Market Analysis: NZD/USD Could Continue HigherMarket Analysis: NZD/USD Could Continue Higher
NZD/USD is showing positive signs and might attempt a fresh increase above 0.5720.
Important Takeaways for NZD USD Analysis Today
- NZD/USD is holding gains above the 0.5695 support zone.
- There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 0.5720 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of NZD/USD on FXOpen, the pair started a steady increase from the 0.5585 zone. The New Zealand Dollar broke the 0.5635 resistance to start the recent increase against the US Dollar.
The pair settled above 0.5695 and the 50-hour simple moving average. It tested the 0.5760 zone and is currently correcting gains. The pair corrected lower below the 0.5720 level. The pair also traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 0.5595 swing low to the 0.5759 high.
Besides, there was a break below a major bullish trend line with support at 0.5720. The NZD/USD chart suggests that the RSI is now below 50. On the downside, there is major support forming near 0.5695.
The next major support is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 0.5595 swing low to the 0.5759 high at 0.5660.
If there is a downside break below the 0.5660 support, the pair might slide toward the 0.5635 support. Any more losses could lead NZD/USD in a bearish zone to 05585.
On the upside, the pair might struggle near 0.5720. The next major resistance is near the 0.5760 level. A clear move above the 0.5760 level might even push the pair toward the 0.5800 level. Any more gains might clear the path for a move toward the 0.5840 resistance zone in the coming days.
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Newzealanddollar
LONG ON NZD/USDNZD/USD is giving nice uptrend structure from the higher TF.
Currently it has pulled back to a key support area and is looking good for a rise.
Dollar (DXY) is overall bearish and currently falling. (This has a inverse correlation with XXX/USD pairs)
I will be buying NZD/USD to the next resistance level / previous high for about 150-200 pips.
NZDUSD Short-term Channel Up aiming higher.The NZDUSD pair has been trading within a 20-day Channel Up and today hit its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). Last time it did (February 18), it held and initiated a rebound marginally above the 1.236 Fibonacci extension.
Given that the current pull-back is almost as strong (-1.30%) as the previous, but more importantly the 4H RSI hit its 1-month Higher Lows trend-line, we expect a rebound. Our Target is again the 1.236 Fib ext, this time at 0.57900.
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NZDUSD preparing massive rebound on the 5-year Support Zone.The NZDUSD pair rebounded last week exactly at the top of the 5-year Support Zone. This is the 3rd time in total and first since October 10 2022.
As you can see, both previous times that this Support Zone was touched, the price reacted with an immediate rebound and skyrocketed to the long-term Resistance Zone (0.65150 - 0.65850). Also on both those bottoms, the 1W RSI broke below the 30.00 oversold barrier and rebounded.
This time, we have the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) to consider as the first long-term Resistance, so our Target is just below a potential extension of it at 0.6200.
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GBPNZD Technical buy opportunity below the 1D MA50.Last time we looked into the GBPNZD pair (October 02 2024, see chart below), we issued a clear buy signal at the bottom of the long-term Channel Up, that easily hit the 2.1900 Target:
Yet again, the price got rejected at the top of the Channel Up and pulled-back where it is consolidating below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). In the 12 months of this pattern, this has always been an excellent technical buy opportunity, with the minimum immediate rally being +4.15%.
As a result, we feel confident buying this pair and target 2.2550.
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GBPNZD SHORTS MOREGBPNZD have been bearish for a while and I am looking forward to continue with the trend. I expect a third touch to the top trendline or a double top formation as an override depending on how reacts on the zone. The third touch will be more preferable for me, with 2.17015 as first target and 2.14440 as the second target.
AUDNZD Channel Up charging for the new Bullish Leg.The AUDNZD pair has been trading within a Channel Up for the past 10 months. Right now it is on an uptrend as the most recent low was made on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on December 09 2024.
Having also recently turned the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) into Support, we expect the Bullish Leg to set course towards the top (Higher Highs) of the pattern. Our Target is marginally below that at 1.12500.
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EURNZD, H1 - 12?31?24.Drawing fibonacci from last fvg created to previous high.
Price will retrace to next bid level, - fib 382 retracement, for bearish continuation.
Confirmations -
Level to retest - fib 382 retracement.
Level not to break - fib 382 retracement.
Trade Invalidity -
Change in market direction will be confirmed when price breaks 'price-point', 1.85252, and retests. Price must maintain level to continue bull-trend.
- FX_Dispenser,
You're Welcome.
NZD/USD Stabilises Ahead of the HolidaysNZD/USD Stabilises Ahead of the Holidays
Forex trading is slowing down as the holidays approach, offering a pause after significant movements driven by various news events, including central bank decisions.
