Get started

Newzealand

NZX 50 INDEX BULL VS BEAR VIEWSHello, Very interesting developments right now in the NZX - it only recently seems to have recovered from the 2008 economic shock... and then this happens. Wave A was clearly defined and there are 5 sub-waves that are valid and meet all extensions / dimensions. Then things get a little complicated, Wave B seems to have taken the form of an expanding symmetrical triangle (its not a wedge, expanding or otherwise, as the upward waves seem to have 5 sub-waves - as opposed to a 3, 3, 3, 3, 3 count). Scenario 1: BEARISH. I don't see many symmetrical expanding triangles in the B position. If it is a B wave then there should be a 5 wave down-move that follows this present swing high to form wave C. This would mean a 16 to 20+% drop. If it drops below the red line, which marks my wave 1 top (the first and only plausible wave 1 top) and definitely discounts the possibility that wave 5 is yet to come (it must have already happened) - and to expect further correction. Scenario 2: BULLISH. 2a, This may be a little unorthodox. It may be that wave B happened and there is excess buying pressure that has flattened the 5 wave C move. This would result in quite a powerful upwards move shortly (no targets at this stage). 2b. Wave C is truncated and fails to break below the red line due to strong buying pressure / support. This would mean that wave 5 up into or over $160 is still in play. I tend to se more of a bearish view unfortunately. I for one will be interested to see how things play out - so many of the world's sharemarkets seem to be in a corrective phase. This is not a professional publication - just a guy in his free time. Happy trading, protect yourself and thanks for viewing my post. You may not believe in Elliot Wave, but luckli belief isn't required (although possibly a more skilled technician than myself) so let's see how it all plays out.
NShort
by flyinkiwi10
NZDUSDThe New Zealand Dollar saw some uncertainty lift Monday (March 26) with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s formal adoption of a duel monetary-policy mandate. On government instruction the central bank will now have to consider not only its old inflation target when setting interest rates, but also the “maximum, sustainable” level of employment. This addition was proposed by the incoming government which was formed last year following considerable coalition horse trading when September’s election produced a hung parliament. Reports in the interim suggested that the RBNZ might have liked Auckland to stop short of making the mandate official, but the government has always held firm and said that whoever became the new RBNZ government would have to accept it. Well, now Adrian Orr is installed as that governor and has indeed accepted it. What this may mean is that interest rates remain lower than they might otherwise have done as the second part of the mandate inclines the RBNZ to wait before raising interest rates to secure the first part. With NZ interest rates already at record lows, inflation docile and import levels below expectations, the dual mandate is likely to weigh on NZD/USD. The pair is already looking a little week on its daily technical charts, having been in a steady, well respected downtrend since February.
Long
by FxGalaxyPremium
GBPNZD continuation pattern?I see GBPNZD to have made the 5 wave elliott structure. It appears to be making an ABCDE flag pattern (correct me if I am wrong or you see different). I am not fully convinced that the E wave has finished and it may continue down for a short period of time to create a 'throw-over' before resuming the upwards trend. I would wait for consolidation just below/just above the top trendline for the flag to confirm the trend is resuming. The arrow finishes at the 23.6% extension and it could continue well past there. Any advice or feeback is appreciated. Thanks.
Long
by EamesAnalysis
EURNZDAs idle cash looks to find a strong and secure yield, it is no wonder that the New Zealand Dollar has benefited from the current Euro-Zone crisis. Pairs such as the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar are often viewed as a proxy for Chinese growth and thus have performed well against the Euro in recent years. Although Chinese growth may become a cause for concern as the nation shifts away from export led growth, weakness in the Euro-Zone may cap any significant reversal.
Short
by FxGalaxyPremium