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NQ1! Supply Demand Levels 7/5Link to chart: www.tradingview.com After a low volume start of the week, we are running into news from 7/5-7/7. I am expecting to see some volatility due to the news releases we have this week and the start of July. We are currently sitting between zones on every timeframe, but most importantly, we did break out of the 4HR downtrend from June 16th. We are sitting near the beginning of that downtrend so I am interested to see if we can break upwards and out, or if we fail below and retest back. As always, staying open minded to what can happen next! EOW BULLS: A push to 6/16 highs of 15475 to 15524 (R1 Pivot on the 4HR). BEARS: A retest of 6/28 highs once more where price consolidated before at 15268 to 15228 to 15176 (P Pivot on the 4HR).
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by tradeswithjess
NQ1! Supply Demand Levels 6/20We just recently broke from the 1HR downtrend line and looking to break to make newer highs. We have news releases this week for possible momentum to do just that. For this reason, I have bigger EOW targets to possibly reach. For intraday targets, targeting 0.5-1% of the NQ price. BULLS:I am interested in breaking the top of the trendline at 6/16/23 recent highs of 15475 and then the Daily supply zone above to be filled near 15.5k. BEARS: I like the 14981 area as we had previous bounces on the 4HR TF about 3x. If we can break through this area, I would like the 14879 zone to be filled. Link for chart: www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by tradeswithjess
Daily Market Analysis - Thursday June 15, 2023Market Analysis: Global shares decline, dollar recovers as Fed pauses rate hikes; ECB and BOJ meetings awaited. Key events on the economic calendar include: New Zealand GDP (QoQ) for the first quarter. Eurozone Deposit Facility Rate announcement for June. Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision for June. US Core Retail Sales (MoM) data for May. US Initial Jobless Claims report. US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for June. US Retail Sales (MoM) data for May. Eurozone ECB Press Conference. On Wednesday, global stock markets saw a decline, while the US dollar managed to regain some of its losses. This came after the US Federal Reserve, as expected, announced a pause in its interest rate hikes. However, the central bank also hinted at the possibility of raising rates by an additional 0.5% before the end of the year. During its recent two-day meeting, the Federal Reserve presented new economic projections that indicated a potential 0.5% increase in borrowing costs by the end of 2023. This projection was based on a stronger-than-expected economy and a slower decline in inflation. US Fed funds rate The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), responsible for determining interest rates, unanimously stated in its policy statement that maintaining the current target interest rate range during this meeting would allow the committee to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. While it was widely anticipated that the US Federal Reserve would pause its rate hikes, the focus shifted to the communication surrounding potential future increases. In a surprising twist, the participants of the FOMC adopted a more hawkish stance. The median forecast for the end of 2023 regarding the Federal Funds rate was revised upward by 50 basis points, now ranging from 5.50% to 5.75%. SPX NASDAQ and DJI indices daily chart Following the announcement, the closing results of the stock market exhibited a mixed picture. The Dow Jones index concluded the day with a decline of over 230 points, while the S&P 500 index managed to secure a modest gain of 0.1%. The Nasdaq index, on the other hand, experienced a more significant increase of 0.4%. Notably, the Nasdaq Composite index was primarily driven by the positive performance of AI-related stocks, including Nvidia and AMD. In addition to the stock market movements, Wednesday started with Bitcoin surpassing the $26,000 milestone. However, it retraced shortly afterward and reached a 24-hour low of $25,791. Analysts are speculating that it may potentially drop further to $25,000. These sentiments are influenced by ongoing discussions on cryptocurrency regulation, which have been dominating the news recently. BTC/USD daily chart On the flip side, gold prices initially saw an uptick, reaching $1,959 per ounce during the session. However, as Asian traders kickstart their day, the price of gold has resumed its downward trajectory, edging closer to the $1,930 level. This downward movement can be attributed to the hawkish stance of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which has bolstered the United States Dollar (USD). The prevailing market sentiment currently favors the USD, consequently exerting downward pressure on the price of gold. XAU/USD daily chart The US dollar has demonstrated a decline against multiple currencies, resulting in a 0.32% drop in the DXY index. Among the currencies, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) experienced the most notable movement, surging by over one percent and reaching a three-week high at $0.6211. Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) and the British Pound (GBP) registered more modest gains, each recording an increase of 0.39%. NZD/USD daily chart Despite the release of favorable exports and machinery orders data, the Japanese yen encountered a 0.9% decline, emerging as the primary loser in the Asian markets. Investor focus was predominantly directed towards the upcoming Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting scheduled for Friday. It is widely expected that the central bank will maintain its accommodative monetary policy stance to bolster domestic economic growth. This anticipated approach is anticipated to have a favorable influence on Japanese stocks. USD/JPY daily chart Nevertheless, the Japanese yen is expected to encounter further selling pressure as interest rates rise in other regions, diminishing its appeal. Bank of Japan (BOJ) officials, including the newly appointed Governor Kazuo Ueda, have expressed their intention to maintain the bank's yield curve control policy to provide support to the domestic economy. Furthermore, the diminished anticipation of Japanese government intervention in stabilizing currency markets has contributed to the yen's weakening. While officials have issued verbal warnings, no concrete actions have been taken thus far. Currently, traders are closely watching the upcoming monetary policy announcements from the European Central Bank (ECB), scheduled for later in the day at 12:15 GMT. It is widely anticipated that the ECB will implement a 25 basis points increase in key rates. However, the Staff Economic Projections and the subsequent press conference by President Christine Lagarde will play a crucial role in shaping future policy direction. Market expectations indicate that interest rates will likely reach their peak in July, with speculation of an additional rate hike following June's increase, followed by a potential pause in September. If the ECB adopts a more hawkish stance by implementing a rate hike, it is expected to exert additional selling pressure on the price of gold.
