JICPT| Crude oil approaching key level, likely to rebound!Hello crude oil traders and investors. Days ago, I've published an idea titled 'Where could crude oil go this time from the big picture'. I mentioned $114 is the possible target.
Recently, crude oil fell on the rising covid-19 cases in Europe(Austria partial lockdowns) , and potential release of Japanese oil reserves. The circulated news sparked concern of both oversupply and weak demand.
We've been through this one year ago, right? So familiar. The difference is the high vaccination rate in Europe and US compared to last year. So I'm expecting low hospitalization and death rate compared to last time. As it's a technical analysis, Let's put aside the news and focus on the chart.
Based on the linked idea, I drew red line around key structure around 74.8 that was previous high created in Oct.,2018. Market drop on the shale oil and rising inventories.
Now, crude oil pulled back from $85 with formation of series of bearish red candles on the weekly. This week is crucial for buyers. If weekly candle is small basing or one with long tail, reversal is likely to happen and price may start another rally again.
What do you think? Give me a like if you're with me.
NEWS
Thanksgiving, Pandemic in Europe and the Doom of EvergrandePurely statistically, the current week for the US stock market should be successful. Beginning in 1950, on average, the last five trading days of November ended with an increase in the US stock market. The market has a two-thirds chance of rising on the day before Thanksgiving, and a 71% chance of the market rising on the Monday after Thanksgiving. But these are statistics, how it will actually be - time will tell.
Although there is reason for optimism here and now. This refers to the successful House vote on a $ 1.75 trillion bill that would radically expand the US social safety net.
But markets also have reason to worry. Austria announced a complete lockdown, Germany, through the mouth of Merkel, announced the need for tougher restrictions to control infections. The situation is very difficult in the Netherlands, Hungary and a number of other European countries. In general, the rapid economic recovery in Europe seems to have to be forgotten.
And the development sector in China is becoming more and more toxic for investors. Evergrande is excluded from the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index. And S&P Global predicts the default of the second largest developer in China at the start of next year. The fact is that in March and April 2022, the company will need to pay the principal amount of $ 3.5 billion on its public bonds denominated in US dollars. Considering that Evergrande is now struggling to scrape together hundreds or two of millions of dollars selling its properties, the chances of covering $ 3 billion look more than elusive.
In general, we continue to monitor the mood in the markets - they will determine where prices will move.
Week in a Glance: Retail Reports, Bank of Turkey, JapanThe past week did not seem to bring anything radically new to the balance of power in the financial markets, and there were no important planned events either. But as a result, a lot of things have accumulated, starting with the signing of an infrastructure plan by Biden and the adoption by Congress of a social spending plan for almost 2 trillion, ending with another shot by the Bank of Turkey in the leg of the lira and the announcement of a new large-scale stimulus program in Japan.
The week began with an interview with the head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, in which it was very clear: no rate hike in the foreseeable future, because the economy needs to be saved and the hell with inflation will dissipate by itself. The Bank of Turkey was more categorical in this regard: the rate was cut by 1%. And this is with inflation at 20%. It turns out that it is possible to fight fire anyway - by filling it with gasoline. The Turkish lira, as expected, burns, continuing its fall into the abyss.
It's not just Turkey or the US that suffers from inflation. Data from the UK was released last week, showing the fastest growth in consumer inflation in the last 10+ years. And retail prices have risen so much, unprecedented since 1991. On this occasion, everyone again looked towards the Bank of England (we are talking about the expectations of a rate hike by the Central Bank).
Perhaps the only country that now has no problems with inflation is Japan. But it has problems with the economy - GDP in the third quarter dipped by 3%. As a result, it was decided to spend about 56 trillion yen ($ 490 billion) on the stimulus package.
In general, the past week was a week of retail: the largest US retailers reported (easily beat the forecasts for both profit and revenues), and also published statistics on retail sales in the US, China and the UK (the data came out much higher than forecasts).
This gave a reason for the US stock market to grow further. But in general, in light of the fact that all good things have already happened (the reporting season is almost over, Biden's infrastructure plan has already been adopted), there are big questions about his future. After all, there are no fewer threats on the horizon, on the contrary, there are more and more reasons for concern. Austria, for example, is introducing a nationwide lockdown. And it is very likely that this is only the first sign, since the pandemic situation in Europe is rapidly deteriorating. And then Yellen reminded of the public debt ceiling and that the Treasury will run out of money by mid-December, and there, without a new law, there will be default. And there is no law, as well as the desire of the Republicans to help the Democrats pass it.
