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Cryptocurrency News - Who's accurate and Who's not? - BTCUSDHello Friends in Trading I've been playing with an idea, but it's going to take days to complete. Lots of hours and work will have to go into it, so first I want to determine if there is a demand for my idea. I want to do a thorough analysis of some of the top names that always pop up in the news bar on the side. Often you'll have one article saying " BITCOIN IS GOING UP" and the very next one will be saying "BITCOIN IS GOING DOWN". Which one is more accurate based on past performance and past predictions? This is what I would like to determine. I will do an analysis if I can get 15 and more likes. This will show me that there is a demand, and then it will be worth the time it will take. Please share in the comment section if you have specific sites (mainstream) you would like for me to look at. {and please, don't take this idea, I am claiming it as MINE so don't now go and steal it (coughcoughtoptraders...)} Yours in Crypto, Ev
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by BlockTechEv
7
Tesla in kings, US data and local lockdownsOn December 21 Tesla wil be included in the SP500 index. The decision is rather strange, but, apparently, deliberate (in September, the index committee had already refused to include the company in the index, but now they have decided to do this). It's strange because it creates purely technical difficulties for the index committee - Tesla, with its capitalization near $ 400 billion, creating an imbalance in the index. It's strange because now index funds and ETF funds (with total assets up to $ 11 trillion) will have to buy Tesla shares even if they really don't want to do it. It's strange because Tesla is a classic price bubble that is about to burst and what will happen to the entire index because of this we don't even want to think about (nothing good for sure). In general, it is not clear why SP did this, but they did. Meanwhile, the head of the investment company Hercules Investments, James MacDonald, said he expects the S&P 500 to decline by 20% in the near term. In principle, just the collapse of the Tesla bubble may be enough for this. Yesterday's data on retail sales in the United States was not very encouraging. They rose 0.3% in October (after rising 1.6% in September). It is obvious that the situation will deteriorate further. Since the executive branch in the United States is partially paralyzed due to the results of the elections in the United States (Biden cannot do anything yet, and Trump no longer wants to), one cannot count on a nationwide lockdown. But local authorities are increasingly tightening measures in a desperate attempt to stem the rise in the number of cases. Against the backdrop of such news, the optimism caused by the news from Moderna has somewhat faded. Accordingly, the growth of stock markets stopped, as well as oil prices growth. But it is too early to talk about any kind of reversal. However, we note that the fundamental background for this is more than favorable. US Oil stocks according to API increased by 4+ mln barrels. This is not something gamechanging. But still, additional reason to sell Oil from the current prices.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Trade24Fx
New injections of optimism and the deal of the centuryLike last week, this one started with news from vaccine developers. And if last Monday it was Pfizer with its 90% efficiency, then yesterday Moderna was the generator of optimism. Its vaccine is 94% effective. But at the same time, unlike the Pfizer vaccine, which must be stored at -80 degrees, the product from Modern can be stored in usual home refrigerators. This means that it is easier and more convenient to use it. The data from Japan and China added optimism as well. Japanese GDP in the third quarter grew by 21.4% (forecasts was 18.9%). China reported growth in industrial production and retail sales (even compared with the same period last year). Another reason for the uplifting mood was the news that China and 14 countries of the Asia-Pacific region signed on Sunday the largest trade agreement in the world (covering almost a third of the world's population and global gross domestic product). That is, the markets have a feeling that things are not so bad now, but in the long term everything will be great for sure. We continue to consider this position to be at least premature. Europe in lockdown (full or partial). As a result, for example, the freeway operator Vinci reported on Friday that traffic in Europe dropped 48% in the first full week of November. And with China, everything is far from so simple. In the corporate sector, defaults on debts are growing. Even state-owned companies, which were previously considered practically risk-free, are under threat. As a result, problem loans in the banking sector rose to a record 2.84 trillion yuan ($ 429 billion) as of September 30, according to the Chinese banking regulator. So, our main positions are unchanged: we sell on the stock markets, buy precious metals, sell oil and look for points to buy the dollar.
