Get started

NFLX

NFLX: it was a good movie!The earnings season continues in the U.S. stock market. Netflix (NFLX) is down by 35% on a negative quarterly report. Netflix lost 200,000 subscribers in Q1. Subscriber growth stopped for the first time in 10 years! The company acknowledged that it was becoming harder and harder to grow its subscriber base in many markets. Also, the termination of streaming platforms in russia could have affected this. Closest competitor and streaming giant Disney (DIS) fell by 5.56% after the Netflix report. Fundamental analysis. Globally, we can already say that against the background of geopolitical instability, rising prices for energy and high inflation - user growth is not expected, because consumers will spend more money on basic products (food, real estate) than on additional luxury products. Also, the lockdown in China, as one of the world's leading manufacturers, does not help market to grow and the negative news about the worsening economic indicator does not inspire optimism at all. Chinese developer Evergrande is just the beginning of the chain. Chart analysis. On the chart we marked the accumulation and distribution zones. The trigger for Netflix's price rise was the HYPE (according to G.Trends data) around the newsmaker of the 2021 TV series Squid Game. The hype helped the big player sell stocks even faster. The low liquidity areas were a great support for the price. Note the increased volume of the first bottom. This is where traders and investors opened longs, expecting this to be the end of the fall. The second bottom liquidated traders who use any leverage, and the panic sell-offs now will only help the big player to buy more. The liquidity gaps areas: 1. $188-226 2. $389-422 Technically, these levels could give a good clue about the direction of the trend in the future. Right now the price is down by 73% from the ATH. Here the accumulation phase may begin again in the $200-350 range. Write in your comments, did the Squid Game HYPE accidentally become a NFLX highs (ATH)? Friends, press the "like" button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU. P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy. Always do your analysis before making a trade.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by Yuriy_Bishko
11
NFLX: Bill Ackman and knowing when to quitBy now, if you haven't heard about Netflix's results then you've surely been living under a rock! The key driver of the price decline was the first decline in subscribers in 10 years in Q1... -200k But the real story here isn't Netflix's decline, but the way a one Bill Ackman has responded to the price decline. If you don't know Bill Ackman, he's the famed owner and fund manager at Pershing Square Capital Management, who is notorious for his massive short on Herbalife (which got blown out of the water, but he was absolutely right to be short that hell hole of a company). Ackman started buying shares in Netflix back in late January, and built up a position to the tune of 3.1mm shares... In a letter to his clients, Ackman praised the company's "best-in-class management team" and on Twitter, the manager said he has long admired Netflix CEO Reed Hastings and the "remarkable company he and his team have built." But as we know, things change quickly in markets. Let me preface this by saying I don't think Pershing's Netflix bet was a particularly strong one. Many streaming services have been introduced increasing competition and diluting the customer pool and with budgets constrained by inflation, demand for luxuries was always going to subside. That's the economic case, but from a market focused and portfolio basis, there was always going to be turbulence as the Fed turns ever more hawkish - higher rates lead to cash flows in the future being discounted less as the working average cost of capital increases, which is BAD for high growth companies with large price:earnings multiples (see what's happened to Zoom, Roku, and more generally, all the pandemic related memestocks with massive PE ratios which have been nicely deflated over the last 12 months or so). But that doesn't take away from how Ackman handled his Netflix position. See, the central thesis was really predicated on positive subscriber growth... Netflix didn't achieve that this quarter... So Ackman dumped the position. That's what everyone should be doing, and it is how I look at risk and management of positions... If your central thesis changes, then change your position. Now to go further on why I don't think Netflix is a good buy, and why I disagree with Ackman that management is good, you simply have to take a look at their FX hedging strategy (or lack of). In 2021, they lost $280mm due to not hedging their FX exposure globally. For a company that operates in every country in the world, this is quite frankly insanity, and shows the management that they have too much concentration on subscriber growth and not enough on where they might be bleeding revenue, especially revenue that has a relatively easy fix. But again, this is something to learn from. Work out the core thesis as to why people will buy the stock - prioritise what matters. To me, the unhedged aspect is simply alluding to the management not looking at certain parts of the biz, which then asks the question, 'what else don't they have their eye on?' But if that subscriber growth had gone up, it wouldn't matter. Prioritise your themes. The key thing to remember as well, is that although this is a big monetary loss, the position was only about 4% of AUM at Pershing. Some people lose that and more in a day! So this is simply another day for good old Bill.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by FinkPro
Netflix clear path going forward In a nutshell for the non- analyst out there : I see a clear move down in Netflix fallowed by a correction and than a final move down. For the wave analyst: This is a clear wave A to the downside in 5 waves , now being in the 5th wave. After the completion of this move down, a correction Wave B will follow and then the final move C down usually equal in length with the first Wave A but much shallower , and not that steep as this wave A. Disclosure: I am not an investor in Netflix, this is my analysis and does not constitute financial advice. What's your take on $NFLX ?