by FOREXN1
1
Gold 4hr TF setup for CPI When considering CPI, a lower figure is preferred when buying assets such as gold, EUR, EURUSD, Cable, and indices. The weaker the CPI, the better it is for risk assets, especially those associated with hedging against the dollar. For instance, if there is a year-on-year 4.7% inflation and a month-on-month 0.2%, it would be ideal to buy indices and sell dollars because the data has outperformed. If the CPI is lower than expected, buying gold and selling dollars is a good option. Gold, GBP, EUR, and JPY are some of the assets that may be purchased in such a scenario. Indices such as S&P may move 30-40 points, while Wall Street may see a few hundred points move. Typically, any CPI figure before 4.8 or lower is considered a good data point. It is crucial to analyze the CPI figure excluding food and energy. Food and energy prices have rapidly increased in the last two years, making them an important outlier. However, we are starting to see food and energy prices normalize, and they have been coming down steadily over the last three to four months. If the CPI comes out at 5%, and food is at 5.5%, it is not a good number. The ideal situation would be to see continued decreases for six months. If there is a slowdown in one or two months, that is a problem. Currently, the Fed is still raising rates, which can aid in stabilizing prices. CPI inflation and rates are positively correlated.
TVC:GOLD
by ChartStrategist
EUR/USD: 17/05. Good input for sale OANDA:EURUSD I expect EUR to consolidate in the 1.0850/1.0950 range. EUR traded between 1.0855 and 1.0910 before closing slightly lower at 1.0865 (-0.010%). The fundamental tone has softened somewhat and EUR is likely to drop lower today, but any decline could be part of a lower range of 1.0839/1.0895. In other words, a clear break below 1.0845 is unlikely. Next 1-3 weeks: “Our update from Monday (May 15, spot at 1.0855) is still valid. As highlighted, the outlook for EUR remains negative and the level to watch is at 1.0805. On the other hand, a breach of 1.0945 (no change to 'strong resistance') would indicate that the EUR weakness that began mid-week is over. SELL EURUSD zone1.08600 - 1.08800 Stoploss: 1.09100 Take Profit 1: 1.08100 Take Profit 2: 1.07500
Short
by DNA_TradingFX
PPI News Release tomorrow. What is it? The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) MoM release is tomorrow (14:30). In this idea I will talk about what it is and how we can make money of this as traders :) What the # is PPI? The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the price change on the manufacturing side. In contrast to CPI, Consumer Price Index, which measures what consumers pay for their stuff! So, the PPI covers the price changes of the sellers and that is why it is widely considered as one of the most important indicators for inflation. How does PPI influence the dollar? When the PPI rises, this sends a message to the fed that inflation may be taking place so they should raise interest rates to 'fight' this inflation. The interest rates hikes generally lead to higher value of the dollar. Rising PPI = signal of inflation = policy of higher interest rates = more attractive to investors = dollar is more in demand = increase in value Same things goes for the other side: Low PPI = low indicator for inflation = message to fed to ease up with the rate hikes = lower interest rate = Generally bearish for the dollar. So always buy the dollar when PPI rises? NO! You should also take a look at the monetary policy of the counter currencies countries. Because lower interest rates in USA generally DON'T mean a decrease in the dollar value for USD/JPY if the interest rates are even MORE lowered in japan. Conclusion To be honest, the best way to 'make' money in the long term during major news events is to not trade at all. Because of the major volatility spike you can lose money very quickly and there is also have very high risk of slippage on your trades. Trading big news events is like gambling and that's not what we do. Maybe you experience a little bit of FOMO when you see the beautiful big moves that you 'could have gotten into' but it WILL pay off in the long run to avoid trading during major news events. I give daily ideas about market analysis, trading psychology and trading in general. ❤️ If you appreciate my work, please like, comment, follow and send to someone you think should read this. ❤️ If you don't then don't! :) @yorick7878 I wish you all good trading!
