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Nfp

Pre NFP Livestream January 5th (NFP) DXY: NFP data above 170k close to 200k, could climb to 103.50 NZDUSD: Buy 0.6245 SL 25 TP 50 (DXY Weakness) AUDUSD: Sell 0.6650 SL 20 TP 95 (Hesistation at 0.66) (DXY strength) USDJPY: Buy 145.25 SL 50 TP 120 (DXY Strength) GBPUSD: Buy 1.2730 SL 20 TP 85 (DXY Weakness) EURUSD: Sell 1.0880 SL 25 TP 100 (DXY Strength) USDCHF: Buy 0.8550 SL 25 TP 100 (DXY Strength) USDCAD: Buy 1.3410 SL 20 TP 70 (DXY Strength & CAD Weakness) Gold: Test and reject 2048 to trade down to 2032
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
Binance Launches $NFP Perpetual Contract Amid $NFP Price RallyBinance Futures launched the USD-M NFP Perpetual Contract on December 27, 2023, providing traders with the opportunity to engage in perpetual trading with up to 50x leverage. The underlying asset, NFPrompt (NFP), would be settled in USDT via this perpetual contract. The update comes after NFP’s listing on Binance after it made its market debut on Wednesday. NFP Price Today The recent developments marked a turning point for the NFPrompt team and propelled the NFP crypto price to gain. The NFP price added 1.39% to its value and traded at $1.188369 at press time. The crypto registered a high of $1.23 during the trading session. Moreover, the NEWCONNECT:NFP market capitalization increased by 0.58% to $294.38 million. Whilst, the day’s trade volume was recorded at $277.39 million, which is an impressive figure for a new entrant in the crypto space. The current circulating supply of NFP stands at 250 million tokens, which is 25% of the total supply of 1 billion tokens.
BINANCE:NFPUSDLong
by DEXWireNews
EURUSD in on the way finding breakoutAs my analysis for EURUSD, The price stuck on the weekly support which highlighted based on the chart. The Weekly trend still in bullish position but still find out the direction either down or more higher for long term position. As the US want to keep their monetary policy, keep going fight the inflation, probably, USD will take an advantage to keep them strong. Whatever it is, i will looking for any breakout happen at the current price based on its support and resistance, accompany by the trendline waiting for break or not.
by Lowzeus
1
🔥 XAUUSD : The Fall will Continue ?By checking the gold chart in the daily time frame, we can see that the price according to our expectation was accompanied by a further fall and was able to correct up to $1973! Be careful, this fall will continue only if it stabilizes below the level of 1987$! In this case, the next falling targets will be $1966, $1960 and $1939 respectively! Please share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me and support us with your likes and comments. Best Regards , Arman Shaban
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
4
EURUSD The trend will be determined after the news (NFP).Hello traders. The trend will be determined after the news (NFP). There are many fluctuations, I think anything can happen. before the news is released and even half an hour after that. If the data is as expected, the dollar will gain strength and the euro can touch 1.066. If the data is weak, everyone is betting on an interest rate cut in the first quarter of next year and even sooner, and the euro could touch 1.1 in next weak. What do you think? Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** Check out my latest analysis on the dollar index.
by Mehdi_Ha
1
Decoding the NFP Report: Trading Strategies.In the dynamic world of forex trading, strategies that cater to the ever-changing market conditions are invaluable. While fundamental analysis is widely embraced in stock trading, its effectiveness in the forex market is often questioned. Unlike the stock market, where financial statements can significantly impact individual stocks, the forex market is influenced by a myriad of factors, including central bank policies and political leadership. In this article, we explore the limitations of fundamental analysis in the forex market and delve into an intriguing momentum trading strategy centered around a key macroeconomic indicator—the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). This strategy harnesses the unpredictable yet powerful market reactions triggered by the release of NFP data, offering traders a unique opportunity to capitalize on momentum. Fundamental Analysis in Forex: Fundamental analysis, a staple in stock trading, faces challenges in the forex market due to its limited impact on currency exchange rates. Forex stability relies not only on economic indicators but also on the nuanced decisions of central banks and political leadership. Despite these challenges, successful forex trading doesn't necessitate rigid adherence to a specific scenario. Traders can leverage price momentum and increased liquidity to execute effective impulse trading strategies. Non-Farm Payrolls Trading Strategy: The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) trading strategy capitalizes on the release of crucial U.S. economic data—the Non-Farm Payrolls report. This multicurrency strategy is applicable to all currency pairs involving the U.S. dollar, allowing traders to explore numerous assets simultaneously. The primary objective of this strategy is to capture price momentum, making it adaptable to various time frames. Non-Farm Payrolls: Predictable Unpredictability: The NFP report, published every first Friday of the month, serves as a linchpin for speculative traders. It provides insights into the strength and growth of the U.S. economy, consequently influencing the value of the U.S. dollar. The report focuses on the non-agricultural sector, which contributes significantly to the