BATUSD shortTwo levels of supply ill find it hard to even move past the first dropping -29% percent in the last 5 days and is predicted to be a dollar by 2024 at current pace.
NEWS
Looking at price action on AUDUSD following CPI reportsInflation is one of the key factors in FED's decisions. It is expected to move the market every time it gets released, especially now that FED is watching.
Previous CPI was on 13/10 - 0.6% against 0.4% forecasted.
There wasn't any directional move on that day, just liquidity sweep on both sides.
Before that, another report came out on 13/09 - 0.6% against 0.3% forecasted.
Price broke out previous session's high before the event and dropped massively with its announcement. So far, this is a never-look-back level.
On 10/08, there was second of only two reports this year that turned out with negative surprise - 0.3% against 0.5% forecasted.
There isn't any immediate low or high breach worth mentioning, the price just rocketed through everything in close vicinity. However, as I marked with Yellow line, there was a significant swing high in 60 days period that was breached only for price to return below it and never look back after. I am adding daily chart below with all of the reports.
From the daily chart, we may conclude that CPI report has a tendency to create Monthly or even multi-month Lows and Highs. Just in the latest 60 day window, the highest price was September's CPI, the lowest price in that window is October's CPI. With the exception of June, the reports always created a significant High or Low or were or were only one day away from it.
Most CPI candles also exert visibly above-average movement and like to take on liquidity in close proximity to the price.
A negative surprise (inflation lower than expected) would likely lead above 0.655, perhaps up to 0.66, but is unlikely to change the trend. This would, therefore, be another highest high for months to come.
A positive surprise could quicklu steer the price below 0.625. I don't think it will go back up on positive surprise, it looks like that would high resistance run, because the price has provably tried to go there and failed on Wednesday's London session. It dropped instead and following New York session made another attempt, yet did not even beat London session there.
Legend:
Lines:
Violet - Monthly Highs and Lows
Dark blue - Weekly Highs and Lows
Cyan semi-transparent - Daily Highs and Lows
Cyan dashed semi-transparent - New York Midnight
Yellow semi-transparent thick - estimated liquidity area
Other:
Purple channel - Single Print, price went either down or up without any overlaps on higher timeframe charts
Yellow, blue, ted rectangles - key forex sessions, first three hours
If BTCUSD survives, where would I buy?Full disclosure, I have a small amount of BTCUSD on Coinbase and I am in the red. So I am not necessarily the best person to follow when it comes to Crypto.
That said, I do believe that humans and computers have aligned and the BTCUSD is trading very textbook in terms of technicals.
Early adopters took BTCUSD from $0 to nearly $70,000 which in anyone's book is an impulsive move, and in other people's book a classic pump and dump.
When we're talking penny stocks this chart I believe would go to $0. But we're talking about an asset that has Institutional Money involved. Even the wealth of small countries.
I have used Elliot Wave to denote where I believe the BTCUSD has been and will go in the future.
Green waves 1-5, a classic impulsive move.
Red waves ABC, classic corrective 3 waves move lower.
The original range that I am working with starts with what I consider the first major pullback. Green 1 to 2.
Recently the BTCUSD had been consolidating at the top of that range around the $20k mark. Recent events in crypto land have flushed out more holders as FTX loses liquidity and Binance steps aside from doing anything to help.
Looking back to late 2020 price broke out of the range and left an area of imbalance. Institutional algos do not like being left on the sidelines. So they wait patiently with their orders and use their algo to push price lower (in this case). News and fundamental events accelerate prices to wherever the money wants the price to go. Adding some fear along the way is good business.
If we are in a corrective move, rather than a waterfall to $0, Wave A could = Wave B~C and that takes us to the Mid Range / Lower Imbalance line. Which would be a very neat trick.
I have also used an Andrews Pitchfork to indicate where the price could land. As the original range expanded by nearly 4x, I have used the 4th deviation on the Pitchfork too. This intersects the Mid Range / Lower Imbalance line in May 2023, so in terms of timing, we may have 6 months of correction still to go through.
If BTCUSD is not going to $0 and Institutional Money does buy around the $11500~$12000 levels, the next wave up is a larger wave 3, which for those of you still following, is a very large impulsive move higher. Michael Saylor will be proven to be right.
I am not buying anything until we close the imbalance below. Unless we start making a bullish move higher, which would reverse the break of structure that we saw at $28800.
