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EURNZD tanks to 4-month lowBy Andria Pichidi - November 15, 2018 The Kiwi is doing extremely good the past month, and more precisely after the inflation release on October 16, above expectations at 0.9% in Q3 after the 0.4% q/q rise in Q2. Recently the employment gain on November 7, was well in excess of projections, while the drop in the jobless rate was contrary to projections for a tick higher, supported New Zealand Dollar further, especially due to the global uncertainty, in the political,/geopolitical or even trade front. Today meanwhile, the backdrop of mostly firmer stock markets in Asia, and a rise in US Equity index futures, were also a bullish lead for the relatively higher beta antipodean currency. Outperforming the Euro, at a time in which the Europe remains fraught with risks, as the brinkmanship between Italy and the EU in terms of the budget continues to play out, Brexit uncertainty remains and there are signs of flagging economic growth momentum in the Eurozone. EURNZD continue its strong way down and broke today 4-month low at 1.6567 . This breakout below the 1.6630 Support level, was a key move in the long term, as it represents the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement since 2017 low but also strong 6-month Support between November 2017- April 2014, before the rebound of the pair up to 1.7900 area. Therefore, as the pair moves for the 3rd consecutive week strongly to the downside, ready to complete 3 black weekly craws, simply adds to the constant deterioration in the outlook. Taking into consideration the constant declines of the price but also on momentum indicators, the pair remains strongly to the bearish outlook, without nearterm corrections signs yet. In the weekly basis, the RSI is at 35 looking to the downside, following a smooth negative slope since Octiber. MACD lines are decreasing to the downside below signal line, confirming the increase of negative bias. In the daily chart, RSI looks oversold. However, the bearish crossover of 20-day SMA to 200-day SMA, and as the MACD keeps extending to the downside, suggest that bears have the ultimate control. The break of 4-month low, opened today the doors for the 1.6235-1.6360 area , set at the latest swing lower ( November 2017) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Further gains could then target the 61.8% Fib. level at 1.5830. However, as the pair remains in a sharp bearish price action, a clear reversal to the upside could only be confirmed with a move above the confluence of 50-week SMA, 20-day SMA and 23.6% Fib. level at 1.7100- 1.7170 area . This could open the doors for the continuation of the uptrend again. As mentioned, in a wider picture, the pair remains in a bearish trend, while it confirmed 5 Elliott waves movements and it currently formed a corrective wave to the downside. Daily chart: www.screencast.com Click here to access the HotForex Economic Calendar Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Short
by HotForex
1
how to trade harmonic abcd pattern with confirmation hey traders, on these charts we have a perfect example of trading harmonic abcd pattern with confirmation. first of all, on a 4h chart we have a completed abcd pattern, the completion point of the pattern matches perfectly with the structure looking left. however, two high momentum bullish candles on 4h chart make me look for a confirmation signal before taking action. though, one of the confirmation signals can be the overbought rsi on 4h chart, I am focused on the potential double top and bearish violation of a local support level on 30M chart to sell the market. such strategy helps to avoid losing trades when the market is very bullish or bearish, and easily breaks a row of supports or resistances. good luck!
Short
by VasilyTrader
RBNZ & RBABy Andria Pichidi - February 13, 2019 RBNZ held the official cash rate at 1.75%, matching widespread expectations. RBNZ reiterated its pledge to keep the rate at the current level through 2019 and 2020. "The direction of our next OCR move could be up or down", they repeated. The statement for keeping rates low, for longer than what has been stated so far, along with the statement that OCR could move either way, came in contrast with the highly dovish stance that markets anticipated. This explains Kiwi's spike, with NZDUSD jumping to 0.6851 from 0.6730 ahead of the announcement and during the conference session. RBNZ seems to be following a similar policy path to the RBA. Last week, RBA announced steady rates  at 1.50%, whilst its statement was consistent with no change in the current rate setting through 2019. Overall, the RBA maintained its view that inflation will eventually pick up, although it will take a bit longer than anticipated. Given the Fed's dovish shift, the risk was for the RBA to take a decidedly dovish turn, which Lowe and company did not. Despite the similarity between RBNZ and RBA, New Zealand continues to present an overall fair to middling economy with prospects of any kind of policy changes, as the labour market strengthens and inflation is nearly at the mid of the 1-3% target. This comes in contrast to the Australian economy, which looks erratic given sharp property price declines, despite the "strong" labour market. Furthermore, Aussie's future performance depends greatly on how the Chinese economy evolves, given the strong symbiotic link the Australian economy has with China's. Markets remain in a cautious state due to the current US-China trade talks, which presents binary risk for the Aussie given China's outsized demand for Australian exports. AUD has been trending lower over most of the last year, having declined about 12-13% over this period, largely as a consequence of the eruption of the US-China trade war. On the other hand, Kiwi's future performance is not highly linked to China since the NZ economy is not as exposed to a Chinese slowdown as Australia. Consequently, despite the common policy stance between New Zealand and Australia, all the above arguments suggest that NZD is likely to remain stable in comparison to AUD, something that could give AUDNZD a downleg until it gradually breaches a possible parity. Levels to be watched, starting from immediate to long term Support levels are : 1.0395, 1.0370, 1.0320, 1.0235. Resistances come at 1.055, 1.0667 and 1.0712. Come join us today at HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Short
by HotForex
Is EURNZD ready for a short?Watching EURNZD I still believe we got some more room to the downside since we’ve rejected from the 50 fib on the weekly TF at 1.7050 . Last week we closed as a bullish engulfing which could lead to bullish interest but we havent closed above any declining MA on the weekly yet, currently testing the EMA as resistance. On the daily TF we are now breaking out the downside of a hourly consolidation zone. Potentially closing as 3 pin bar pattern after today’s close. We’ve been in a bearish trend since 1 January after testing the key level support 1.7050 . From the daily declining trendline we are have rejected the 78.60 fib with last week’s close. If we now can push back below the monthly resistance of 1.6700 my bearish vision will be validated for me, targeting the next daily supports of 1.6600 and 1.6450 close to the next weekly support and first fib D extension. Long term take profit zone would be around 1.6455 - 1.6350 . If we take out last weeks highs we’ll have to come back to the charts, upside target could come around 1.6900 if we retest 1.6700 as support.
Education
by Newplanettrading
NZDUSD LongBuy idea for NZDUSD. Sorry for posting so late I was caught up. We see a beautiful retrace (which we also caught) after a massive push up. Retraced to the 50% Fibonacci level and made a strong level of support with substantial rejection. After the initial "tap" of the 50%, we see a new high created, followed by a higher low, and then a break of structure. It then goes bearish again and retraces back to the 50% to give us a very clean "double bottom" pattern followed by a strong M15 bullish engulfing. This was our entry.
Long
by jaketradess
NZDUSD Short. Catching the Retrace.My first trade idea on here! Welcome. NZDUSD showed HH's and HL's throughout the last couple of weeks. Each push up was followed by a retrace of at least 30-50 pips. Watched the H1 and M30 create a double top at a major level of resistance on the D1 and H4. Waited for a Bearish engulfing on the higher timeframe (H1) and a Break of Structure on the lower (M5-M15) to confirm the beginning of a retrace. Sold after the H1 bearish engulfing, placed fibs based off of the H4 chart from 0.68292 to 0.69234 as we will be using major levels as Take Profits. I know I am posting this a bit late but I do believe it has more room to drop! Much love
Short
by jaketradess