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Newzealand

RBNZ & RBABy Andria Pichidi - February 13, 2019 RBNZ held the official cash rate at 1.75%, matching widespread expectations. RBNZ reiterated its pledge to keep the rate at the current level through 2019 and 2020. "The direction of our next OCR move could be up or down", they repeated. The statement for keeping rates low, for longer than what has been stated so far, along with the statement that OCR could move either way, came in contrast with the highly dovish stance that markets anticipated. This explains Kiwi's spike, with NZDUSD jumping to 0.6851 from 0.6730 ahead of the announcement and during the conference session. RBNZ seems to be following a similar policy path to the RBA. Last week, RBA announced steady rates  at 1.50%, whilst its statement was consistent with no change in the current rate setting through 2019. Overall, the RBA maintained its view that inflation will eventually pick up, although it will take a bit longer than anticipated. Given the Fed's dovish shift, the risk was for the RBA to take a decidedly dovish turn, which Lowe and company did not. Despite the similarity between RBNZ and RBA, New Zealand continues to present an overall fair to middling economy with prospects of any kind of policy changes, as the labour market strengthens and inflation is nearly at the mid of the 1-3% target. This comes in contrast to the Australian economy, which looks erratic given sharp property price declines, despite the "strong" labour market. Furthermore, Aussie's future performance depends greatly on how the Chinese economy evolves, given the strong symbiotic link the Australian economy has with China's. Markets remain in a cautious state due to the current US-China trade talks, which presents binary risk for the Aussie given China's outsized demand for Australian exports. AUD has been trending lower over most of the last year, having declined about 12-13% over this period, largely as a consequence of the eruption of the US-China trade war. On the other hand, Kiwi's future performance is not highly linked to China since the NZ economy is not as exposed to a Chinese slowdown as Australia. Consequently, despite the common policy stance between New Zealand and Australia, all the above arguments suggest that NZD is likely to remain stable in comparison to AUD, something that could give AUDNZD a downleg until it gradually breaches a possible parity. Levels to be watched, starting from immediate to long term Support levels are : 1.0395, 1.0370, 1.0320, 1.0235. Resistances come at 1.055, 1.0667 and 1.0712. Come join us today at HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Short
by HotForex
Is EURNZD ready for a short?Watching EURNZD I still believe we got some more room to the downside since we’ve rejected from the 50 fib on the weekly TF at 1.7050 . Last week we closed as a bullish engulfing which could lead to bullish interest but we havent closed above any declining MA on the weekly yet, currently testing the EMA as resistance. On the daily TF we are now breaking out the downside of a hourly consolidation zone. Potentially closing as 3 pin bar pattern after today’s close. We’ve been in a bearish trend since 1 January after testing the key level support 1.7050 . From the daily declining trendline we are have rejected the 78.60 fib with last week’s close. If we now can push back below the monthly resistance of 1.6700 my bearish vision will be validated for me, targeting the next daily supports of 1.6600 and 1.6450 close to the next weekly support and first fib D extension. Long term take profit zone would be around 1.6455 - 1.6350 . If we take out last weeks highs we’ll have to come back to the charts, upside target could come around 1.6900 if we retest 1.6700 as support.
Education
by Newplanettrading
NZDUSD LongBuy idea for NZDUSD. Sorry for posting so late I was caught up. We see a beautiful retrace (which we also caught) after a massive push up. Retraced to the 50% Fibonacci level and made a strong level of support with substantial rejection. After the initial "tap" of the 50%, we see a new high created, followed by a higher low, and then a break of structure. It then goes bearish again and retraces back to the 50% to give us a very clean "double bottom" pattern followed by a strong M15 bullish engulfing. This was our entry.
Long
by jaketradess
NZDUSD Short. Catching the Retrace.My first trade idea on here! Welcome. NZDUSD showed HH's and HL's throughout the last couple of weeks. Each push up was followed by a retrace of at least 30-50 pips. Watched the H1 and M30 create a double top at a major level of resistance on the D1 and H4. Waited for a Bearish engulfing on the higher timeframe (H1) and a Break of Structure on the lower (M5-M15) to confirm the beginning of a retrace. Sold after the H1 bearish engulfing, placed fibs based off of the H4 chart from 0.68292 to 0.69234 as we will be using major levels as Take Profits. I know I am posting this a bit late but I do believe it has more room to drop! Much love
Short
by jaketradess
Nzd/Usd Down or Up ? If you know what's going on , decide Hey Traders , I see H&S on H4 , Also i dont believe so much in patterns thats why we wait the confirmation . If candle close below 0.68375 its signal that the trend may reversal . On daily we see that the price fake out on the trend SMA 200 . If the price close above this level we may enter on bullish bias . We are waiting the price action to provide us the bias for the week ahead. If the confirmation comes out i will SHORT nzd/usd for the targets that i mention on the chart. Trade with care. Thanks for the reading . Feedback its important. Have a profitable week.
by UnknownUnicorn3549910
NZDUSD - SUPPLY & DEMAND ZONE ANALYSISHi traders. Whenever you are looking at a technical level, always ask yourself the following: - Am I buying at a potential bargain/wholesale/discount price? (supply or demand zones) - Why is there more likely to be more supply/demand orders at that area? (new traders entering/traders taking profit) - What are the underlying fundamental/sentiment drivers that should push price in my favour? (interest rates, business cycle, risk on/risk off) If all 3 are in your favour, take the trade, manage your risk and go for more than you've risked. Always remember this trade is only 1 trade in the next thousand you're going to take. Process over outcome!
Education
by leonrowe
NZD/USD Short - Bearish divergenceNZD/USD SELL, Sentimental: The support zone that I was following for higher-low support came into play early this week. Bulls came in and have remained in control ever since. Buying at this point does not seem prudent as the pair is now at fresh five-month-highs, and a pullback can be in order for bullish strategies. A prior target level around .6819 could be helpful for such an approach. This can be connected down to the swing-low around .6795 to create a support zone to follow. Technicals: Bearish divergence on the 4H time frame you can see that NZD/USD allready had some bearish divergence inbetween 22 october till the 26 of october. ( 90 pip swing trade) Fundamentals: Kiwi News forecasting some bearish econimic numbers. Dollar stronger than New zeeland but not strong enough.
Short
by DikotoMandengue
NZDJPY LONG OPPORTUNITYNZDJPY has found support at the key weekly level of 72.40. If you take a look at the weekly chart you can see the long term trendline resistance above. Looking at the 4hr timeframe we can see the market has bounced and could be setting up for as an inverse head and shoulders pattern which could show upside to come. Wait for the market to create a new higher low and form the right shoulder around the minor support of 72.80 before looking for the long.
Long
by peterthinkhuge
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