TVC:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
3
Week in a Glance: Pfizer and the pandemic, Brexit and oilThe event of the past week was Pfizer's announcement that their vaccine is 90% effective. Many took this information as a victory in the fight against the pandemic. As a result, Monday became one of the most active trading days of the year, during which there was a massive exodus from safe-haven assets and an equally massive inflow of capital into risky assets. But then it was reported that CEO Albert Burla sold most of his shares right after the vaccine efficacy news was announced on Monday (with a daily high of around $ 41.99 on Monday, he managed to sell 132,508 shares at $ 41.94 a share). His actions, naturally, raised suspicions that everything is not so clear with the vaccine and Pfizer's prospects for selling it in the amount of 1.3 billion doses (!) in 2021 might be far from reality. Pandemic statistics contributed to a decrease in optimism in financial markets. The total number of cases in the world has reached 54 million, and the daily increase is now 650K +, of which over 180K is given only by the United States. Such statistics for the United States naturally intensifies conversations about the need for a nationwide lockdown in the United States as the only way to bring the situation under control. So, it’s too early to relax and buy risky assets. That is why this week we will be buying gold and silver, selling on stock markets, selling oil. And some words about the oil market. Despite the growth of the asset, associated with expectations that OPEC + in January will not increase production by 2 million b / d, the overall fundamental background remains extremely gloomy. OPEC and IEA monthly reports indicated that the second wave of the pandemic will inevitably hit the demand in the oil market. At the same time, the sharp increase in production in Libya speaks in favor of the fact that oil sales are the only logical trade plan in the current conditions. Formally, the coming week promises to be rather calm, which, however, may change at any moment. In theory, trade negotiations between the UK and the EU should end this week. Besides the pandemic, lockdowns will remain in focus. The earnings season in the US is almost over, but is still in progress.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
USA closes, Europe suffers, IEA revises We have already written several times that the pandemic situation in the United States is becoming less and less controllable every day (160K+ new cases per day already). Currently, there is only one way to stop the worsening of an already dire situation - lockdown. The idea for a nationwide lockdown in the United States was voiced by Dr. Michael Osterholm, President-elect Joe Biden's coronavirus advisor. But while Biden has no authority, these are more intentions than part of the reality. In reality, a wave of local lockdowns and tightening measures in the USA began. For example, in New York, gatherings are limited to 10 people, bars and restaurants must close every evening at 10:00 pm. San Francisco has again banned indoor dining starting next Sunday, suspended high school reopening, and limited gyms and movie theaters to 25 percent of capacity. Note that these are half measures, which means they will not be able to quickly change the situation for the better. At the same time, Europe shows that lockdowns work. For example, in France, the number of new cases since the introduction of the lockdown has almost halved. Thursday was not the best day for the pound. UK GDP data for the third quarter came out slightly worse than experts' expectations (15.5% against expectations of 15.8% growth). In addition, information about another change in the deadline came from the Brexit fields. Let us remind you that this week the parties were supposed to complete negotiations and sign a trade agreement. But in fact, everything is postponed at least to the next week. As expected, growth in the oil market stopped. Following the rather pessimistic OPEC forecast for the oil market, the IEA published even gloomier estimates. The agency now expects demand to fall by 8.8 million bpd in 2020 (versus 8.4 million bpd in last month's report). Separately, the report noted that the vaccine is unlikely to significantly increase oil demand until the second half of 2021. Plus, the weekly data on US oil stocks from the EIA unexpectedly showed a fairly significant increase.
TVC:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
Risky sentiments amid pandemic records, OPEC reportIn the first 10 days of November, 1 million (!) people were infected with COVID-19 in the United States. As a result, the number of patients with coronavirus in US hospitals has exceeded 60,000. It would seem that it’s time for investors to think about a possible second lockdown in the United States after Europe. Instead, they are running out of safe haven assets (US Treasury yields are at their highest levels since spring). Equity markets are correspondingly storming historic highs. And if the last couple of days investors have tried to bypass the shares of high-tech companies, then yesterday it came to them. Recall that after the news from Pfizer, investors decided that the world will soon return to normal, which means that preference should be given to value stocks (which are now relatively undervalued), rather than growth stocks (now significantly overvalued). As a result, at the start of the week, value companies around the world as a whole demonstrated the maximum growth in the entire history of observations relative to growth companies. Russia, following Pfizer, announced a 90% + effectiveness of its vaccine. This statement looked somewhat ridiculous on the information that in the Altai Territory three doctors vaccinated with the Sputnik V vaccine contracted the coronavirus. On the oil market, all attention was focused yesterday on the monthly OPEC report. The cartel has lowered its own forecast for oil demand in 2020 (by 300 thousand barrels per day - to 90.01 million bpd). In general, the rise in oil prices in the past couple of weeks is a reason for oil sales. Today promises to be quite busy in terms of macroeconomic statistics. UK Q3 GDP, Eurozone Industrial Production in September and traditional weekly US jobless claims statistics, as well as official US oil stocks data.