Bank of Turkey Does Lira In, and EV-Investors Fix ProfitsYesterday can hardly be called overly eventful in terms of news. Perhaps the main news can be considered another attack of economic insanity on the part of the Bank of Turkey. After Erdogan multiplied the independence of the country's Central Bank by zero, his vision of economic laws materialized in the form of a change in the vector of monetary policy in the country.
Recall, according to Erdogan, to fight inflation, rates need to be lowered. And since inflation in the country is at 20%, it is not surprising that the Bank of Turkey cut the rate for the third row in a row yesterday. This time by 1%. The main problem with this approach is that everyone in the foreign exchange market believes that the rate cut will accelerate inflationary processes in the country and further devaluation of the national currency. Accordingly, sales of the lira continued with new all-time lows. It is difficult to find today a more hopeless asset in the foreign exchange market than the Turkish lira. So, despite the fact that it has already decreased in price by 6 times over the past few years, this is far from the limit.
Another highlight is the announcement of a new stimulus package in Japan. Everyone has already begun to forget, in light of the sharp intensification of inflationary processes and vaccinations, about billions of dollars in incentives to support the economy. But since inflation is not a problem for Japan (not a problem yet), but economic growth is a problem (recall, in the last quarter, the country's GDP collapsed by 3%), the news about the plan to spend about 56 trillion yen (490 billion dollars) on the stimulus package looks logical enough. For buyers in the Japanese stock market, this is great news.
But they don't buy everywhere now. In the US stock market, investors decided it was time to take profits in the overheated EV segment of the US auto market. Rivian closed down 15.53% and Lucid down 10.47%. Note that Rivian and Lucid (in fact, two shell companies) occupy the 2nd and 3rd places in terms of capitalization in the US automotive market, ahead of such titans as Ford and General Motos.
Inflation's Everywhere, and Yellen Reminds of the US DefaultYesterday was rich in inflation data from everywhere: the Eurozone, Great Britain, Canada. And decisively everywhere it grew, even relative to the already multi-year maximums. Take the UK, for example. Consumer prices there rose to their highest level in the last 10 years, and if you look at retail prices, they generally climbed to rates that have not been seen since 1991.
Naturally, everyone is now looking towards the Bank of England. Even the pound, which had been dull lately, raised its head in the hope of a rate hike at the start of 2022.
The situation in the Eurozone is not much better, but Lagarde was extremely clear in her last interview, so you can return to the idea of medium-term sales of the EURGBP cross.
And although the US stock market is in a very good state after a super-successful reporting season, this does not diminish the clouds on the horizon. Let us recall the key threats today: inflation and tightening of monetary policy by leading central banks, a pandemic and new strains of the virus, and the development sector in China.
So yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reminded everyone with a short memory that there is still a threat of US default. According to the latest estimates, the money from the government will end on December 15 (according to previous estimates, the deadline was December 3). That is, if in the near future Congress does not raise the ceiling of public debt, it will not seem enough to anyone. First of all, the totally overvalued US stock market.
We will remind, the Republicans publicly refused the new vote in conjunction with the Democrats. So very soon the focus of the markets may shift from the topic of the successful reporting season to the topic of default.
Retail Day, IEA Report and Some Problems in ChinaYesterday can be called a retail day, at least on a US scale. Data on retail sales in the United States were published, as well as reports from key retailers: Walmart and Home Depot. And it was a good day. Retail sales in the US rose 1.7%, while experts expected growth of 1.4%.
The reporting of retailers was also encouraging. Both Walmart and Home Depot's third-quarter earnings and earnings exceeded experts' expectations. As a result, Walmart raised its revenue forecast for the year. And this season of festive madness has not begun yet.
In general, according to FactSet, almost 95% of companies from the S&P 500 have already reported, of which 81% presented better-than-expected profit results. So the reporting season was more than a success. In this light, the growth of US stock indices looked quite logical and reasonable yesterday.
