Get started

NEWS

Bank of England Raises Rates, ECB Abstains, Waiting for NFPThe news attention of the markets yesterday was riveted not to the US, but to Europe. The Bank of England and the ECB announced their decisions on the parameters of monetary policy. As expected, the Bank of England raised the rate by 0.25%, bringing it to 0.5%. Recall that at the previous meeting the rate was also increased, but by 0.15%. That is, we have two rate increases in a row - for the first time since 2004 (!). The underlying motivation for these actions is obvious – inflation. The Bank of England raised its own inflation forecast to 7.25% from 6%, which was predicted in December. The ECB decided not to touch the rate. However, it is also predictable. The current concept of the ECB: the economy is primary and the main thing is not to harm it. Accordingly, raising the rate is not their option. Considering such scenarios, let's once again pay attention to the sales of the EURGBP pair against the backdrop of an increase in the interest rate differential in favor of the pound. Mark Zuckerberg lost $29 billion yesterday after shares of Meta Platforms Inc posted a record one-day drop of 26%. Whereas Jeff Bezos added $20 billion to his net worth following Amazon's great quarterly results and the company's stock up 15% in post-closing trading. The main event of today is the publication of statistics on the US labor market. Considering how bad ADP's numbers have been, there's plenty of room for intrigue. And if so, then you can try news trading, since a surge in volatility seems inevitable, or at least very likely. The optimal choice of instrument for trading is a pair of USDCAD - simply because at the same time with the figures from the US, data on the Canadian labor market will be published, which is of increased importance for the Canadian dollar. Recall the sequence of actions. A minute before the release of the data, we place pending orders of the stop type for buying and selling in 20 points from the price that is in the pair at that time. And then we wait. If there is weak data from the US and strong data from Canada, a sell stop is picked up, and if it is weak from Canada and strong from the US, then buy stop. Well, then it remains to be patient at least for a couple of hours, after which we fix the profit.
Short
by Trade24Fx
Please Remove The News Feed above Bid / Ask watchlist section!Does anyone else not like the news feeds that are on almost every ticker above the Quote on the right side of watchlist display. Trading view needs to stop changing things that are working well already. Were traders, we like to keep it simple, the news feeds are distracting from the prices bid asks and day ranges and not important to us. Either put it down on that bottom or at least have the option to toggle the news display on and off. drive.google.com
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by TheIntelligentInvestor
EURUSD ; Less than 24 Hours to NFP / 1.14550 > Range > BreakoutEURUSD is looking quite bullish as EURO buyers showed up quite strong early in the week and have maintained a stronghold on the order flow. This shift in Sentiment from the prior week can feel quite drastic, on an intraday basis. But thats the nature of the Lower Time Frames. The lower time frame gives more detail and more noise so you cant get one without the other. However , create a bias for direction on the Higher time frame, and look for confirmation of your bias on the smaller timeframes. This takes time, experience, resilience, reviewing your losses, dealing with life outside trading etc. It is possible, not syaing it will happen, but we could come up to 1.153 tomorrow as NFP closes the week off, just based on momentum and fundamentals sentiment, etc. cheers everyone
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
8
Why the Stock Market Grew on the Failed Data from ADPThe most interesting and noteworthy in yesterday's news background is, perhaps, the data on US employment from ADP. Yes, the markets are much more interested in official figures in the form of NFP, and the correlation between NFP and ADP is about 25%, but still this is an indicator that directly characterizes the US labor market. So yesterday, according to ADP, the US economy lost 301K jobs in January. Once again, it did not show a smaller increase than the markets expected (and the markets were counting on 200K+ after the growth of 776K in December), namely that it lost over 300K jobs. This is a failure. The last time this happened, except for January 2021, just at the start of the first lockdowns. Tellingly, the basic reason for the failure is the same – the outbreak of a pandemic. This time, omicron, even without full-fledged lockdowns, dealt a rather tangible blow to the labor market. In general, supporters of the idea of ​​further rapid economic recovery have another headache. A natural question arises: if the data is so bad, then why did the US stock market grow (SP500 and Dow closed the day in