Good luck if you HODL, I have definitely been in this position before, where my gut told me it would be okay, only to see a share go to $0. The upside potential is always worth it in my opinion. Only risk what you can afford to lose.
solana in a bad situation :According to CoinMarketCap, SOL is the tenth largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, but it may lose its position at the top as a result of the growing drama surrounding the FTX exchange. FTT and SOL tokens have been sold off after information about the possible insolvency of Alameda Research, an affiliate of FTX, and its CEO Sam Bankman-Fried became public. While it is clear that FTT is a native FTX token and a major asset in Alameda accounts, little is known about Solana. At the same time, Alameda has $1.2 billion in SOL on its balance sheets, according to the data. Experts note in this regard that, in addition to the pressure on the SOL price caused by
XAUUSD potential movement and entry1) NEWS TO NOTE:
THE FEDERAL RESERVE AND THE BANK OF ENGLAND INCREASED INTEREST RATES BY 0.75% EACH WHICH STRENGTHENED USD AND GBP WHICH IS BAD NEWS FOR GOLD.
JEROME POWELL (CHAIRMAN OF FEDERAL RESERVE GAVE A VERY HAWKISH SPEECH A COUPLE DAYS AGO IN WHICH HE AFFIRMED THAT INTEREST RATES WILL BE RISING WHICH ALSO STRENGTHENED USD)
TODAY (FRIDAY 4TH) US NONFARM PAYROLLS CAME OUT WITH BETTER THEN EXPECTED DATA ABOUT US EMPLOYMENT
MORE EMPLOYMENT →MORE PEOPLE IN ECONOMY →MORE MONEY IN CIRCULATION →MORE INFLATION → MORE REASON FOR FED TO INCREASE INTEREST RATES → STRONGER USD → WEAKER XAUUSD
2) UPCOMING NEWS TO NOTE:
THURSDAY 10TH NOVEMBER CPI (upcoming September US inflation report) →THIS WILL EFFECT GOLD BECAUSE IT EFFECTS USD
Stubborn readings could translate into sustained elevation in Feds rate hike odds (sustained higher interest rates). While this would be good news for the US Dollar, it will likely be bad news for US stocks and gold prices.
3) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
I expect the price to have a short drawback towards the primary resistance line, however, the primary resistance line (top resistance line) is unlikely to be tested (touched by price) due to the bullish momentum of gold. Then I expect gold to continue on its uptrend. If the primary resistance line is tested, it would be an excellent entry with a risk to reward of 1:2. If it is not tested, i wouldn't advise a buy order, unless there is candle patterns and chart patterns which suggest a strong bullish momentum (for example a engulfing candle or a 3.82 candle or a close above candle. In the past couple of days there has been higher lows and higher highs however this is only intraday, and over a bigger time-frame gold is bearish.
Notes:
PlEASE GIVE ME FEEDBACK I WOULD APPRECIATE IT SO MUCH
TRADE WITH CAUTION
HAVE A GOOD DAY
THANKS
SNIPER
It's time for a pullback on EURUSD Yesterday, EURUSD reached 0,9750 where it found support that caused the beginning of a pullback.
Today we also have important news for the USD - NFP.
Right now it,s best if we wait for the end of the pullback before taking another trade.
We should look for market reaction around 0,9870!
Huge limit order on the level is detected!Waiting for the upcoming breakout. The next touch of the support level will probably provoke short impulse. Huge limit order on the level is detected. Open short position right in execution of huge limit order. Target - 0.01130
Bitcoin BTC Crypto Trying to Break Major Support line Bitcoin BTC Crypto is trying to Break thru the biggest resistance line yet $21,043. This resistance line was formed from a Head & Shoulders Pattern from the all time high which broke down and brought in this Bear Market. Additional Bullish Patterns have formed waiting to be fulfilled sending us to the following price points: Oct. 13, 2022 Bullish Falling Wedge Pattern +231% $61,764; Oct. 13, 2022 Bullish Falling Channel Pattern +121% $41,737; Oct. 25, 2022 Bullish Falling Wedge +33% $25,535; (Pending) Bullish Raising Triangle +7% $22,692
Pending Patterns price points; Oct. 13, 2022 Bullish Falling Wedge Pattern +231% $61,764; Oct. 13, 2022 Bullish Falling Channel Pattern +121% $41,737; Oct. 25, 2022 Bullish Falling Wedge +33% $25,535; (Pending) Possible forming a Bullish Raising Triangle +7%
The Market currently wants to go up....................... This current pattern forming will set the path
AMAZON!!!Hello ladies and gentlemen, according to my graphical analysis, I hope that you are not buyers at all from NASDAQ:AMZN because the latter is heading to 70 USD.
Should you require any recommendations, please feel free to contact me.
Trading Psychology (Part 3)As we head into the FOMC interest rate decision, here are some guiding thoughts when you are trading a major news event.
GBPNZD testing support + newsPrice is testing the support for the 4th time, such as MACD.
We can see the columns in MACDS indicator losing power, and the line crossing each other.
About candles we've a three inside up after testing the support, show us a bullish signal.
And to conclude the Reerve Bank of New Zeland says "economy will slow as rising rates curb consumption", the houses prices are still expensive; and this morning in NZ we had data about unemployment and employment, and:
Unemployment: 3,3%, higher thand expected (3,2%). They though the rate was lower than last Q, but is the same as the previous and higher than expected.
