Let's get into some stock trades #3- NetflixNetflix has been chopping for more than a year now and consolidating really hard, but with a clear emphasis on the upside. It's still showing signs of strength and could move much higher pretty soon given that it's been in this range for 14 months. Don't know much about the financials of Netflix but I do know it's growing and is one of those companies that has a huge brand and is like many other companies more of a network than a company.
The path I've drawn isn't the path I think it will follow, but the path that it might follow if it wants to create more pain for all those that are long right now.
NFLX
NFLX ShortEntry price: 559-569$
Target price: 502-510$
Keltner Channel: the price crossed the upper boundary.
RSI: indicator crossed 70 level, the market is overbought. Therefore, the bearish movement might occur.
Conclusions: RSI and Keltner Channels suggest the trend retracement. The short position is recommended after the price rejects from the resistance level.
no financial advice
NFLX H16:PT BULLS 700USD BUY/HOLD(SL/TP)(STOCKS)(NEW)Why get subbed to me on Tradingview?
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-before/after analysis
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NFLX H16:PT BULLS 700USD BUY/HOLD(SL/TP)(STOCKS)(NEW)
IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own
due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage.
🔸 Summary and potential trade setup
::: NFLX 16hour chart review and outlook
::: revised/updated oultook
::: final TP BULLS is 700 USD
::: 25%+ upside remains
::: going into JULY strong chart
::: July is a strong month for TECH
::: breaking out of range
::: updated/revised outlook
::: TP BULLS is 700 USD / up to 35% upside
::: BUY IT and get paid / accumulate
::: expecting break out this week
::: runaway BULLS gap as well
::: recommended strategy: BUY HOLD IT
::: and accumulate on DIPS
::: TP BULLS is 700 USD
::: BUY/HOLD swing trade setup
::: DO NOT expect overnight gains
::: This is stock market
:::Not casino in Macau
🔸 Supply/Demand Zones
. N/A
RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Crypto, Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
$NFLX - Weekly BreakoutNFLX, similarly to AMZN, likes to consolidate for long periods of time prior to large explosive moves.
If you're still risk on, keep Netflix on your radar. It's nearing a breakout on the weekly timeframe from a consolidation period just over a year in duration. Similar weekly breakouts of clean patterns would be ADBE and HD with their 1W Bull Flags leading to 33% and 21% gains on equity within the following 2 months AFTER breaking out.
As of right now there's UOA on $570 and $575 calls expiring next week.
This one is on high watch for me going into next week.
Warwick Gorman
OptionsSwing Analyst
$AFRM $NVDA $AAPL $NFLX I OptionsSwing WatchlistAFRM 1D I Just as expected AFRM broke from an inverse H&S and saw a 40%+ move last week after announcing a new partnership with Amazon on Friday.
NVDA 1D I We caught a near 10% move on NVDA last week after breaking out from ATH. Semiconductor stocks showed above average strength last week.
AAPL 1D I AAPL average price target is $165. After reporting earnings AAPL has been consolidating in a triangle. Waiting for a breakout above $150.
NFLX 1D I Last Friday we picked up some unusual activity betting on NFLX $565c 09/03. Setting alerts on a breakout above the $560-$561 price level.
NFLX: Triple Top Alert From the daily chart, looking at the ever strong Resistance of $557 Supply level that has been rejected more than 5 times since IPO, indicates that NFLX might be rejected once again. At 1HR chart, we can also see a triple top rejection at $556/$557 during the day. RSI is highly oversold. Expecting a downwards rejection on the strong resistance. However, if Nasdaq is performing well, this could be an opportunity of breaking out. Monitor closely on the next candle volume and price action. Nasdaq strong push is essential.
Potential Breakout in FANG Towards 8800Trend Analysis
The main view of this trade idea is on the 4-Hour Chart. The index FANG (FNG1!) has been in a rangebound price movement after hitting resistance around the 7400 price level in mid February 2021. FANG held support at 6050 and made a second attempt to break above 7400 in mid July. After that failure the index quickly found some support around 6800 and is heading towards that 7400 resistance level. Expectations are for a break higher in FANG, with that target being 8800.
Technical Indicators
FANG is currently above its short (25-MA), medium (75-MA) and long (200-MA) fractal moving averages. The RSI is above 50 with the KST in a positive zone. Also over multiple other timeframes, the technical indicators are signaling a buy.
