Event-driven Trade: If US GDP deviates by >0.2 from forecastsToday we have a decent trading opportunity with US GDP - preliminary. USDJPY is setting itself up for a nice possible event-driven move. If we see GDP at 3.4% or better, I am going to buy into the spike and look at 40-50 pips take profit. Depending on the size of a possible negative reading, I will hold a sell to the 109 area.
Simultaneously, will be playing GOLD and 30Y treasury bonds.
Newstrading
Event-driven News Trade CAD retail salesI identified a target and support area being at 1.1950 on USDCAD and am waiting for a possible worse than expected reading in USDCAD to enter short. Will enter 2 positions at the same time: 1) Stop loss 12 pips measured from the low of the spike 2) stop loss 50 pips Both positions have a take profit at 1.1950.
Using a fast data feed for order entry. Trade management software takes care of stop loss and take profit. Risking 0.15% on each position. 58:1 risk-reward-ratio and 14:1.
BTC longterm trend (I'm new, give feedback pls)So after keeping my eyes on the chat and on the chart BTCUSD, I noticed a lot of people expect a dump. BTC has been roughly following the same trend for a while now (red lines) and people are expecting it to bounce of the top limit, resulting in a dump back downwards. But, taking the news into account, is there any reason to believe in a dump if there's no bad news coming up? Are these just speculations?
Sell GBP Anticipating Bad GBP DataToday is generally a quite day. In term of price action thus far USD is most bearish vs AUD most bullish.
The tier 1 event today however is with GBP. I do not think it is going to have huge impact but nevertheless the GBPCHF is very Net Long and looks like the market in general is expecting supportive GBP data. My analysis shows otherwise and I'd like to be there if market is wrong.
Price action is still mildly bullish for the pair and I've set a Limit Short around the 1.29 level. If it's not hit, I'll use market order to enter closer to data release. If data is bad as I anticipated I expect strong reverse reaction to take out Long's Stop-loss. If data is bad however, I'd take the trade off, I may also take it off if initial market reaction show that it doesn't care for the data, in which case I think retail sentiment can take over and push the pair above 1.29 level.
Long NZDCAD - Anticipating Bad CAD dataThis is probably will be my 2nd trade of the day. I don't intend to put it on yet since I may give market too much room to go against me.
The thesis is again based on my expectation that CAD data is bad vs the good expectation. It is however not a very significant data and it's isolated. If market has little reaction I'm not interested in holding it for long.
The pair in focus for me is NZDCAD. It is Net Short so far indicating CAD is bought there. Entry plan for me is to enter nearer to event announcement, ideally if the pair just hovering in the 0.885-0.883 area. I'll exit if the news came out good for CAD and also since this is an isolated event, if I can be in profit I'll probably take it off in the hour after the news.
Nice trade for the upcoming weekGBPNZD just broke a major level after The Sterlings strong news week, and will probably see more upside the coming weeks due to the news about a rate hike coming up in the next couple of months.
After this daily candle close I might go long next week if the candle closes above, if not, I think we will see another candle close above at a later time.
But I feel confident about this one.
GBPUSD - Trade the NewsGood morning traders,
This morning we have seen some decent numbers out of the UK in terms of CPI, PPI and RPI. These are all measures of inflation and therefore a precursor to an interest rate hike, which is what we are really interested in.
We will be employing our standard news trading strategy, i.e. watch the breakout and wait for a pullback into structure/fib levels before looking for a reason to enter.
All the best,
Mase.
Trading News ReleasesFor those who consider U.S. Major News Releases in trading, here are projections for the upcoming week's session:
** Projections ONLY **
GDP Growth Rate : From 2.6 to 2.0
Employment Rate : From 4.3 to 4.4
Inflation Rate : From 1.7 to 2.0
Interest Rate : From 1.25 to 1.25
Government Debt to GDP : From 106.10 to 106
Goods Trade Balance : From 43.6bn to 45.0bn / 46.6bn
Nonfarm Payrolls : From 209 to 165
Nonfarm Payrolls Private : From 205 to 192
ADP Employment Change : From 178 to 186
Personal Income : From 0.00 to 0.29
Consumer Confidence : From 97.6 to 95.0
Personal Spending : From 0.10 to 0.30
Personal Income : From 0.00 to 0.29
Building Permits : From 1230 to 1150
Housting Starts : From 1155 to 1190
New Home Sales : From 571 to 550
Pending Home Sales : From 0.50 to neg. 1.9
Existing Home Sales : From 5440 to 5500
Retail Sales MoM : From 0.60 to 0.30
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index : From 25.2 to 9
Ism New York Index : From 62.80 to 57.43
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index : From 16.80 to 14.3
Chicago Fed National Activity Index : From neg. 0.01 to +0.09
Philadelphia Fed Mfg. Index : From 18.90 to 12
Richmond Fed Mfg. Index : From 14.00 to 6
Full list can be found via provided url link: tradingeconomics.com
* PERSONAL REFERENCE ONLY. Please use your own rules and strategies prior to entering market.
** Forex trading involves HIGH RISK.
Before entering a trade, carefully consider your objectives, financial resources and level of experience.
USDJPY possible further BearishUSDJPY is currently trading at its lowest in 2 month period. Weaker than expected U.S. data brings this pair in view of further decline.
If breaks 109.9, likely bearish to 108.8 - keeping levels in mind:
S1 109.90 S2 109.40 S3 108.80
R1 110.35 R2 110.80 R3 111.20
Personal analysis only. Please use your own rules & strategies prior to entering market.
EURUSD Bullish trend w/cautionEURUSD appears to maintain a Bullish trend ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate release tomorrow (Friday).
A positive report could see a short-lived reversal, so caution is advised. However, positive or negative, the EUR appears to be able to maintain an upward trend even after the news settles.
For me, BIG NEWS = Caution so sitting this one out, picking back up next week. Good luck to all.
R1 1.1870 R2 1.1910 R3 1.1945
S1 1.1820 S2 1.1780 S3 1.1750
GBP/USD Range OutlookWhile GBP/USD swiftly bounced from it’s brief foray below $1.20, price has once again been capped by the range that you can clearly see in the daily chart
The upper level of the range is definitely acting as resistance and the way it held again back in the first week of February puts Cable in play for shorts. Just keep in mind that it’s a 700 pip range and we’re already 250 pips off the highs. If that’s too close to the middle and not playing the edges for you, then fair enough. But as always, I would then look to zoom into an intraday chart and find an area of short term support turned resistance to manage risk around