSD PULLBACK BEFORE THE BIG SHORTThe price of gold has experienced a reversal, dropping below $1,950 after briefly surpassing $1,970 earlier in the day. This decline can be attributed to the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield, which is currently rising and approaching 3.8%. The increase in bond yield comes as a result of the recent drop in US CPI data, which has had a negative impact on the XAU/USD (gold/US dollar) pairing.
The price of gold took a downward turn, slipping below the $1,950 mark after briefly surpassing $1,970 earlier in the day. This reversal was driven by the sharp rise in the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield, which is now approaching 3.8%. The surge in bond yield was triggered by the weaker-than-expected US CPI data, putting pressure on the XAU/USD (gold/US dollar) pair.
Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy
Sustainable Trend? / Eurusd Longs 🐂As price rejects our weekly Level 1.066 which began on May 31st, we map a possible scenario in which we may jump on the train with long positions. I am anticipating the new weekly candle to pullback first and create a bottom wick as most weekly candles contain. Price has arguably been in a range for the past 2 weeks. The Last 2 red folders news events last week assisted in the increase of price. I am anticipating the same sort of price action this week with CPI ( which is expected to decrease and in theory pump risk assets liek EUR) and Interest rates to be catlalysts for a further increase in price. I idea is that the general consensus for interest rates being held at the same rate supports our preceding trend to the upside. Because it will be priced in and the status quo maintains. The trend is developing to the upside and some news releases will act as a catalyst for a continuation or an excuse to pullback for lower price opportunities.
If this bias blows over we may simply obersve a contiued rnage on Eurusd between Support level 1.06902 Daily Support level and 1.0776 (averaged) Daily resistance level.
This range scenario or descent on Eurusd will occur if we observe risk off sentiment as crypto continues to plummet and we observe a correction on the U.S. stock indices.
Institutions and other large players will crowd into buying the dollar and our ascent to 1.078 will look nothing more than a pump to lure in Late long liquidity as we fall back to 1.066 weekly level.
The Eagle eyes a ( Risk on ) Inflation report 🦅The market is going up for asian session and I'm anticipating a correction of this price action during lodnon session. With USD CPI data during New york session it is possible price could just fly to the next daily resistance zone 1.0813. This will likely occur if the 4.1% forecasted inflation rate isn't met and inflation decreases at a slower rate than what is expected. I think this to be the more likely scenario because a .8% decrease in inflation seems like a bit much to me. I'm not anticipating that EURUSD will take it's lovely time increasing.
It will be abrupt and cutthroat as the market blows through Investors's ***** ... Okay I will stop there because I don't want to make things to explicit. That's whats happening when price fluctuates 50 pips in the blink of an eye anyways. It's not what you want to hear but it's the truth. The unprepared will be taken to the slaughterhouse. I will implement my trading system as it allots. Risk management / Position sizing and capital preservation are especially significant during times like this. CPI data releases have acquired an important role in the last 2 years due consistently high inflation.
If Eurusd continues it's downtrend on Higher timeframes and last week's bull candle was just a dead cat's bounce, then we may anticipate that price will spike at or above 1.0782 Daily resistance level or even go touch 1.0813 Daily resistance level before returning to the downside as the current daily candle closes back underneath 1.0782 Daily level and goes back down prior to FOMC interest rate news on Wednesday.
Price has estalbished a new Daily support level at 1.0746
USDJPY LONG & SHORT SETUP - US NEWSDuring the European session, the US/JPY pair remains stagnant, trading within a limited range just below the significant resistance level of 140.00. The market is characterized by volatile fluctuations as investors adopt a cautious approach in anticipation of the upcoming release of US inflation data.
In London, S&P500 futures have gained as investors hope the Fed will delay interest rate hikes and weaken the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index reached a two-week low at 103.21 due to expectations of a neutral interest rate policy and softening US inflation. Analysts predict May's CPI will remain unchanged, but core inflation will stay strong. The Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its interest rate policy, aiming for inflation above 2%.
Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy
EURUSD before CPIThe first important news of the week coming up today.
We continue to look at the H1 trend reversal and buying opportunities.
On confirmation after the news and a good ratio, we will look for an entry with an initial target of 1.0940.
It is still possible to see stop hunting below the previous low of 1.0730.
An important week for EURUSDThe most important news coming up this week.
CPI data is due tomorrow.
We will se FED Interest rate decision on Wednesday.
On Thursday ECB is expected to rise interest rates again.
A proper money management and waiting for the right moment are extremely important when it comes to busy news week.
