NZDJPY: Rectangle trading calls for buying.NZDJPY is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 52.566, MACD = 0.350, ADX = 19.993) as it's been trading sideways inside a Rectangle pattern since September 27th. The recent rebound happened on the 4H MA200 and today it took a rejection on the 4H MA50. One more test of the 4H MA200 is possible but overall it is more likely to see an upward test of the lower Resistance Zone (TP = 91.800).
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Newzealanddollar
NZDUSD Daily Analysis: Anticipating a Slightly Bullish Bias.Introduction
Today, we focus on the NZDUSD pair, assessing if a slightly bullish bias is likely. Amid evolving fundamental factors and current market sentiment, the New Zealand Dollar to US Dollar (NZDUSD) may see subtle upward momentum, depending on several key drivers. Let’s explore these influences in more detail to help traders make informed decisions.
1. Recent NZ Economic Indicators
New Zealand's recent economic data shows a stable but cautious outlook, with moderate improvements in employment and inflation metrics. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has maintained a wait-and-see approach, prioritizing inflation control without aggressively tightening interest rates. Recent improvements in inflation data may continue to support the NZD, as stable inflation signals robust economic activity without undue financial strain. These trends encourage moderate investment inflows into New Zealand, providing slight upward pressure on the NZD.
2. Federal Reserve and US Economic Data
The US Federal Reserve’s recent signals suggest the potential for a pause in rate hikes. This dovish stance supports risk sentiment, favoring currencies like the NZD. If the Fed emphasizes an inflation-fighting stance with a cautious approach, risk sentiment could rise, supporting a slightly bullish bias for NZDUSD. Additionally, softer-than-expected US economic data may weigh on the USD, creating room for the NZD to gain traction.
3. Commodity Prices and Global Trade Dynamics
New Zealand's economy is heavily influenced by commodity prices, particularly dairy and agricultural exports. A recent uptick in global dairy prices is favorable for the NZD, as higher export revenues strengthen New Zealand’s trade balance and overall economic resilience. Improved trade relations between China and New Zealand may also bolster investor confidence in the NZD, as China is a major trade partner. Positive developments here could add to NZD strength against the USD.
4. Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite
Global risk sentiment plays a critical role in shaping the NZDUSD pair’s direction. The NZD often benefits in risk-on environments due to its status as a high-beta currency. Currently, with geopolitical uncertainties relatively controlled and a more stable global economic backdrop, risk appetite may support NZDUSD gains. If investors remain optimistic about global growth, the NZD’s appeal increases, leaning the bias towards a slight bullish trend.
Conclusion
In summary, the NZDUSD pair could exhibit a slightly bullish bias today, driven by favorable domestic economic indicators, the US Fed’s dovish stance, rising commodity prices, and stable market sentiment. This anticipated trend is subject to fluctuations, and traders are advised to keep a close eye on US data releases and global risk dynamics.
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NZDUSD Daily Outlook: Slight Bullish Bias Amid Today !!NZDUSD Daily Outlook: Slight Bullish Bias Amid Current Market Conditions (31/10/2024)
Introduction
As we delve into today’s trading session, the NZDUSD pair shows signs of a slightly bullish bias due to a combination of fundamental drivers and current market conditions. This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the NZDUSD's outlook on October 31, 2024, shedding light on the key factors impacting the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and the US Dollar (USD) in today’s trading environment. With the right blend of technical and fundamental insights, we aim to offer valuable insights for traders considering NZDUSD positions.
Key Fundamental Drivers Impacting NZDUSD Today
1. China's Economic Growth and Its Influence on NZD
- The New Zealand Dollar, a commodity-linked currency, closely correlates with China's economic health due to New Zealand's export reliance. Recent reports suggest a moderate recovery in China's industrial and manufacturing data, which bodes well for NZD. Increased demand for New Zealand exports, especially dairy, bolsters the Kiwi's outlook, creating an overall positive sentiment for NZDUSD.
2. Federal Reserve’s Dovish Stance
- A significant driver for NZDUSD is the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance, with expectations for a pause on future rate hikes. This has resulted in a softer USD as investors anticipate fewer rate hikes going forward. A dovish Fed policy tends to weaken the USD, increasing the attractiveness of the NZD and slightly tilting NZDUSD towards bullishness.