TVC:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
2
EU attacks again, cannabis market and RepublicansAfter the euphoria that reigned in the financial markets related to the news from Pfizer (according to data analysed by Reuters, nearly $2 trillion changing hands on Monday), the markets calmed down somewhat on Tuesday. Both new pandemic records and the statement by Republicans that they support Trump's desire to challenge the election results returned to reality. Markets took this as a hint that the Republicans are unlikely to become much more compliant after the elections, and the Democratic edition of the stimulus bill will not be able to pass in a short time. Weak data from ZEW on business sentiments in the Eurozone and Germany, as well as EU threats to impose new taxes on digital companies, also did not contribute to the growth of optimism. In addition, the European Commission launched an attack on Amazon, accusing the company of "distortion of competition", illegal data collection, misuse and other deadly and not very deadly sins. The change of power in the United States means quite a lot of tectonic and not so much shifts in the financial markets and not only. We have already written that the stocks of cannabis producers may again be in the spotlight, as it was already in the fall of 2017, when Canada legalized cannabis in the country. In the end of 2017 the shares of companies like Canopy Growth, Aurora Cannabis, GW pharmaceuticals have grown exponentially in a matter of months. So over the last month, the first two have already added about 100% to their October prices and, apparently, this may be just the beginning. The US House of Representatives is set to vote in December to legalize the use of cannabis. At the same time, in a number of states, during the latest elections, referendums were also held on the legalization of medical or recreational marijuana. Since the vote was successful, there is reason to expect the opening of one of the largest cannabis markets in the world. And this cannot but lead to an increase in the shares of companies that are world leaders in the production of marijuana: Canopy Growth and Aurora Cannabis.
Short
by Trade24Fx
3
Flash of optimism from Pfizer and oil expectations from OPEC+Markets were greeted Monday in high spirits over Biden's victory in the US Presidential election. But the real excitement began when Pfizer said its experimental vaccine was more than 90% effective in preventing COVID-19. Markets took this almost as a victory in the fight against the pandemic. Accordingly, the safe-haven assets were sold out, while risky assets, on the contrary, were actively bought. The wave of optimism was not stopped by the information that the results were published on a very small sample, if not negligible (a total of 94 cases), nor the fact that the vaccine must be stored at -80 ° C, which can create serious logistical problems. Unfortunately, no one bothered to ask the main question, what does this news change here and now? And the answer is obvious - nothing. Here and now and in the horizon of the coming months, this will in no way solve the problem with the pandemic. But the problem is here and now. It's been a week since the lockdowns were announced in Europe, so what? The number of new cases in France, which has one of the most severe lockdowns, did not decrease, but increased significantly. This means, at best, that the lockdown will be extended. As a result, Goldman Sachs revised Europe's forecast for the fourth quarter from 9.1% growth (!) to a decline of 8.7% (!!!). The United States is literally one step away from a new lockdown. It's very strange that no one thinks about all this. Especially if you remember other recent news. For example, the European Union has raised tariffs on American goods by up to $ 4 billion. Or the updated forecasts from Goldman Sachs, which lowered their forecast for growth in the United States for the first quarter of 2021 by 2 times (!) from 7% to 3.5%. In this regard, we continue selling risky assets, including the US stock market, as well as buying safe haven assets, including the US dollar. The oil market was also optimistic yesterday. The general positive sentiment was superimposed by the information that OPEC + is seriously considering the option to postpone the increase in production, as the renewed pandemic strikes a new blow on demand in the oil market.
DJ:DJIShort
by Trade24Fx
1
Week in a Glance: US elections, central banks, NFP and pandemicThe main event of the past week was the US elections. And they were rather surprising. The Blue wave, widely expected by experts and analysts, has failed. The name of the new President was not announced until Saturday - the candidates were extremely close. But in the end, Biden won. Although Trump has not given up yet and is going to sue. So, we have the worst-case scenario. Especially when you consider that the Democrats have lost a number of seats in the House of Representatives, and the Senate, it seems, will remain under the control of the Republicans. In general, despite the optimism that prevailed in the US stock market all week, we consider it clearly premature. The risks are quite material and very significant. Other events, naturally, faded against the background of the elections, but this did not make them less significant. The pandemic set new records both in the world and in Europe and the United States. And if Europe has already closed, then the United States has so far been focused on the elections. But the steady excess of 100,000 new cases per day makes a return to this question inevitable. This means that the damage to the economy is inevitable. In this light, the revisions towards lowering their forecasts for economic development by the EU have become quite indicative. The Central Banks of Australia, England and the USA met during the week. And if the latter have not yet begun to change the parameters of monetary policy, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered the rate and for the first time introduced a quantitative easing program, and the Bank of England increased QE size in UK. That is, the central banks have already begun to act, which only confirms how serious the situation is. The statistics on the US labor market came out better than forecasted, the markets ignored it, firstly, there was no time for this due to the elections, and secondly, in the light of the future lockdown, it is still not representative, since all past trends will be instantly crossed out. Based on the mentioned above, we expect that the current week will be sobering for the markets, that is, stock indices will go down where they belong, oil quotes will go down, and the dollar will strengthen.
