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Week in a Glance: optimism, pandemic and earnings season aheadThe main result of the week was new historical highs in the Nasdaq Index. The reason for the sharp rise in optimism on Friday was information from Gilead Sciences about the latest test results for remdesivir, which, according to their data, reduces the risk of death from coronavirus by 62%. Oil was added to the fire by Biontech, saying that they are ready to provide the vaccine by December (meaning to submit it to regulatory authorities). All this, of course, is great. But buyers clearly do not ask themselves one simple question: what to do here and now, when last week a new absolute maximum was recorded in the number of new cases in the world and the USA in particular. Today this is more urgent issue, since a week or two of such a tendency and lockdown No. 2 will become real. Also, none of the buyers seem to be interested in the dynamics of bankruptcies: their number continues to grow and we are not talking about small companies, but about entire networks of retail trader, restaurants, gyms, etc. Last week, the legendary Brooks Brothers filed for the Bankruptce, and Ascena Retail Group Inc (Ann Taylor, LOFT, Lou & Gray, Justice, Lane Bryant, Catherines and Cacique brands) plans to file for bankruptcy. Other names include Rosehill Resources Inc., Sur La Table, Lucky Brand Dungarees, Muji, G-Star RAW USA and many others. This week will be fulfilled with important events: ECB, Bank of Japan and Bank of Canada will provide us with their decisions. In addition to important macroeconomic statistics such as China’s GDP for the second quarter, UK GDP for May, US retail sales for June, we are waiting for the start of the earnings season in the US for the second quarter. The earnings season promises to be the most disastrous in history. That is why we have until recently recommended and still recommend sales in the US stock market despite its growth. Total overvaluation, multiplies by disastrous data of corporations will become the last straw that will fill the cup of patience and the bubble will go to the stage of collapse. Traditionally, banks will be the first to report. Recall that last quarter, the drawdown in their profits ranged from 50% (CitiGroup) to 90% (Wells Fargo). And this is according to the results of the quarter, when the US did not yet have an epidemic and lockdown. So there is every reason to expect losses in the second quarter, when the economy showed the largest drop in history.
DJ:DJIShort
by Trade24Fx
10
Jobless claims, Lockdown #2 and earnings season aheadFrom the point of macroeconomic statistics, the main event of yesterday was the publication of weekly data on jobless claims in the United States. New applications were submitted by 1.3 million, while the total number of unemployment beneficiaries is still above 18 million. What these numbers are talking about is basically: there is no quick economic recovery. Recall that the labor market is one of the most sensitive segments, and weekly jobless claims are in fact the most closest to real-time data, and they say that a month after the start of the reopening of the US economy, the situation in labor market continues to be unprecedentedly bad. So we continue to swim against the tide and recommend sales in the US stock market. Well, recall that the earnings season in the United States starts next week, which will almost certainly be the worst for all time observations. It will be extremely interesting to observe the actions of bulls in the US stock market. How easy will it be for them to buy at historic highs when companies report a fall in profits of 50% or even 100%, as well as a two-digit decrease in revenue. And let’s not forget about the pandemic. The number of new cases in the world yesterday showed a new absolute maximum. The situation in the USA continues to raise concerns of “lockdown No. 2”: for two consecutive days, the number of new cases there has exceeded 60K. According to the chief infectious disease specialist Faucci, the situation is developing exponentially again, which means that his forecast of 100K, announced last week, remains relevant. Our trading positions for today are unchanged: we are looking for points to buy the dollar, especially against the British pound, we will sell in the stock markets, as well as in the oil market.