NASDAQ:NFLX
by WavesInvesting
It look like the bridge in the Squid game..!All the gains in the past 50 months were wiped out..! No need for more explanation..! Try to be on the right side of the game is important..! What if Netflix goes down another 30-50% from here? Best, Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by Moshkelgosha
7
NFLX how can they guide higher? $267 next support?Last quarters guidance for growth was abysmal. This was BEFORE the Russian invasion of Ukraine, terminating service for 200,000 Russians. How many customers are lost in Ukraine? Before the "official" USA inflation numbers higher than expected. Before oil and gas surged squeezing the middle class in north America. These headwinds will continue to cause the consumer to begin cutting back on non-essentials. I think it's great NFLX will be cutting back on password sharing which might give them a small bump. Where will their growth come from? How can they curb inflation related expenses? The chart looks oversold but it was way oversold prior to the last ER too.
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by ShortSeller76
4
You May Be Having a Bad Day, but Not as Bad as Bill AckmanTrading stocks is tough, don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. Even the best have nightmare days. Today’s example would be billionaire Bill Ackman, CEO, and founder of Pershing Capital, a notorious hedge fund. With an MBA from Harvard Business school and 20 years in the business, he is a real pro. His fund generated approximately 70% returns in 2020 alone. This is remarkable considering this firm currently holds about $20B in assets under management. At the start of the year, Netflix was down significantly from its highs. Ackman took this opportunity to accumulate shares, approximately 3.1M shares worth over $1B. The stock pulled back for roughly+20% gains. He looked like a genius. However, yesterday after the bell, Netflix announced its quarter one earnings. It was not pretty. In this report, the company exceeded earnings expectations by 20% BUT it was their first-time instance of subscriber loss which was roughly 200,000. The company expected to add over 2M subscribers in this period. As a result, the company tanked roughly over 30%. Quick Math Invested = $1.1B (3.1M @~370) Current = $685M (3.1M @~222) Single Day Loss = $387M (3.1M @ 125) Total Loss = $435M So if you are having a bad day, you probably are not having as bad of a day as Bill Ackman, who has lost almost half a billion worth of his and his client’s money. This is a friendly reminder that even the pros have massive down days. Additionally, just because a security’s price has decreased significantly it doesn’t mean it can’t keep going down. #TrendIsYourFriend. Learn from other mistakes. On another note, Howard Hughes Corp. ($HHC) filed a 13D, an SEC form required for ownership beyond 5%, which revealed that Pershing Square Capital owns 25% of the company. Should be interesting how this stock plays out in the near future.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by howdydany
NETF*** - The Beginning Of The End?Netflix is one of the many companies that used the global pandemic to their benefit. With millions being in lockdown, there was only so much board games you could play before you switched on Netflix.. and chilled. When the pandemic hit in March 2020, Netflix saw a staggering growth of almost 100% in just a few months. In total, it went on to gain 142% from the start of the pandemic. As with all great series, it must come to an end, much like Netflix's uncontrollable growth. Recently Netflix took a massive hit when their estimated growth in subscribers felt below par. It was projected that they'll get 2.5million new subscribers, which fell below investors expectation of 6.93million subscribers which started the year off pretty badly. Coupled with price hikes and competition from other streaming platforms, Netflix was haemorrhaging subscribers. Recently, it took even a bigger hit. Investers were expecting Netflix to report another quarter of slowing subscribers growth but the results were even worse. Netflix lost 200k subscribers and it is expected that they'll be losing a lot more - perhaps millions. Technical Analysis From a technical standpoint, Netflix has started its downtrend and both fundamentals and technicals don't appear to show any signs of a reversal coming anytime soon. Would be a good idea to sit on the sidelines for now and see how far Netflix will drop this quarter. What do you guys think? Leave your comments below!