positive territory). Indeed, in theory, what is bad for the country's economy is bad for its stock market. The answer to this question lies in the plane of monetary policy and the dual mandate of the Fed. Yes, the US Central Bank is on the warpath against inflation, but it must also take into account the state of the labor market when making decisions. And such data here give hope for a lower level of aggressiveness in the actions of the Fed in terms of tightening monetary policy. And this is definitely positive for the US stock market. OPEC+ yesterday agreed to increase oil production by 400,000 bpd. Recall that we keep medium-term sales of the asset, even despite its recent growth. The reason was recalled in the OPEC + report: the total surplus in 2022 in the oil market will reach 1.3 million barrels per day. And an excess of an asset is a reason for lowering its prices. Today is interesting primarily for the announcement of the results of the meeting of the Bank of England, as well as the ECB. And if everything is more or less clear with the second one - they will adhere to the line of ultra-soft monetary policy, then the Bank of England is expected to raise the rate again. In this light, the pound looks quite advantageous on the currency market, primarily against the euro. So the sales of the EURGBP pair look promising.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by Trade24Fx
Fed's Trying to Calm Markets, & Sector's Pleased with ReportingWe already wrote that there is a competition among analysts and experts who will predict more rate hikes from the Fed in 2022. Some consensus is in the region of 3-4 increases. Although there are extreme cases like 7 promotions. In general, the markets thoroughly wound themselves up. The Fed, seeing this, decided to reassure the public a little. This week, several central bank officials said at once that the Fed will not make any sudden moves, monetary tightening will be gradual and any new move will depend on economic data. As a result, we see a return of demand for risky assets, accompanied by a decrease in Treasuries yields and dollar weakness. In general, the game continues. The markets were looking for an excuse to breathe, the Fed gave them this reason. In our opinion, this is the only way to perceive what is happening. An additional reason for joy was the reporting of technology giants. Alphabet and AMD released quarterly results that were better than expected. Alphabet, after 32% revenue growth and 65% share price growth over the past year, even announced a 20-to-1 stock split that will go into effect in July. Last but not least, according to the Department of Labor, there were almost 11 million job openings in December, more than 4.6 million more than the overall unemployment rate. That is, demand in the US labor market significantly exceeds supply.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by Trade24Fx
Worst Month's Over, but There Are No More Reasons for OptimismJanuary ended for the US stock market on a positive note, which, however, does not negate the fact that the month was one of the worst in history. To recap: S&P 500 down 5% (worst since March 2020), Dow down over 3% (worst since October 2020), Nasdaq Composite down 9% in January (or 12% from highs) November), making January the worst month for the index since October 2008. Recall that the main reasons for the sales were the expectations of a tightening of the Fed's monetary policy (by the way, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. laid out their forecast for the number of Fed rate hikes in 2022 - 5 pieces), inflation, as well as problems with global logistics. That's not counting the omicron, the scaling back of fiscal stimulus, geopolitical risks, and so on. Eurozone reported on GDP growth in the fourth quarter. 0.3% growth is not an inspiring figure. Especially when you consider that the main economy of the Eurozone - Germany - is at risk of sliding into recession in the first quarter of 2022 (the fourth quarter of 2021, the German economy closed with a decrease of 0.7%). And in the US economy, everything is not cloudless, despite the excellent data on GDP for the fourth quarter. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) cut its 2022 GDP forecast to 3.2% from a consensus forecast of 3.8%. The reasons for such pessimism are the same: fiscal support is weakening, and Omicron is pressing. Therefore, it is more than premature to say that the worst is over and start buying everything in a row. And finally, a few words about oil (one of the key drivers of inflation, by the way), whose prices are in no particular hurry to decline. This week, OPEC+ (another meeting at the start of the month) may support sellers by increasing oil production by 400K b/d once again. But the main problem is that it seems that with each new increase, market doubts about the ability of OPEC + to actually increase production are growing. OPEC+ is currently producing 600K b/d less than it should be according to plans.