We’re currently looking at the options to reverse the H1 trend.
AUDCAD SHORT TRADE BEFORE CAD NEWSOn AUDCAD, we have a bullish setup with the price, after yesterday's rally, stalling around the 0.891 area where we have a strong volume concentration. This is a potential reversal zone where the price could reverse course and reabsorb the liquidity left in the market. In fact, we can observe a significant cluster of trades at the 88.90 level. That level will be the target objective in case of a short trade.
Please share your expectations.
Happy trading to everyone.
Nicola CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy
EURNZD BEARISH SIGNALS BEFORE EURO PILOn EURNZD this morning, the price made a third bounce around 1.7710 within an imbalance zone and near a downward trendline. The forecast now is to see the price around 1.7571. This is also considering the data released this morning on the Eurozone's GDP.
Share your expectation.
Happy trading to all from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Gold Pullback?Gold channeling through my trend lines, will look to trade when i see a retest of resistance, or breakdown to support. Staying away from trading in the middle as range trading can be risky. Also jobless claim news out at 1:30GMT, so caution around the dollar at this time. Will look to trade after news today.
Day NEWS price targets :/Once again nothing complex simple price movement. Still both side liquidity sweeps awaiting same as EU and GU be trade carefully.
Just chilling
🔥 Bitcoin's Last Hope For The BullsOver the last two days, Bitcoin has been dumping on Bearish SEC news from the USA. In the short-term, the bears are 100% in control and are actively pushing the price down.
However, the bulls might have a last trick up their sleeve.
We're rapidly approaching a massive zone of support that has been established around a year ago. If there's any big buyers left, they are waiting within this zone. A bullish reversal from this zone could signal an end to the ~2 month bearish trend. This would be in line with my long-term bullish Elliot Waves analysis on Bitcoin below.
However, if this zone fails to hold the price, I'd expect that there's more selling to come.
Seeing that this is a news-related selling event, it's hard to determine whether we're going to reverse or not. Technical analysis has a lot less impact once trading is based on pure emotion.
Nevertheless, keep a close eye on this zone since it will likely cause some heavy volatility, either to the upside or downside.
USD Buyers Surprised by News Release 🎋 Hold or fold? Manufacturing Data sent Eurusd price soaring 42 Pips in less than 11 minutes as the expected figure missed. Is the current Price sustainable for Eurusd?
The Weekly candle dipped down to down Daily Support Level 1.06684 and coinciding with manufacturing data we have rejected our Daily support level. In order for the current Daily candle to close bullish price needs to close above 1.07107.
Bullish Argument
- If the Daily candle closes where it currently sits, it looks like a Bullish hammer candle.
- A Bullish Hammer candle rejecting Daily Support Level 1.06884
- Price has retraced Asian session and London sessions's bearish descent
- I am anticipating a steady bullish recovery in EURUSD price since the meeting minutes on May 24 ( For more, please check the post " Ultimate Catalyst : Interest Rates News " )
- The Weekly candle last week closed as a Doji candle, an Indecision candle as bears ran into a wall at our weekly support zone 1.06643
Given all of this, It is very common to see News releases get corrected. I believe this will occur over the next few sessions as we could observe during the May 10th CPI announcement.
On this announcement Price initially spiked up with news. This occured only to see Eurusd price corrected as the market digested the news. It took 18 Hours before Eurusd corrected the May CPI news.
Price on Eurusd was decreasing to close out last week. This week price had only been decreasing with exception for the New York session manufacturing data news release.
I am anticipating Eurusd to range and gather more orders around 1.0688 Daily support before seeing anymore upside.
XAUUSD Outlook 5/6/23. 📉??Good evening gold gang!! hope you had a good weekend.
Ok so we have closed in a position that last time, lead us to come down a few hundred pips. The 4hr candle as already made a top wick and is in a prime position to come down .. but we are under no illusion that gold does what it wants. So lets see what the volume is like in the sessions.
Nothing bearish showing on DXY currently, so thats another reason for gold to come down further into the key level zone.
Buy and sell zones are there with a little instruction of how i would normally take my entries during periods of high volume... have a read!
As usual, ill be updating during the day, so make sure you are following on to receive notifications. Please like and boost the post too!!
Catch you tomorrow morning for the london session
tommyXAU
Hot News Trade!Based on Phase 2 data evaluation we could expect a positive outcome. Information sound good so far. THese kind of news often cause a wild rally on the day. Maybe two days. But generally they dont last long. Depends on the news of course.