nation's GDP. The sheer importance of the NFP report lies in its ability to reflect the health of the U.S. economy. The release of this data sparks maximum market volatility, with prices witnessing rapid fluctuations, often ranging from 100-200 points in a short period. However, interpreting the aftermath of the news poses a unique challenge due to the simultaneous release of unemployment statistics, which can sometimes contradict each other. Despite the inherent unpredictability, the NFP trading strategy capitalizes on the strong price spikes triggered by the news release. While predicting post-news price behavior may be challenging, the strategy offers a systematic approach to navigate and profit from the volatile market conditions that follow the NFP announcement. Rules of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Trading Strategy: Stay Informed with an Economic Calendar: Use a reliable economic calendar to stay informed about upcoming NFP releases. The economic calendar will help you track the scheduled date and time of the NFP report. Check for News Release Postponements: Understand that postponements of data releases are common in economic calendars. Monitor the calendar regularly to stay updated on any changes to the scheduled release time of the NFP report. Utilize a Trusted Economic Calendar: Choose a reputable economic calendar platform to ensure accurate and timely information. The provided link www.tradingview.com can be a valuable resource for tracking economic events. Prepare for High Volatility: Recognize that the release of the NFP report triggers significant market volatility. Prepare for rapid price movements and be cautious about entering trades during the initial moments following the release. Focus on the Non-Agricultural Sector Employment Data: Prioritize the non-agricultural sector employment data within the NFP report. This indicator is crucial for gauging the strength of the U.S. economy and can have a substantial impact on currency pairs involving the U.S. dollar. Monitor Unemployment Statistics: Simultaneously track unemployment statistics released alongside the NFP report. While the primary focus is on non-agricultural employment, an understanding of unemployment trends can provide additional context for market reactions. Be Cautious of Contradictory Data: Acknowledge that data within the NFP report, especially non-agricultural employment and unemployment figures, may occasionally present contradictory signals. Exercise caution during such instances, as market predictability diminishes. Wait for Initial Volatility to Subside: Post NFP release, wait for the initial surge in volatility to subside before considering trade entries. Initial reactions can be impulsive, and waiting allows for a more informed decision-making process. Consider Multiple Currency Pairs: Since the NFP report influences the U.S. dollar, the strategy can be applied to various currency pairs involving the dollar. Explore multiple pairs simultaneously to identify the most favorable trading opportunities. Implement Risk Management: Prioritize risk management strategies to protect your trading capital. Set stop-loss orders and determine the appropriate position size based on your risk tolerance and account size. Practice on Demo Accounts: Before implementing the NFP trading strategy in live markets, practice on demo accounts to familiarize yourself with the dynamics of the strategy and refine your execution. Continuous Learning and Adaptation: Stay informed about changes in market conditions and continuously adapt your strategy. The forex market evolves, and traders need to adjust their approaches based on ongoing developments. By adhering to these rules, traders can enhance their effectiveness when employing the Non-Farm Payrolls trading strategy and navigate the unique challenges posed by this high-impact economic event. Traders often seek strategies to capitalize on this volatility, and one popular approach is the Pending Orders strategy. In this article, we'll explore the intricacies of the Pending Orders strategy , shedding light on its advanced nature and its application by both novice and experienced traders. 1 ) Pending Orders Strategy: Set Buy Stop and Sell Stop Orders: Minutes before the NFP publication, set two pending orders: Buy Stop and Sell Stop. These orders are strategically placed 25-30 points away from the current price to avoid simultaneous triggering due to heightened volatility. Manage Triggered Orders: When the price reacts to the news release, triggering one of the pending orders, promptly delete the other as a non-operational scenario. This prevents both orders from activating simultaneously. As observed in this image, during the latest NFP event on Friday, December 8, 2023, the price exhibited a robust bearish impulse immediately after the report release at 5:30 pm. This triggered our sell stop pending order, shifting our trade into a profitable position. Following the bearish movement, the strategy aims to close the buy stop position (the opposite direction). At this juncture, traders should take proactive measures to manage the open position. Stop Loss Considerations: Place a Stop Loss in the opposite order or opt not to set it at all, provided the second pending order remains intact to limit potential losses. This ensures that the remaining order acts as a safeguard against adverse market movements. Trailing Stop for Profit Maximization: Implement a Trailing Stop to secure profits. Continuously adjust the Trailing Stop as the price advances, allowing you to capitalize on the maximum price momentum. This dynamic approach helps lock in gains while navigating the evolving market conditions. As depicted in the image, the