Following the OPEC and EIA reports, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published its vision of the oil market yesterday. The demand forecast for the fourth quarter is unchanged, but the supply growth is expected to be 330K more than before. And in general, by December, Saudi Arabia and Russia will be pumping more than 10 million barrels per day - for the first time since April last year.
As for oil prices, the EIA is not particularly counting on it: not only because of expectations of an increase in supply, but also due to the increase in Covid-19 diseases in Europe and weaker manufacturing activity than previously expected.
Since we started talking about problems, it would be no sin to remember China, where developers are desperately looking for cash: someone like Sunac China sells off shares on the cheap, someone like China Aoyuan Group real estate in Hong Kong, and someone like Kaisa Group all I also could not scrape together the money for the next payment and delayed it by starting the timer of my loan day. So you shouldn't relax: there are enough threats on the horizon.
Grantham Is Against Tesla, and the ECB Is Not Against InflationWe already wrote last week that the analysis of basic investment multiples shows that Tesla shares are overvalued by an average of 40 times relative to competitors. The other day, one of the legends of the investment world, Jeremy Grantham, warned that a bubble was inflated from Tesla shares. Tesla's current stock prices are a projection of investor expectations that the company will be super successful in a super successful market. The reality is that there is practically no chance of meeting expectations. The competition is intensifying: today every major car company is introducing electric vehicles into its lineup. As a result, Tesla's share in the global electric vehicle market is now not 90%, or even 50%, but about 15%.
Volkswagen alone has already sold under 300K electric vehicles in the first three quarters. And this is already close to the volumes of Tesla. But at the same time, the same Volkswagen sells about 10 million more cars from above. And the growth rate of sales of electric vehicles from Volkswagen is almost 2 times higher than that of Tesla. Another 1-2 years at such a pace and a new king may appear on the electric vehicle market. But for some reason, none of those who foaming at the mouth speaks about the bright future of the electric car market are running to buy Volkswagen shares. But the company is not much less the leader in the electric vehicle market in Europe, which in turn, after China, is the largest in the world 4 times ahead of the US market.
In general, the selectivity of perception of reality is not only a problem for Tesla fans. At the start of the week, the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde confirmed that a rate hike by the Central Bank in 2022 is very unlikely. On the one hand, the ECB does not want to harm the economic recovery. By the way, data on the Eurozone GDP will be published today. On the other hand, the ECB is convinced that inflation is a temporary phenomenon and will resolve itself. That is, the Central Bank will not even have time to do anything, as it will be gone.
#SaitamaInu Legal Business Registered in the US Changing LivesSaitama Inu was launched on the Ethereum network on May 31st, 2021
Since then the token has changed the lives of many.
As of this writing here are a few quick takeaways:
1. Legal entity registered in the United States making any thoughts that this could be a rug pull or a quick money making scheme almost null and void.
2. Registration gives it quick access to the top of the lists for sites like Robinhood and Coinbase to list it eventually.
3. Dev team is fully doxxed and all have impressive resumes.
4. SaitaMask will revolutionze the crypto industry with many firsts of its kind.
5. Already listed on many minor exchanges including Gate.IO, Poloniex, Bitmart and BKEX
6. Have placed rolling advertisements in the middle of Time Square
7. Has almost 250K Holders
Future Roadmap of Things to Come:
1. SaitaMask - DeFi Wallet Mobile App where you will be able to do anything with any token without leaving the app 2021
2. SaitaMaker - NFT Platform will allow users to create, launch and promote their projects 2022
3. SaitaMarket - Marketplace where Saita tokens can be used to purchase goods 2022
4. SaitaEdutainment - Multichannel Platform with Exclusive Educational Content 2022
5. SaitaSocial - TBD 2022
6. SaitaChain - TBD Blockchain created on the Ethereum Network by 2023
7. SaitaSafe - Hard Wallet for Saita Holders 2022
8. SaitaPayments - Payment Solutions 2022
9. Listing on Major Exchanges - Ongoing
10. Major Marketing Push - Ongoing
SaitaMask will incorporate SaitaMaker, SaitaMarket, SaitaEdutainment into a one stop shop for everything in a mobile app where users can connect their banks to.