Recommendation
The recommendation will be to go long at market. Stop loss will be set around the 6000 price level and a target of 8800. This produces a risk-reward ratio of 1.36.
Disclaimer
The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time publishing, I have a position in FNG1!.
$NFLX | WEEKLY WATCHLISTAnother frustrating stock since around Summer of 2020 with major consolidation. This is a sleeping giant, similar to what happened to $NVDA. Again, time is your friend here but I expect this wedge to break for upside continuation. My fractal path is outlined in light blue. Upside target is $600+.
Netflix Is Just Chilling...For Now!Netflix is chilling at the moment and has been moving sideways now for a year now.
We saw some fast growth in their share value following the peak of the pandemic,
but the buyers have not been able to keep up the momentum.
Consolidation periods usually follow strong trends but if the overall strength of the
stock is still there, then price should be able to continue the trend sooner or later
The last consolidation period lasted for two years but we may not have to wait that
long this time but either way, we will only take action if price breaks above the
all-time high at $593.
Price is also hovering around the $500 round number, which is a psychological level
of support & resistance.
As the overall trend is bullish, we are anticipating a breakout to the upside before
considering opening up any positions.
This is quite an expensive stock, so it may not be suitable for all investors, but we
cover other good-looking opportunities in our posts.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
NFLX ANALYSIS 13.08.2021Hello Traders, here is a full analysis for this asset. The entry will be taken only, if all rules of your trading plan are satisfied.
Therefore I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if all of your rules are satisfied.
Leave your thoughts in the comment section, I will reply to every single one of them.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Trading Plan for NFLX. Breakout, correction, and setup.Hi Guys, today we will share our view on NFLX. We think its an interesting chart due to the massive correction we can observe since July 2020
What is our plan? First of all, we want to observe a breakout. We are not interested in trading inside the current range. The level we will use to confirm the breakout is 600. IF the price reaches that level, we will consider that its time to look for the retest
What is a retest? Also known as Throwback in bullish impulses or Pullback on bearish impulses. It's the correction that happens after the price breaks a relevant level or structure. The small red arrow above the structure is our expected Throwback.
Great, what can I do with that?
Our plan is to wait for a clear throwback (between 7 to 15 days). IF that happens, we will use that structure to execute pending orders above (horizontal green line), and we will define our stop loss below the throwback—final Target on the 2nd fibo extension. (we defined this by using the previous impulse).
Risk
We will be risking between 1 to 2% of our trading Capita. (NEVER RISKED MORE)
What happens if the price doesn't do that?
We don't trade...
What happens if the price executes your order and then goes straight to your stop loss?
We have a stop loss...
Thanks for reading!
NFLX D1:PT BULLS 700USD BUY/HOLD(SL/TP)(STOCKS)(NEW)Why get subbed to me on Tradingview?
-TOP author on TradingView
-2000+ ideas published
-15+ years experience in markets
-Professional chart break downs
-Supply/Demand Zones
-TD9 counts / combo review
-Key S/R levels
-No junk on my charts
-Frequent updates
-Covering FX/crypto/US stocks
-before/after analysis
-24/7 uptime so constant updates
🎁Please hit the like button and
🎁Leave a comment to support our team!
NFLX D1:PT BULLS 700USD BUY/HOLD(SL/TP)(STOCKS)(NEW)
IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own
due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage.
🔸 Summary and potential trade setup
::: NFLX daily chart review and outlook
::: revised/updated oultook
::: final TP BULLS is 700 USD
::: 25%+ upside remains
::: going into JULY strong chart
::: July is a strong month for TECH
::: breaking out of range
::: updated/revised outlook
::: TP BULLS is 700 USD / up to 50% upside
::: BUY IT and get paid / accumulate
::: expecting break out this week
::: runaway BULLS gap as well
::: recommended strategy: BUY HOLD IT
::: and accumulate on DIPS
::: TP BULLS is 700 USD
::: BUY/HOLD swing trade setup
::: DO NOT expect overnight gains
::: This is stock market
:::Not casino in Macau
🔸 Supply/Demand Zones
. N/A
RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Crypto, Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
NETFLIX (NFLX): Can Fall Out Of The Consolidation NowTraders, Netflix has been running inside a consolidation range for a long time now and the close of this month can give us a good indication on the downward breakout of this consolidation. Expected targets based on FCP analysis are on the chart.