by yorick7878
Market News and Events that Affect Forex Prices Forex trading is an exciting and dynamic market that is influenced by a wide range of news and events. In order to make informed trading decisions, it is important to keep up-to-date with market news and events that can affect forex prices. Here are some key factors that can have an impact on the forex market: 1. Economic Indicators: Economic indicators such as GDP, inflation rates, and employment data are closely watched by forex traders as they can provide insights into the strength of a country's economy. Positive economic data can lead to a stronger currency while negative data can lead to a weaker currency. Central Bank Policy : Central banks play a key role in setting interest rates and monetary policy, which can have a significant impact on forex prices. Changes in interest rates or announcements regarding monetary policy can lead to fluctuations in currency values. Political Events: Political events such as elections, trade negotiations, and geopolitical tensions can also impact forex prices. For example, the Brexit vote in the UK had a significant impact on the value of the British pound. Natural Disasters: Natural disasters such as earthquakes, hurricanes, and floods can also affect forex prices. These events can impact the supply and demand of goods and services, which in turn can impact currency values. Market Sentiment : Market sentiment refers to the overall mood of traders and investors towards a particular currency. Positive sentiment can lead to an increase in demand for a currency while negative sentiment can lead to a decrease in demand. It is important to note that not all news and events will have an impact on forex prices and the impact can vary depending on the specific currency pair being traded. It is also important to have a solid understanding of technical analysis tools such as charts and indicators, as well as a strong understanding of risk management, in order to make informed trading decisions. By keeping up-to-date with market news and events and using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis, forex traders can increase their chances of success in this dynamic market.
Education
by glorias3972
Weekly Forecast: XAU/USD could break out of range on NFP?# ****Gold Price Weekly Forecast: XAU/USD could break out of range on NFP? **** Gold has been struggling to make a decisive move following a correction from the $2,000 level. While the technical outlook points to a bullish bias, buyers are likely to remain hesitant in the near term. Market participants are closely watching the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which could trigger the next big action in the XAU/USD pair. Last week, gold price faced bearish pressure and suffered heavy losses on Monday after First Citizens BancShares Inc announced its purchase of all the loans and deposits of SVB. The news led to a positive tone in the markets, causing global bond yields to gain traction and XAU/USD to drop all the way to $1,950. On Tuesday, the Consumer Confidence Index in the US improved slightly, and the one-year consumer inflation expectation of the survey edged higher, but this data failed to provide a boost to the US dollar. Wednesday saw Alibaba Group Holdings' plan to split its business into six units and have them listed publicly, allowing risk flows to dominate markets during the first half of the day. However, in the absence of high-impact macroeconomic data releases, gold price fluctuated in a narrow channel and struggled to make a decisive move in either direction. On Thursday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced a revised fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth down to 2.6%, coupled with a 7,000 increase in the Initial Jobless Claims in the week ending March 25. Despite these disappointing data releases, XAU/USD regained its traction as the US dollar continued to weaken in the risk-positive market atmosphere. On Friday, mixed PMI readings from China made it difficult for XAU/USD to find direction early on, but the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index's decline to 4.6% on a yearly basis in February from 4.7% in January helped XAU/USD hold its ground ahead of the weekend. Next week, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI will be watched closely by market participants, especially the Prices Paid component of the survey, which climbed to 51.3 from 44.5 in January, revealing an increase in input inflation. The market is yet to figure out whether the US Federal Reserve will raise its policy rate one more time by 25 basis points (bps) in May. If the PMI survey points to an acceleration in the manufacturing sector's input inflation, hawkish Fed bets could return and help the US dollar find demand, potentially putting XAU/USD under bearish pressure. ADP's private sector employment report and the ISM Services PMI will be featured in the US economic docket on Wednesday. ADP Employment Change is forecast to decline sharply to 10K in March from 242K in February. A negative print could weigh on the US dollar, causing markets to price in a dismal March jobs report. A noticeable decrease in the Prices Paid sub-index of ISM Services PMI could also hurt the US dollar, and vice versa. Ahead of the weekend, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the labor market data for March, which is forecast to show a decline of 8,000 in Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). Even if the NFP comes in higher than expected, any reading below 50,000 should be seen as a red flag and trigger a leg lower in US yields and the US dollar. On the other hand, an increase of 100K or higher in NFP could weigh on XAU/USD by lifting yields. Market participants will also continue to pay attention to comments from Fed officials. Although policymakers are unlikely to try to steer the markets in a certain direction before seeing the jobs report and March