3. New Zealand's Stable Economic Indicators
- New Zealand’s recent economic data reveals consistent GDP growth, low unemployment rates, and a robust labor market. This stability has created an optimistic environment for the New Zealand Dollar. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has maintained a steady rate outlook, supporting the Kiwi by keeping investors interested in NZD assets due to positive yields.
4. US Treasury Yield Fluctuations and Its Impact on USD
- The ongoing fluctuations in US Treasury yields have contributed to the USD's recent mixed performance. A decline in yields typically makes the USD less attractive, as lower yields reduce the appeal for foreign investors. As a result, NZDUSD may benefit from a weaker USD, supporting a bullish bias in today’s trading.
5. Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite
- Recent geopolitical tensions and global market fluctuations have impacted the broader market sentiment. The Kiwi typically gains when there is a higher risk appetite among investors. As volatility stabilizes, we may see increased demand for higher-yielding currencies, which could strengthen NZDUSD’s position, albeit moderately.
Technical Analysis of NZDUSD (31/10/2024)
Looking at today’s technical setup for NZDUSD, the pair trades above its 50-day moving average, a potential bullish indicator. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits near the 60 mark, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish sentiment. Support levels at 0.5850 and resistance near 0.5920 will be critical zones to monitor.
Key Support: 0.5850
Key Resistance: 0.5920
Conclusion: NZDUSD Outlook for 31/10/2024
With today’s economic data and current sentiment, the NZDUSD pair leans towards a slightly bullish outlook. Strong economic fundamentals from New Zealand, coupled with a softer US Dollar from a dovish Federal Reserve stance, are influencing the pair's potential upward movement. However, traders should stay vigilant to potential changes in Treasury yields and any abrupt shifts in global risk sentiment.
By focusing on today’s fundamental and technical drivers, NZDUSD traders can better gauge the market’s slight bullish bias.
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NZD/JPY Triangle Pattern in Daily Time Frame: Breakout and Long On the daily time frame, I’m monitoring a triangle pattern on NZD/JPY. Once a confirmed breakout occurs, I plan to enter a long position. My first target will be the pink resistance zone. This key level could provide the next significant resistance point, and I’m waiting for price confirmation before taking action.
NZD/SGD Tests and Rejects Key Demand Area, Bullish Sentiment.Over the past three days, the NZD/SGD pair has retested a previous demand area and shown a clear rejection, signaling potential buying interest at this level. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report adds weight to this scenario, revealing that retail traders remain predominantly short, while "Smart Money"—institutional investors—are beginning to edge higher in their positioning.
Large speculators have already turned bullish, reflecting a growing confidence in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) relative to the Singapore Dollar (SGD). This shift in sentiment could set the stage for a possible long setup, particularly as seasonal trends suggest further upside potential for NZD/SGD.
From a technical perspective, the rejection of the demand zone, combined with the bullish shift in institutional positioning, points to a potential upward move. Traders will be closely monitoring price action in the coming days for confirmation of a breakout, which could present an opportunity to enter long positions in alignment with the emerging bullish sentiment.
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NZD/USD Attracts Modest Buying on Friday Amid USD WeaknessThe NZD/USD pair has attracted some buying interest for the second consecutive day on Friday, driven by a modest weakening of the US Dollar (USD). However, the upside momentum lacks strong bullish conviction as the pair continues to hover around the 0.6071 level, close to the one-month low touched earlier this week. Despite the rebound, market sentiment surrounding the pair remains cautious, with traders awaiting further cues from both global economic developments and key technical indicators.
US Dollar Weakness Offers Relief
The primary driver behind the modest gains in NZD/USD has been the slight pullback in the US Dollar. The greenback has recently shown signs of weakening after a strong rally in previous weeks, largely supported by robust US economic data and hawkish expectations around the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The recent downtick in the USD has provided some breathing room for risk-sensitive currencies like the New Zealand Dollar, allowing for a temporary recovery in the pair.
Technical Outlook: Demand Zone Holds Firm
From a technical perspective, the NZD/USD pair appears to have rejected a significant demand zone, suggesting that there is support for the pair at current levels. This demand area has seen increased buying interest, particularly as retail traders remain extremely short on the pair. In contrast, smart money – typically institutional investors with deeper market insights – has started to build long positions, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment.