Short
by Trade24Fx
2
Gold records, US unemployment, oil status quo Looking at the dynamics of stock markets, it seems that the global economy is experiencing its best times. At the same time, an analysis of macroeconomic statistics indicates that times are just the worst in history. Who is right? We propose to use gold and the dynamics of its prices as an arbiter. So yesterday, the asset rose above the $ 1800 mark (the highest prices since 2011). In our opinion, this is vivid evidence in favor of the fact that everything is far from being as good in the “Danish kingdom” as it seems, if you look at the dynamics of stock markets. Recall that gold is traditionally considered a safe haven asset and a sharp increase in demand for it (the inflow of funds into gold ETFs this year has already exceeded the maximum levels recorded in 2009) is one of the signs that investors are scared. And given that gold has approached historical highs, investors are apparently very scared. Another reason for concern, the markets may receive today after the publication of data on jobless claims. The increase in the number of unemployed will be a serious reason for the growth of fears. In our opinion, this is quite a likely scenario, given that many states are curtailing programs to open economies. According to official data, US oil reserves grew by 5.6 million barrels for the week, but given that they fell by 7.2 million barrels last week, markets did not use this data as a reason to sell the asset. In general, the status quo in the oil market is maintained, and we continue to recommend sell oil at current prices with small stops. As for the other positions, we note that the dollar came close to its lower limits against most currencies, so the sale of EURUSD, GBPUSD or AUDUSD seems to us to be great deals today. But with small stops, since a breakdown of the lower border of the dollar could provoke massive selloffs.
Short
by Trade24Fx
GBP/USD: Fundamental and Analysis: More bullish yet!!!Hello, in this technical analysis the conduct of Sterling is so bullish for mid-term as short-term. Studying the fundamentals, there are a nice favorable of this currency while the bad fundamentals for US Dollar. So, in Daily we are into the making a pull back and then I proyect that easily Sterling it''s can to reach at the mark of $1.28 USD, and why not to above of $1.30 USD. So, guys in mid-term we see a Sterling so bullish about the speculation of Brexit and UK is prepare about this speculation. Now, in H4 timeframe we continue up and this morning I entry in the $1.2538 for long position until the $1.28 USD to find up 264 pips in some days. So, Sterling Pound is so bullish so so but so bullish for mid-term about and based in my fundamentals that I write on my notebook. So, the fundamentals to take in noticed is down here: 1. Fortnight lows for EUR to Pound Exhange Rate ahead of UK summer statement 2. EUR to Pound exchange rate steadies lower ahead of UK Chancellor's Statements 3. There are a fears of a second round of coronavirus infections continue to rise, and this is weighing on the EUR to Pound Sterling exchange rate. 4. But still, EUR outlook remains stronger than the pound outlook so these losses may prove temporary 5. Otherpoint is that EUR exchange ate steadying lower as market await European Union fund developments 6. Concerns that the coronavirus recovery won't be as much of a rebound as previously hoped have been withing on the EUR over the past week. 7. As signs of a secound wave amid surges of infections in the US and some parts of Australia, investors have been less optimistic about a global recovery. 8. Pound exchange rates edging higher on Brexit Speculation 9. Since last week, fresh speculation that UK-EU relationship about the brexit negotiations is could see productive developments this month have been supporting sterling 10. Pound to US Dollar exchange rate dips as risk sentiment of drops on rising US covid 19 cases more yet. So, in my conclusion, that fundamentals make a Pound so bullish then another pars: 1. EUR/GBP: Bearish sentiment 2: GBP/USD: Bullish sentiment 3: GBP/JPY: Bullish sentiment 4: GBP/AUD: Bullish sentiment 5: GBP/CAD: Bullish sentiment So, technically are bullish the GBP all pars, but some important that maybe of these list there are not bullish, but some important is always to make a technical analysis. But in based on fundamentals, GBP is so bullish for mid-term about the bad news that leave of US covid 19, speculation of brexit is prepared to trade the UK and European Union relationship, and othepoint to take in noticed!!!
Long
by harisonhbn9718
Forecasts revisions, US closing again, NovavaxYesterday, the financial markets were relatively calm. In the morning, the euro was under pressure. The reason was the revision of forecasts for the Eurozone economy by the European Commission. Traditionally, for the last time, the revise goes for the worse: a reduction of 8.7% is expected. It is difficult to disagree with these forecasts, especially if you look at the statistics on industrial production in Germany, also published yesterday. With forecasts of industrial production growth in May by 11.1% m / m, the fact of growth was only 7.8% m / m. Why is it bad? Well, because this is a figure relative to last month, when the fall was 17.5%. If you look at what is happening relative to the same period last year, we have a decline of almost 20% (!). This is about the quick recovery of the economy (Germany in May actively reopened). Meanwhile, more cities and the United States are turning off plans for re-opening and closing again. Yes, so far we are not talking about a complete lockdown, but the restrictions are increasing every day. There are enough reasons for this: the number of cases is close to 3 million people, and the new daily cases are above 55K. At the same time, an increase in the number of cases is observed in 41 US states. Against this background, the statements by the head of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank that the US economic recovery is in trouble look more than logical and appropriate. Novavax pulled out a lucky ticket in the form of a reward from the US Government in the amount of $ 1.6 billion for the development and manufacture of the vaccine. The government wants to see the result in the form of an established production process by January. This is a question about the timing when the vaccine may appear on the shelves. The rally in the Chinese stock market continues, as, indeed, the rampant growth of Tesla shares. Well, the harder they would fall.