NASDAQ:NFLX
by WicktatorFX
96
Netflix post pandemic risk materialized in Amazon and DisneyThe news from Netflix this morning should not be a surprise to anyone, the company's executives had expressed two years ago during the peak of the pandemic that conditions were as good as they would get. With an increasing number of competitors coming under their skirt, Netflix is now reverting to the mean. It would appear the third generation rule might be validating itself, as Netflix was the innovator and paved the way for other well-capitalized and more diversified competitors such as #AmazonPrime and #DisneyPlus the latter which has been punished for pushing radical progressive policies. The key difference between Netflix and Disney is a multi-generational all-American brand, it is well entrenched in the global culture and has a massive war chest from diversified physical operations, cruise ships, music parks, and royalties across other entertainment segments. Amazon has clearly a massive advantage being the owner of the largest cloud service AWS which in fact is used by Netflix for their operations. In essence, you can argue that Netflix is subsidizing Amazon Prime via operating expenses at USD$6B. Amazon Prime asymmetric advantages combined with the largest capital reserves from the largest online store, placing Netflix at the mercy of AWS. In fact, we forecast that Netflix revenues and cash flows will continue to deteriorate to the point of no return within the next 24 months, placing itself as a target for Amazon.
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by edrodven
Netflix (NASDAQ: $NFLX) Nearing 2018 Correction Low! 🤑Netflix, Inc. provides entertainment services. It offers TV series, documentaries, and feature films across various genres and languages. The company provides members the ability to receive streaming content through a host of Internet-connected devices, including TVs, digital video players, television set-top boxes, and mobile devices. It also provides DVDs-by-mail membership services. The company has approximately 204 million paid members in 190 countries. Netflix, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Los Gatos, California.
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by RedHotStocks
3
Ignore the Noise... Recognize a Buying OpportunityAt the end of the day as long as this stays above 233.68 its a Buy. - Bigger picture is NFLX can complete a Running Flat C wave if it stays above 233.68 (i.e. does not retrace more than 100% of wave B - The 5 count of wave C has formed a wolfe wave with the equilibrium point slightly above where it looks like it will open today (i.e. supply = demand near 272) - look for a bounce at open to test the equilibrium level: If it breaks above it expect a run further to try and re-enter the wolfe channel [ Initial target 307 by May 2nd ] If initial target is reached expect that momentum to carry it higher to test upper channel [ Intermediate Target 335 by May 24 ] A breakout from wolfe channel will give it the setup to run Target = 475 by July 22nd . If this materializes I do not expect it to complete gap fill to 500s without undergoing a minor correction or a least consolidation first. *** If NFLX has a sustained break below 233.68 it opens up a short opportunity - will re-eval. based on how it behaves in the 234-272 range. But subscribers, I assure you, have nothing to do with this. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. Have a blessed day, The Alpinist
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by JerryManders
1
NFLX Potential for Bearish Reversal | 20th April 2022Price is moving nearer to the pivot level. We can expect a potential for bearish reversal from sell entry level of 351.85 which is in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection towards the take profit level of 342.44 which is in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is further supported by price trading below the Ichimoku cloud indicator Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by Rockqet