DJ:DJIShort
by Trade24Fx
EURO Rate Hike Expected on Feb-3-2022 /// Currently Jan-31-22We have seen a news release come out on forex factory around NY open about the expected Interest rate decision by the Bank of England. It turns out that it is indeed expected of the BOE to raise interest rates for the second time in a row. This has not occurred since 2004. This is positive news for the EURO as inflation is not necessarily a bad thing. The cost of money goes up in England, because apparently the economy can handle it, in the eyes of the BOE. This is why it is positive. But personally, I don't hear about wages going up a whole lot. Workers are the backbone of the Economy. Bit concerning. Unsure where price will go from here. Not going to be doing much EURUSD trading as we lead up to the IR announcment on thursday. I'm leaning Bullish I would like to see the Daily candle close solid bullish , as it looks to close in 1Hr, (our first daily close of the week) This would begin our fakeout structure here on EURUSD on the Daily Timeframe
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
11
Week in a Glance: Aggressive Fed, US GDP, Reporting seasonEven despite Friday, the past week can hardly be called successful for risky assets. Rather, she just managed at the last moment not to become a failure. The S&P 500, meanwhile, is gearing up for its worst January ever. Formally, the main reason for buyers' pain was and remains the US Central Bank, which was very aggressive last week, announcing the end of the quantitative easing program in early March, followed by a rate hike, which in turn will be followed by a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet. In general, inflation is the No. 1 goal and priority for the Central Bank, and it is ready to use all available tools. And the Fed can be understood. Inflation at the highest level in 40+ years. But at the same time, GDP is growing at a pace not seen since 1984, which gives the Central Bank room to maneuver. In this regard, the current week will be quite interesting, at the end of which data on the US labor market will traditionally be published. If the NFP does not fail, then the Fed will get a complete card blanche to tighten monetary policy. The reporting season, which could have saved the situation on the US stock market, is still causing rather mixed feelings. It seems that there is Microsoft and Apple with their excellent reporting. What are at least $ 123.9 billion in quarterly income of an apple company. On the other hand, the heroes of last year Tesla, Robinhood and others like them no longer inspire. And if Robinhood was consistently a failure in both reporting and forecasts, then Tesla posted more than decent financial results. But it confirmed the main fears of the markets associated with any car company - a shortage of chips in 2022 could hit Tesla hard. Well, the reporting of a number of companies, such as McDonald's, reminds everyone of another problem - the growth of producers' costs, which must be taken on and sacrifice profits or try to pass it on to consumers and risk losing market share. Such a lose-lose situation. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Merck, Exxon Mobil, as well as Ford and General Motors, to name a few, will give food for thought this week in the form of reporting.
TVC:DXY
by Trade24Fx
RBLX (Roblox) Controversy and potential consequencesExposition This is a complex issue and I hope you will visit the two videos I linked, listen to them and the genuine complaints they have, and what consequences they may entail for the value, and public sentiment, of stock prices in the near and long term future, particularly long term. This is a purely informative piece for those unfamiliar with the coming controversy which may or may not be impactful in the long term, not a technical one, as the technical ramifications of these issues have not been fully realized, and may not for some months to come. If you are interested in real technical analysis or earnings/financial analysis, you will not find it here. Call it 'fundamentals of potential public sentiment'. Buy the rumors, sell the headlines. So to speak. We're right before the headlines. Recently, although this has not been a recent issue and has been ongoing for some time, several videos have been released detailing the situation within the Roblox community. These videos have so far garnered millions of views, and will be linked accordingly. Roblox is a company that, if one is more familiar with the technical chart than the game itself, is a platform on which anyone can develop and publish their own games. As well, there is an in-game currency called Robux which can be accrued by both players and developers of said game via microtransactions and general playtime, so the most popular, regardless of quality, wins- i.e., as any capitalistic system works. Roblox themselves also offers these microtransactions as limited time items in the form of (essentially) NFTs. Because there is an ingame market and economy, items such as these, as this game is marketed towards children with little judgment (respectfully) in financial matters or spending, skyrocket in value. If one is familiar with the Team Fortress 2 economy (as some of us here are barely old enough to be part of or have transitioned into real finances since then, a decade ago), it is similar, but more exploitative. More on that later. However, the controversy is not only on this exploitation of children for profit (this happens quite often in mobile and other games, as I am sure many readers are familiar with if they have children of that age), but also on the lack of action and moderation of the company itself. Only recently has a great deal of attention been brought towards these issues. It is a kids game made for kids; I know, and well recall, prior to the IPO, reading many comments about how no one was sure this IPO would do very well, because they did not understand just HOW MASSIVE this company is, and how popular the game is. Nearly everyone I knew under the age of 