DJ:DJIShort
by Trade24Fx
2
Worst-case scenario, Bank of England, Fed and NFP aheadThe events surrounding the US elections are developing according to the worst-case scenario. And it is very strange to see a flash of optimism in the financial markets. Biden is winning (looks like), but Trump has already said he will challenge the election results. Given that the country is essentially divided into two poles, the discontent of Trump supporters may well lead to a full-fledged crisis in the country. It is enough to recall the massive protests within the BLM movement this year to understand one simple thing: pandemic, lockdown and economic crisis released all the negativity that had been accumulating in people for years. So, news like this: "About 200 Trump supporters, some of whom were armed with rifles, gathered on Wednesday near a polling station in Phoenix, Arizona" should not be taken as part of a paranoid conspiracy theory. Today or tomorrow, this may become a new reality, in which all these BLM movements and looting associated with it seem like child's play (about 70 million people voted for Trump). Taking into account all of the mentioned above, we believe that buying in the US stock market and actively selling the dollar, the markets are very mistaken and the situation can turn around literally at any time. Speaking of other events of the day yesterday, we note the lack of progress in negotiations on Brexit, as well as the decision of the Bank of England to increase the volume of purchases of assets by 150 billion pounds (195 billion dollars) to 895 billion pounds. The Fed decided not to change anything yet. They are waiting for the outcome of the elections, as well as the development of a pandemic situation. According to the autumn forecast from EU, the economy of the Eurozone in 2021 will grow by only 4.2% instead of the previous estimate of 6.1%. The data on jobless claims in the United States came out on the whole quite good, but there is not much to be happy about either. However, today the official statistics on the US labor market will be published, which traditionally arouses heightened interest in financial markets.
Short
by Trade24Fx
Blue Wave Failure, Ma's Challenge, and ADP DataThe results of the US elections, in fact, multiplied by zero all the forecasts and poll results, according to which the "blue wave" was supposed to cover the country. In real life, we have essentially a fiasco of the Democrats. According to some analysts, the credit for this is the record data on US GDP for the third quarter and a comb of macroeconomic statistics for the third quarter. This explanation, in our opinion, is more than doubtful, because the GDP figures for the third quarter were published too late to radically change the balance of power in the election race. The most obvious explanation for what is happening is the theory of the silent voter. That is, those who vote for the Democrats openly and actively talk about it (which creates the illusion of the total superiority of their party); Trump voters prefer to keep quiet, but at the same time they go to polling stations and vote for their leader. What do the current results mean for the financial markets? To begin with, it's uncertainty. Trump has already announced that he will legally challenge the election results at least in Wisconsin. This means that the outcome of the elections will not be obvious for quite a long time. Asa result, stock markets might change their current upward direction, the same is true for the commodity markets and other risky assets. Dollar has chances for recovery. The last days have been very difficult for one of the richest people in China and the world, Jack Ma. The IPO of his brainchild Ant was postponed, and Alibaba shares in just one day (Tuesday) fell more than 8%. The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission plans to discourage lenders from using the Ant platform, which has recently become a full-fledged replacement for small bank lending. In terms of macroeconomic statistics, yesterday is interesting primarily with data on employment in the US from the ADP. The figures came out much worse than forecasts, which, against the backdrop of fears of the second wave of the economic crisis, cannot but cause heightened fears. As a reminder, this Friday official statistics on the US labor market will be published. The sharp increase in US oil inventories very well coincided with the local weakness of the dollar and the general increase in optimism in the financial markets, provoking a significant increase in oil quotes this week. Well, this is a great opportunity to sell an asset at a higher price. Today promises to be very eventful. In addition to the topic of the US elections, participants in financial markets will closely follow the decisions and comments of the Bank of England, as well as the Fed. Well, traditionally, in recent months, data on jobless claims in the United States will be an object of increased interest.