The rejection of the demand zone and the presence of long positions from smart money traders suggest that the NZD/USD pair could be poised for further gains. This technical setup aligns with the broader seasonality patterns that indicate a potential uptrend in the coming weeks.
Seasonality and Market Sentiment: Bullish Signs Ahead?
Seasonality data, which tracks historical patterns in currency movements, shows a potential uptrend for the NZD/USD pair. This is supported by the current market positioning, where retail traders are overwhelmingly short, creating a contrarian signal for a potential rally. Smart money's shift towards building long positions adds weight to the argument that the pair may be headed for a sustained move higher.
Given these factors, we have decided to open a long position on NZD/USD, taking advantage of the technical setup, smart money movements, and favorable seasonality trends. While the overall market sentiment remains cautious, the combination of these signals offers a compelling case for a potential bullish move in the near term.
Conclusion: A Cautious Bullish Outlook
While the NZD/USD pair has attracted modest buying on the back of USD weakness, the bullish conviction remains limited for now. However, the rejection of a key demand area, coupled with the increasing long positions from smart money and favorable seasonality patterns, suggests that the pair could see further upside in the days ahead.
As always, traders should remain cautious and monitor upcoming economic data releases and market developments that could influence the pair's direction. Nonetheless, the technical and fundamental setup currently points to a potential opportunity for upside gains, and we are positioned accordingly with a long trade.
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NZD/USD Rebounds, But Caution Remains Ahead of US Economic DataThe NZD/USD pair rebounded today from a key demand area, but caution remains among traders as critical US economic data looms. The upcoming reports for USD Core Retail Sales (m/m), Retail Sales (m/m), and Unemployment Claims are expected to inject volatility into USD-correlated currency pairs, particularly affecting both EUR/USD and NZD/USD. These data points are crucial for assessing the strength of the US economy, and stronger-than-expected results could further support the US Dollar (USD), applying downward pressure on other currencies like the euro and the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).
China's Economic Data in Focus for NZD
In addition to US developments, market participants are likely to remain cautious ahead of key economic data from China, New Zealand’s top trading partner, scheduled for release on Friday. The upcoming GDP and Retail Sales figures will be closely monitored, especially after the recent disappointment in China’s CPI and PPI numbers. Weak results from China could have negative implications for the NZD, given New Zealand’s heavy reliance on trade with China.
The New Zealand Dollar has faced additional challenges, as China's recently announced fiscal stimulus measures have failed to lift market sentiment. Investors remain uncertain about the scale and impact of the stimulus package, further weighing on the outlook for the NZD.
USD Strength and Federal Reserve Outlook
Meanwhile, the US Dollar has found support from strong labor and inflation data, which has tempered market expectations for aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is currently a 92.1% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in November, with little to no expectation of a larger 50-basis-point reduction. This has kept the USD resilient, further limiting the upside potential for the NZD/USD pair.
Technical Outlook and Market Sentiment
From a technical standpoint, while the NZD/USD has seen a rebound, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals that retail traders remain bearish on the pair, whereas smart money has started increasing their positions. In addition, our forecast suggests a potential shift toward a bullish seasonality for the NZD, though market conditions remain uncertain.
Given the importance of today’s US economic data, we are adopting a patient approach, waiting for the news release before considering any entries. Stronger-than-expected US figures could dampen the outlook for the NZD, while weaker data may present opportunities for the NZD to regain strength.
In conclusion, while there are signs of a potential bullish trend emerging for the NZD/USD, the combination of ongoing USD strength and upcoming key economic releases from both the US and China makes it necessary to remain cautious in the near term. Patience will be key as we await further developments in the market.
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NZDUSD: Short Term SellEntry: 0.6080
Stop Loss: 0.6140 (60 pips above entry)
Take Profit: 0.5980 (100 pips below entry, offering a 1.67:1 reward-to-risk ratio)
Reasoning:
The New Zealand dollar is displaying signs of weakness, and with global risk-off sentiment prevailing, NZD/USD may continue to fall towards 0.5980. This setup provides a favorable risk-to-reward opportunity.
NZDUSD: Broke under both MAs. Strong sell signalNZDUSD is highly bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 36.216, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 38.839) as it smashed through both the 1D MA50 and the 1D MA200. The long term structure is a Rectangle (R1 and S1 Zone) and the current pattern that is emerging is almost identical with the previous bearish waves towards the S1 Zone. It is possible to see a medium term reboudn back to the 1D MA50 but on the long term we are bearish (TP = 0.58600).