13, family, friends of family, etc, played it, and many wanted me to play it with them, which I found boring and a tad droll, but of course, one bears that for the sake of the fun for those kids. Most seemed to expect a low IPO, or little confidence. Of course; they would not understand. Now, while any game such as this will somehow find a way to get through the cracks, sexual content, racist content, more extreme violence, etc, were, and still are, common. This is a children's game; whether or not one cares, it should not be allowed, especially uninhibited. Their lack of genuine responsiveness to media critics, lack of media coverage despite many issues, and a recent deluge of information on the exact absurdities arising from this game, especially in how children end up handling this money, has been exposed more and more clearly in the past few months. A video from a few weeks ago (ref. 2) has 3.3 million views at time of writing; 271k likes and 4.2k downvotes (with the extension installed to reveal them). The previous video which that was a follow-up of was released back in August. That has 1.3 million views, 115k upvotes, 1.9k downvotes. (So the scaled reception ratio, although irrelevant somewhat, is similar). The second video has three times as many views in a much shorter period than the first one. Perhaps the title is to blame; no one likes censorship. Here is a third video, by a more amateur individual, about the monetization in one game and its exploitative methodology, and the ends to which they went. This video is obviously less journalistic than the others, but player sentiment reflects game sentiment. What it indicates to me is that the awareness of this issue is rising greatly, and will be more and more exposed, eventually covered by MSM more. Whether one finds the MSM abhorrent or not, the MSM controls much of public sentiment. This cannot be denied. Robux have monetary value in a sense- someone can cash out, say, a developer- but the minimum is $1000 in that virtual currency. This is questionable be default to me because of how such things are usually not allowed on games (ingame currency must never have real value). But the main issue is that... Those ingame items I mentioned, that skyrocket in value, are not just $50 or $100. These are trading like NFTs, like art, where some can go upwards of thousands to tens of thousands. Roblox gets a cut of each and every trade. That means they are making a lot of money, right? That's a good thing for shareholders. When one is trading, fees are awful. Everyone hates fees like everyone hates taxes, whether they are useful or not in the perpetuity of either the (state) or the (development) of the operant. How does one avoid them? With black market, or side market, submarket, trading. This is prevalent throughout any economic system, virtual or not. Value is assigned not by utility, but by what someone is willing to pay for it. 'Fair value' is a metric that is somewhat arbitrary, as there is no fair value to anything; nothing is fair in life. These grey market systems within the Roblox community bypass these fees and restrictions and allow direct buying and selling of these items between users- and even Robux, the currency, can be traded for fiat, without any intervention by Roblox corp. itself. And, again, this is hundreds of thousands- if not millions- of dollars in a virtual economy. Call it crypto for kids. These things coming to light, which, while understood by those well invested in the platform itself, is still somewhat unknown to the wider public, especially the parents of these children whom are being exploited. The gaming elements; the platform; the monetization. I'm sure most don't care about that or its details. All that gets covered are their internal reports and earnings. What will make media coverage is the exploitation, the markets, the amount of digital currency going around in absurd ways- the social impact of the platform on children. The MSM loves and eats that up, because it makes good headlines and good clicks. It is a serious issue that must be addressed, but I sincerely believe that public sentiment- and AWARENESS- of this game will become largely negative and impact both its playerbase, revenue, and more. No other game is so massive that has this rampant issue. Perhaps it cannot be moderated with how big it is. Will this heavily affect the actual value or trend of the stock in a meaningful way in the coming months, as this becomes public knowledge? Will it even be continued to be covered and looked into? The bullish case is that everyone will ignore it, or it will not be deemed as serious as other issues, or will be disregarded as just something that cannot be helped, and the RBLX price will continue to be dominated by earnings, internal reports, and technicals. I suppose this is not necessarily a 'bullish' case- but more of a 'these fundamentals are not important in the long term, and may well be a temporary concern that will get covered up in some manner, or forgotten- but with such a massive userbase, I do not believe this can be true. Perhaps if the game was smaller. Not Roblox. The platform itself- a platform which encourages creation by its players and profits from it- is larger than many game development/publishing game companies who make AAA games. In brief; I believe (I cannot be certain; nothing is certain) that RBLX will see a startling drop in price as userbase concerns lead to further degradation of the player base, either through regulation, internal regulation, etc. If they fix the problems; less revenue. If players leave; less revenue. If they crack down on black market selling; less revenue, since it had to come from somewhere, and will go back to RBLX, since those players are still players in the game. This virtual economy is self-circular, as you will understand in the expository pieces above. Thank you Sofie Positions disclosure: I currently have no positions open but I am absolutely going short on the next trading day, so I will state I have short positions since I will soon.