TVC:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
US elections: current results, expectations and implicationsThe main event of yesterday for the US and financial markets in general were the US elections: a new President of the United States, 35 Senators, and 435 Congressmen. The favorites in the race were the Democrats, who were expected to take control of not only the White House, but the entire Congress. Currently Biden leads, but results are not as impressive as they should be. What does this mean for certain assets and markets in general? The Russian ruble may suffer even more, as new sanctions from the United States are likely and a general deterioration in the already rather strained relations. By contrast, cannabis stocks could skyrocket on expectations of U.S. legalization. So companies like Canopy Growth or Aurora Cannabis could see double digit growth in the foreseeable future. As for the US stock market as a whole, the situation is twofold. On the one hand, Biden promised to raise corporate tax, which will hit the financial results of US companies and is a problem for the US stock market. On the other hand, the question of stimulus will re-emerge. The Democrats advocated their most extreme forms. So the injection of a positive is not excluded, but a lot will depend on what position the Democrats will take when they will be responsible for a huge hole in the budget. The Reserve Bank of Australia yesterday, as expected, cut the rate from 0.25% to 0.1%. It is possible that this will be the first step in a series of monetary policy easing by other central banks. We remind that on Thursday the Bank of England and the Fed will announce their decisions. From the point of macroeconomic statistics Wednesday will be interesting first of all by the ADP data. Markit PMI indices from the Eurozone and the USA will be objects of interest as well.
Short
by Trade24Fx
2
Blue Wave, Lockdowns, Israel and Libya Yesterday can be called the calm before the storm. At the very least, there were no particular reasons for the recovery that were observed across the entire spectrum of financial markets. Europe is closing more and more. Austria, Spain, Italy, Greece, Belgium and other countries have already joined France, Great Britain, Germany, Ireland or are at the stage of accession. The obvious candidate for joining this list is the United States, which last week reached a new all-time high of 100K new cases per day (Anthony Fauci's prophecy came true). Looking at all this, we would like to discuss the case of Israel, which introduced the lockdown on September 25th. No one understood why Israel went to the second murder of the economy. But the fact is that if at the time of the lockdown start the number of new cases per day exceeded 10K, then just in a month it dropped to 500 cases per day, that is, 20 (!) times less. So, Israel is a clear illustration of how everyone should have acted a month ago, and also why further lockdowns are inevitable. Today, despite all the optimism of vaccine manufacturers, lockdowns are the only way to bring the pandemic under control. We have written about the economic consequences of lockdowns more than once. Let's just note that yesterday's growth in oil prices is a reason for buying and nothing more. Especially considering the latest news from Libya. In just 3 weeks, the country was able to increase production from 100K b / d to 800K b / d and is not going to stop there for now. As for today, its main event, without a doubt, is the US elections. Judging by the polls, the analysis of bookmaker bets and the modeling results, the so-called "blue wave" is coming, that is, the Democrats have every chance to take control of not only the White House and the House of Representatives, but even the Senate. And this means tectonic shifts in everything. So, “2020” is unlikely to stop in the foreseeable future.
TVC:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
Week in a Glance: European lockdowns, US GDP and earnings seasonThe past week turned out to be extremely eventful with very important fundamental events. Its main result was a radical change in market sentiments. Neither record GDP growth rates in the US and the Eurozone, nor excellent reporting by US corporations could change the negative mood. We will talk about this and much more in today's review. After it became finally clear at the start of the week that there would be no new stimulus before the elections in the United States, and the second wave of the pandemic totally covers Europe and the United States, market sentiments changed radically. The massive exodus from risky assets triggered a sell-off in the stock and commodity markets. In the foreign exchange market, the dollar was restoring its previously lost positions. An additional injection of negativity was given by France and Germany, which announced new lockdowns. During this weekend UK and Ausrtia joined them. And if Germany is still talking about a partial restrictions (restaurants, bars, cinemas, theaters and some other similar objects are closed), then France is breaking bad, introducing measures similar to those provided in the spring. The French Ministry of Finance estimates that it will cost the country a 15% drop in economic activity. Negative sentiments could not break either the record figures for GDP growth in the US (+ 33.1%) and the Eurozone (+ 12.7%), or excellent reporting from leading US corporations: Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook, Apple and many others. The commodity markets were also under pressure. In particular, the oil market, for which last week was remembered for a sharp increase in oil stocks in the United States, the announcement of an increase in Libya's production to 1 million barrels per day and a ripening split in OPEC + (Iraq, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Kuwait do not want to maintain production restrictions in 7.7 million b / d in 2021). The central banks of Europe, Japan and Canada did not try to turn the tide and left the parameters of monetary policies unchanged. The ECB, for example, decided to take a break until December, when, apparently, a decision will be made on further easing of monetary policy. The coming week is not going to be easy. Everything will begin with the elections in the United States (Presidential and Parliamentary), will continue with the announcement of the results of the meetings of the FRS and the Bank of England, and will end with statistics on the US labor market. Perhaps these events will be able to reverse the current trends and sentiments, but for now, other things being equal, we continue to sell on the US stock market, as well as on the commodity markets. In the foreign exchange market, we give preference to buying the dollar.