But I would expect a pop on this on monday or tuesday. Maybe interesting for a short trade.
GBPUSD IS READY FOR NFPOn GBPUSD, we have a bullish/neutral setup in anticipation of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, which will be released in approximately one hour. The objective will be to look for a bearish setup if the price falls below the supply zone and then bounces back around 1.2520. Otherwise, a long position with a target of 1.26 could be considered, and this might be confirmed by the data as well.
Let me know what you think.
Happy trading to everyone.
Forex Gods 🧞 Dare to Continue Eurusd? Well.. entering the final london session of the week here. I'd be a fool to change up on my analysis. What I have projected thus far this week has occurred exactly as I had anticipated. Would I be foolish to give up on this and outsmart my original idea so to speak. I don't want to play myself. When you stick around in the markets long enough, you begin to see things occur over and over again. Those who know, understand. It's not complicated though and it's actually pretty straightforward. When you mix an attachment to money in there, well no sh*t it is tied to our survival in the modern age. Well that's when things get complicated. Otherwise, I'm simply drawing lines and articulating what's unknown to me at this present time. I've done it long enough now to the point in which I am quite confident either way. Most of the time price bounces at my levels and so for the rest of time I will have the ability to create attractive Risk/Reward ideas. What a privilege. The difficult part is sticking around long enough to gain another perspective. I've seen many come and go and I feel lonely at times. I suppose that so long as I can draw my accurate level's/zones on the charts, the gods will have a place for me. Just as the gods do for all of us.
EURUSD before NFPYesterday we saw an impulse rise on EURUSD.
On the daily chart, it looks like we already have a bottom and the price heading towards 1,0940 and 1,1100.
Important news coming today.
With the announcement of NFP, we expect further fluctuations and confirmation of the movement.
Does "News" Impact Price Behavior? 🐒We can Observe that After the 1st Quarter of the Year, January-March the price of Eurusd has increased. Now As we near the middle of the second quarter, I can't help but visualize a Breakout.
Price is currently sitting at 1.102. So far price has respected the Weekly Level at 1.106. The High for the first quarter was 1.103. We have now spent quite a bit of time at these extreme prices. I can often observe price using News//Data Releases on Lower time frames as a boost. A Boost of momentum in the preceding direction.
I can observe 3 Potential News//Data Releases causing and becoming a Catalyst to leave a Large Trading Range.
1. NFP
2. CPI
3. FOMC Interest Rates.
Will FOMC provide the Volume?
Do we have enough Liquidity?
Or may price dip from here back to our 1.086 Weekly S/R Zone before increasing any further?
My Bias is Bullish moving into FOMC. Safe Trading Everyone.
Not Financial Advice. Educational Purposes Only.
TOKEN TO WATCH | ICX | Sepolia Bridge Potential 24% TargetTOKEN TO WATCH | ICX | Sepolia Bridge Potential 24% Target
There is still some time left in May for this news to take hold although it is a little irrelevant as this is opening the doors to some bigger potential. With usual biggish news announcements and launches we can see dumps although longterm it is only a positive and can see the price drive up. The complimenting factor here is that we are also seeing some pretty nice technicals lining up although need to wait for a break of the key trendline
Bullish Week for The GOLD ?My opinion is that the gold won't fall again this week , because fondamentals and technicals shows that the gold will go on a bull run this week .
Gold 4hr TF setup for CPI When considering CPI, a lower figure is preferred when buying assets such as gold, EUR, EURUSD, Cable, and indices. The weaker the CPI, the better it is for risk assets, especially those associated with hedging against the dollar. For instance, if there is a year-on-year 4.7% inflation and a month-on-month 0.2%, it would be ideal to buy indices and sell dollars because the data has outperformed. If the CPI is lower than expected, buying gold and selling dollars is a good option.
Gold, GBP, EUR, and JPY are some of the assets that may be purchased in such a scenario. Indices such as S&P may move 30-40 points, while Wall Street may see a few hundred points move. Typically, any CPI figure before 4.8 or lower is considered a good data point.
It is crucial to analyze the CPI figure excluding food and energy. Food and energy prices have rapidly increased in the last two years, making them an important outlier. However, we are starting to see food and energy prices normalize, and they have been coming down steadily over the last three to four months.
If the CPI comes out at 5%, and food is at 5.5%, it is not a good number. The ideal situation would be to see continued decreases for six months. If there is a slowdown in one or two months, that is a problem. Currently, the Fed is still raising rates, which can aid in stabilizing prices. CPI inflation and rates are positively correlated.