NYSE:RBLXShort
by sofie4
1
Surprise from US GDP, Apple Reporting and Robinhood ProblemsThe main event of yesterday, which breathed a little optimism into the financial markets, was the publication of US GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2021. With an average growth forecast of 5.5%, in fact, 6.9% came out. The figure itself is great, and if you remember all the difficulties, from omicron to problems with logistics, then the joy of buyers in the US stock market is understandable and justified. After all, it turns out that in 2021, US GDP grew by 5.7%. And this is nothing less than the best result since 1984. However, it is still too early to rush headlong into purchases. Inflation hasn't gone away, as has the Fed's desire to fight it. And the reporting season is still quite ambiguous. On the one hand, Apple broke every conceivable record, demonstrating quarterly revenue of $123.9 billion (up 11% from the same quarter a year ago), which was almost $5 billion higher than analysts' forecasts. Earnings also came out better than expected. On the other hand, McDonald's earnings and revenue fell short of analysts' expectations. The reason is on the surface - high costs (hello inflation) ate profits. But the main reminder that the covid bacchanalia in the stock market is coming to an end was the reporting of Robinhood. The company expects first-quarter 2022 revenue to be less than $340 million, down 35% from 2021. At the same time, according to FactSet, markets expected revenue of $448.2 million in the first quarter. Well, monthly active users fell to 17.3 million last quarter from 18.9 million in the third quarter. Naturally, Robinhood's stock plummeted. At the moment they are quoted 85% (!) lower than six months ago. This is how bubbles burst.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Trade24Fx
1
Analysis GBPUSD (Overall down Side) Hello Traders, GU looks like a very much a down trend for the past week. Therefor, trading it to the down side would be your best bet in your favor. As you can see the the candles are retracing to mitigate anything to bring back in profit to continue to a sell/short. Possibly would hit to the 23.60% or to 50% once again retracement to reach to the target area at 27%. It also shows the retracement area around the Quarter point and making LH and LL's. It will possibly retrace up on the "mini resistance" (I have marked) before the way down. Beware of news: January 28, 2022 at 8:30am on EST TIME. All USD pairs Thank you for reading!