DJ:DJIShort
by Trade24Fx
1
Recovery day is over and uncertainty lies aheadThursday was a recovery day after Wednesday's sales. The reasons for the pause were the peak of the earnings season in the US, as well as the US GDP data. US GDP growth in the third quarter exceeded the average expectations of analysts and amounted to a record 33.1%. However, this figure should not be taken as a sign of the end of the problems in the US and world economies. US GDP is still in the red for the year. Given how the situation with the pandemic is developing, there is practically no chance that the US economy will end 2020 in positive territory. But China will most likely end the year in plus. But even this victory is very questionable. Because the rate of growth that is expected will be the lowest for China over the last 40 years. In general, everything is bad everywhere. And the earnings of Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, as well as Facebook, which has traditionally exceeded analysts' expectations, should not be taken as a change from recession to growth. The third quarter and the growth of the economy in it are not the merit of the economy as such, but of money injections from the US Government (CARES act) and the US Federal Reserve. The problem is that since August the US has been living without artificial feeding. The question of stimulus is closed before the elections, and what will happen after them is still unknown. The ECB, as expected, did not change the vector and parameters of monetary policy in the Eurozone yesterday. In fact, the decision was postponed to December - expansion of the quantitative easing program or even more radical measures to support the economy are expected. So the euro continues to be under pressure from pandemic news and information about new restrictions. However, today the euro may receive support from the data on the Eurozone GDP. After yesterday's US data, there is every expectation of exceeding forecasts. But then again, today's data will change little in general. The next month or two (at best), the European economy will suffer heavy losses.
DJ:DJIShort
by Trade24Fx
Acceptance stage, US GDP and ECB meetingJudging by what happened in the financial markets yesterday, the stage of acceptance is finally coming. All those fairly logical and obvious things that we have mentioned over the past weeks and which have been so stubbornly ignored by financial markets are beginning to be realized in prices. Rise of the Japanese yen, a drop in US Treasury yields, an increase in the Fear Index, a fall in stock markets, a selloff in commodity markets - literally no matter what metric you look at, it becomes clear that the markets no longer have the strength to ignore the obvious. The pandemic is gaining momentum, countries are closing with all that it implies. The funny thing is that all this had already happened this spring. It's amazing how short memory markets are. The last hope for buyers of risky assets is today's data on US GDP. The numbers promise to be the best ever recorded, which in theory could inspire optimists. We remain in the camp of realists who know how to calculate 2 + 2 and understand that after falling by 31%, an increase of 31% will not return the indicator to the starting point. Another hope, perhaps, is the earnings season. Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and Facebook are reporting today. These companies generally benefit from the pandemic rather than lose, their financial performance can help maintain the illusion of a bright present and an optimistic future. However, it is more than wrong to take their results at face value, that is, in the context of the market as a whole. Another important event of today will be the announcement of the ECB meeting results. The most likely outcome will be concerns about the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic, as well as guidance on further actions in December. In any case, the ECB is unlikely to bring support for the euro.
DJ:DJIShort
by Trade24Fx
3
Peak of the earnings season is close and million bpd from LibyaThe earnings season in the US is approaching its peak (it will happen on Thursday). But it is already clear that it will not be a super-breakthrough, as many believed on the eve of its launch. Yes, analysts' expectations were again greatly underestimated, as a result the companies demonstrate results better than forecasts. But better than forecasts does not mean that the data itself is positive. It is much more correct to use the same period of the last year as a basis for comparison. This will give a more or less real idea of what is happening with the company, taking into account the seasonality factor typical for a number of businesses. For example, BP's profit in the third quarter increased by 100%+ compared to the second quarter. Which without a doubt looks very impressive. But there is one "but". The current $ 100 million in profit compared to $ 2.3 billion in Q3 2019 is not 100% + growth, but a 95% + drop. So it turns out there is nothing to be happy about. But let’s get back to earnigns season. Caterpillar's revenue fell by almost a quarter, while profits fell more than 50%. Restaurant Brands International (Burger King owner) revenues have declined, so have profits. Not even Pfizer was pleased, with Q3 2020 revenues of $ 12.1 billion, down $ 549 million, or 4%, from the previous year's quarter. In general, such earnings cannot be called breakthrough. This means that sales on the US stock market do not lose their relevance. Libya has been the main newsmaker on the oil market for the last 2-3 weeks. During this period, the country has increased production from 100K b / d to 500K b / d (that is, production increased by 5 times). But this seemed not enough to Libya, and just a few days ago the National Oil Company announced that it plans to increase production to 1 million b / d within a month. Considering that hopes for an increase in demand in the current pandemic conditions are fading, a sharp increase in production by Libya is a very powerful bearish signal for the oil market. So keep on selling oil. In terms of news, the present day is interesting because of the announcement of the results of the Bank of Canada meeting. The rate will clearly not be changed and the maximum that can be expected is concerned comments about the uncertainty associated with the current pandemic situation.