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ProAekTrader
How to use news and data reports to make transactions profitableFrom central bank interest rate resolutions, non-farm payrolls, PMI indexes, inflation rates and other data reports, to geopolitical developments, and even natural disasters, these are major news that foreign exchange investors cannot ignore.Because the trend of the currency is always guided by these major economic events and news developments, it is accompanied by trading opportunities. Of course, not all news is worth trading, so we must be familiar with how economic events will affect currency market trends.For major transaction news and data reports, we can follow the following three steps: 1. Select news events that will cause price fluctuations Foreign exchange traders tend to pay attention to certain key economic data that have an impact on interest rate speculation. These economic data include: central bank decisions and speeches, gross domestic product (GDP) data, employment data, inflation rate and trade balance. 2. Choose the right currency pair Generally speaking, we will choose currency pairs with high liquidity. There are mainly the following 8 pairs: EUR/USD, USD/¥, AUD/USD, GBP/¥, EUR/CHF, and CHF/¥.The sufficient liquidity of currency pairs is conducive to us to use lower transaction costs to win huge profits through greater volatility. 3. Pay attention to the news release time and forecast results We have to trade based on data expectations, that is, the actual announced results are compared with the predicted values.For example, if the non-farm payrolls report is better than expected, the dollar will generally rise, and EUR/USD may fall. In addition, before the data is released, we need to check the price movement of the short-term chart (5, 10, 15-minute chart), and use the closing price to decide whether to trade the current data report.After the price trend is confirmed, open a position and set a take profit and stop loss. In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
Education
by Short-term-king
USDCAD 3H: 21/02/2023: Short opportunity Daily TA: Well, you can see all the information on the chart. If you have questions feel free to ask. 💥💥💥Important note: At first I should mention that it's not investment advice then as you know, today's CPI for Canada will be published so it's a high-risk trade, and as always we need a low time frame confirmation. Last but not least, if you look at daily TA you can see price can move higher and then fall. So be aware!💥💥💥
Short
by VahidTradingCR
5
USDJPY - Buy USDJPY was on a clear uptrend. Then, a major support level was broken. This level was even visible on the 1D chart, which shows that it's a significant level. Once the level was broken, I quickly entered on a buy once price returns to that level. It was a major level, so I predicted that only a short retest was required. This is because I felt the market needed more time to gather bullish strength to break the level. Once I took the trade, followed by strong fundamental news from US, caused massive bullish momentum and the trade was closed with a 1:2 RR.
Long
by emanabp
Another hawkish RBA hike, but will Jerome Powell turn AUD lower?Summary of the RBA’s February 2023 statement: • The RBA hiked the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.35% • Underlying inflation was above expectations at 6.9% • Strong domestic demand is adding to the inflationary pressures • CPI is expected to decline this year due to global factors and slower growth in domestic demand • Medium-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, and it is important that this remains the case • The labour market remains very tight • Wages growth is expected to continue picking up due to the tight labour market and higher inflation • The board will continue to pay close attention to labour costs and the price-setting behaviour of firms in the period ahead • Further increases in interest rates will be needed over the months ahead The RBA hiked the overnight cash rate by 25bp to 3.35% - its highest level since September 2012 – and warned of further increases in the months ahead. The two key words here are ‘increases’ and ‘months’, as it implies more than one hike over the coming months. And with rates at 3.35% it means the market pricing and consensus among economists for a terminal rate of 3.6% is not correct. Given that the employment situation remains robust, inflation is higher than they expected and ‘strong domestic demand is adding to inflationary pressures’, we have several green lights for a hike in March and perhaps in May. Perhaps we’re closer to the elusive pause they teased us with last year, but I see no immediate threat of one in that statement. And whilst the RBA expect CPI to decline as global factors and growth in domestic demands slows, what is going to happen if they do not slow quickly enough? Yep, more hikes. For now, a March hike seems like a done deal and I live in hope they hint at a pause, but I will not hang my hat on that given the data overall and strong levels of inflation. AUD/USD 1-hour chart: The Aussie bounce around 1% after the rate decision, but it is debatable as to whether it can retain its strength if Jerome Powell delivers a hawkish message overnight. The Fed’s rate remains above the RBA’s, with a higher expected terminal rate. AUD/USD found support around the 50-day EMA and has since spiked higher, but bears may want to seek evidence of weakness around 0.6900 as it houses the monthly pivot point and broken trendline. Of course, should Powell fail to deliver the hawkish message, then it leaves AUD (and other FX majors) more wriggle room to unwind some of their post-NFP losses.
