Newzealanddollar
GBPNZD Technical buy opportunity below the 1D MA50.Last time we looked into the GBPNZD pair (October 02 2024, see chart below), we issued a clear buy signal at the bottom of the long-term Channel Up, that easily hit the 2.1900 Target:
Yet again, the price got rejected at the top of the Channel Up and pulled-back where it is consolidating below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). In the 12 months of this pattern, this has always been an excellent technical buy opportunity, with the minimum immediate rally being +4.15%.
As a result, we feel confident buying this pair and target 2.2550.
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GBPNZD SHORTS MOREGBPNZD have been bearish for a while and I am looking forward to continue with the trend. I expect a third touch to the top trendline or a double top formation as an override depending on how reacts on the zone. The third touch will be more preferable for me, with 2.17015 as first target and 2.14440 as the second target.
AUDNZD Channel Up charging for the new Bullish Leg.The AUDNZD pair has been trading within a Channel Up for the past 10 months. Right now it is on an uptrend as the most recent low was made on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on December 09 2024.
Having also recently turned the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) into Support, we expect the Bullish Leg to set course towards the top (Higher Highs) of the pattern. Our Target is marginally below that at 1.12500.
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EURNZD, H1 - 12?31?24.Drawing fibonacci from last fvg created to previous high.
Price will retrace to next bid level, - fib 382 retracement, for bearish continuation.
Confirmations -
Level to retest - fib 382 retracement.
Level not to break - fib 382 retracement.
Trade Invalidity -
Change in market direction will be confirmed when price breaks 'price-point', 1.85252, and retests. Price must maintain level to continue bull-trend.
- FX_Dispenser,
You're Welcome.
NZD/USD Stabilises Ahead of the HolidaysNZD/USD Stabilises Ahead of the Holidays
Forex trading is slowing down as the holidays approach, offering a pause after significant movements driven by various news events, including central bank decisions.
Notably, NZD/USD reached its lowest level since October 2022 at the end of last week.
The decline in NZD/USD has been influenced by two main factors:
1. The dollar gained momentum following the Federal Reserve's decision to lower the interest rate by 0.25% and its forward guidance for 2025.
2. According to Reuters:
→ New Zealand's economy contracted much more sharply than expected in the second and third quarters.
→ Market participants anticipate that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may lower interest rates by 0.5% in February.
Technical analysis of the NZD/USD 4-hour chart depicts a bearish outlook:
- The 0.58 level, which served as support in November, turned into resistance in December.
- The price is currently hovering near the lower boundary of a descending channel that has been in place since October.
- The RSI indicator signals that the market is approaching oversold conditions.
While bears may attempt to extend the downtrend by pushing the price below last week’s low, this could create a divergence pattern on the RSI indicator, offering hope for a potential bullish reversal.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NZDJPY bottomed being formed. Huge long-term buy.The NZDJPY pair gave us an excellent sell signal back on our July 10 analysis (see chart below) and not only hit our 95.580 Target but broke below and invalidated the medium-term Channel Up:
The long-term Channel Up however, is still intact and it is evident on the 1W time-frame where the July - August sell-off found support and stopped exactly on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
That was the first strong long-term buy signal. Since then, the price has been consolidating within the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which has already rejected the uptrend multiple times and the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up.
The second buy signal came this month, as it made a Double Bottom on the Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel Up. This whole sequence is very similar with the bottom formations of Jan - April 2023 and December - February 2022. Both started new Bullish Legs and never looked back once the price broke above the 1W MA50.
So the confirmed buy signal for this pair will be if a 1W candle closes above the 1W MA50. If that happens, we will turn bullish with our Target being 102.000 (+18.31%, the minimum Bullish Leg rise within the Channel Up).
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NZD/USD price action: kiwi softens amid economic uncertaintyThe NZD/USD pair fell to 0.57592, reflecting significant pressure from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) ongoing monetary easing strategy, which includes recent interest rate cuts and the potential for further reductions in 2025. This easing is meant to stimulate New Zealand's economic activity by boosting consumer spending and investment. However, the growing divergence between New Zealand's and the U.S.'s monetary policies could lead to additional depreciation of the kiwi. The Federal Reserve's consideration of interest rate hikes, amid rising U.S. inflation expectations, strengthens the U.S. dollar, potentially attracting global investors seeking better returns and causing capital outflows from New Zealand. These factors could further pressure the NZD. Meanwhile, China's upcoming economic stimuli, expected to be announced at the annual Politburo conference, could positively impact the kiwi due to New Zealand's strong trade ties with China. Additionally, upcoming U.S. inflation data will likely influence market expectations regarding future Fed actions, which could further shape NZD/USD dynamics. Traders should prepare for volatility in the NZD/USD pair as these global economic developments unfold.
GBPNZD: Turning bearish if the 1D MA50 breaks.GBPNZD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.440, MACD = 0.004, ADX = 26.806), trading right over its 1D MA50. If broken, it will be the validation of the new bearish wave of the 1 year Channel Down. The 1D RSI is forming the very same Arc pattern as the May bearish wave. Upon validation, we will get short and aim for the 1D MA200, over the 0.786 Fibonacci level (TP = 2.12500).
