Get started

Nfp

GBP/USD Pullback expected before reaching 1.24Analysis of GBP/USD: The GBP/USD is on the rise towards the 1.2400 level to conclude a trading week that has seen the pair mostly fluctuate around the averages. After the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data came in well below expectations, the British Pound (GBP) has seen a 1.6% increase from Friday's opening bids near 1.2190, and the GBP/USD is up almost 2.5% from the week's lows of 1.2095. US Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 150,000 in October versus the forecast of 180,000. The US NFP figures fell short of expectations, marking the worst headline figure in nearly three years. The US added 150,000 new jobs in October, missing the market forecast of 180,000 and well below September's figure, which was revised downward from the initial print of 336,000. The failure to meet US employment targets is dragging the US Dollar (USD) lower across the market as investors shift towards risk assets, despite the deteriorating US labor data, which is counterintuitively inspiring investors to move out of safe havens. Weaker US economic data could lead the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reconsider interest rate decisions, as investors look for signs that the Fed may accelerate the program of potential rate cuts. Technical Outlook for GBP/USD: The Sterling's ascent driven by the NFP data is pushing the GBP/USD straight through the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), aiming directly for the 1.2400 level and preparing to challenge the 200-day SMA, which is currently moving sideways from 1.2435. GBP/USD has recently oscillated between 1.2300 and 1.2100, and a bearish fallback would see the pair sliding towards multi-month lows around the 1.2000 major level. I personally expect a pullback to around 1.2160, where the price could then reverse to head towards 1.24. Let me know your thoughts, and happy trading to all from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
5
XAUUSD heading towards 2100 - NFP and Middle East conflict!Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the United States increased by 150,000 units in October, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the United States last Friday. This figure was below market expectations, which anticipated 180,000 new hires. The September increase, initially recorded at 336,000, was subsequently revised downward to 297,000. During the same period, the unemployment rate inched up from 3.8% to 3.9%, while the labor force participation rate declined from 62.8% to 62.7%. Annual wage inflation, measured by the change in average hourly wages, eased to 4.1% from 4.3%. In response to these data, the US Dollar faced significant downward pressure. At the time of writing, the US Dollar index was down 0.6% at 105.55. Evaluating the October employment report, FXStreet analyst Yohay Elam commented: "The data is weak enough to reduce the likelihood of a rate hike, cementing the end of the tightening cycle. This is unfavorable for the US Dollar. The data is neither too weak to push investors into the Greenback nor too cold to diminish profits. For stocks, it's the perfect situation: the economy is not too strong to drive rate hikes, nor too weak to reduce profits. As for gold, the decline in Treasury yields is an advantage, but events in the Middle East are also being observed. Additionally, in the case of gold, an important level at 2010 is noted, which, if breached, could push the price toward 2100. Also, pay attention to the support zone at the 1998 level. Let me know what you think, comment, and leave a like. I wish everyone successful trading, greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
4
USD/CAD steady ahead of Canada, US job reportsThe Canadian dollar is showing little movement on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3740, up 0.03%. The week wraps up with US and Canadian employment reports, which could mean volatility from the Canadian dollar during the North American session. The US releases nonfarm payrolls, which had a massive September and crushed expectations with a gain of 336,000. The markets are projecting a modest gain for October, with a market consensus of 170,000. The ADP Employment Change report, which isn’t considered a reliable gauge for nonfarm payrolls but is still closely watched, posted a weak gain of 113,000 in October, well below the market consensus of 150,000 and following the September reading of 89,000. Will nonfarm payrolls follow suit or will we see another hot release? The US dollar has declined against the majors since the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates for a second straight time. Fed Chair Powell tried to sound hawkish and reiterated that rate hikes remain on the table, but the markets are in a dovish mood and believe that rates may have peaked. If the nonfarm employment release follows ADP and misses expectations, it would likely mean the end of the current tightening cycle and I would expect the US dollar to decline after the release. Conversely, a strong non-farm payrolls report would support the Fed's stance that rate hikes remain on the table and would likely translate into strong gains for the US dollar following the release. The Fed will also be keeping an eye on wage growth, a driver of inflation. Wages rose 0.2% m/m in September and the market estimate for October stands at 0.3%. On an annualized basis, wage growth is expected to ease to 4.0% in October, down from 4.2% in September. Canada's employment is projected to ease to 22,500 in October, compared to 63,800 in September, which marked an eight-month high. The labour market has remained strong despite the Bank of Canada's aggressive tightening, and a weak employment reading would boost the case for another pause from the BoC and could weigh on the Canadian dollar. 1.3730 is a weak support level. Below, there is support at 1.3660 There is resistance at 1.3805 and 1.3950
by OANDA
Strifor || XAGUSD-NFPPreferred direction: SELL Comment: As we said earlier about gold, the situation for metals in general is more inclined to sell than to buy. Silver is no exception. At the moment, before the non-farm, the price of the metal is pressing towards the support level of 22.66582 and most likely, after a slight increase, the instrument will finally break through this support and the sellers’ target will lie in the support area at 21.80. Thank you for like and share your views!