Rules:
1. Never trade too much
2. Never trade without a confirmation
3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too
✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums.
✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis
✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions.
Take care and trade well
-Vik
____________________________________________________
📌 DISCLAIMER
The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only.
Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions.
____________________________________________________
NETFLIX: The End Of The GROWTH Story?
While many of you might be surprised to see anyone being bearish biased on NETFLIX of all things, I say that my bias has some solid basis underneath it
Firstly, let's deal with the elephant in the room: the whole market is a massive bubble with SPY gaining more than 100% from the Lows of the COVID crash, and NETFLIX gained 104%
One might say that gaining 104% in less than a year is a spectacular achievement, however, considering the fact that the company grew its business massively since the beginning of the lockdowns, outperforming the market by a mere 4% is a sign that the investors are beginning to get skeptical about the future growth, and that is the KEY
You see, all the tech stocks are a growth story, not the value story, and by the virtue of being a growth stock NTFLX is wildly overpriced with the P/E standing at 64, while the SPY benchmark P/E stands at 34 which means that NETFLIX is trading at a 100% premium to the market and that given that SPY is now full of tech growth stocks itself which skews the P/E to the upside, while also benefiting from the passive ETF flows which have determined the rapid market growth after 2008 that outpaced the GDP growth by a factor of 5
All of the above means that the moment Netflix stops being considered a growth story it will start falling to at least cover the gap with the SPY P/E and if it gets kicked out of the index it will lose all the passive inflows and the price will halve again.
So am I convinced that the Netflix growth is over? Let's take a look at the data:
Here is an extract from the LA Times article on the company:
«The streaming giant added a mere 1.5 million paying members globally in the second quarter, which is down 85% from the same period last year when it reported 10.1 million subscriber additions. The company also added 61% fewer subscribers than it did in the first quarter when it missed projections with 3.98 million new accounts. In the U.S. and Canada, Netflix lost about 430,000 paid memberships in the second quarter»
It means that the company gained almost all of the potential subscribers during the lockdowns, that it would have been gaining for years otherwise, as those who could/wanted to subscribe did so, and the pool of those that haven’t yet is relatively small.
Also, NETFLIX is finally losing its monopoly, which once brought fat margins, as the Disney+, HBO Max, and other players are gaining market share breathing down the company’s neck, which not only adds downward pressure to the subscription price but also increases the cost of the content, as the competition for quality scripts and actors drives the prices higher
That puts Netflix- once a king reigning supreme between the rock and the hard place, fighting for the market that is not growing as fast anymore while having to Lower the subscription prices and paying more for the content simultaneously.
And Unlike Google, Amazon, or Apple that have secured near-monopoly positions, tying their customers to the ecosystems and capitalizing on the Network effect, while having aces up their sleeves like championing General purpose AI or being on the cutting edge of quantum computing, Netflix has nothing to offer outside of their small niche and what is more important, the company’s product is easily replaceable and is not essential or even unique anymore.
Summing up, while I am not saying that the stock will collapse tomorrow when the crash comes, all everything falls, NETFLIX might be the one that never recovers.
SHORT TRADE SUGGESTION: buy PUT options that are 6 months and 1 year from now at the strikes that are at -50% of the current price and keep rolling the position with time.
You might get 20:1 or even 50:1 returns if you catch the crash!
Please, support my drawings with BIG LIKE
NFLX Low Risk Short PositionNFLX has been trading in a range for many months, as we can see by this weekly chart here:
Stochastics on the daily chart are showing it as heavily overbought, with an RSI of about 85, likely in anticipation of earnings which come out in 6 days. Historically, NFLX sells off about 80% of the time post earnings, usually quite steeply, with an average sell-off of between $50-60 dollars within the week that follows earnings.
Here's a daily chart with stochastics visible:
Barring a few temporary outlying moves to the outer extremities of its range, I believe NFLX will either:
1) Push up towards and then reject at the $566 level and then retrace back down towards $515.00 post earnings.
2) Falter post earnings and retrace to more "typical" RSI and stochastic levels prior to earning hitting.
