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New Year Kicks off with Records: Tesla, Apple, Ford & PandemicThe new year kicked off on a very optimistic note for risky assets. Tesla gave cause for optimism, having reported about 936K sold electric vehicles at the end of 2021. This is 87% more than in 2020. The growth rate is astounding, especially against the backdrop of the main scourge of automakers in 2021 - the lack of chips. And although Tesla shares were quite logically and naturally growing on this news, we cannot but note that all this does not negate the fact of their strongest overvaluation. And if the bubble in the US stock market starts to collapse, then one of the first victims will be Tesla with its sky-high prices. Although the markets ignored it, they wrote in a notebook that Tesla was recalling about 500K cars to fix something important there. And in general, if it seems to someone that Tesla is the king of growth in 2021, then here's a fact - Ford shares rose by 140% at the end of last year, which is more than the growth of Musk's shares. And although the bubble is not going to collapse yet, there is more and more evidence of its extreme phase. Let's take at least one more record of yesterday: Apple's capitalization reached $ 3 trillion. But not only Tesla and Apple are setting records these days. The new wave of the pandemic in volume has already exceeded two times the previous highs: 10 million new cases in seven days - this is almost double the previous weekly record of the pandemic. In Florida, for example, the number of new diseases has increased by almost 1000% in the last 2 weeks. And do not think that a milder course of the disease means that these numbers do not mean anything. At the very least, this is fraught with a temporary shortage of labor in the world. And as a maximum - new lockdowns. By the way, speaking of the labor force, the data on employment in the US from ADP will be published today, and on Friday we will see the official statistics on the US labor market.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Trade24Fx
Buying Put Options as Protection against Omicron Amid DivergenceOmicron continues to amaze with the speed and scale of its spread. The numbers are really terrifying. In Europe, the number of cases has increased by more than 50% in just a week (in America, the figure is about 30%). As a result, the number of new cases in France is already under 200K (almost three times higher than a couple of weeks ago). A similar figure (180K) in the UK. The United States has approached the 500K mark (a new absolute record) and it is likely that already at the start of 2022, after the successfully celebrated Christmas, the country will exceed the previously unthinkable number of one million new cases of the disease per day. In this light, as well as in anticipation of a tightening of the Fed's monetary policy, more and more traders are trying to at least partially insure themselves against a possible fall in the US stock market. That is, it has not yet come to open massive sales, but put options are flying like hot cakes. SentimenTrader estimates that in the week ended December 17, approximately 23% of new retail options were put contracts, up from 16% in early November. It should be noted that 2021 was a record year for the options market. On average, 39 million options contracts were traded daily this year, up 35% from 2020. At the same time, retail investors account for 25% of all trading activity. Which only confirms the idea expressed in yesterday's review. In general, summing up the results of 2021, let us once again note their ambiguity. That is, on the one hand, this is a super successful year for risky assets. The S&P 500 Index added almost 30%, which is a lot. But at the same time, 40% of the companies included in the index not only did not grow, but generally decreased in price by a two-digit amount, and a good half of these two hundred companies lost over 20%. We have already written about Katie Woods and her “successes” in 2021. That is, growth cannot be called uncontested. Such divergences are a sign of internal market weakness. So in 2022, despite the rally of Santa Claus, we prefer to enter not with long, but short positions in the US stock market.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Trade24Fx
3
Pandemic's Breaking Records, Lemmings, and Gas in EuropeGas prices in Europe continue to crash. If a week ago quotations exceeded $ 2,000 per thousand cubic meters, then after five consecutive days of decline, quotations dropped to the $ 1100 region. The reasons are an increase in the supply of liquefied gas to Europe from the United States, as well as the expectation of warmer weather. This, of course, is not the end of the energy crisis, but a reason to reduce the upward pressure on oil. In general, our recommendation to sell oil has not lost its relevance, but, on the contrary, has added. In general, this behavior of gas prices is largely synchronous with the general behavior of financial markets, which are very changeable in their moods and are ready to change their point of view rather quickly and strongly. So risky assets grew yesterday by inertia, but then they somehow deflated. And again, there was no reason to change the mood. Rather, on the contrary, according to Omicron, the news could be interpreted in favor of risky assets: the CDC reduced the isolation period for the omicron from 10 to 5 days, those who had recovered from the omicron receive immunity from the delta. However, all this does not negate the rapid growth of diseases: over 1.2 million people fall ill every day around the world, which is almost 2 times (!) Higher than just