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by Strifor
7
USD Index: Thoughts and Analysis pre-NFP Today's focus: USDX Pattern – Range /Distribution? Support – 105.50 - 106 Resistance – 106.75 - 107.05 Hi, and thanks for checking out today's update. Today, we are looking at the USDX on the daily chart. Today, we have run over the USDX as price continues to trade range-bound after a choppy week and mixed influences. The FOMC failed to boost the USD after rates remained on hold, and comments pushed it lower on fears we could contnue to see further holds. With this in mind, we have started to look at the possibility of distribution creeping in. Could we see a new move lower to test or break support? Could a miss in today's NFP data add to the USD woes and contnue to push seller momentum in the short term? Be wary; this could also be a consolidation, and if we did see a new move through resistance, this could set up a new bullish continuation and cancel out any ideas of distribution. US Employment data is due at 8:30 a.m. EST today. Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:USDXShort
by Eightcap
EURUSD Pullback to 1.055 and Then Heading to 1.10!The analysis of the EUR/USD performance indicates a consolidation of weekly gains above the 1.0600 level in the early hours of Friday in Europe. This consolidation is partly attributed to the recent weakness of the US dollar and US Treasury bond yields. The market is eagerly awaiting the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for a fresh directional impetus. The rally of the EUR/USD pair encountered a barrier after reaching the 1.0667 level but still holds above the key support level of 1.0600 in the early Asian session on Friday. A decrease in US Treasury bond yields and the correction of the US dollar (USD) provide some support to the pair. The 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.66%, the lowest level since October 13. On the Federal Reserve (Fed) front, markets anticipate that the interest rate hiking cycle is already over. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized the need for tight financial conditions to prevent further rate hikes. Powell added that the central bank would take action to bring inflation back to the 2% target, but policy decisions will remain highly data-dependent. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis-point (bps) rate increase in the December meeting remains low at around 20%, putting additional pressure on the US dollar. In the US economic context, weekly Initial Jobless Claims have increased to the highest level in seven weeks, rising to 217,000 from the previous reading of 212,000, exceeding the estimated 210,000. Meanwhile, Unit Labor Costs for the third quarter have decreased by 0.8% compared to a previous rise of 2.2%, falling short of expectations. On the Euro front, the final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, as calculated by HCOB, dropped to 43.1 in October from September's 43.4, exceeding the initial estimate of 43.0. A reading below 50 indicates a contraction in activity. With Manufacturing PMIs in France, Italy, and Spain plummeting, and Germany already indicating a severe recession, it's evident that the sector will contract in each of these nations in the current quarter, which may limit the upside potential for the Euro and act as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair. Looking ahead, market participants will be monitoring the Eurozone Unemployment Rate and US employment data, including Nonfarm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings. Additionally, the US ISM Services PMI will be released later on Friday. These data could provide a clear direction for the EUR/USD pair. This analysis aims to highlight the strong bullish sentiment in the H4 timeframe, although I am personally waiting for a retracement around the 1.0560 level before considering long entries. We will see if the NFP report will bring the market down to gather liquidity before a new bullish momentum. Please comment and leave a like to support our work. Greetings and happy trading to all from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
8
USDCAD at Range ResistanceOverview USDCAD is at a key technical resistance level. Price may break higher or start ranging. The Details USDCAD is potentially ranging between the 1.30 and 1.40 price handles. Price is currently testing the range resistance area. Fundamental analysis suggests a potential move higher. This week's news may determine if the resistance holds, though. Things to Consider The Federal Reserve is not expected to raise rates this week, but they could. An unexpected rate hike by the Fed may push the price above the range resistance. It is also NFP and Canadian unemployment on Friday. These events may determine if the technical resistance holds or not. USDCAD may have a technical bearish move away from the range resistance and attempt to move higher in the coming days or weeks.