3) (Hopefully not) push outside its trading range (difficult to imagine this scenario actually happening) and form new highs above its existing range.
I am currently in an Iron Condor on NFLX with 570 and 490 short strikes. It is leaning bearish at the moment, but a move back down downwards 515 and a crush of implied volatility will substantially help my position. I believe both are likely to happen in the current market environment.
--------------
If you were to enter NFLX short, you might consider it around the $566 level, assuming it pushes that high. You could accomplish this with a call credit spread which would give you the benefit of IV crush, assuming volatility decreases (which it would, if the price fell off steeply.)
You could also take a bearish debit spread, but that will struggle with volatility collapse as it's a BTO position.
-------------
Whatever happens, I'll be curious to watch NFLX as it develops. I do not think it's current price behavior is sustainable.
NFLX 1W Is the price of $860 per share real in the near future?Today, we will write down our expectations regarding the value of Netflix shares in the future, as well as a little bit tackle of the history of the company's development.
If you love reading business literature to inspire yourself for future achievements, then we strongly recommend that you read the story of "getting on your feet" once a small company Netflix that has been renting and selling VSH cassettes and DVDs by mail since 1997.
One year after founding, the owners stopped selling VSH and DVDs to focus on the initial idea of renting discs and cassettes.
Their entire history is based on the "super flexibility" of executives who sensed the future trend of their market and acted ahead of the curve.
Here's an example of how a small then Netflix beat the giant of their segment — Blockbuster
The heyday of Blockbuster dates back to 2004, when the company employed about 60 thousand people, and the company owned 9 thousand points of rent and stores. In the late 2000s, Blockbuster faced strong competition from online video service Netflix and filed for bankruptcy in 2010.
Meanwhile, Netflix has expanded its business since 2007 by introducing online media streaming, while not closing the DVD and Blu-ray rentals.
Since 2010, the company has expanded from the United States and expanded internationally.
And since 2013, Netflix has entered the industry of its own content with the debut of its first series.
Now, there are plenty of competitors to Netflix, and we all know them and use their services, but the price of NFLX shares confirms their strength in the market.
If you narrow the chart, you will see that the NFLX share price has been moving in a dynamic channel upward since 2004.
In 2012, the share price bounced off the lower boundary of the channel and t he $8 mark and began an upward trend that continues to this day.
In February-March 2020, when the entire market fell by 30-35%, or even more, NFLX shares fell in value only by -26%
However, the CoviD crisis was good for the company. Everyone sitted home and bought subscriptions to their services, and Netflix's stock doubled.
In fact, for the last 12 months, the price of NFLX shares has been in consolidation in the corridor of $475-575
Trading volumes are decreasing, which means that in the near future, the price will have a strong impulse.
There is a high probability that the momentum will be up , the price will break up and consolidate above $575 , and the next target from above will be $860 per NFLX share.
An alternative scenario is a fall in the NFLX price to the $275-325 zone. This scenario will activate when the price breaks and consolidates below $475 , and the first bell that it is worth refraining from longs will be the price approaching $500.
NFLX H8:PT BULLS 650USD BUY/HOLD(SL/TP)(STOCKS)(NEW)Why get subbed to me on Tradingview?
-TOP author on TradingView
-15+ years experience in markets
-Professional chart break downs
-Supply/Demand Zones
-TD9 counts / combo review
-Key S/R levels
-No junk on my charts
-Frequent updates
-Covering FX/crypto/US stocks
-24/7 uptime so constant updates
NFLX H8:PT BULLS 650USD BUY/HOLD(SL/TP)(STOCKS)(NEW)
IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own
due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage.
click play to recap original setup.
🔸 Summary and potential trade setup
::: NFLX 8hour chart review and outlook
::: revised/updated oultook
::: going into JULY strong chart
::: July is a strong month for TECH
::: breaking out of range
::: updated/revised outlook
::: TP BULLS is 650 USD +20%
::: BUY IT and get paid
::: expecting break down this week
::: runaway BULLS gap as well
::: recommended strategy: BUY HOLD IT
::: TP BULLS is 650 USD
::: BUY/HOLD setup
::: DO NOT expect overnight gains
::: This is stock market
:::Not casino in Macau
🔸 Supply/Demand Zones
. N/A
RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Crypto, Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.