Short
by CityIndex
How the ES has reacted to EIA Petroleum Status ReportsEIA Petroleum Status Reports are considered high-impact news, yet how much do they impact ES futures? In the 30 minutes after it gets reported at 10:30am ET, here's how ES has reacted the last 5 times: Jan 4: 14.75-point range, closing up 0.21% after 30 minutes Dec 28: 11.5-point range, closing up 0.25% after 30 minutes Dec 21: 12-point range, closing up 0.12% after 30 minutes Dec 14: 8.75-point range, closing up 0.20% after 30 minutes Dec 7: 13.75-point range, closing up 0.09% after 30 minutes Plenty of range there to make money... and plenty of range to get whipsawed out for a loss. so be careful. Unless you have a specific strategy to trade the EIA Petroleum Status Report news, or you're in for a longer hold, consider sitting it out.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TradingTruthseeker
#GBPJPY near 4h timeframe resistive area one againlook where price is one more time at an area where rejected clearly twice before plus it's a structural point too ( it use to be support but changed to resistance ) if you look at the left side of the chart. this cluster of resistance add to the importance of the area. But the thing is matter most is not to rush into a trade as we have CPI news today and depends on what the numbers going to be it can cause price to break the resistance to the upside or to reject from. If you want to have more comprehensive idea about what to expect of news are going to be released today and tomorrow I would recommend you to read the idea linked to this article. But in summery, if CPI comes out equal or lower the prediction it would be good JPY and we can expect the downside move from GBPJPY .
Short
by mohemati
impact of two important following news on DXYTwo important factors that been driving Dollar prices in last several month as we all know is Federal Funds Rate and Inflation data like CPI. In this week we have both of them coming out on Tuesday and Wednesday, now we want to see how it can affect the market. Price usually tend to be at important resistive or supportive areas at the time of important news hit the market and as we can see now price is at supporting area and at the Daily low which probably will remain here until the news hit the market so we can expect of low volatility movement on USD and other major crosses, But what will happen when the news releases? As we know CPI balance is curving to downside and shows that inflation is cooling down and as we see the prediction of tomorrow CPI news we can see that the market expect this trend to continue. Now here is the tricky part, if CPI data put out like prediction or lower than the prediction this means that fed has the inflation under control which makes trader to believe that federal reserve would not need to raise prices very aggressively like before and as a result we may see a risk on environment in the market which can lead Dollar prices to come lower, but on the other hand SPX, TLT, EUR,JPY and also commodity currencies like AUD,NZD to take benefit from the situation. But if CPI data comes out higher than expectation then we can argue that federal reserve do not have inflation under control so it needs to continue hiking prices like before and this situation may lead to higher prices for Dollar and lower prices for all the other assets that we covered above. Also if the second scenario take place tomorrow we can expect USYIELD to continue going higher which have negative effect on US treasury bond and very bad effect on SPX index. Put CPI analysis apart the other important news that can shake prices real hard is federal reserve which going to hit the market on Wednesday. On that time we can see that what exactly is in the mind of federal reserve and how they are going to impact the economy. In overall, if they raise rate same or below the expectation its going to be very good for risky assets since it shows that we are getting close to end of rate hiking cycle but if federal reserve going for raising rate higher than expectation then it will have a very good impact on Dollar but bad impact on risky assets.
TVC:DXYEducation
by mohemati
GBP / USD Short Idea Bearish view here. Due to the Political failures and cost of living crisis, i only see one direction for the GBP going into the Inflation Reports on the 19th October . I expect Inflation to rise and continue to place pressure on the Pound further as seen in the past few months. I can't see the price entering any lower than 1.06700 as the buying opportunity and retracement will be too strong, but i expect to see price dropping to one of two levels. - (1.06700 or 1.09560) Previous Political news also has shown that the UK is the only major country to not have recovered from Covid and going into the winter months; accompanied with the Energy crisis and overseas conflicts, the USD simply has a stronger outlook for the next few weeks. - Note to never risk more than 1-3% of your account on any given trade. - Stop loss at 210 Pips to give room for market noise. - Take Profit at 625 Pips or 339. Please form your own research but I hope this can give some advice or fuel for ideas to be generated.
Short
by wozencroftkyle
2