Employment: Higher than expected with a change of 1,3bp and the forecast was 0,5%
---------------------------------
Dont forget about yesterday:
BOE made a £838b stimulus and sold £750m of gilts
USOIL,WTIafter few hours big weekly news comes out
and I think oil supplements going to increase than expectation.
APTOS Price - Bad News Are In Effect Hi
I am neutral on APTUSDT. I just want to post this chart. You can see that it could go up/down from here. Their found raising project was unsuccessful and there are negative news. There is a talk about a possible rugpull. I don't know if I can link to google news from here, but do some research if you are interested. Always use risk management when trading.
EURUSD before FED Today, we have news that will determine the next move on the dollar.
There is a higher probability for a strong USD but the market could also surprise us and that's why it will be probably best to trade after the news.
The main sell scenario would be to wait for price to reach the parity level and leave a rejection wick there.
However, if it reaches the parity level with a bullish impulse and it doesn't show rejection, we won't be looking to sell!
We may see tricky moves in both directions and that's why we need patience!
Trading the FOMC MeetingTomorrow we have another FOMC meeting. In 2022 we've seen ~3% moves during and/or by end of next day (shown on chart).
In my opinion (not financial investment advice)... There will be an initial move and then a rip in the opposite direction for a big move, as has happened in the past.
As bearish the economy is and I am personally, we may hear pre-midterm political "pivot" talk to drive markets up for voters. That said, tomorrow we could see a fast move lower followed by a rip up to ~4100 to fill that gap you see in the chart.
Whatever happens it will be extremely volatile.
Keep your stops tight and/or entry's accurate.
What you'll see on the chart is a gap indicator along with a market breadth indicator. We're finishing up these 2 free indicators and will be posting them for people to use very soon.
Good luck trading!
XAUUSDAfter PMI data, everything is same with Aug 1 PMI data results.
I think Gold continuing drop to downside while dollar going to increase again.
EURUSD awaiting the news Like we already said, we have important news this week.
Before that we are probably not going to have any clear moves.
Yesterday we saw EURUSD moving to the downside and this will be the direction in which we will be trading.
We will wait for the news to pass and then for further confirmation before entry!
Total Crypto Market Cap Bullish? Total Crypto Market Cap is busting out right now and the move to the next Bull Run.......................
GBPAUD - SHORT SETUP Please this is not a financial advise rather its an aid to point you to the possible direction!
Fundamental Analysis in Forex Trading
Economic indicators and announcements are an essential part of fundamental analysis. Even if you’re not planning on finding trades using fundamentals, it’s a good idea to pay attention to how the overall economy is performing.
Here’s a cheat sheet covering six key indicators and announcements to watch out for.
1. Non-farm payrolls (NFP)
The non-farm payrolls report estimates the net number of jobs gained in the US in the previous month – excluding those in farms, private households and non-profit organisations.
2. Consumer price index (CPI)
The chief measure of inflation is the consumer price index, which measures the changing prices of a group of consumer goods and services.
3. Central bank meetings
As we’ve seen, most traders follow economic figures so they can anticipate what a central bank might do next. So, it only makes sense that we pay attention to what happens when they actually meet and make decisions.
4. Consumer and business sentiment reports
Multiple organisations are constantly surveying consumers and business leaders to create sentiment reports. While the number of reports they produce is staggering, they all play their part in shaping the markets’ expectation for the future.
5. Purchasing manager index (PMI)
Purchasing manager indices measure the prevailing direction of economic trends in a given industry, according to the view of its purchasing managers. They are used as an indicator of the overall health of a sector.
Pay close attention to these fundamentals.
They play a crutial role in trading.
very strong sginal for long postion EUR/USDwow depend on our deep analysis in news and indecators >> we found very good apportonatiy for long postion
as you see in the chart the price borke downtrend and moving up also today the price make backtest for the trend and keep moving up so in this condition the price confirm long moving
also you see in rsi indecator the price broke 50 line so this very good signal for long moving
and in adx indecator you see the price broke 20 ine and also ad+ and adx line moving up 20 line this very good signal for long moving
in the end we advice our investor to open long postion and take profit to ema 200 on daily time frame
this postion 1.5 reward ratio / see the postion on the chart
Important news for EURUSD Today we have ECB Interest Rates decision.
We should see them going up by 0.75%.
No matter what will be the bank's decision, we're going to see big moves on EURUSD.
We could see more bullish pressure on EURUSD, but we have to keep in mind that FED is also coming out with their decision soon.
That means, whatever upside move we see today, it could reverse pretty soon.
That's why, we think the best decision today would be to wait for the news and look for entries after that.
Also, price reaching higher levels will only give us a better sell opportunities.