TVC:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
SAP failure, new lockdowns and the end of the stimulusThe biggest week of the Q3 earnings season started with a very minor chord. SAP lost about $ 30 billion (!) of capitalization after the publication of quarterly reports and the fall of shares by 17%. The German software maker (also one of the largest technology companies in Europe) said it is going to reverse its business to the cloud technilogies. This will inevitably hit the financial results of the company for the foreseeable future, but it is a sacrifice that must be made in order to ensure survival in the future (according to the head of the company Christian Klein). Well, the markets didn't like the idea of making sacrifices here and now. In general, the news is very symptomatic and indicative, because this week in the USA almost all FAANG companies will report. After the second wave of the pandemic, a second wave of lockdowns starts in Europe. Following Ireland and the Czech Republic, the ranks of countries with maximum restrictive measures were replenished with Spain (a state of emergency with a curfew was introduced almost throughout the country). Next in line are Italy (they have already introduced the closure of bars and restaurants at 18:00 across the country) and France (the night curfew has been extended, but more stringent measures are not far off). The question of stimulus in the US is formally closed until the elections. Simply because the Senate ended its session yesterday and the senators left Washington. Yes, hypothetically there is the possibility of an urgent recall within 24 hours. But in fact, we have what we have. More precisely, what we don’t have. We don’t have an accepted stimulus package. Given the current pandemic situation in the United States (new all-time highs in the number of new cases were recorded over the weekend) and the obvious consequences of this for the economy, the failure of stimulus is a direct signal for selling in the US stock market. In general, the pandemic ring is shrinking at the neck of the world economy, which means that you can more actively sell in the commodity markets. One can start with oil and palladium, and continue with soybeans and corn.
DJ:DJIShort
by Trade24Fx
4
Week in a Glance: pandemic, no stimulus, but Britain is backThe past week was marked by the pandemic reaching a fundamentally new level. The situation in Europe is many times worse than in the spring, and what is most regrettable is that every day everything is only getting worse. The United States seems to be entering the third wave, and the world as a whole records 400K new cases per day. The announcement of lockdowns by Ireland, Wales and the Czech Republic was quite expected. In addition, some regions of the UK have moved to the maximum level of restrictions. And these are just the first signs. The situation will clearly continue to deteriorate for the foreseeable future. The news that remdesevir has been approved as a cure for coronavirus in the United States do not change anything, just because the effectiveness of the drug is more than questionable. The only thing remdesevir is good for, judging by the research results, is to speed up the healing process somewhat. The start of Pfizer vaccine production before the end of the third phase of testing is encouraging news, but again, it will not solve the problem either here and now or in the coming months. And against the backdrop of all this negativity, Democrats and Republicans in the United States have not been able to agree on a stimulus package for the economy. As expected, everything is postponed until the elections. By the way, about the elections. The debate last week failed to help Trump bridge even part of the gap. A week before the vote, his chances look just as elusive and slim. In general, the US stock market is in danger, as are the commodity markets. So this week we will continue to sell on the US stock market as well as in the oil market. Sales of palladium and a number of grains such as soybeans and corn also look promising. Perhaps the only positive news last week was the return of Great Britain to the negotiating table. But so far, this has not led to the emergence of a trade agreement. So, there is nothing to be happy at. The coming week should finally bury the chances of stimulus in the US before the elections. Breakthrough on Brexit is possible, but is unlikely. In addition, data on US and Eurozone GDP for the third quarter will be published. Considering that analysts' forecasts promise the maximum quarterly growth of indicators for the entire history, this is almost the only hope of buyers in the US stock market. Although no, there is one more - the earnigns season in the United States. This week, the largest corporations in the world are reporting, including almost all of FAANG, so this week will definitely not be bored.
