Did you miss out on the surprise NZD/USD trade? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25 basis points, sending the New Zealand dollar plunging by 1% against the U.S. dollar. The move caught markets off guard, as most analysts had anticipated the central bank would hold rates steady until at least its next meeting. Today wasn’t supposed to be the day, but these are the moments traders eagerly anticipate to capitalize on sudden market shifts.
The RBNZ's decision underscores a growing trend among central banks, signaling a potential global shift in monetary policy. This early rate cut hints that central banks may be increasingly focused on fostering economic growth and ensuring a soft landing amid weakening economies. The big question now: Will the Federal Reserve follow suit?
The NZD/USD had been on an upward trajectory for nearly two weeks, but that rally has now reversed. The pair has broken above the 200-day moving average and is nearing the 50-day as well. The key support zone around 0.5850, which has held since last September, could now be in play, with a closer pivot point near 0.5980.
Newzealanddollar
NZD Outlook: ANZ’s Forecast for Next Week NZD Outlook: ANZ’s Forecast for Next Week
ANZ anticipates that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will maintain its current interest rates at the August 14 meeting but may signal potential rate cuts before the year ends. Although ANZ estimates a small 10-15% chance that the RBNZ might shift to an easing bias during this coming meeting.
Markets are currently pricing in 89 basis points of cuts by November 2024 and 222 basis points by November 2025. However, ANZ is cautioning against expecting such drastic moves and that markets could be disappointed with this reflected in market volatility if the RBNZ doesn't deliver.
A key level to watch on the downside is April’s low which has twice served as a support level in recent weeks, rebuffing sellers.
NZD/USD is currently moving higher, nearing the 100 SMA on the daily chart. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that momentum remains strong, with the potential for a softer unemployment claim report from the US influencing the pair’s short-term direction.
NZD/USD Continues to Decline Amid Growing Global TensionsThe NZD/USD pair extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 0.5920 during the European session on Tuesday. This decline is attributed to growing tensions in the Middle East and increasing fears of an economic slowdown in the United States (US). These factors have dampened the appeal of risk-sensitive currencies like the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), contributing to its continued depreciation.
Market sentiment has been significantly affected by geopolitical uncertainties, leading investors to seek safer assets. The potential for further escalation in the Middle East is causing caution, and coupled with the prospects of slower economic growth in the US, the NZD is experiencing heightened pressure.
From a technical perspective, we are currently refraining from taking any positions. Our focus is on observing the price action as it approaches the demand area around 0.5850. This level is of particular interest as we anticipate that the price may land there soon. Should the price react favorably at this demand area, it could present a potential trading opportunity.
In summary, the NZD/USD is under strain due to global tensions and economic concerns. While we are not currently taking any positions, we are closely monitoring the market for a possible reaction near the 0.5850 demand area, which could provide insights into the pair's next movements.
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GBPNZD Sell signal at the top of the Channel Up.The GBPNZD pair is approaching the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 7-month Channel Up and has already completed a +4.40% rise since its recent Higher Low. That is the exact rise % that the previous two Bullish Legs of the Channel achieved.
As a result this is close to the most optimal sell signal we can get. Both previous Bearish Legs that followed such top sell signals, reached at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Therefore, our short-term Target on this pair is 2.09500.
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GBPNZD - The Correction Is ImminentGBPNZD has shown an impressive rally in recent weeks.
Bearish divergences are now all too obvious, and retailer sentiment is also very bullish - a combination that warns bulls to be cautious.
We are trying to position ourselves in the market with a short and benefit from a very attractive RRR of around 2.6:1.
AUDNZD Two levels to sell for the long-term.The AUDNZD pair gave us a strong sell-and-buy double signal last time (June 03, see chart below):
However it did manage to invalidate the Symmetrical Resistance Zone sell bias and even broke yesterday above Resistance 2 (1.108600), which has been holding since February 20 2023.
In order to make sense of this move, it is best to view it on the wider 1W time-frame. As long as the 1W candle is closing below Resistance 2, then the action remains a sell, targeting 1.08000 (0.236 Fibonacci level).
If the 1W candle closes above Resistance 2, we will take the loss immediately and sell at the top of the Channel Up with the same Target (1.08000).
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NZDJPY Sell signal at the top of the Channel Up.The NZDJPY has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the March 24 2023 bottom and today just made contact with its top (Higher Highs trend-line). We expect a strong rejection, similar to July 05 2023 that pulled-back all the way to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line).
As a result, we treat today's rejection as a strong sell opportunity. Our Target is 95.580 (Fib 0.382).