a couple of weeks ago. Well, there is no need to say that this is a new absolute record for the entire pandemic. The strain is becoming dominant throughout the world. In the US, already under 60% of new cases are omicron. It is hard to recommend buying risky assets after looking at the graph of the number of diseases around the world. Note that the pandemic has caused a natural boom in retail investors and traders. As a result, the markets were flooded with an army of incompetent participants, due to which the behavior of the prices of financial assets was greatly detached from the fundamentals, and this must be taken into account when making trading decisions. According to brokers TD Ameritrade and Schwab, in 2021 they opened six million new accounts for two. But this is just the tip of the iceberg - Robingood and others like him, cryptocurrency exchanges and brokers - tens of millions of retail investors have become a real new force. In the meantime, our favorite indicator of the behavior of extreme forms of risky assets - investments by Katie Woods - shows that the year actually turned out to be not so uniquely successful for the US stock market. All of Woods' key investments in 2021 are in the negative, and quite deep (over 10%): Block, Coinbase, Unity Software, Zoom Video.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Trade24Fx
2
Risky Assets Rise on Retail Sales, Lira StormsThe last week of the year started on the most positive note for risky assets. The US stock market has reached new all-time highs and the impression is that it does not want to wait for the start of next year. Once again, we note that this is not the specificity of a single US stock market, but part of the general rally in risky assets, because cryptocurrencies were also growing yesterday, adding about 21%, and oil with almost 4% growth. Markets have clearly gone into berserker mode, where all negative aspects are ignored. Both current news, such as the cancellation of thousands of flights in the United States alone due to the outbreak of the pandemic, and promising news, such as a change in the vector of US monetary policy, are ignored. The expectation of a milder course of the disease caused by the omicron, as well as the figures for retail sales in the United States during the holiday season, which, according to Mastercard, grew by 8.5% compared to last year, were already chosen as reasons for growth. And since 2/3 of the US GDP is generated by the consumer sector, the news is extremely good for the economy as a whole. Of course, in such conditions, going against the market is an extremely dangerous idea. But all this does not negate the fact that the dynamics are too one-sided for such a versatile fundamental background. It is still volatile in pairs with the Turkish lira. As soon as the Central Bank of Turkey stops intervening, the lira begins to pour in. According to some estimates, last week the central bank burned about $ 8 billion in reserves to support the national currency. In general, a sharp increase in confidence in the national currency, which Erdogan had hoped for, did not happen - people did not run to banks with lira in order to put them on deposits, or with dollars to exchange for lira. In this light, we remind you about the sale of the lyre after its most powerful and, as it turned out, exclusively steroid growth last week.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Trade24Fx
2
Week in a Glance: Santa Claus Rally, Energy Crisis and LiraThe past week has been extremely successful for risky assets. The US stock market, represented by the SP500 index, reached historic highs, bitcoin went above 50K, and oil added 5% +. The reasons for this, on the one hand, were the belief that the omicron leads to a much less serious form of the course of the disease. On the other hand, the overall positive attitude due to the holidays. The year 2021 as a whole can be called a year of unbridled fun among risky assets. So the end of the year in this light looks quite natural. Interesting things were happening in the energy assets market. A new wave of panic swept over Europe, driving gas prices above $ 2,000 per thousand cubic meters. But by the end of the week, the bubble deflated (within 3 days, gas prices in Europe fell by more than 40%). Oil in this light was in high demand and was growing almost all week. But in light of such a rapid fall in gas prices, there is a feeling that without further replenishment from the side of risky asset lovers it will not be easy for oil to grow. In general, the current prices are quite promising in terms of sales. The Turkish lira looks very interesting now. Interesting things happened to her last week. The markets sincerely believed that the measures proposed by the Turkish authorities to stabilize the situation will be successful, all economic problems are behind and in general a bright future is literally around the corner. As a result, the lira, which was trading at 18 per dollar on December 14, strengthened to 11 by the end of last week. In our opinion, this is a typical overreaction and a correction is inevitable. So selling a little lira at the start of the week is an extremely rewarding and promising occupation. A festive week is ahead of us. In theory, everyone has no time for financial markets. But there is an element of danger in this - a thin market and potential flash crashes, which are quite likely in the presence of a large number of price bubbles.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Trade24Fx
4