DJ:DJIShort
by Trade24Fx
4
Nobody cares about data, and pauses drag onYesterday's data on jobless claims in the US clearly showed that the markets are now interested in nothing but stimulus in the US. The jobless data came out, if not excellent, then certainly good. At least in terms of tendency. The number of individuals who are currently receiving unemployment benefits fell by a million during the week, and initial ones decreased by more than 50K, dropping below 800K. This is certainly the reason for the growth of the US stock market. But no. The data was ignored completely. The reason for this behavior is that now everything is lost against the background of the global focus - the fate of the stimulus package in the United States. Everyone is tired of this topic, but Democrats, the White House and Republicans continue to pull rubber. The formal reason is the search for a compromise. Real - no one needs an agreement right now on the eve of the elections, because stimulus will give political dividends to the side that shouts first that they won. Given that initially the initiative came from the Democrats, it is clear that they will ascribe to themselves the laurels of the savior of the US economy. The Republicans, who, judging by the polls, are already losing on all fronts, starting from the presidency, ending with the House of Representatives and the Senate, are not interested in this. Especially when you consider that their only chance is the Senate. In general, we continue to bet on the fact that there will be no stimulus before the elections, which means that the US stock market will remain under permanent downward pressure. Moreover, the earnings season cannot yet be called super-successful. The airlines have shown that the depression in the air transportation market is still deep and the companies are by and large on the verge of bankruptcy. Even Coca-Cola had to admit that the closure of cinemas and other entertainment establishments had a negative impact on their financial results. There is also no clarity on the Brexit fronts. Although the sides returned to the negotiating table, there was no breakthrough after that. And it is hardly worth expecting it in the next few days. So, the growth of the pound can be used to sell it. However, the decline will be a reason for buying. Naturally, subject to the status quo in the negotiation process.
DJ:DJIShort
by Trade24Fx
Dead deadlines: Britain Returns, Trump Blames, Oil fallsThe main fun of recent times among the main newsmakers is to outline deadlines and break them. For example, Johnson said that if there is no agreement before the EU summit, the UK will leave the negotiation process. But the EU and the UK continue to negotiate. For example, yesterday's growth in the pound is a direct result of the UK's return to the negotiating table. Apparently, the British did outlast the EU. At least if you believe Barné's statement that the EU will change its approach to negotiations and begin work on a detailed text of the agreement. It's not just the UK that enjoys setting deadlines and breaking them. Democrats in the United States, represented by Pelosi, promised on Tuesday either to end the negotiation process or to conclude an agreement. There is no agreement, but the negotiation process continues. As a result, the markets still hope for something. And after all, the Republicans from the Senate have declared that they will not vote for the option of the deal from the Democrats (at least until the elections), but hope dies last. However, you cannot trust anyone: neither Democrats nor Republicans. Especially after yesterday's demarche by Trump, who literally the day before called on everyone to get together and reach an agreement, and now he himself is destroying all agreements (meaning his tweet, in which he accused the Democrats of unwillingness to help the US economy). So, all that remains is to wait, since the wait will not be long. The fate of the dollar and the stock market directly depends on the outcome of the negotiations. Their failure is the reason for the growth of the dollar and sales in the US stock market. Conversely, success in negotiations will inject positive buyers in the stock market and trigger a new round of dollar sell-offs. The oil market finally got off the ground and showed a significant decline. We have already outlined the reasons more than once in our previous reviews. This once again underlines the fact that with our forecasts we are at least one step ahead of the markets, which are rather slow to react, but still react. The rest of the news was traditionally lost against the background of these mega newsmakers. Today, it is also interesting to follow the data on jobless claims in the US, as well as the continuation of the earnigns season.
Short
by Trade24Fx
2
Sitmulus (again), new lockdowns and oil pricesThe deadline for agreeing on a large stimulus package for the US economy expired yesterday. Republicans and Democrats have not been able to agree (as expected). But at the same time, they continued to radiate optimism and assure that there will be a deal. Trump also added positively, saying that he wants a package larger in size than the Democrats are proposing. Let us remind you that this is the same person who ordered to withdraw from negotiations a couple of weeks ago, because the Democrats are asking too much. In general, schizophrenia as it is. Our trading positions are based on facts, but in fact there are no stimulus yet, so we continue to sell on the US stock market. Especially when you consider that the global pandemic continues to gain momentum, and Europe is already moving to new full-fledged lockdowns. In particular, Ireland and Wales broke down first and closed their economies. For example, Ireland closed the economy for 6 weeks. Taking into account that in Germany the number of new cases continues to update records, and France, Great Britain and other European countries have been doing this for several weeks, it is obvious that Ireland and Wales can become only the first swallows. In this light, sell in the oil market are getting more and more relevant. During the spring we already went through what do the lockdowns mean for the global oil demand. And if at that time the losses in demand were partially compensated by the countries that bought oil for future use due to ultra-low prices, now this support should not be expected (the prices are not the same, and the storage facilities are full). So, absolutely everything points in favor of an imminent drop in oil prices. The earnings season in the US continues. So far, it can hardly be called a breakthrough in terms of financial results. And the tactic of selling before publishing reports generally works much better than buying.
DJ:DJIShort
by Trade24Fx
5