NFLX long trend analysisStarted by identifying a month long channel that started forming mid March.
Support seems consistent with 2 contact points.
Identified levels:
L365, L412, L444.44 :)
Expecting rejection from L412 and trend support on 27 April, followed by a rise to L444.44 by 1st of May.
Planning to enter after confirmaion of bounce (28 May)
SL of 1700p (2% risk @ 8000 balance = 0.09 LOT size)
TP of 5106p
Risk/Reward ratio of 3
PROs:
L412 and trendline
No MACD Divergence
CONs:
Possible triple top with neckline @ L412. Will watch for breach.
Fundamentals:
Lockdown measures still in place
Nflxlong
4.16.2020 Netflix showing significant Bearish divergence + ATHIncreasing competition
Overbought
Bulls running out of steam
April 21st Q1 earnings possibly already priced in
60mm USA subscribers / 130mm USA families = 46% of USA Families which means increasing difficulty in obtaining new subscribers.
Little new content due to COVID19 shutdown.
Short
-NFA
NFLXIf if holds 370 area, my key price interest is clearing 383. If above, will take a small bullish trade up to 390 area for 7-10 points.
If it rejects 383, I think it is possible we head back down to 363 area demand to pick up some more buyers.
So above 383 = bullish
Below 383 will look for retrace down to 363
NFLX Asceding Triangle + Cypher Pattern (Possible Breakout?)MONTHLY CHART
As we can see in the monthly chart the price of Netflix forming an ascending triangle and before the ascending triangle there was a strong uptrend so i estimate that in some point in the future will be a breakout to the upside.
The ascending triangle is formed with the trend line that formed from 2018 and act as a support and the resistance line around 390$.
WEEKLY CHART
As we can see in the weekly chart we can see that there is a possibility of the creation of a cypher pattern that is an indication of a bullish movement in the future. To be valid the price has to reach around the resistance line and then fall at around 290$ and bounce back at the support trend line in the ascending triangle. Then i can think that the price it will bounce some fib levels of the CD retracements move sideways and lead to the breakout of the triangle.
DAILY CHART / BUTTERFLY PATTERNS
We can see the form of a bullish butterfly with the green that is completed and then the form of a bearish butterfly pattern that is yet to complete. Ultimately as the price fall and then retrace around in the D point close to support line. That is also a sign that validates the bullish cypher pattern because, the D point of the bearish butterfly is the C point of the cypher pattern. So as the price move to D point of the bearish butterfly it has to fall and it will fall and hopefully reach the trend line that acts as support line in the triangle.
DAILY CHART / HARMONIC PATTERNS
We see how this three patterns connection and how the three of them validate the prediction of the price move
With the orange line is a prediction of where the price will go in the future, just my opinion.
NFLX & Chill Entries!! In the money!Before entering a trade three types of analysis should be performed.
Fundamental Analysis = The study of financial statements and economic news. (Overall Trend)
Technical Analysis = The study of chart history. (Entry & Exit Strategies)
Sentimental Analysis = The study of the markets current psychology and traders psychology.(Instinct)
After performing the three analysis below are my results:
NASDAQ:NFLX
Fundamental Analysis = LONG-TERM (BUYING)
Technical Analysis = SHORT-TERM (SELLING)
Sentimental Analysis = Market fears currently higher than confidence.
To better explain:
This means that right now momentum is headed downwards technically but the overall trend is up fundamentally.
So since we know the overall trend is upwards but we are currently headed downwards it creates the perfect timing to use our Fibonacci Retracement tool. A tool that is used to find important entry and exit levels in a trending market. Which is traditionally applied to the low & high of a trend. Here were my results:
Classic Head & Shoulders pattern shown with the three pink circles on chart.
Head & Shoulders on a uptrend = Bearish Reversal at Neckline of $256.65.
As you can see in the chart above we have already retraced with a spike below the 23.6% level at $340.31. Markets are still showing downwards momentum that is headed towards the 38.2% level - 50% level.