price, after experiencing a bearish movement, rebounds upward. What could be the reason behind this? The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report assesses the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment in the previous month. For this specific event, the forecasted unemployment rate was 3.9%. However, the actual percentage revealed in the report was 3.7%, indicating a lower number of individuals unemployed and actively seeking employment in the preceding month. This positive deviation from the forecast serves as a favorable signal for the USD, prompting an upward movement in its value following the event. In currency markets, an 'actual' percentage lower than the 'forecast' is generally considered beneficial for the respective currency. By the way, Short-term trades had the opportunity to secure a few pips in gains after the activation of the Sell Stop order. Strategy N.2 Meanwhile, in this other image, I have marked a vertical line at the recent NFP event. Additionally, I've incorporated a 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) to illustrate the short-term trend. After the release of this significant economic news, you can observe an increase in volatility. This could serve as a component of a monthly strategy where the release of such news acts as a trigger. This second scenario or strategy, especially for beginners, is considered much safer. By analyzing the NFP report results, understanding economic dynamics, and gaining insights into the potential continuation of the trend or a possible pause for a reversal, traders can make informed decisions. In conclusion, it's essential to backtest the presented strategies and conduct a forward backtest in a demo account. Your thorough understanding and application of these strategies are crucial. Thank you for taking the time to read my article.
Education
by FOREXN1
3
THE KOG REPORT - NFPKOG REPORT – NFP: This is our view for NFP tomorrow, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. Quick NFP Report today with the levels to look for a reaction in price. Would say we're only looking for one move, that's down into the support regions before capturing a potential tap and bounce back up. If price does go up, we'll be sitting and waiting for the order region to break and then assess the price action over the weekend before then making a plan which we will share on the KOG Report. Key levels: Support – 2000-05 and below that 1975-80. Resistance – 2035 and above that 2055, break above we’ll be on for targeting that wick. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
6
EURUSD Back Under PressureHi Traders! EURUSD is now under pressure following the NFP report. Momentum is now back with the US dollar, and further downside momentum looks very likely. Here are the details: The market is trending down following the break and close below the 20 EMA. There is a possibility of the market going back below the 1.07 handle. Preferred Direction: Sell Entry Level: 1.07458 Stop Level: 1.07961 Target Level: 1.06453 Technical Indicators: 20 EMA Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly.
Short
by BluetonaFX
9
Pre Non Farm Employment Change Analysis8th December 2023 (NFP EVENT) DXY: Retrace & retest 104 resistance area, next move dependent on NFP. NZDUSD: Buy 0.6130 SL 20 TP 90 (Weaker DXY, Bad NFP) AUDUSD: Sell 0.6585 SL 15 TP 60 (Stronger DXY, Good NFP) USDJPY: Sell 143 SL 35 TP 135 (Weaker DXY) GBPUSD: Sell 1.2515 SL 20 TP 50 (Stronger DXY) EURUSD: Buy 1.0770 SL 20 TP 60 (Weaker DXY) USDCHF: Sell 0.8735 SL 20 TP 50 USDCAD: Sell 1.3535 SL 20 TP 50 Gold: consolidating, DXY weakness to break out above 2043 could trade up to 2070
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
2
British pound shrugs as Construction PMI misses estimateThe British pound is showing limited movement on Wednesday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2582 in the North American session, down 0.10%. The UK Construction PMI ticked lower to 45.5 in November, compared to 45.6 in October and shy of the consensus estimate of 46.3. The construction sector has been in contraction for most of the year and the November print marked a third straight month in contraction. The weak housing market has resulted in a decrease in house building and chilled activity in the construction industry. There was better news from the UK Services PMI on Tuesday, which was revised higher to 50.9 in November, up from the preliminary estimate of 50.5. The PMI accelerated from the October print of 49.5 and indicated expansion for the first time in four months, with a reading above the 50 level which separates contraction from expansion. The Bank of England has held rates at 5.0% since August, leading to growing speculation that the BoE is done with rate hikes. This has led to expectations of rate cuts in 2024, but Governor Bailey pushed back against such expectations today, stating that interest rates would need to stay at current levels for an "extended period to bring inflation back to target on a sustained basis". This was a very clear message that the central bank plans to stick with the "table mountain" approach (higher for longer) and is not considering rate cuts. Inflation fell to 4.6% in October, a sharp drop from the 6.7% gain in decline. Still, that is more than double the 2% target and the BoE is unlikely to trim rates until inflation is significantly lower. In the US, the ADP employment report showed little change in the November report. ADP is not a very reliable indicator for job growth but is nonetheless closely monitored as it precedes nonfarm payrolls by just two days. ADP eased to 103,000 in November, slightly lower than the downwardly revised 106,000 in October and well off the consensus estimate of 130,000. Nonfarm payrolls is expected to rise to 185,000 in November, up from 150,000 in October. There is resistance at 1.2624 and 1.2678 1.2536 and 1.2482 are the next support levels
