EURUSD move out the boxFX:EURUSD
English: Hey, trader! Here we have the EURUSD in the 4h time frame.I delated every trendline,fib,sup,res. I'm just looking for a move out the Box and then try find e retest move to the box and then take an entry. There is one important news in the afternoon tomorrow. So be careful! Theis news can change the direction of the chart very quickly!
Deutsch: Hey, Trader! Hier haben wir den EURUSD im 4-Stunden-Zeitrahmen. Ich habe jede Trendlinie, Fib, Sup, Res gelöscht. Ich suche nur nach einem Ausbruch aus der Box und versuche dann bei einem Retest zur Box einen Einstieg zu finden. Morgen Nachmittag gibt es eine wichtige Nachricht. Also sei vorsichtig! Diese Nachrichten können die Richtung des Diagramms sehr schnell ändern!
NEWS
USDCAD longFX:USDCAD
English: Hey, trader! Here we have the USDUSD in the 4h time frame. I'm looking for a long opportunity. I think the USDCAD will just consolidate a bit and then follow the trendline from the daily view. I'll look for an entry at the fib 68% level and the stopllos under hte last low.There is one important news in the afternoon tomorrow. So be careful! Theis news can change the direction of the chart very quickly!
Deutsch: Hey, Trader! Hier haben wir den USDUSD im 4-Stunden-Zeitrahmen. Ich suche einem long Trade. Ich denke, der USDCAD wird sich noch ein wenig konsolidieren und dann der Trendlinie aus der Tagesansicht folgen. Ich suche nach einem Einstieg auf dem Fib. Level 68 % und den Stopps unter dem letzten Tief wie im Chart eingezeichnet. Morgen Nachmittag gibt es eine wichtige Nachricht. Also sei vorsichtig! Diese Nachrichten können die Richtung des Charts sehr schnell ändern!
GBP shortFX:GBPUSD
English: Hey, trader! Here we have the GBPUSD in the 4h time frame. I'm looking for a short opportunity. I think GBPUSD will just consolidate a bit and then fall with a strong dollar. I'll look for a retest on a resistance zone around 1.20300.There is one important news in the afternoon tomorrow. So be careful! Theis news can change the direction of the chart very quickly!
Deutsch: Hey, Trader! Hier haben wir den GBPUSD im 4-Stunden-Zeitrahmen. Ich suche nach einem short Trade. Ich denke, GBPUSD wird eine weile konsolidieren und dann mit einem starken Dollar fallen. Ich werde nach einem Retest in der Widerstandszone um 1.20300 suchen. Morgen Nachmittag gibt es eine wichtige Nachricht. Also sei vorsichtig! Diese Nachrichten können die Richtung des Diagramms sehr schnell ändern!
DXY neutralTVC:DXY
English: Hey, trader! Here we have the DXY in the 4h time frame. The next days I think there will not be a nice trend trade. i think it will just consolidate until it breaks the trendline or it falls under the major level 104.000 . So be careful the next days finding the right entrys and the right exits. There is one important news in the afternoon tomorrow. So be careful! Theis news can change the direction of the chart very quickly!
Deutsch: Hey,Trader! Hier haben wir den DXY im 4-Stunden-Zeitrahmen. In den nächsten Tagen denke ich, dass es keinen schönen Trendhandel geben wird. Ich denke, es wird sich einfach konsolidieren, bis es die Trendlinie durchbricht oder unter das Mainlevel von 104.000 fällt. Seien Sie also in den nächsten Tagen vorsichtig, die richtigen Ein- und Ausstiege rechtzeitig zu finden. Morgen Nachmittag gibt es eine wichtige Nachricht. Also sei vorsichtig! Diese Nachrichten können die Richtung des Charts sehr schnell ändern!
Q&As: non-market dataThere's some curious personalities that trade (at least claim to trade) based on news, fundamental metrics, alt data n stuff. I don't mean invest, I mean trade. Well that looks like a skill to be proud off, superstimuli always feels cool aye? Good thing tho there no real reason in doing it all.
The most precise term to explain non-market data is, well, everything that ain't have a direct involvement with what happens inside the order matching servers of a given exchange.
So open interest is in fact a great example of non-market data.