MY SUGGESTION:
Place LONG orders totaling anywhere from 1-5% of your total trading capital on each retracement level below:
23.6% = $361.01 (BUY)
38.2% = $340.31 (BUY)
50.0% = $323.58 (Great trade opportunity) (BUY)
61.8% = $306.85 (What i consider the PERFECT IDEAL TRADE) (BUY)
78.6% = $283.02 (ABSOLUTE BARGAIN!!) (BUY)
Take profit: $393.52 at the previous ATH . (All Time High) Be patient and trust the process. This monster of a tech stock will most definitely return to break more records in the upcoming months when the continuation wave arrives and aligns with the fundamentals.
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NFLX Why am I in no rush to buy Netflix.Many analysts say that now is the best time to invest in some stocks. For example, Netflix. But according to Elliott’s theory, I will invest in stocks when the price is around $ 250 per share. I believe that the price will reach this level by the end of summer
NFLX - I've officially lost it - Why I'm short $NFLXA word of advice because I think this idea is straight up crazy. I'm not sure I'd trade this myself, but if I was bullish on netflix - like 90% of the market appears to be, I'd maybe reduce the size of my position.
So...$NFLX has practically every reason under the sun to go up today:
NASDAQ premarket is way up as is the rest of the market futures.
Netflix crushed their subscriber targets increasing global streaming subscribers by 20% YoY
Earnings per share crushed analyst estimates of $.53 taking in $1.30/share
Quarter sales topped estimates of $5.45B taking in $5.47B
Heck, even average revenue per subscriber was up an extra 9%
With all those glittery stats hitting the news wire yesterday, who in their right mind would consider shorting Netflix?!
The daddie of hacks...that's who...and even I think I might be crazy. Post market, the stock is sitting at $344 and we're working our way through the morning premarket session. Whether that price level holds is doubtful. (Edit: it's already pulled back to $341-2)
So you might ask me, 'Hacky, what's got your knickers in a bunch? NFLX is printing money!' To which I would respond, 'That's what they want you to think.'
Here's what has me thinking something about NFLX doesn't smell right:
NFLX has been dropping at the open of almost every trading session for the last week during the heaviest volume periods. Why? My guess is institutional investors are liquidating some of their positions. Let's face it, earnings surprises really aren't all that surprising with the price action leading up to them. What is surprising is the higher than usual volume that has been acting like an anchor on NFLX's stock price. With so much bullish sentiment and high expectations from earnings - why has the stock gone sideways or even down the last few days???? With this stellar outlook confirmed, John Q. Public isn't going to sell netflix, if anything, you'd expect a stampede of buyers to flood the market - and that's just the stampede the institutions are waiting for to make some big shifts in their positions.
February is looking rather dismal for the market at large, and let's face it - we're overdue for at least a small correction. At the top of that list is the NASDAQ - gaining 38% last year and NFLX practically in sync. The institutions have been selling off Netflix at the start of each session, and it's weighed on the price - which slowly recovered through the late morning and afternoon session each day. Every 'major' time period (9:30-10, 3:30-4) for the last few days has seen big selling pressure or traded sideways. Why during those time periods? Because that's when the institutions can mask their activities.
What I think will happen:
1) NFLX will gap up - how big of a gap is uncertain. Likely between $342-347 would be my best guess.
2) Here comes the head fake and get ready for the whip saw. I think it's highly likely we hit $355-360 at the outset (in the first 5 minutes of trading possibly)...BUT, it'll be short lived. The institutions will then step in and wreck house. We'll see a retracement back down and fill the gap before the stock makes a slight rally in the afternoon session after bouncing off support in the $338 area. Expect the stock to settle back close to where it opens today.
How I'll play it:
1) I'll watch the first minute of the trading day from the sidelines and watch relative volume. If the volume is lower than usual but price is rising, the market is being driven by the fish. I'll likely get a couple calls if the stock shows good momentum and sell them in the $358 range, just prior to completing the gap fill at $360.
2) The volume will be a key indicator - if it's down, and it's obvious the institutions are on the sidelines - what are they waiting for? They're waiting on the price to rise so they can get a premium when the sell off their positions. The second the price gaps get thick to the downside and sell volume ramps up, any long positions are immediately reversed to shorts....expect to ride the stock back down to the $338 level. If that level falls, the uptrend channel going back to september is the next big support in the $320 range. From there what happens likely depends on the market at large. If we see the pullback in february that I think we will, it'd be time to cash in the NASDAQ positions.