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NZSDUSD Bottom of the 1-year Rectangle. Strong buy.The NZDUSD pair gave us a solid sell signal on our last idea (September 04, see chart below) as it respected the 1-year Rectangle pattern, stayed within its Resistance and Support levels and easily hit our 0.6000 Target:
The price hit yesterday the top of the 1-year Support Zone (0.58500) and is reacting today positively with the first green 1D candle in 6 days. The 1D RSI has double bottomed on the 30.00 oversold barrier as on April 14, so we have a strong case for going long with huge reward and limited risk. Notice how we are about to form a 1D Death Cross and the last two such patterns coincided with the bottoms on the Support Zone.
As a result, we are now long, targeting 0.6200, which is considerably below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement, the level that all previous Bullish Legs hit.
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NZDCHF Channel Down and Head and Shoulders driving it much lowerThe NZDCHF pair gave us a spot on buy signal last time we looked into it (August 23, see chart below) that easily hit the target and immediately after started a correction that broke the Channel Up to the downside:
What has emerged from that top is a Channel Down pattern, which made yesterday a new Lower High on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). That's not all however. As you can see, this Lower High can technically be the Right Shoulder of a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern, which makes the trend even more bearish.
The 1st Bearish Leg of the Channel Down reached a -4.55% decline, so another such Leg would price a Lower Low at 0.50255. This happens to be just above the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which is a standard target for H&S patterns. Our Target is marginally above both at 0.50500.
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NZDCAD Buy opportunity at the bottom of the 1-year Channel Up.The NZDCAD pair hit our 0.85650 Target as discussed on our last idea (August 22, see chart below) and then got immediately rejected:
The rejection initiated the Bearish Leg of the 1-year Channel Up and the price is approaching once more the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the pattern. The previous 2 Higher Lows were priced on the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, which is slightly below, but the 1D MACD is forming a Bullish Cross today, which has been an absolute buy signal this past year.
As a result, we turn bullish on this pair, targeting Resistance 1 at 0.86450.
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NZDUSD Daily Outlook: Bullish Bias Expected Amid Key FundamentalNZDUSD Daily Outlook: Bullish Bias Expected Amid Key Fundamental Drivers (07/11/2024)
Overview
On 7th November 2024, NZDUSD is showing signs of a slight bullish bias, driven by key economic data releases and broader market sentiment. This article provides an in-depth look at the factors shaping NZDUSD today, including central bank commentary, global market trends, and recent shifts in risk sentiment.
Keywords: NZDUSD forecast, New Zealand dollar, forex trading, USD, economic data, central bank policy, risk sentiment, technical analysis, forex market
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Key Factors Supporting NZDUSD Bullish Bias Today
1. Federal Reserve Dovish Outlook
Recent Federal Reserve statements have taken a slightly dovish tone, with policymakers emphasizing a "wait-and-see" approach to further rate hikes. The possibility of a Fed pause on interest rates provides support to the New Zealand dollar, as market sentiment leans towards a softer USD.
2. RBNZ’s Hawkish Stance on Interest Rates
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently signaled a focus on inflation control, reinforcing a hawkish stance relative to the Fed. This contrasts with other central banks, positioning NZD as an attractive currency in the current global environment. Markets are pricing in a limited chance of a rate hike from the RBNZ in the near term, which could further support NZD.
3. Improved Risk Sentiment
Global markets have seen an increase in risk appetite, with equities rebounding and commodities trading higher. This shift often benefits the NZD due to its reputation as a commodity-linked and high-yield currency. As investors seek yield, demand for the New Zealand dollar may rise, enhancing NZDUSD.
4. Strong New Zealand Economic Data
New Zealand’s recent economic data, including employment figures and business confidence, indicate resilience in the economy. Solid domestic growth and low unemployment rates suggest underlying strength, which could further boost NZD demand against USD.
5. Technical Analysis Indicators
From a technical standpoint, NZDUSD is approaching key support levels around 0.5900, showing upward momentum and signaling a potential reversal. RSI (Relative Strength Index) levels indicate that the pair may have room to move higher before hitting overbought territory, aligning with a bullish outlook.
NZDUSD Today: What to Watch For
- US Initial Jobless Claims – Scheduled later today, these figures may influence USD if they show a labor market slowdown, potentially adding to the Fed’s dovish stance and supporting NZDUSD.
- NZDUSD’s Resistance Levels – Key resistance near 0.6050 could be tested if bullish momentum continues, while support at 0.5900 could offer a base.
Conclusion
Given the softer stance from the Federal Reserve and favorable economic data from New Zealand, NZDUSD shows signs of a slight bullish bias. As always, forex traders should monitor any significant data releases closely, as these could prompt volatility in NZDUSD.
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NZDUSD: Bullish scenario The 4H market structure is bullish
Also as you can see on the chart the 15 min chart is bullish.
So it can be a good opportunity to buy on the demand zone with LTF confirmation.
Please pay attention, both demand zones are valid, we can enter to the position with LTF confirmation.
AUDNZD: Bullish extension expected.AUDNZD is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.156, MACD = 0.002, ADX = 27.433) as it maintained the rebound made on the 4H MA200 and bottom of the Channel Up. According to the 4H RSI, this pattern is similar to the 4H MA200 of April that made one final extension on that rebound to the 1.786 Fibonacci level. Our target is slightly under it (TP = 1.117500).
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