Santa Claus Rally Amid Lockdowns in China and Booze SalesThe US stock market this year clearly intends to demonstrate what the "Santa Claus Rally" calendar anomaly is. Rally Santa Rally is a price pattern in which stocks rally in the last seven trading sessions of the year plus the first two trading days of the New Year. Over the past 92 years, the S&P 500 has risen 77% of the time during the Santa Claus rally, according to Sundial Capital Research. Average growth over this nine-day trading period was 2.66%. So the last three days in a row of growth fit well with this pattern, but poorly correlate with common sense. Common sense refers to the fundamental background that currently surrounds the US stock market. In general, markets live in the omicron-took, omicron-dal paradigm. And now is just the phase when the omicron gives rise to growth. The reason for this hopes for its milder course, confirmation of which are in the form of preliminary studies (the latest study from South Africa showed that the probability of being hospitalized, picking up an omicron, is 80% less than in the case of the same Delta). And the answer to the question of what to do with the omicron is news, like the approval of a magic pill from Pfizer, by drinking which you can overcome the virus inside yourself. At the same time, the markets do not pay attention to 100K per day of sick in Britain or, even worse, news from China, which continues to remain faithful to its principle of zero tolerance to a pandemic and on this occasion sent 13 million residents of Xi'an to lockdown. Meanwhile, the worst is yet to come: a new peak of the pandemic is expected by the end of next month. While retail investors buy whatever is bad, American billionaires continue to sell stocks. By early December 2021, they had sold $ 42.9 billion in shares, more than double the $ 20.2 billion sold for all of 2020. Why? According to their financial advisors, it's simple: customers look at prices and believe the market is at the top.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
Lira Explodes, USD Dominates the Foreign Exchange MarketWe mainly viewed the change in the vector of monetary policy in the United States through the prism of the US stock market. But if someone loses, then someone should also win. And that someone is the US dollar. In general, 2021 turned out to be successful for the American currency: the dollar strengthened against all the currencies of the G-10 countries. At the same time, in our opinion, the growth potential has not yet been fully exhausted. In the context of interest rate differentials, its further growth against the New Zealand dollar or the same pound does not look as unambiguous as, for example, against the euro or the Japanese yen. The sale of the Turkish lira looks quite promising after its epic growth at the start of this week. Let us remind you that the economic insanity of Erdogan this year cost the lira very dearly: the currency has depreciated threefold. The sharp rise on Monday is associated with the announcement by the President of Turkey of unprecedented measures to support the national currency. For example, the country's government will reimburse the owners of bank deposits in lira if the Turkish currency falls in price by an amount that exceeds the interest on deposits. In addition, the tax rate on investments in bonds denominated in lira will be reduced from 10% to 0%. And, of course, inflation will decrease in a few months. All this, of course, is great, but how the bloodless Turkish economy will pay for these and other initiatives is not very clear. But it is clear that there is no trust in the lira and will not exist until Erdogan reads at least a couple of basic textbooks on economics. The energy crisis continues in the meantime. Gas prices in Europe have renewed new records, surpassing 2000 per thousand cubic meters. For substitute goods, including oil, this is good news, but last time the rise in gas prices in the 2000 region in Europe was of an exclusively temporary nature, and in just a few days prices then collapsed by more than 50%. So you shouldn't rush to buy oil - on the contrary, its growth is a reason for more expensive sales.
Long
by Trade24Fx
1
MRK has a lot of headline potential from hereHeadline Potential Merck has three drugs currently under priority FDA review, one of them a Covid-19 drug: Molnupiravir, an antiviral for Covid-19 which has received a positive opinion from the advisory board and which Merck's CEO says should work against any variant Vaxneuvance, a pneumococcal vaccine Lynparza, a breast cancer drug Merck also continues to make strong headway with Keytruda, an immunotherapy, which recently picked up another approval in Japan. All of this means that Merck has a lot of headline potential in coming weeks, especially at a time when a new Covid-19 variant is spreading across the world. There's quite a bit of options activity in Merck today as traders place bets ahead of the news. Technicals and Sentiment Merck is currently near support from a long-term trend line and from the 200-day EMA. It has 26% upside to the average analyst price target and a bullish put/call ratio of .43. It has an average analyst rating of 9.3/10, which is very high. It gets an above average ESG score of 2.25/3. Value S&P Global gives Merck's fundamentals an average score of 90/100. IIt's currently trading -1.4 standard deviations below where it usually trades in relation to its major moving averages. Forward dividend yield is about 3.7%, forward P/E just over 11, forward P/S about 3.4. The price to free cash flow ratio is fairly high, at over 20, but that has to be interpreted in light of the other multiples. estimate that Merck has about 18% upside to its average price multiple of the last 3 years. Its earnings outlook is highly positive; I score its growth forecast a 5/6.