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NZDCHF Strong buy opportunity within the Channel Up.The NZDCHF pair delivered a fast-profit buy signal last time (May 09, see chart below), with the price even breaking above the established Channel Up:
A new Channel Up prevailed as seen on the current chart and since it held the Support of the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), it broke again above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and gave a bullish confirmation.
We expect the extension of the uptrend in the form of the new Bullish Leg of the Channel Up (1D RSI also rebounded on a bottom formation similar to all previous buy opportunities). Our Target is 0.56750 (Resistance 2).
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NZDCAD Excellent buy opportunity on this pull-back.The NZDCAD pair gave us a great buy entry last time we looked at it (May 08, see chart below) and made a direct hit on our 0.8500 Target:
The price got heavily rejected straight after and just hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again. The pattern that seems to be prevailing is a Channel Up (blue). The last time we had a Higher High rejection on its top, the pair pulled-back to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and then made a short-term bounce to the Internal Lower Highs trend-line.
As a result, we will be using this opportunity to buy and target 0.84500 (just below the symmetrical Lower Highs trend-line).
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Capture 80 Pips on NZDCHF + Tips for Small vs. Big GainsIn this video, I'm diving into a quick trading opportunity on NZDCHF, aiming to capture a swift 80 pips! I'll also share valuable tips on how to determine when to go for small gains and when to aim for larger ones.
We'll analyze the current market conditions, key indicators, and technical setups that make this 80-pip gain a solid target. Plus, I'll explain my decision-making process and the factors that influence whether to pursue small or big gains.
Join me for an insightful session packed with actionable strategies and expert advice to enhance your trading decisions. Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more high-impact trading tips and market analysis. Let's capture those pips together! 🚀💹
NZDUSD Is this 1D Golden Cross a bearish signal?The NZDUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Down on the 1D time-frame since the February 02 2023 High. The price almost reached the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, which has formed both previous Lower Highs.
As the pair completed a 1D Golden Cross today, traders might immediately think that this is a bullish signal, as theory suggests but in the past 18 months, both previous Golden Crosses have formed the Top.
At the same time, the 1D RSI completed a Double Top, similar to the December 27 2023 Top. As a result, we have strong evidence to sell this pair again, and target 0.57750 (Support 1).
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NZD/USD: Takeaways into ThursdayNZDUSD – Technical Overview
The overall pressure remains on the downside, with the market stalling on attempts to move up into the 0.6500 area. However, there are indications that the market may be attempting to establish a longer-term base. To alleviate medium-term downward pressure and support this prospect, a break back above 0.6500 is necessary. A monthly close below 0.5800 would intensify bearish price action.
R2: 0.6222 – 12 June high – Strong
R1: 0.6200 – Figure – Medium
S1: 0.6083 – 22 May low – Medium
S2: 0.6031 – 15 May low – Strong
NZDUSD – Fundamental Overview
The New Zealand Dollar has benefited from the risk-on sentiment following the latest soft CPI print from the US, which has renewed demand for risk-correlated assets. However, rallies have been hindered by more hawkish communications from the Fed. Key highlights on Thursday's calendar include German wholesale prices, Eurozone industrial production, US producer prices, US initial jobless claims, and some Fed speak.
Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
NZDUSD - Short Trade IdeaNZDUSD recently displaced to the downside but quickly made a recovery and displaced above the swing of the recent drop. There was buyside liquidity in the form of equal highs that were swept, but the candle bodies seem to be respecting the bearish Orderblock.
I am anticipating price now return to a discount, taking out the sellside liquidity below, into a weekly BISI.
- R2F
GBPNZD 1D MA50 rejection. Sell Signal.The GBPNZD pair recently made a Bearish Break-out as it broke below the Channel Up and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), introducing a new Channel Down pattern. On Monday we saw the latest rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been holding as Resistance since May 03.
As long as it holds, we expect the new Bearish Leg to start. The previous one stopped after a -2.75% decline, which currently gives a price tag at a little below 2.0300. However we will use a more modest Target, aiming at 2.04000 (a little above Support 2).
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EURNZD: Buy Opportunity
Well, as you can see, the price hit the daily bullish FVG in deep discount and cleared the sell-side liquidity. Here in the hourly chart, we know the market structure shifted and we are bullish now.
Now we are on the buy side of the curve so we expect the price to stay above the key level and respect the bullish PD Arrays, like Order block and FVG that you can see on the chart.
We need LTF confirmation for entry.
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🗓️06/06/2024
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