Tokenomics:
4% Tax on all Transactions:
2% Reflected back to Holders
2% Burned
54% Of the Entire Supply has already been burned
45% In Circulation
4% Locked for Liquidity
Anti-Whale Trap Embedded in the Token
The token also boosts several socials including: A Telegram chat, Instagram, Twitter, Discord and Facebook
saitamatoken.com
$EGC HyperDeflationary First Crypto to Reward in BUSDLaunched in Mid September of 2021 it listed on CoinMarketCap, Blockfolio, and CoinGecko in October.
What is $EGC?
$ECG is basically a deflationary token on the Binance Smart Chain that rewards coin holders with 8% for every buy/sell transaction. That 8% is divided up proportionally to all holders based on the amount of $ECG you own. It is deflationary in that, the coin will become more scarce overtime due to a built in burn rate.
Developer profiles: evergrowcoin.com Just based on scanning their LinkedIn profiles, they seem like an experienced group that needs to work on their smiling.
Tokenomics:
45% Pre-Sale and Initial Liquidity
50% Sent to Burn Address
3% Founders and Team
2% Airdropped
1. 1,000,000,000,000,000 Max Supply
2. 517 Trillion Already burned 51%
3. $24 Mil in Reflections already awarded in $BUSD
14% Tax on transactions:
8% Reflected back in BUSD Awards
4% Transferred to Liquidity Pool
1% Burned
1% Marketing
The token has many socials: A Telegram chat, Discord, Twitter, Facebook and Reddit Group
The team also has many things planned for the future including:
1. NFT Lending
2. NFT Marketplace
3. Subscription Platform
4. Play to Earn Gaming
5. DApps Development
6. Exchange Development
7. Staking Pools
8. Exchange Listings
9. Massive Marketing Campaigns
10. Partnership with Content Creators
To quote their website " Our own play-to-earn game where every type of “Hero” has unique strengths & weaknesses, requiring players to mix & match accordingly. Players receive daily login rewards & earn NFTs while enjoying the gameplay. These NFT’s can be used both: our built-in NFT marketplaces and trading with other players while holding them means Players will benefit from the rise of the in-game asset’s economy." Similar to the wild success of Axie infinity, which if done right could make the company and players a fortune.
1% of every transaction is allocated to marketing and continued fueling of their ambitious projects in the future
They also do something call NFT lending. So you can borrow against the value of the NFTs you own to buy more, all without having to sell your NFT. Kind of cool and a first of its kind.
$SVT #SpaceVikings Plan To Dominate Beer Market Through CryptoLaunched on Sept 19th, 2021 Space Vikings has intended to disrupt the $500,000,000,000 Beer Industry by launching their own line of beer products. What makes them special however is that so far they are the only Beer crypto doing it, cornering a niche market early and being the first to launch, they are steeming forward with their plans for beer domination.
The token features a fully doxxed team of experts that are active on all social media and engages with holders.
Their social media includes: A Telegram chat, Twitter, Instagram, Reddit, Twitch and a Youtube channel: www.youtube.com
Having already burned over 250 Trillion or 1/4th of their total token supply the tokenomics of the coin make it very appealing as well.
Tokenomics:
1% for Weekly Jackpots (in $SVT)
1% to raise funds for Raids (in $BNB)
2% for the Marketing Wallet (in $BNB)
2% automatically for PCS Liquidity Pool
4% is redistributed amongst all holders
= 10% tax on all transactions
The Total Supply breakdown is also somewhat different from other cryptos:
Supply Distribution:
5% to the developer wallet
5% towards the project wallet (Future Projects)
25% distributed for V1 holders and community contributors
30% up for presale at DxSale
15% will be burned after presale (More than this has been burned since then.)
20% locked SVT for PancakeSwap liquidity
= 100% of total supply / 1 quadrillion tokens
The team also has weekly raffles on Twitter which hodlers can enter to win. In addition they have an extensive marketing and development plan in the works which includes:
1. Hiring a major marketing team
2. Start the process of becoming a legal entity
3. Start the development of their OdinSwap Exchange
4. Relist their V2 of the Token on CMC and CG
5. Confirm partnerships with breweries
6. Audit Release
7. Community voting for Beer flavors
8. Website improvements
All the above by Year's End. They also have extensive plans going into the Summer of next year including:
1. First Beer release in Denmark
2. OdinSwap launch with Easy Buy Option
3. Exchange Listings
4. International Beer Distribution Plan
5. Beer profits Redistribution
6. DApps Development
7. Aggressive Marketing Campaigns
8. Improved Website
9. New Beer Flavors
Let's suppose $SVT does a deal with Major breweries in 4 different countries to produce their Viking beer.
www.globenewswire.com
If I read their PR correctly, the profit from that can pay "dividends" to $SVT #hodlers plus it can keep $SVT going while they start their OdinSwap DEX and continue burning tokens.