Notably, NZD/USD reached its lowest level since October 2022 at the end of last week.
The decline in NZD/USD has been influenced by two main factors:
1. The dollar gained momentum following the Federal Reserve's decision to lower the interest rate by 0.25% and its forward guidance for 2025.
2. According to Reuters:
→ New Zealand's economy contracted much more sharply than expected in the second and third quarters.
→ Market participants anticipate that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may lower interest rates by 0.5% in February.
Technical analysis of the NZD/USD 4-hour chart depicts a bearish outlook:
- The 0.58 level, which served as support in November, turned into resistance in December.
- The price is currently hovering near the lower boundary of a descending channel that has been in place since October.
- The RSI indicator signals that the market is approaching oversold conditions.
While bears may attempt to extend the downtrend by pushing the price below last week’s low, this could create a divergence pattern on the RSI indicator, offering hope for a potential bullish reversal.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NZDJPY bottomed being formed. Huge long-term buy.The NZDJPY pair gave us an excellent sell signal back on our July 10 analysis (see chart below) and not only hit our 95.580 Target but broke below and invalidated the medium-term Channel Up:
The long-term Channel Up however, is still intact and it is evident on the 1W time-frame where the July - August sell-off found support and stopped exactly on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
That was the first strong long-term buy signal. Since then, the price has been consolidating within the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which has already rejected the uptrend multiple times and the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up.
The second buy signal came this month, as it made a Double Bottom on the Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel Up. This whole sequence is very similar with the bottom formations of Jan - April 2023 and December - February 2022. Both started new Bullish Legs and never looked back once the price broke above the 1W MA50.
So the confirmed buy signal for this pair will be if a 1W candle closes above the 1W MA50. If that happens, we will turn bullish with our Target being 102.000 (+18.31%, the minimum Bullish Leg rise within the Channel Up).
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NZD/USD price action: kiwi softens amid economic uncertaintyThe NZD/USD pair fell to 0.57592, reflecting significant pressure from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) ongoing monetary easing strategy, which includes recent interest rate cuts and the potential for further reductions in 2025. This easing is meant to stimulate New Zealand's economic activity by boosting consumer spending and investment. However, the growing divergence between New Zealand's and the U.S.'s monetary policies could lead to additional depreciation of the kiwi. The Federal Reserve's consideration of interest rate hikes, amid rising U.S. inflation expectations, strengthens the U.S. dollar, potentially attracting global investors seeking better returns and causing capital outflows from New Zealand. These factors could further pressure the NZD. Meanwhile, China's upcoming economic stimuli, expected to be announced at the annual Politburo conference, could positively impact the kiwi due to New Zealand's strong trade ties with China. Additionally, upcoming U.S. inflation data will likely influence market expectations regarding future Fed actions, which could further shape NZD/USD dynamics. Traders should prepare for volatility in the NZD/USD pair as these global economic developments unfold.
GBPNZD: Turning bearish if the 1D MA50 breaks.GBPNZD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.440, MACD = 0.004, ADX = 26.806), trading right over its 1D MA50. If broken, it will be the validation of the new bearish wave of the 1 year Channel Down. The 1D RSI is forming the very same Arc pattern as the May bearish wave. Upon validation, we will get short and aim for the 1D MA200, over the 0.786 Fibonacci level (TP = 2.12500).
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NZSDUSD Bottom of the 1-year Rectangle. Strong buy.The NZDUSD pair gave us a solid sell signal on our last idea (September 04, see chart below) as it respected the 1-year Rectangle pattern, stayed within its Resistance and Support levels and easily hit our 0.6000 Target:
The price hit yesterday the top of the 1-year Support Zone (0.58500) and is reacting today positively with the first green 1D candle in 6 days. The 1D RSI has double bottomed on the 30.00 oversold barrier as on April 14, so we have a strong case for going long with huge reward and limited risk. Notice how we are about to form a 1D Death Cross and the last two such patterns coincided with the bottoms on the Support Zone.
As a result, we are now long, targeting 0.6200, which is considerably below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement, the level that all previous Bullish Legs hit.
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NZDCHF Channel Down and Head and Shoulders driving it much lowerThe NZDCHF pair gave us a spot on buy signal last time we looked into it (August 23, see chart below) that easily hit the target and immediately after started a correction that broke the Channel Up to the downside:
What has emerged from that top is a Channel Down pattern, which made yesterday a new Lower High on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). That's not all however. As you can see, this Lower High can technically be the Right Shoulder of a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern, which makes the trend even more bearish.
The 1st Bearish Leg of the Channel Down reached a -4.55% decline, so another such Leg would price a Lower Low at 0.50255. This happens to be just above the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which is a standard target for H&S patterns. Our Target is marginally above both at 0.50500.
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