NYSE:MRKLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
9
A Dirty Trick for Biden's Christmas Tree, Omicron DominatesThroughout 2021, Biden has been desperately pushing his economic agenda and its funding. We are talking about the infrastructure plan, which was cut in the process from 2 trillion to less than 1 trillion, as well as the so-called Build Back Better Act, within which it was assumed 1.75 trillion additional costs for various social and similar items. So yesterday Biden got a giant pig under his Christmas tree. Senator Joe Manchin (Democrat) effectively destroyed President Joe Biden's economic agenda by rejecting the Build Back Better Act, which means he has no hope of a Senate vote. In a sharply critical statement, the White House called Manchin's decision "a sudden and inexplicable reversal." It is clear that this is not the end, the act can be revised, something can be cut, something can be removed, but in any case it is a waste of time. To understand the extent of the damage, we will cite just one fact. As soon as Manchin's demarche became known, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. immediately cut their forecast for US economic growth for next year. Goldman Sachs now expects GDP to grow at an annualized rate of 2% in the first quarter, up from 3% earlier. The bank also cut its GDP forecasts for the second quarter to 3% (from 3.5% earlier) and for the third quarter to 2.75% (up from 3% earlier). In general, it is not surprising that the US stock market was under pressure yesterday, losing more than 1% on all underlying indices. With omicron raging (it has become the dominant strain in the US with a 73% share) and only a third dose of vaccine can stop it, conditions continue to be favorable for sales in the US stock market.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Trade24Fx
Week in a Glance: Fed Vector Change, Surprise of the Bank of EngThe past week can be safely called the week of the Central Banks. The meetings were held by the Fed, ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Bank of Turkey and a number of other central banks. Based on their results, a shift in the global vector of monetary policy is becoming more evident. But if earlier it was about the actions of relatively insignificant central banks such as Poland, now such titans as the Fed and the Bank of England have begun to tighten monetary policy. But first things first. We have already written more than once that inflation is a global phenomenon and has affected almost all countries of the world. But if earlier the majority of central banks tried to pretend that it was not there or that it was temporary, then last week showed that it is no longer possible to hide the obvious. As a result, the FOMC Fed on Wednesday radically accelerated the completion of the bond purchase program, which is now due to end in March. In addition, the Fed now expects 3 rate hikes next year. The Bank of England went even further and on Thursday raised the rate by 0.15%. For the stock markets, this is an extremely wake-up call. Especially when you consider that the Bank of England raised the rate against the background of an uncontrolled increase in the number of diseases due to the raging in the country of Omicron. The World Health Organization said on Saturday that the omicron variant of the coronavirus has been reported in 89 countries. The number of cases doubles in 1.5–3 days where the omicron appears. Well, the saddest thing is that the new strain is rapidly spreading in countries with a high level of population immunity. In general, the pre-holiday week starts in a very negative way for the financial markets. The moment is now very unfavorable for the growth of prices for risky assets, so we continue to recommend selling in the US stock market, the cryptocurrency market, as well as commodity markets.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Trade24Fx
JICPT|Don't rush to buy Zoom for new wave of covid! Hello everyone. I've been on a business trip for over a week and got no access to TV from the hotel. I think it may not be too late to talk about the new strain-Omicron. The news that the first case was found in EU as well as US triggered a wave of sell-off. Investors were worried about the new strain due to its transmissibility. Back then, scientists need time to have a better understanding of the features. We can clearly see stay-at-home sector got favored as it attracted fresh funds, zoom is one on the list. However, I don't think it's a good time to jump in at the moment. The reasons are as below: 1. Weekly structure : A potential AB=CD pattern is forming. It might go further down to $92 . 2. Daily structure : The downtrend channel got well respected. Look at those MAs, it's still in downtrend. If you're keen to the stock, better wait till the daily structure gets terminated. What do you think? Give me a like if you're with me. Thanks for your support.