The one & only real purpose for using all this data is to know (not to guess/predict/forecast, not to even anticipate), but to understand when the ACTION is going to happen. If you think deeper, ultimately it's all about asset selection to satisfy whatever purpose you got. if you ever got caught yourself feeling fooled when media release a bad info but prices go up, or media release a good info but prices go down, it's ok. It doesn't work that way, direction of prices can't be affected this way. Direction of prices is the result of how buyers meet sellers which is based on +inf number of factors, where a non-market data is simply just one of these +inf factors. It exclusively provokes action, meat, hype, momentum, volatility, whatever you call it. What's happening is that things start to happen very fast. Without a trigger event, the trading activity would've been the same, it just would've take longer to unwind. News don't change the structure, they make it all happen faster, that's it.
Examples of non-market data that can be used to expect action:
1) Trading schedule, eg the US, EU opening times;
2) Economic releases;
3) Commitment of traders reports;
4) Significant news;
5) Changes in yield curves;
6) "Fundamental" stock data;
7) Open interest;
8) etc etc etc
One really important thing to add is that, just like trading activity is understood in context (other resolutions), sizing also includes context (equity control, market impact), the same way every non-market data event lives in the context (previous releases, other releases, overall economy). You're interesting not in a new per se, but rather in what does it mean in the world. For example, inflation reports don't mean much when the rates are low, but when the rates are high, they trigger significant activity.
That's the area where statistical learning, automated learning, "machine" learning, 'Really' starts to make sense business-wise. The ultimate goal is to create a system that will process every kind of data you have (NLP and TDA should help) and output the tickers with raising/already risen levels of interest.
EURUSD shortFX:EURUSD
English: Hey, trader! Here we have the EURUSD in the 4h time frame. I'm looking for a short opportunity. Today we broke under the main level 1.06000 and also broke the last low. So it oculd be a start of a downtrend. there two trade opportnunitys in my view. First a move back to the Fib level 61% or 78% and then trade it with a strong Dollar to the downisde or you can look for a clear candle close under the main lvel an then look for a retest on the main level 10.600 all the way down. There's important news in the afternoon tomorrow. So be careful! These messages can change direction of the chart very quickly!
Deutsch: Hey, Traders! Hier haben wir den EURUSD im 4-Stunden-Zeitrahmen. Ich suche einm short Trade. Heute haben wir die Hauptmarke von 1,06000 unterschritten und auch das letzte Tief durchbrochen. Es könnte also ein Beginn eines Abwärtstrends sein. Es gibt aus meiner Sicht zwei Handelsmöglichkeiten. Zuerst eine Bewegung zurück zum Fib-Level 61% oder 78% und dann mit einem starken Dollar nach unten handeln oder Sie können nach einem klaren Kerzenschluss unter dem Hauptlevel suchen und dann nach einem erneuten Test auf dem Hauptlevel 10.600 suchen Abstieg. Morgen Nachmittag gibt es wichtige News. Seien Sie also vorsichtig! Diese Meldungen könnte die Richtung des Charts sehr schnell ändern!
USDCAD longTVC:DXY
English: Hey, traders! Here we have the USDCAD in the 4h time frame. I'm looking for what the dollar is doing tomorrow, espacially the news. There is no clear trend in the cad at the moment. So its not realy easy to trade this, for me. I would just look for sup and res zones. The news of the dollar can change the direction very quickly! There's important news tomorrow. So be careful! These messages can change direction very quickly!
Deutsch: Hey, Trader! Hier haben wir den USDCAD im 4h Zeitrahmen. Ich achte darauf was der Dollar morgen macht, vor allem wie die Nachrichten ausfallen. Es gibt derzeit keinen klaren Trend in dem CAD. Also ist es nicht wirklich einfach heruaszufinden was der CAD machen möchte, für mich. Ich achte morgen hauptsächlich auf Sup- und Res-Zonen. Die Nachricht vom Dollar kann die Richtung sehr schnell ändern! Morgen gibt es wichtige Nachrichten. Seien Sie also vorsichtig! Diese Nachrichten können sehr schnell die Richtung ändern!