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
BluetonaFX - USDJPY Post-NFP Market ReportHi Traders! The NFP announcement was released earlier today, and it came as a shock to the market. The number came in at a staggering 336K, which is almost double the expected number of 171K. With the payrolls number coming out so strongly, this is a sign that the US economy is still strong, and the high demand for the US dollar is expected to continue in the near future. This now puts huge pressure back on the JPY, and the Bank of Japan will surely have to intervene to avoid further Yen weakness. On a technical level, the level to look out for on the USDJPY is 150.000; the market has already reached it this week, and traders will be looking for another test at this level to see if the market can break above it. A break and a close of 150.000, and the only key level above it is the apex level at 151.946, and a break of that, and we will be in record-breaking territory. Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
Long
by BluetonaFX
Gold-XAUUSD Update and NFP Forecast : What’s Happening with GoldI believe there could be a good opportunity to buy Gold-XAUUSD if it rises above $1796, while implementing sound risk management by setting a stop-loss just below $1796. Our target price could be in the range of $1831 to $1845. If the price breaks this range then we can aim to $1885, then we may look for selling and targeting a level closer to $1805 or potentially even lower. If the downward trend continues, we can aim for prices below $1796 or continue riding the trend. It's crucial to stay focused and risk management when trading.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Gravity-Traders-Academy
GBP/USD Consolidates Gains Ahead of Key US NFP ReportGBP/USD Consolidates Gains Ahead of Key US NFP Report The GBP/USD pair is currently treading water in the Asian session, consolidating its recent robust recovery from the 1.2035 area, which marked its lowest level since March 16 earlier this week. With traders on the sidelines, the focus is firmly on the impending release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, a pivotal event that could significantly influence market sentiment and currency movements. NFP's Influence on Market Expectations The NFP report, widely watched by investors, carries significant weight in shaping expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) future interest rate decisions. The outcome of this report is expected to impact the US Dollar (USD) and provide fresh direction to the GBP/USD pair. Forecasts suggest that the US economy likely added 170,000 jobs in September, a modest decline from the 187,000 reported in August. Simultaneously, the jobless rate is expected to dip from 3.8% to 3.7% for the reported month. A Stronger NFP Report's Implications A stronger NFP report, while indicating healthy job growth, may exert upward pressure on wages and inflation. This scenario could compel the Fed to maintain its hawkish stance and keep interest rates higher for an extended period. Such an outcome could provide renewed strength to the USD and potentially cap the GBP/USD pair's gains. Mixed Labor Market Data As traders brace for the NFP release, it has been a week marked by mixed labor market data. The monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for August showed higher-than-expected job openings, while private payroll numbers from the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report fell short of market expectations. Additionally, Thursday's data revealed a slight increase in Weekly Jobless Claims compared to the previous week, albeit slightly below expectations. Overall, these figures align with expectations of robust economic growth in the US for the third quarter. Furthermore, several Fed officials have voiced support for at least one more 25 basis points rate hike by year-end. Divergent Fed-BoE Policy Expectations The prospects of further policy tightening by the Fed have kept US Treasury bond yields elevated and supported the USD. This has contributed to halting the corrective pullback in the USD this week, despite its strong performance year-to-date. In contrast, market expectations are leaning towards the Bank of England (BoE) leaving interest rates unchanged at its upcoming November meeting. This divergence in central bank policies further acts as a restraint on the GBP/USD pair's upside potential. Waiting for Confirmation Given the prevailing market dynamics and uncertainties, traders are exercising caution and waiting for strong follow-through buying before confirming that GBP/USD has established a near-term bottom. Such confirmation would set the stage for a potential extension of the recent robust recovery that has spanned the last two trading days. Conclusion The GBP/USD pair is consolidating its recent gains as traders await the crucial US Nonfarm Payrolls report. This release carries substantial implications for both the USD and GBP, with the potential to influence market expectations regarding future monetary policy decisions. While the current market outlook is cautiously optimistic, the NFP's outcome will likely determine the short-term direction of the GBP/USD pair. Our preference Short positions below 1.23075 with targets at 1.2110 & 1.2005 in extension.
Short
by FOREXN1
21
10-6 Using Price/Fib Theory To Catch NFP MovesThis short video shows you how I used Fibonacci Price Theory techniques to identify trends, catch the biggest moves in price today on the SPY/SPX500. This is an instructional video - attempting to show you how to use PRICE (the ultimate indicator) to help you learn to become a better trader. How did I know price would REJECT at $425.40 this morning and sell downward? How did I know the bottom would confirm near $421.20? How did I know the price rejection near $421 (after the bottom) would result in a bullish rally phase? Fibonacci Price Theory teaches us: Price must always seek higher highs or lower lows - ALWAYS. Failure to establish higher highs means price will attempt to make lower lows. Failure to make lower lows means price will attempt to make higher highs. Watch the video. Ask questions if you have them. Price is the ultimate indicator - use it.