NASDAQ:ZMShort
by JICPT
2
Catch 22 and Bank of England, the lira and the Bank of TurkeyYesterday we wrote about the illogical growth of the US stock market on Wednesday following the FOMC meeting. What was happening was very similar to the situation in boxing, when one of the boxers misses a strong blow, but by inertia, the fight continues actively for a couple of seconds. And then the legs give way and the brain gives the command to retreat. So yesterday's drop in the Nasdaq index by 2.5% + is just from this opera. Waving fists on Wednesday night and at the start of Thursday, the US stock market crashed to the canvas. Returning to consistency, once again we note that one of its last havens in the financial markets is the Turkish lira. Yesterday, the Bank of Turkey lowered its rate again, and the lira renewed its historic lows. We have already written more than once that there is one transaction in the foreign exchange market that there is no reason to doubt - this is the sale of the Turkish lira. Yesterday, the interest rate in Turkey was lowered by another 1%, but, however, they noted that for now they plan to stop there. In this light, perhaps, one can begin to fix profits in the sale of the lira. It was a great deal, but falling forever and without interruption - even the lira may not live up to such high expectations. The main surprise of yesterday was the decision of the Bank of England. The country's central bank found itself in a situation that can be tentatively called "catch 22". In the country, inflation and the rate need to be raised to bring it under control. But the country has a pandemic and the economy is on the verge of another failure. So it turns out: if you raise the rate, you will raise the cost of financial resources and harm the economy, if you do not raise the rate, inflation will continue to grow, which again will harm the economy. And if the ECB decided that God bless it with inflation, we will save the economy, then the Bank of England acted differently and raised the rate by 0.15%. Pound on this occasion even perked up a little. And the main thing is a precedent. The first of the leading central banks in the world, whose nerves broke down, and he raised the rate. This is a powerful signal to the markets that the next in line are the Bank of Canada and the Fed. In general, we continue to sell risky assets. The environment for them is becoming more and more toxic.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Trade24Fx
New Vector of FRS Monetary Policy, USA Avoids DefaultThe main event of yesterday, and what is there of the day - the whole week, if not the whole next year - is the announcement of the results of the FOMC meeting. Despite the fact that risky assets have reacted with growth, this is a good mine for a bad game. The Fed will not only accelerate the pace of tapering, but will also be extremely aggressive with regard to rates. The FOMC member vote distribution chart shows that the baseline scenario for 2022 is 3 Fed rate hikes. Back in September, the bulk of the votes were in favor of unchanging the rate next year. That is, we are talking about a full-fledged change in the vector of monetary policy. Markets are still at the stage of denying this fact, but the transition to anger, bargaining and depression is inevitable, as is the fall in prices for risky assets. The whole question is only in time. It is worth noting that the Fed has been so careful in its statements over the past year that, God forbid, the bubble does not burst ahead of time, that the markets have come to believe in their invulnerability. We just have to sit and wait for the moment of Minsky. In general, the only unknown in this equation is the time - when the markets realize that the era of ultra cheap money is coming to an end and decide to incorporate it into prices. Against this background, less noticed was the news that the United States had managed to avoid a default. Congress voted to raise the US government debt limit by 2.5 trillion. Naturally, this is not a solution to the problem, but just another postponement. Nevertheless, December 15 has passed, and the US continues to pay the bills, unlike the Chinese developers. Shimao Group Holdings Ltd, the 13th largest developer in China, spooked the markets by announcing that its services division is going to buy another division of the company for $ 259 million - in essence, it is about pumping money from a stronger division to a weaker one, which is obvious is on the verge of default. In total, yesterday's rise in risky assets against the backdrop of the Fed's decision is an excellent opportunity for more expensive sales. Yes, here and now the markets decided that the FOMC results corresponded to the basic expectations of the markets, but the fact of the change in the vector of monetary policy will still have to be taken into account in the price sooner or later.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Trade24Fx