GBPUSD shortFX:GBPUSD
English: Hey, trader! Here we have the GBP/USD in the 4h time frame. I'm looking for a short opportunity. Tomorrow I'll look for a move back up, again trading with the Fib because of this nice downtrend. With the strengh of the dollar we coud maybe even break the main level 1.20000 all the way down to the -27% zone. That would be realy nice around 140pips if it works. But! There's important news tomorrow. So be careful! These news can change direction very quickly! So we could also see a move to the main Level 1.20000 and with bad dollar news switch or sides and trade it with up.
Deutsch: Hey, Trader! Hier haben wir das GBP/USD im 4h Zeitrahmen. Ich suche nach einer kurzen Gelegenheit. Morgen werde ich nach einer Bewegung nach oben suchen und wieder mit der Fib traden, aufgrund dem schönen Abwärtstrends momentan. Mit der Stärke des Dollars könnten wir vielleicht sogar das Hauptniveau von 1.20000 bis hinunter in die -27% Zone durchbrechen. Das wäre ca. schöne 140pips, wenn es funktioniert. Morgen gibt es wichtige Neuigkeiten. Seien Sie also vorsichtig! Diese Nachrichten können sehr schnell die Richtung ändern! So konnten wir auch eine Bewegung auf das Main Level 1.20000 sehen und mit schlechten Dollar Nachrichten es von dem Main Level wieder nach oben traden.
DXY longTVC:DXY
English: Hey, trader! Here we have the DXY in the 4h time frame. I'm looking for a long opportunity. I would see two good entrys on this pair. First would be at the resistance zone around 104.350. Secound entry would be at aournd the Fib 61% or 78% level. I definitly prefer the 61%. This level looks way better for me and would give me more confident too. There's important newsin the afternoon tomorrow. So be careful! These messages can change direction of the chart very quickly!
Deutsch: Hey, Trader! Hier haben wir das DXY im 4h Zeitrahmen. Ich suche nach einem long trade. Ich würde zwei gute Entries bei diesem Paar sehen. Der erste Einstieg wäre in der Widerstandszone um 104.350. Der zweite Einstieg würde bei einem Fib-Niveau von 61% oder 78% liegen. Ich bevorzuge das Fib 61% Level. Dieses Niveau sieht für mich viel besser aus und würde mir auch mehr Selbstvertrauen geben. Morgen Nachmittag gibt es wichtige Neuigkeiten. Seien Sie also vorsichtig! Diese Meldungen können die Richtung des Charts sehr schnell ändern!
USDCAD longFX:USDCAD
English: Hey, trader! Here we have the USDCAD in the 4h time frame. I'm looking for a long opportunity. This trade realy depends on what the dollar is doing tomorrow if we see a strong dollar there shouldn't be something in the way to not get up there.We can also see 6 wicks on the fib61% which shows us that the currency don't want to fall under the level. There's important newsin the afternoon tomorrow. So be careful! These messages can change direction of the chart very quickly!
Deutsch: Hey, Trader! Hier haben wir den USDCAD im 4h Zeitrahmen. Ich suche nach einem long Trade. Dieser Trade hängt größten Teils davon ab, was der Dollar morgen macht. Wenn wir einen starken Dollar sehen, sollte es kein Problem geben dorthin zu gelangen. Wir können auch 6 Dochte auf der Fib61% sehen, was uns zeigt, dass die Währung nicht unter das Niveau fallen will. Morgen Nachmittag gibt es wichtige Neuigkeiten. Seien Sie also vorsichtig! Diese Nachrichten können sehr schnell die Richtung des Charts ändern!
GBPUSD shortFX:GBPUSD
English: Hey, trader! Here we have the GBP/USD in the 4h time frame. I'm looking for a short opportunity. Today we had a really strong dollar that already led to my first take profit. Now I am looking for another short trade from the Fib 61% or 78% level. If this currency is at one of the levels and you see reactions, you should look where the Dollar (DXY) is when it is getting bullish at the moment, you should definitely enter, otherwise you should wait for the Dollar to show a strong momentum and then look for a short opportunity. There's important news tomorrow. So be careful! These messages can change direction very quickly!