Short
by MonaySess
The RETURN of the BULL !!!We have been oversold on the RSI for a minute now and the few times it has touch oversold territory we have gone up! Even with Jerome Powell, trying to scare the public and the FUD that has been circling around we are still good! When in doubt zoom out! Things are starting to look good and the month of February should be a good one. The bottom was set on Monday and now it is time to take off! The economy is well and nothing has change on the macro level. We do have to be cautious with Sleepy Joe Executive order which is coming up in a couple of weeks. This can be bad for crypto if he is trying to control us but we cant be stop. See yall at the top!!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by theStockprenuer
Fed Decision and Sell-off, Tesla Reporting and Chip ShortagesThe main event of yesterday, and of the week as a whole, was the announcement of the results of the meeting of the Fed's Open Market Committee. Not to say that there were any special surprises, but the general hawkish tone of the Central Bank gave another reason for the sell-off in the US stock market. Of the main results, it is worth noting the fact that the rate was not changed as expected, but it was noted that it is not far off (March). At the same time, the asset purchase program will end at the beginning of March, and the balance sheet reduction will begin after the start of rate hikes. Actually there is something cleansing in these sales. On the one hand, they are massive (in the sense they sell shares of almost all companies), but you should not count on a massive recovery of all. In fact, there is a process of cleansing the grains from the tares and that which is dead will have to die. So we do not recommend buying everything in a row and indiscriminately. Well, you can’t help but pass by Tesla reporting. The electric car market is a topic too hyped to ignore. From the latest forecasts: BloombergNEF analysts predict that 10 million electric vehicles will be sold worldwide this year. But back to Tesla. Since the company publishes production and sales volumes in advance, no one expected any surprises from these key parameters and all attention was focused on when, for example, factories in Berlin and Austin will open, as well as what the company's vision is for the foreseeable future. So for the year, revenues grew by 65% ​​(better than expected), profit by 760% (also better than expected), and production in Austin and Berlin will be actively increased in 2022. Despite all this optimism, the hand does not rise to recommend buying Tesla shares - they are too overpriced, and for years to come. But as for the threats, they are quite real, but they are not included in the price at all. Take, for example, the main scourge of the automotive industry in 2021 - the shortage of chips. Yes, Tesla somehow managed to get away with it last year, unlike other manufacturers. But the situation continues to be extremely unfavorable - even Musk admits this, calling the shortage of chips the main limiting factor for the company. In general, according to the latest data from the US Department of Commerce, the average stock of chips fell 8 (!) times from 40 days to less than 5. That is, roughly speaking, any even the slightest supply failure, for example, due to bad weather or a pandemic outbreak, and many enterprises will be forced to stop production due to lack of components.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by Trade24Fx
FOMC Results, and Markets Getting Ready for Crypto WinterThe financial markets are exceptionally restless and volatile. Tellingly, there is no unity among financial market participants. As a result, the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market are frantically chatting. Perhaps the direction will return to the price dynamics tonight. Everyone is waiting with bated breath for the outcome of the two-day meeting of the Fed's Open Market Committee. It would seem that everything is expected – the monetary policy parameters will be left unchanged today. But the markets are not interested in this, but in the future actions of the US Central Bank. Recall that some analysts are waiting not for 2-3 rate hikes in 2022, but from 5 to 7. In addition, the Fed's comments on the reduction of the Central Bank's balance sheet will be extremely important: when will it start? What scale does it provide? In general, markets are waiting for a signal from the Fed about the level of aggressiveness of the Central Bank. If the FOMC is focused on inflation and is ready to act as quickly as possible, then we will see a new round of sales of risky assets. But if the US Central Bank shows uncertainty and tries to take a wait-and-see attitude, there may well be cries of “buy a drawdown” in the markets. Taking into account the scale of inflation, its uncontrollability and obvious tendencies for further growth, we are inclined to the first option and prefer selling risky assets to buying them. After Bitcoin peered into the abyss on Monday, the situation somewhat stabilized and improved. But the losses of the cryptocurrency market are still very massive. And if the growth of inflation stimulates the growth of inflation, then the fall of the crypt stimulates the fall of the crypt. Let's take mining for example. Paying the already increased electricity bills at the price of bitcoin under 70K and around 35K are two big differences. Fewer miners means less hashrate. Less hashrate - the network works worse. Well, do not forget that the vast majority of cryptocurrency buyers are fans of fast money, and when the crypt is not only growing, but falling, you can’t earn not only fast money on purchases, but also no money at all. This means that the number of buyers will physically decrease, and we may well see a repetition of 2018-2019, when the crypt suddenly became uninteresting to most participants in the financial markets, bitcoin was freely sold at 3-4K and no one was excited about the word at all.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by Trade24Fx
1
EURUSD before FED Today is the day when we expect the Interest Rate decision for the USD. It doesn't matter if there will be any changes, we're still expecting some moves. Because of the news and how risky and unpredictable they are, we suggest looking for an entry only when the news are over! We think that there is a higher probability that the downtrend will continue. If, during the news we see price going up to around 1,1400 in the first minutes and then rejecting those higher levels, then that would be a good sell signal. Quite often, during news you can see how price leaves long wicks in a certain direction to take out the retail traders and it then reverses. That's exactly what we're expecting to see today, and we have to be patient because we don't know in which direction that wick will occur. The only thing that's sure is that there will be a lot of volatility and that our analysis tomorrow will look at the potential opportunities after the news. Good luck!