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GBPNZD Strong buy signal at the bottom of the Channel Up.The GBPNZD pair has been trading within an 11-month Channel Up and since its break below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on August 28, it has been forming the new bottom. Monday saw it approaching the Higher Lows trend-line and with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) just below it as a Support, we believe that we've seen the new Low.
In fact, as the 1D RSI made a Double Bottom, it resembles the Channel's last bottom formation on June 06. The final confirmation of the bullish break-out will be when a 1D candle closes above the 1D MA50. We expect at least a +4.45% rise, thus targeting 2.19000 on the medium-term.
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AUDNZD Waiting patiently for that sellThe AUDNZD pair gave us the ultimate sell signal last time (July 11, see chart below) on the 0.786 Fibonacci Channel level and easily hit our long-term 1.08000 Target:
The recent 3-week rebound on its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) is giving us another chance to open another low risk sell on the 0.618 Fibonacci level, similar to all previous Arc tops. Our Target will be the 0.236 Fib at 1.07900, which has been the most usual Support since 2023.
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Kiwibank Lowers Kiwi ForecastThe New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD) has slipped below its 25-day exponential moving average (EMA) and could potentially test the 50-day EMA next. But, can sellers maintain the momentum and push further into bearish territory?
Kiwibank is betting on more downside due to faster and deeper rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). However, their initial bearish outlook has softened somewhat.
"In our previous FX Tactical, we anticipated the Kiwi heading towards the 0.5700 mark. But given its reluctance to trade down to that level, we've adjusted our expectations. While we still believe the Kiwi should be lower, it's clear the 0.5700 target is less likely. At this point, 0.5900 seems a more reasonable level," the bank stated.
Further complicating the outlook is China’s influence. Like the Australian dollar, the Kiwi can find support from economic developments in China. Talks of a potential stimulus package from Beijing had initially buoyed market sentiment, but UBS remains unimpressed. The investment bank noted that the scale of China's recent measures falls short of previous stimulus efforts, which historically triggered strong market rallies. Economists cited by The Wall Street Journal share this view, pointing out that borrowing costs are already low, yet demand for credit remains sluggish. Consumer confidence, dragged down by concerns over jobs and the ongoing property market meltdown, remains near historic lows.
NZDJPY Huge long-term bullish signal emerged.The NZDJPY pair gave us an excellent sell signal last time (July 10, see chart below) and not only hit our 95.580 Target but broke below and invalidated the medium-term Channel Up:
The long-term Channel Up however, is still intact and it is evident on the 1W time-frame where the July-August sell-off found support and stopped exactly on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
This alone is the first long-term buy signal. The second is a double one and will be given if the price closes above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which has already rejected the uptrend twice since August and the 1W MACD forms a Bullish Cross. As you can see on this chart, every time the 1W MACD Bullish Cross coincided with a price closing above the 1W MA50, it was the strongest buy confirmation since 2020.
So if that confirmation is achieved, we will turn bullish with our Target being 102.000 (+18.31%, the minimum Bullish Leg rise within the Channel Up).
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NZD/USD Hits Supply Level,Potential Double Top Formation SignalsAs forecasted in our recent analysis, the NZD/USD pair has reached the key supply level around 0.6230. At this level, a potential double top formation is emerging, which, in confluence with the supply area, suggests that a retracement may be on the horizon. Adding further weight to the potential for a pullback, the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows that retail traders are heavily long on the NZD/USD, which often serves as a contrarian indicator when combined with technical signals like the double top pattern.
Today's focus for investors will be on the preliminary US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for September, which could provide more clues for the next movement in the NZD/USD pair. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to tick up slightly to 48.6 in September from 47.9 in August, signaling a continued contraction in the sector but at a slower pace. Meanwhile, the Services PMI is projected to slip marginally to 55.3 in September from 55.7 in August, indicating a still-expanding services sector, though at a slower rate.
Given the current technical setup at the supply zone and the economic backdrop, we are looking for a short setup on NZD/USD, anticipating further downside pressure. The likelihood of a stronger USD could rise, particularly if today's PMI data supports the case for US economic resilience, contrasting with weakness in other major economies like Germany, where the Flash Manufacturing PMI has disappointed markets.