BTC BITCOIN IS SURFACING FROM THE BOTTOM. AIM TO 100K???Oh, how is it, boys and girls? In my last post i tried to calm you down saying that crypto is in a quite strong accumulative zone so we should not panic. Now, with more conformation, i can say that it is definitely going up. Here, i wanna show you our current situation and our potential price action. ▪️While I was analyzing the chart, something interesting was noticed. Pay attention to September 20th - 28th. Here, i have observed this area with price action and a saw a huge Re-Accumulation. I have decided to put it on a chart. Guys, now, follow my idea. Look at September 21st. Here, we can see something that looks like a re-accumulative-spring. Here the show starts. Look at the next price action. Yep, we see an accumulation. But we will get back to this zone again ▪️Moving forward. So, we saw a great momentum and great price action.Then BTC started shooting to the freaking moon: everybody is happy. But, the gasoline is getting out and big money starts a new game called "Distribution". While everybody was observing RSI and Stochastic , institutions pressed the button. (Note: guys, i put everything on a chart. If you have problems with understanding, please, ask me in the comments. I will be happy to answer 😉 ) After that, supply zones, liquidity took part in the price action. And we had a re-distribution. It wouldn't be so strange unless one small thing...accumulation. "Well, it is clear accumulation..." that what i thought and that was a huge mistake. I totally forgot about the macro structure, about orderblock on 40k level (or you may also consider it as a LPSY), IPA and absence of a clear BOS. Thus, we had a fake accumulation which was a trap. And, as you already know, we fell down. What about now? Well, guys, we are moving in a this range and i put some wyckoff elements on a chart. Speaking the truth, we are already in an C-stage. I would say that we have a strong accumulation with taken liquidity up in UA zone. In December 13th we saw spring and consolidation near this zone. Today we have seen a clear movement to the OrderBlock and LPSY zone with high volumes in the candles, showing the interest from the buyers. And just a small cherry on this cake. Right when we needed a strong bullish and positive news, FRS made their statement about the stimulation of economics and inflation , and the price went high now. My opinion: We have constructed a great foundation for a huge uptrend with possible ATH . If you are in position, keep hodling it! If you are considering to buy BTC as an investing opportunity, this is also one of your last chances before the major move up. Thank you so much for your support and activity. 🥰 Write your opinion in the comments)
Long
by Quantedyth
6
EURUSD Broken SupportI am looking for a breakdown to next support. HOWEVER, there is a TON of news coming out today So technical analysis won't mean much today. Be careful if you are trading. US Retail Sales rose by 0.3% MoM in November Which is less than the .9 expected. It is expected to have the best holiday season for sales in more than two years this month. Here is some of the news. The website, ForexFactory, Has the entire news lineup but here is some to keep your mind on. 2:00pm USD FOMC Economic Projections USD FOMC Statement USD Federal Funds Rate <0.25% <0.25% 2:30pm USD FOMC Press Conference DO NOT MAKE A TRADE JUST BECAUSE A STRANGER ON THE INTERNET HAS A COMPELLING ANALYSIS. CHECK THE NEWS, ANALYZE FOR YOURSELF, Thanks you, Richard Blake
Short
by Wickalodeon-GhostProductions
Oil Goes into Surplus, and Markets Prepare for the Fed's VerdictThe markets were not up for fun yesterday. Traditionally, there were enough reasons for worrying. Omicron made it to China, manufacturing inflation in the United States showed the highest growth on record, and Germany, according to forecasts, will slide into recession by the end of the first quarter of 2022. And all this news came out against the background of waiting for the Fed's decision following the next meeting of the FOMC. Considering that consumer inflation in the United States is at its maximum since 1982, and Powell decided to abandon the doctrine of inflation “temporality”, there is reason to expect an official change in the vector of monetary policy. The whole question is in what form it will take place. The softest option provides for concern in words, but no action, that is, the rate is unchanged, as well as the pace of tapering. The omicron can act as the basis (cover) for this option. A more likely scenario, under which the markets have been discounted since the beginning of this week, is an acceleration of tapering, but without additional verbal interventions in the form of the Fed's readiness to raise rates earlier than planned. Well, the most aggressive of the real options is the acceleration of tapering and the announcement of the first rate hike, say, in April-May, amid deep concern over inflation. In fact, only the first option gives the US stock market a chance to return to growth. Both of the remaining options are reasons for further declines or even sales. How it will actually be, we will see already tonight, and tomorrow we will discuss. In the oil market, buyers have a hard time. The United States is preparing to sell 18 million barrels from its strategic reserves (the sale is scheduled for December 17), the EIA is lowering its forecasts for the growth rate of oil demand in both 2021 and 2022, and S&P Global Platts Analytics predicts that in In 2022, the supply in the oil market will exceed demand. With such a background, I don't want to buy oil because of the word “absolutely”.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Trade24Fx