Short
by ForexTrendline
9
Business Activity Worries Amid Energy CrisisYesterday were published data on business activity in Europe from Markit. On the one hand, everything seems to be not bad: business activity in the service sector and manufacturing is growing (indices above 50). On the other hand, in most cases the data came out worse than expected, and in the service sector of the Eurozone it is generally at the lowest level since April last year. Well, and another alarming signal (according to British data) more and more companies as a method of dealing with rising costs are choosing to raise prices for their products. That is, the inflationary spiral unwinds. It will be all the more interesting to follow the results of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday. Moreover, the competition among analysts who will give a larger forecast for the number of rate hikes in 2022 continues. According to Goldman Sachs, the Fed could raise rates 7 times (!) in 2022. In addition to this, according to Goldman experts, the Fed may announce the beginning of balance sheet reduction in May already in May. But we will talk about this in more detail on the eve of the announcement of the results, that is, tomorrow. And today I would like to note the high prices for energy assets. The threat of Russian military action against Ukraine greatly worries market participants, especially at the peak of gas consumption. Recall that it was the situation on the European gas market that provoked the energy crisis. In this light, the continued rise in oil prices looks quite natural. But our medium-term position is still unchanged - we believe that the worst-case scenario will not come true, which means that current oil prices are definitely overpriced. We also note that negotiations with Iran seem to be close to a happy ending. And this means the lifting of sanctions, which almost automatically means an increase in supply on the oil market.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by Trade24Fx
Week in a Glance: Stock Market Nightmares, InflationThe past week can be safely called waking nightmares for buyers of risky assets. On Friday alone, the cryptocurrency market lost over 10% (and, by the way, there is no queue of buyers, and after all, Bitcoin is already 50% cheaper than it was just 2-3 months ago), and the US stock market, represented by the Nasdaq index, showed the worst week since spring 2020 and overall it was the worst January for the index since 2008. Since the spring of 2020 is the beginning of a pandemic, the start of lockdowns and complete uncertainty, and 2008 is a global financial crisis that almost buried the entire global financial system under it, it becomes obvious how bad things are now. Especially when you consider that nothing actually happened. You can't call the reporting season a failure. Even Netflix, which was kicked by everyone at the end of the week (shares down more than 20% - the worst result since 2012) actually showed more than decent financial results, exceeding earnings forecasts and did not disappoint on revenues. However, nothing surprising happens to us. We have been writing systematically for a long time that huge price bubbles have swelled in the markets for risky assets. And bubbles are not about the rational, they are about the irrational. So in this light, selling out of the blue is a classic example of the irrational. At the same time, the fundamental basis for sales was created a long time ago and is just now being worked out. We are talking about a total overvaluation of assets against the backdrop of an unwinding inflationary spiral. The mixture is extremely explosive, since the tightening of monetary policies by the leading central banks creates the prerequisites for a mass exodus from risky assets. By the way, this week on Wednesday we are waiting for the announcement of the results of the meeting of the FRS Open Market Committee. It is possible that it was precisely for this event that the markets were desperately trying to discount last week. Should the US stock market be buried? Definitely not. Can it still go down? Definitely yes. Will he do it this week? Unknown. Very often, markets tend to overreact, resulting in a correction.
TVC:DXY
by Trade24Fx
1
$NXST: COVID / Tech Hangover?This one may be a bit risky but valuations are below the historical average and there's is some possibility that the divisions we've been seeing over COVID vaccines leads to a more local-focused population. People getting back to what's real and the issues that actually affect them in order to recalibrate to a sense of normalcy. If there is a tech hangover, I believe you'll find it priced in here first. XLC has been slippery though so we'll see how this plays out.
NASDAQ:NXSTLong
by Fox_Technicals