As the EUR/USD continues to fall following poor German data, further strengthening of the USD could weigh on the NZD/USD pair, reinforcing the bearish outlook. The combination of retail traders' long positions, a possible double top formation at the supply zone, and positive momentum in the USD positions the pair for a potential retracement, offering a favorable opportunity for short-term bearish setups.
Traders should watch today's PMI releases closely, as any stronger-than-expected results from the US could amplify USD strength and accelerate the anticipated pullback in the NZD/USD pair.
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NZD/USD: Bearish Continuation Confirmed After Key USD DataIn line with our previous analysis, NZD/USD triggered our sell limit order last Friday, signaling a potential bearish move after the release of key U.S. economic data. Initially, the U.S. dollar weakened following the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Claims reports, which delivered softer-than-expected results, raising concerns about the strength of the U.S. labor market. However, the dollar quickly regained its footing due to positive outcomes from the Final Services PMI, ISM Services PMI, and Crude Oil Inventories, all of which reinforced confidence in the U.S. economy.
As a result, the New Zealand dollar, like other major currencies, began a reversal, continuing its bearish trend against the strengthening USD. The recovery in the U.S. dollar has put downward pressure on NZD, confirming our expectations of a bearish continuation for the pair.
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report remains consistent with our earlier forecasts. Institutional players are still favoring a bearish outlook on the NZD, while retail traders are likely still holding onto bullish positions, creating a divergence that suggests more downside potential for NZD/USD. With these factors in mind, we are confident in our bearish stance and expect the pair to reach our take profit target in the coming days.
Technically, the price action supports our forecast, with the NZD/USD pair failing to break key resistance levels and continuing to trade within a bearish channel. The reversal we anticipated has materialized, and the pair appears poised to continue its downward movement as the U.S. dollar remains strong in the wake of positive economic data.
In conclusion, our analysis points to further downside for NZD/USD this week, and we remain focused on reaching our take profit target. With both fundamental and technical factors aligned, the outlook for the pair remains bearish, and traders should be prepared for continued weakness in the New Zealand dollar as the U.S. dollar continues to recover.
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NZD/USD: Traders Eye Short Setup After Key ReboundThe NZD/USD pair saw a strong recovery from its intraday low of 0.6170 during Wednesday’s New York session. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) regained some ground as the US Dollar (USD) struggled to maintain its upward momentum, having recently corrected from a fresh two-week high. Investors are now eagerly awaiting the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, the highlight of a data-heavy week for the US economy.
From a technical standpoint, the price had already rebounded from a key Supply area, and after today's short recovery, traders may find an opportunity for a potential short setup. This pullback could be seen as a chance to enter the market by setting a Sell Limit order or entering directly to take advantage of the correction. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals that retail traders are increasingly aggressive on the long side, while Smart Money appears to be reducing its positions, signaling a possible bearish trend.
Additionally, seasonality data further hints at the potential for a bearish move in the near future. With several factors aligning, traders may be preparing for a potential downside in the NZD/USD pair, making this pullback an attractive opportunity for short positions.
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NZDUSD Strong sell opportunity.The NZDUSD pair gave us last time (June 26, see chart below) a solid sell signal, even though the Target just fell short of being hit:
The price is giving yet again a sell signal as not only it fulfilled the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level and got rejected but also the 1D RSI hit and got rejected exactly on the 70.00 overbought barrier, which is where all tops since late 2022 have been priced.
As a result, we expect the pair to initially hit at least 0.6000 towards the end of this month.
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EURNZD - NEW BREAKOUT Hello Traders !
On Thursday 25 July, The EURNZD reached the resistance level (1.83844 - 1.84623) and failed to break it !
The price broke the support level (1.79254 - 1.79915).
This key level becomes a new resistance !
So, I expect a bearish move 📉
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TARGET: 1.77500🎯
NZDCHF Short-term buy on this Channel Up.The NZDCHF pair has been trading within a short-term Channel Up and yesterday hit its bottom, technically pricing the new Higher Low. Being around the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) currently, we expect this to be the start of the new Bullish Leg.
The previous two rose by +2.63% and +2.19% respectively so we expect the current one to be at least another +2.19% from the Higher Low. As a result our short-term Target is 0.53100.
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