BZRX, ready to pump upI wanted to share this sooner but I've been busy last night buy since the target is for mid - long term, its still buyable. our first target is 0.44 which is around 90% from where we are, if price manages to break the resistance zone, it has a lot higher to go. BZRX also have some great news coming up in Dec and as you can see, technical is looking good. I do not recommend future trading, btc might crash and hunt your stop loss. this is not a financial advice. Good luck
BLong
by Algo_Analyst
Major Near-term Nightmares for Financial MarketsTomorrow the Fed may crash the US stock market. Or he can continue to pull the cat by the tail. Moreover, here and now you can hide behind Omicron, who confidently walks the planet, having registered in 60 countries. We have already written that this strain is extremely contagious. The number of cases in Denmark, like in Britain, doubles every two days. And although the change in the vector of monetary policy and the omicron are the two most important threats to financial markets here and now, the list of potential nightmares is not limited to this. Recently, Bloomberg published their vision of the main threats of 2022 for financial markets. Naturally, the first places are occupied by the pandemic and inflation, as well as the possible tightening of monetary policies by the leading central banks. But do not forget about the fact, for example, that fiscal incentives have created trillions of holes in the budgets of countries, which can only be patched by raising taxes. We also remember about Chinese developers who, after the default of Evergrande, look extremely vulnerable. But the development sector is a quarter of China's economy, which is already starting to slow down development. Given China's zero tolerance for the pandemic, the omicron could potentially play a very cruel joke with the Celestial Empire and its economy. Do not write off Brexit, which, although it left the front pages of economic publications, continues to be a generator of problems for both Britain and the EU. And we have not yet written about the potential political instability in a number of countries. China versus Taiwan, Russia versus Ukraine, elections in Turkey in 2023, elections in France and Brazil. Much can change in the geopolitical situation. And most importantly, there is no reason to expect positive things. In general, there are enough clouds on the horizon, and even now the sky is far from cloudless.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Trade24Fx
Week in a Glance: Omicron, Evergande Default, US InflationThe last week can definitely be written as an asset for buyers of risky assets. US stock indices closed in positive territory in the immediate vicinity of all-time highs. At the same time, the reality was far from so unambiguous. And by and large, everything was determined by the angle of incidence of sight on events. Take a pandemic, for example. If desired (and it definitely was), the positive could be considered. At the start of the week, a study from South Africa was published (very preliminary, on a very small sample), according to which the disease caused by Omicron is milder than in the case of Delta. That is, we can witness the end of the pandemic, when everyone will quickly get sick without consequences and herd immunity will naturally form. Markets liked this idea so much that all other news related to the pandemic ceased to interest them. But there were also studies that showed that omicron breaks through the immune defense, which from it after 2 doses of Pfizer is 40 (!) Times lower than in the case of Delta. They also ignored the statistics from South Africa, which shows not only an explosive increase in the number of cases of the disease, but also in hospitalizations (which in itself hints that the consequences are still there and everything is not so smooth). The markets did not care for the fact that the number of diseases based on Omicron in Britain doubled every 2-3 days (!), as a result of which the country began to tighten social distancing measures. In general, if the markets decide to see the other side of the coin, things can change at any moment. But life is not limited to just one pandemic. There are two other top 3 risks besides a pandemic, according to New York Fed research. This refers to the development sector in China, as well as inflation and a change in the vector of monetary policy by central banks. So in this regard, everything is extremely bad. Evergrande was officially defaulted last week. And along with it, also the Kaisa Group did. The total volume of their issue of bonds exceeds $ 30 billion. Well, consumer inflation in the United States reached its maximum since 1982 (!). Taking into account that the FOMC will announce the results of its two-day meeting this week, everything looks quite alarming for buyers in the US stock market. In general, the week promises to be extremely busy: the results of their meetings will be announced by the Central Banks of the USA, Eurozone, England and Japan, data on retail sales in the USA, China and Great Britain, inflation statistics from the Eurozone, Great Britain and Canada and much more will be published. Let's see if the markets manage to grow further. And to all adherents of the idea that stock markets are only growing, let us remind you that out of more than 50 high-tech companies that went public in 2021, all (!) Are now in the minus relative to the peak values ​​of quotations. Moreover, this is not some 5-10% that can be attributed to local correction. These are full -30% + (Rivian), -60% + (Didi) and even -70% + (Robinhood).