FX:SPX500Education
by BradMatheny
GBPUSD - by a Certified Financial Technical Analyst I do a detailed analysis for you,, and here is the conclusion. 📈📍 Weekly: GBPUSD is moving downwards. Price makes LH/LL 📈📍 Daily: GBPUSD is also in a Downtrend but over-extended 📈📍🚀 Hourly: Price moved in an upward channel - valid channel therefore the price either will break above and create a new market structure with series of higher Highs and higher lows, either will get absorbed by selling pressure and reject the channel line- channel line called the upper line of the channel The RSI on there hourly chart shows Bearish Divergences and this means that the preceded leg was weak compared to the previous. Therefore is also a sign for market maybe will reverse. I will be looking to sell if there is a strong price action reversal. 💬 Let me know how valuable you find this and if you want to see more analysis like this
Short
by MarketMindsMastery
Stronger-for-Longer Jobs Spooking the Markets?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 10/06 As we published in our trading plans yesterday, Thu. 10/05: "With JOLTS on Tuesday, Initial Jobless Claims Numbers this morning, and Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow, this week is all about Jobs and Jobs. So far, there is no sign of any letting up in the strength of the Job market". This morning's much stronger than expected NFP data re-affirmed this strength and quashing any hopes of a softer fed anytime soon. Since our published trading plans two weeks ago pointing out that week's 4505 level as potential top for the near term, the market has been in a free fall mode. Our models indicate 4310 as the level to close above for the current bearish bias to be negated. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4267, 4252, 4227, or 4211 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4247, 4233, 4224, or 4208 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4264, and explicit short exits on a break above 4237. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:31am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #higher4longer, #higherforlonger, #nfp, #nonfarm, #payrolls
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
EUR/USD Shows Strength as USD Weakens Ahead of US Nonfarm Pay...EUR/USD Shows Strength as USD Weakens Ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls The Euro (EUR) is demonstrating resilience against the US Dollar (USD), pushing EUR/USD to multi-day highs near 1.0550. Simultaneously, the USD is losing ground, revisiting 106.30 on the USD Index (DXY). This dynamic reflects improved sentiment in the risk-associated universe, despite only a tepid rebound in US yields. While the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the near term, questions surround the European Central Bank (ECB) as inflation surpasses targets and concerns about recession or stagflation linger in the Eurozone. Economic Indicators In terms of recent economic indicators, Germany's Factory Orders expanded by 3.9% in August, while Italy's Retail Sales contracted by 0.4% during the same month. US Nonfarm Payrolls Preview All eyes are currently on the release of September's Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate data from the United States. Economists expect job creation to remain steady, with Nonfarm Payrolls set to rise by 170,000, a slight dip from the 187,000 reported in August. The Unemployment Rate is also anticipated to drop modestly to 3.7% in September. The Hawkish Fed and US Dollar's Rally The Fed's hawkish stance and the strong US job market have led to expectations of a final interest-rate hike by the Fed this quarter. This sentiment was reinforced when US job openings unexpectedly rose to 9.610 million in August, indicating a persistently tight labor market that allows the Fed room for further tightening. This outlook propelled the US Dollar Index to an 11-month peak above 107.00, with US Treasury bond yields approaching 16-year highs. Changing Sentiment However, the odds of a Fed rate hike in November dipped to 23% from about 31% following downbeat US labor market data released on Wednesday. The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report showed that the US private sector added only 89,000 jobs in September, significantly below expectations. US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services PMI also fell from 54.5 to 53.6 in September, although it matched expectations. These developments triggered a correction in the US Dollar and bond yields. Anticipating the Impact on EUR/USD Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls data will provide critical insights into the labor market's tightness, especially after a robust JOLTS report and softer private payrolls data. A positive NFP print and strong wage inflation data could strengthen expectations for another Fed rate hike by year-end, potentially driving EUR/USD below 1.0400 . Conversely, if the data suggests weakening labor market conditions and deters hopes of further Fed rate hikes in 2023, EUR/USD could stage a robust recovery toward 1.0650. Conclusion The EUR/USD pair is showcasing strength as the USD weakens in anticipation of the US Nonfarm Payrolls data. While the market closely watches the economic indicators, the interplay between the Fed and ECB policies continues to shape the currency landscape. A lot hangs on the NFP report's outcome, and it could sway EUR/USD in either direction as investors weigh the implications for future monetary policy actions. On the EUR/USD daily timeframe, we can see the "Big picture" H1 Timeframe Analysis: Our preference Short positions below 1.0620 with targets at 1.0490 & 1.0400 in extension.
Short
by FOREXN1
23