Deutsch: Hey, Trader! Hier haben wir das GBP/USD im 4h Zeitrahmen. Ich suche nach einem short Trade. Heute hatten wir einen starken Dollar, der bereits zu meinem ersten Take Profit führte. Jetzt suche ich nach einem weiteren Short-Trade von dem Fib 61% oder 78%. Wenn diese Währung auf einem der Levels ist und Sie eine Reaktionen sehen, sollten Sie schauen, wo der Dollar (DXY) ist, wenn er im Moment bullisch wird, sollten Sie auf jeden Fall einsteige, ansonsten warten Sie bis der Dollar ein starkes Momentum zeigt und dann sollten sie nach einem short-trade suchen. Morgen gibt es wichtige Nachrichten. Seien Sie also vorsichtig! Diese Nachrichten können sehr schnell die Richtung ändern!
DXY searching new highsTVC:DXY
English: Hey, trader! Here we have the DXY in the 4h time frame. I'm looking for a long opportunity. We have now made a lower high and also a significant bounce of the Fib. DXY also made it through back over the main level 104. 000. Today we had really crazy bullish voluminous moments. There's important news tomorrow. So be careful! These messages can change direction very quickly!
Deutsch:Hey, Händler! Hier haben wir das DXY im 4h Zeitrahmen. Ich bin auf der Suche nach einem long Trade. Wir haben jetzt ein tieferes Hoch gemacht und auch einen Sprung auf dem 78% Level des Fib. DXY schaffte es auch, wieder über die Hauptebene 104. 000 zu kommen. Morgen gibt es wichtige Nachrichten. Seien Sie also vorsichtig! Diese Nachrichten können sehr schnell die Richtung ändern!
You've missed these in 2022: DXY This is definitely not a complete list of events that happened for the year, just a snapshot of the highlights.
What a year it has been for the DXY, starting at around 96.00 and rose to a historic high of 114.75 before retracing back down again. (In comparison, the DXY only rose from 89.65, up to the 96 price level in 2021)
There were many contributing factors to this historic rise in the DXY, and to be fair, a lot of it did not have to do with the performance of the US economy.
On the 21st Feb 2022, Russian President Putin signs a decree declaring the Luhansk People's Republic and Donetsk People's Republic as independent from Ukraine, and, despite international condemnation and sanctions, begins a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
A flight toward reserve currency/commodity saw the commencement of the dollar bull, with the DXY quickly climbing to reach the 100 price level
17th March 2022 , the US Federal Reserve begins on its path to hike interest rates, to combat the inflation rate growth (7.9%)
Toward the end of April , jawboning from Chair Powell, about a 50bps rate hike saw the DXY rocket upward to reach the 104 price level.
In May, with inflation still climbing (8.3%) but GDP now entering into negative territory, the fears regarding a US-led global recession/stagflation begins to mount.
June 2022 , inflation is at 8.6% and the federal reserve has just increased rates by 75bps, taking interest rates to 1.75%
The DXY broke through the key price level of 105 a couple of days after the rate hike.
July 2022, inflation has now climbed to a historic high of 9.1%. The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war is felt, not just from a conflict perspective, but the increasing cost of energy, commodity, and food.
The Federal Reserve conducted another 75bps rate hike, with the interest rate climbing to 2.50%.
During this period, most major currencies are losing significant ground against the Greenback, especially the Euro and the Yen, causing central banks to embark on massive interventions.
Given that the DXY had been climbing from 96.00 to approach 110 in 8 months, the markets were keenly eyeing the Jackson Hole event in August , anticipating for Chair Powell to signal the possibility of a pivot in the monetary policy path.
But what we got instead was further jawboning about more rate hikes to come, and a reiteration of the FOMC's commitment to fight inflation growth.
This was probably the last straw, as the DXY continued to rocket upward, blasting past 110 to reach the historic high of 114.75 in September, following another rate hike of 75bps from the Feds. Interest rate now stands at 3.25%
Toward the end of September, improving consumer sentiment data showed that despite inflation growth and increasing interest rates, the economic performance of the US has been resilient.
This provided some market confidence that the Federal Reserve could begin to pivot sooner rather than later, which consequently saw the reversal of the DXY.
In October and November, inflation growth begins to indicate a slowdown. However, the Federal Reserve was still increasing rates at 75bps (interest rates were now at 4.00%).
But as talk about terminal rates increases and the anticipation for a slowdown in the scale of rate hikes, the DXY continues to trade lower.
In December , the inflation rate slows down to 7.1% the Federal Reserve's most recent rate hike was only 50bps, the DXY has retraced below 110 and now trades along the 104 price level.