DJ:DJIShort
by Trade24Fx
Long road ahead, goodbye V and hello WAs daily cases around the world increase, the fact that in 2020 we will not see any return to the pre-pandemic level becomes more and more obvious. Lucky if this happens in 2021. In light of the US labor market data released last week, there were some interesting forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The US unemployment rate could reach 4.4 percent only in the fourth quarter of 2030. By the way 4.4% is much higher than the historically low level of 3.5 percent that was observed in the USA before the outbreak of COVID-19. This is about the long road ahead. So goodbye V-shape and hello W (with any luck). CBO gave their updated and very gloomy vision on US GDP growth in 2020: -5.9%. This is even worse than the updated forecast from Goldman Sachs, which is expecting a 4.6% slowdown in the US economy in 2020. JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecast global debt growth of $ 16 trillion by the end of 2020, and the total amount will exceed $ 200 trillion. This is to the question of why stock markets do not fall against the background of such forecasts of economic growth rates and its current state. In fact, there is an unprecedented injection of money into the stock market. How this will end is understandable, the whole question is when the bubble will burst (sooner or later, debts will need to be repaid, which means selloffs in the stock market). The Chinese stock market index CSI 300, for example, has grown by 14% over the past 5 days, and added another 5.7% yesterday after state-owned media in China set up an advertising campaign for investing in the Chinese stock market. This growth is even greater than in December 2014. By the way, the Chinese stock market collapsed in 2015 (just a fact).
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by Trade24Fx
1
Waoh, Australin Dollar is strenghten as US is in problems!!!That is my proyection in H4 timeframe on how we see AUD for the next hours in each H4 candlestick, and more importan is to see in H1 timeframe when the price is going to down a little it's make a pull back. For now, there are not reccomendation to operate and trade this par, we need to hope the confirmations, because there are two probabilities: 1. The price is going to break up, make a pull back ang go down the up the price 2. The other possibility is tha price is going to down until the $0.6899 USD approximattely and then, make a buy with confirmation of bullish candlestick, so important then. So, but in generally we see that Australian economy is recovery and there are not news of this country, but, technically we see to proyect a recover of the AUD currency. And also, for tomorrow we have a important economic calendar of 3 bulls that mean a extreme volatil movement of the AUD for tomorrow when will be the meeting about the Reserve Bank of Australia it's will have a meeting this week about the monetary policy and rate decision. There are a commentary is what expert called a remain at the current all-time low of 0.25% of rate interest on signs the downturn will not be as bad as expected. A more upbeat to from the central bank and recent gains in commodity prices such as copper will boost the "Aussie". So, in midterm we see as expert of financial market is that Australin Dollar is into the recovery and we hope that this currency are up the price in the next months, that we hope. And also, about the situation in United States, the states of the union are growup the number of cases of coronavirus as New York, California and Florida had a lot cases in the past weeks, so this indicator is bad for the United States. Also, why not we created a special analysis for Saturday about the proyection of this par AUD/USD in weekly and monthly, and Daily too to see in long term. That is so interesting in my mind to created it.