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Trade24Fx
Evergande Default, World and Pandemic, Italy and AmazonIn yesterday, even with a magnifying glass of heightened optimism, it was difficult to find positive. The epic with Evergande seems to be going according to the worst scenario for China. China Evergrande Group was officially recognized as a defaulter for the first time. Fitch Ratings downgraded Evergrande to "limited default" due to the company's inability to make two coupon payments by the end of the grace period on Monday. A similar story goes for another Chinese developer, Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd., which failed to redeem its $ 400 million bonds maturing on Tuesday. If we sum up the bond issues by both companies, we will get an amount of over $ 30 billion. But this may be just the beginning of a long journey, the movement along which will not end with anything good for the Chinese economy. And the world as a whole can suffer badly due to financial contamination. But the negative of yesterday was not limited to this. Italy's antitrust authority said Thursday it had fined Amazon € 1.13 billion for alleged abuse of market dominance. This is one of the most severe fines imposed on the American tech giant in Europe. Well, pandemic news became the cherry on top of this cake. The UK has decided to remind markets that with a new strain breaking through standard vaccination defenses, the only way to deal with it is with lockdowns and restrictions. So yesterday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced tougher government measures to prevent the accelerating spread of Covid-19 in the UK. While we are talking about the recommendation to work from home. In general, according to the Global Health Security Index (GHS), no country in the world is ready for the next pandemic, and most are insufficiently prepared for even small outbreaks of disease. In general, with such a fundamental background, the markets meet the end of the week. Today's data on consumer inflation in the US may well tip the scales to the side of the pessimists, and we will see another change in sentiment in the financial markets.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Trade24Fx
2
Bank of Canada's Delaying the Inevitable; Britain's on the VergeMarkets on Wednesday continued to follow the news around the omicron. It was very interesting to observe how the seemingly obvious negative they managed to transform into a reason for optimism. As shown by the results of the study, the Pfizer vaccine is 40 times (!) Less effective against Omicron than against Delta. It would seem that this is a failure, complete and categorical. But as it turned out, if 3 doses of Pfizer vaccine are hanging in the body, then it is protected as well as from Delta. And everyone seized on this fact, presenting it as a panacea. Of course, no one asks how many are vaccinated with 3 doses relative to the total mass of people. And if they asked, it would become clear that for 90% + this news is practically a statement of the fact of their vulnerability to a pandemic. That is, we are somewhere in the first half of 2020, when lockdowns were the only means of struggle. By the way, about lockdowns. Since the omicron is marching around the world with might and main, this is not an idle question. In the UK, for example, in light of the exponential growth in the number of cases with the omicron strain (an increase of 10 times per week), the issue of lockdown is already being seriously condemned. And the authorities can be understood, because many picked up the omicron not on a trip, but without leaving Britain, that is, it is already spreading inside the country. In this light, we'd not suggest you to buy a pound at all. If you buy anything, the Canadian dollar is better, ideally against the euro, but it is also possible against the US dollar. Even despite yesterday's decision by the Bank of Canada to leave the parameters of monetary policy unchanged. On the one hand, the markets were somewhat disappointed, as they secretly hoped for an earlier rate hike than April 2022. On the other hand, this decision is quite logical in the light of the omicron. Note that the markets are expecting 5 rate hikes by the Bank of Canada in 2022, the first of which will be in March or April. That is, the Central Bank of Canada will be more aggressive with respect to the FRS, which again plays into the hands of the Canadian dollar.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Trade24Fx
Markets Seeing Drawdown, US Avoiding Default, and IPOs HintingYesterday became a continuation of Monday. Apparently, the first day of the week was not enough for the markets to satisfy their passion for buying at a lower price. As a result, Nasdaq showed one of the best days of 2021, and prices were again close enough to historical highs, which in itself hints at not being cheap. In general, the motivation for buying outside the context of all these “buy the dip” and “fear of missing out” looks rather unconvincing. Yes, the markets want to sincerely believe that Omicron is the last round of a pandemic and that we will continue to return to normal life. But this belief is still very weakly supported by facts. From the facts so far, there is a 400% + increase in the number of diseases per week in the province of South Africa where the strain originated. From the facts, there is also an increase in the number of hospitalized by 6 (!) times in the same province (to the question of a milder course of the disease - of course, in the case of a mild runny nose and coughing, hospitalization is urgently needed). And these facts are not in a positive mood. In fact, analysts at Goldman Sachs, after they lowered their forecasts for economic growth rates from 4.5% to 3%, and say that the consequences are obvious: the economic recovery will slow down (at best), supply disruptions will intensify, and the return the usual reality, including the normal functioning of the labor market, is at least postponed. In general, perhaps the only objective factor in favor of the growth in demand for risky assets yesterday was the agreement between the Republicans and Democrats on the solution of the problem of the US government debt ceiling and the potential default of the States. But again, the probability of default was initially close to zero, so this is not a risk that has been pressing heavily on the markets. But from what was pressing, absolutely everything continues to remain relevant and press further. The Fed will remind the markets of inflation and monetary tightening in a week. And Chinese developers today can raise a wave of panic, because judging by the incoming information, both Evergrande and Kaisa cannot make payments on their obligations and are on the verge of default (or even in a state of default). In general, you should not take the extremely successful start of the week for risky assets at face value. Well, there is no proper fundamental background for such a significant growth in demand for risky assets. Another fact in favor of the fact that everything is not as great as it seems is the IPO market. 2021 is a record year in terms of IPO volumes. But everything is not nearly as cool as it seems. Of more than 50 high-tech companies that went public in 2021, all (!) are now in the minus relative to the peak values ​​of quotations. Moreover, this is not some 5-10% that can be attributed to local correction. These are full -30% + (Rivian), -60% + (Didi) and even -70% + (Robinhood).
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Trade24Fx
1