Is this the beginning of the bearish DXY?
(Please put it in the comments if I've left out any key events) And stay tuned for the 2023 outlook!
USDCAD longFX:USDCAD
English: With USD/CAD, I would look for a bullish move upwards. BUT tomorrow is very important news for the CAD, so it all depends on how the news will be. . . If the CAD news are good, USDCAD will decrease, if the CAD messages are bad, USDCAD will increase.
Deutsch: Beim USD/CAD würde ich nach einer bullischen Bewegung nach oben suchen. ABER morgen sind sehr wichtige Nachrichten für den CAD, also hängt alles davon ab, wie die Nachrichten sein werden... Wenn die CAD-Nachrichten gut sind, sinkt USDCAD, wenn die CAD-Nachrichten schlecht sind, steigt USDCAD.
Using HIGH IMPACT NEWS as a confluence (update)I could be dead wrong with what I'm about to say but trying to take a short even at 1800 doesn't match up with the rate hike next week.
Tomorrow's JOBS # is the final piece of the puzzle; we'll know what's going on once the dust settles.
But if the criteria (see image) is met, I'm definitely interested in going long into next Wednesday (FOMC).
How to use HIGH IMPACT NEWS as a confluence!During deflation investors prioritize investment-grade bonds, defensive stocks (those of consumer goods companies), dividend-paying stocks, and cash.
Current asset flows, including the slide in oil indicates this regime allocation is in play (see attached image - below)
In terms of XAU:
- It has already been repriced higher after less-hawkish comments from Powell. The new rate of change (lower) can now be established for the overall down trend
- Going into DEFLATION, your gold is likely to be “deflate” in price because the logic is: hard times cause people to sell their assets (gold, silver etc.) to make ends meet
- There is a greater incentive for people who understand what's happening (like us!) to shot XAU at these higher prices or get in cash/bonds in order to buy the dip in equities down the road once Fed policy actually hints towards loosening.
The current narrative around interest rates is “higher for longer” = still no signal they will stop hiking which = it's still valid to look for shorts on XAU and stocks
GBP/AUD upside ready for next week...Recently we have finally seen some rest bite for the pound after looming USD data. Other instruments are markets have also somewhat corrected and as we can see from GBP/AUD we are picking up some momentum to the upside with targets of 1.8400 for next week.
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations.
Bitcoin Day Trade Setups, Scalping Entries🖥️ We have determined there is a 65% chance Bitcoin will RISE from our current entry point.
📉 LONG - BTC : $17,810 📉
💵 Length of trade: we are expecting BTC to hit a $400 scalp, with a high end of $550 - minimum expectation $250.
🕰️ Duration of trade: we are expecting this to occur within a couple hours of market open Thursday. But we can see a fast spike up to 18k at anytime prior.
📊🖥️ INDICATOR SHOWN ON CHART : Scot Signal Indicator
EURUSD before FED CPI news passed yesterday, but the interest rate decision is today.
This is the most important news and we will see reaction of all assets.
Expectations to rise have been met. We’re now monitoring for reversal grounds.
Another rise and leaving a rejection wick will be the best possible option.
And let’s not forget that the ECB’s interest rate decision is due tomorrow.
EURUSD Trade Breakdown Hello traders
-Today we had a trade on EUR/USD which is currently in profit due to the NEWS event.
- In the next steps, we will break down this trade and explain why it is risky to trade if you have strong news.
- Chart breakdown
1) On the left side you can see that the major low has not been broken, therefore the price has the potential to continue bullish.
2) Negative confirmations are bearish reactions and big wicks that you can see at the end of momentum.
3) The price is in an overall corrective PA, the structure is more bullish than bearish because we have not broken the major low.
4) But be careful with such trades because we had a lot of negative confirmations, you have to breakdown the whole chart and then make a decision for the trade.
WARNING!
-Strong news was present here. The news was on our side in this case. But be careful when trading the NEWS event, because the main reason why some prop trade firms do not allow you to trade the NEWS event is "slippage". If "slippage" happens there is a chance that the price will "forget" you SL and you will lose more than you should have.
-That was all about this part, if you want more education like this, don't forget to leave a like and write us a comment if something is not clear to you.