If they do this right, it could be a model for all other cryptos -- A fusion of legacy corporate structure with a decentralized digital asset.
Space Vikings just might be revolutionary.
www.spacevikingsllc.com
$ADACash #ADACash Gives 10% $ADA Rewards Huge Marketing PresenceLaunched on September 16th, 2021 $ADACash has grown substantially moving up the ranks of the Cryptoverse.
Tokenomics:
15% Tax on Buys and Sells:
10% Goes to Holders as $ADA reflections
3% Goes to Marketing the token
2% To the Liquidity Pool
The team has been using the marketing wallet as can be seen if ADACash is searched for in Google there is a promoted search that is the top link in addition every Adacash link is in the top 10 links including the website itself which is the second link after the Google Ad. They also are planning on starting banner ads on crypto related websites.
They also plan to have a marketing campaign with BusinessInsider, Bloomberg and more.
They already have had their first article published in Yahoo Finance:
www.yahoo.com
The team also has a large social media presence including a Telegram chat, Instagram, Twitter, Reddit, Discord and a Youtube channel: www.youtube.com
They also are doxxed and have an established plan for the token including applying for Cex listings including Bitmart first and other more established ones that the community will vote on. They also plan on partnering with social media influencers and gurus.
adacash.io
$LEASH $SHIB s Big Brother Finds Support Ready For the Next Leg $SHIB Has begun trading sideways after finding major support. It's bigger brother $LEASH has as well. I anticipate the two to follow each other and slowly move back up, ending in a parabolic move that feeds off of each other. $LEASH has a 107K Market Cap making it possible to get to $100K a coin, even at $100K a coin it will still have a lower overall market cap than its brother $SHIB.
There are many utilities with $LEASH including Defi and the NFT marketplace.
Week in a Glance: Inflation, Pandemic, Infrastructure PlanThe past week was quite busy for the financial markets. And if it began very positively for risky assets with the news that Congress had finally adopted Biden's infrastructure plan, then after the publication of inflation data from the United States, the mood changed radically.
Manufacturing inflation has renewed historical highs, while consumer inflation has reached its highest levels in the last 30 years. At the same time, the CPI already exceeds the Fed's target by 3 times. As a result, the markets are again thinking about tightening US monetary policy and raising rates in 2022.
We also remembered the markets and the pandemic. And although the main concern, according to the results of surveys by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, is new strains, but so far the good old delta is enough for Germany, Greece and a number of other countries to reach new highs in the number of cases.
Another cause for concern has traditionally been the Chinese developer Evergrande. Another deadline expired on Wednesday. It seems that at the very last minute, the default was again avoided, but the future still looks extremely gloomy, since the company is simply selling itself in parts and sooner or later liquid assets will come to an end.
The reporting season continues, but last week it was not very happy: Disney and Coinbase flopped. Major US retailers as well as Nvidia are reporting this week and the season can be closed after that.
Oil was under pressure last week following the publication of monthly OPEC and EIA reports. OPEC expects a decrease in demand at the end of the year due to high oil prices, and EIA predicts a surplus in the oil market as early as 2022. So oil sales look very promising in the medium term, especially in light of the fact that the energy crisis has lost some of its severity: coal prices in China fell by 50%, and in Australia - by a third, and Russia has also increased gas supplies to Europe.
The coming week will not be rich in super important events, but there will be quite a lot of macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone (GDP, consumer inflation) and the UK (labor market, retail sales, inflation), Canada (inflation and retail sales), China and the USA (retail sales ). So it won't be boring anyway.
Understanding News ManipulationIt is crucial to understand the price action prior to a high impact news event.
Analysing the range to the left beforehand can help you determine what move is likely to come next.
In this example, we saw the price was driven down by the bears to stop out buyers, only to reverse immediately to the upside moments after the news had been released.
By studying and acquiring knowledge like this, you can predict market moves that are likely to come with fundamentals.
Find the liquidity and trade it, or be the liquidity.