Long
by harisonhbn9718
EUR/USD is up for German factory indicator: That is bullish!!!Easily, the only we need to hope is the price is leave at the 0.382% of Fibonacci, and remember and most importan is wait the candlestick group when have a confirmation of buy off. That is very important to trade this par. Also, yesterday I make a little updated of this analysis and we found out a double top compared as Bitcoin do in the movement too. The double top it's show in the red arrox, these 2 arrows are the double bottom and wow, the prie is go up near of 1%. That is good!!! But, I didn't enter because the most is to be patient and hope what is the price conduct, because it's not necceary because the price also can to down as up now happen in Tokio or Assia session trade. Also, if you want to check our my related ideas as EUR/GBP that have my fundamentals, you can to click down of my related ideas of the par Euro/Sterling Pound, and included US Dollar/Canadian Dollar I add too. So, be patient that EUR/USD is reach donw the 0.382% of Fibonacci to entry in long, in the next hours I will going to check this par as all open pars in trades. Because all pars that I have opened from yesterday in cryptocurrencies and Forex from Thursday of the past week I going in profit and earning in this 4 trades open up.
Long
by harisonhbn9718
Week in a Glance: NFP, pandemic, best quarter, etc.The main event of the past week was the publication of data on the US labor market. The NFP data came out very impressive: + 4.8 million with a forecast of +3 million. But the overall minus in NFP since the start of pandemic is still about 15 million and it is already obvious that it is unlikely to be able to level it before the end of the year. And this means that there will be no quick economic recovery. One of the factors contributing to this is the second wave of epidemic un the US. More than 50K new cases per day is a serious reason for concern. As a result, a number of states are tightening measures with all the ensuing consequences for the labor market and the economy as a whole. U.S. chief infectious disease specialist Anthony Faucci announced the figure of 100K new cases per day in the nearest future. Last week was marked as the best quarter for the US stock market over the past few decades. We have already noted that this happened just before the dot-com bubble collapsed, as well as before the stock market crash in 1987. So, this is not a cause for joy, but rather an extremely alarming signal. Tesla bypassed Toyota in terms of capitalization. Which, in our opinion, is a clear sign that the markets have totally lost their minds: Tesla produces 25 (!) times less cars than Toyota, and its revenue is 10 (!) times less. In general, it's time to sell Tesla , while there are still crazy people buying it at $ 1,200 per share. The Brexit talks again ended with nothing. So, pound sales this week remain our basic trading idea for the FOREX. As for the general trend in the positions, we will give preference to purchases of the dollar, first of all against the Australian and Canadian dollars. In the stock market, we will continue to look exclusively for sales opportunities as well as in the oil market. As for the upcoming week, it will be exclusively desaturated on fundamental events. By and large, this will be one of the last weeks of rest, the calm before the storm, which will almost certainly begin with the start of the earnings season in the USA and the publication of US GDP data for the second quarter.
Short
by Trade24Fx
2
US labor market, sanctions and the end of free cheeseThe main event of yesterday was the publication of data on the US labor market for June. In fact, it was a month of active reopening of the US economy, respectively, signals were expected from the labor market about quick restoration of the economy. On the one hand, the data on NFPs pleasantly surprised: with a forecast of +3 million in fact, the increase in NFPs amounted to +4.8 million. But on the other hand, if you look at the data in the context of the accumulated effect, it is still extremely negative. The labor market is still minus about 14 million in terms of the NFP and this is very serious. The fact is that we will hardly see the figure of 5 million next month, which means that restoration will take not 2-3 months, but the whole of 2020 and possibly part of 2021. And all other things being equal, that is, the pandemic will recede and the states will continue to reopen. In the meantime, the US is updating records for the number of new infections, and some states continue to curtail programs to open economies. That is, in fact, next month we will not see figures similar to yesterday, but in general we can see even a negative number in the graph of new jobs created. In general, such a large-scale crisis in the US labor market, has not yet spoken yet its word for only one reason: government support. Checks from the Government have not yet allowed the following logical chain to be realized: no work, no salary, no money, nothing to pay bills, nothing to buy goods with all the ensuing economic consequences in the form of a banking crisis, falling demand and, consequently, falling producer revenues, etc. So, we recall that currently July is the last month when the Government provides “free cheese”. If Congress does not vote to extend the current one or adopt a new aid act, then very soon we will see what is the real price of 20 million unemployed for the economy is. Meanwhile, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill imposing sanctions on banks that deal with Chinese officials involved in cracking down on demonstrators for democracy in Hong Kong. Let us look at the reaction of China, since all this is fraught with a new round of rising tension between US and China.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by Trade24Fx
4