by OANDA
🔥 XAUUSD : Wanna Know more About ADP ? (READ THE CAPTION)First of all , let's have a look on the TVC:GOLD Chart ! As you can see, based on the latest gold price analysis, we saw that the price, as we expected, was accompanied by a further drop and was able to correct until $2009! In the last 2 days, we saw the price rise to $2149 and then a heavy drop of 1373 pips to the range of $2009! Based on the assumptions of the previous analysis, we expected that if this FALL continues, we will see the price reach $1993 as the first bearish target! As long as the price trades below the specified FVG range, we still expect gold to fall further, but note that there is a liquidity gap in the range of $2040 to $2072, which I expect to be filled in the short term and after If we witness the stabilization of the price below this range, we can expect the price to drop to lower prices such as $1993 and $1939! Now It's Time for analyzinf the ADP news ! What is ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and its effects on the Forex market and Gold Price ? ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is an economic indicator that shows the monthly change in the number of employed people in the private and non-farm sector of the US. This indicator is based on the payroll data of about 400,000 private companies and is released two days before the official Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Therefore, this indicator is considered as a preview of the US labor market situation and can have a significant impact on the Forex market and Gold Price. The impact of ADP data on the Forex market and Gold Price depends on several factors. First, it should be compared with the economists’ forecast. If the ADP data is higher than the forecast, it means a stronger employment growth in the US private sector and a sign of strengthening the US economy. This can increase the probability of interest rate hike by the US central bank (FED) and consequently strengthen the US dollar against other currencies. Conversely, if the ADP data is lower than the forecast, it means a weaker employment growth in the US private sector and a sign of weakening the US economy. This can decrease the probability of interest rate hike by the FED and consequently weaken the US dollar against other currencies. Second, it should be compared with the official NFP report. If both the ADP and NFP data are higher or lower than the forecast, it means a consistency between the two indicators and a similar impact on the Forex market and Gold Price. But if the ADP and NFP data are different from the forecast, it means a discrepancy between the two indicators and a contradictory impact on the Forex market and Gold Price. Generally, the NFP report is more attention-grabbing than the ADP report and can have a stronger impact. Third, it should be compared with the overall market conditions and other economic events. If the market is in a risk-on mode, it means a preference for investing in high-risk and high-return assets such as currencies of strong economies and stocks. In this case, a strong ADP data can stimulate the market and weaken the US dollar. Conversely, if the market is in a risk-off mode, it means a preference for investing in low-risk and low-return assets such as the US dollar and Gold. In this case, a weak ADP data can scare the market and strengthen the US dollar. Of course, it should be noted that the market conditions may change under the influence of other economic events such as political decisions, social movements, health crises, etc. and these factors should also be considered. In summary, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is an important economic indicator that can have direct and indirect effects on the Forex market and Gold Price. Please share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me and support us with your likes and comments. Best Regards , Arman Shaban
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
12
AudNzd weakness is coming...AN should be making a turn down, already showing signs...Watch for it. **Find out more from my Tradingview Stream this week** *************************************************************************************** Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Short
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
3
TradePlus-Fx|NFP overview💬 GOLD: Review before non-farm. It’s the first Friday of the new month on the calendar, which means the publication of data on the US labor market. In this regard, there are assumptions regarding several trading instruments and how they could potentially behave during the non-framing release. Firstly, let’s slightly refresh the idea of Gold, which retains its parameters, and we expect here mainly a fall. Before the non-farm itself or already at the time of publication, most likely, the metal will rise a little, trying to form a false breakout. However, in general, a fall is expected here towards the level of 1948.160. 💬 EURUSD: The euro is also expected to fall, here the instrument may touch the level of 1.06745 before falling, so we also take this into account when placing a deal. The target for the fall is local lows around 1.05194. 💬 USDCHF: The US dollar is also expected to strengthen for the USDCHF currency pair. Here, by the way, there is already an active buy trade, the stop loss is placed beyond the level of 0.90170. First of all, growth to 0.91092 is expected, then a small volume can be left for potential growth to 0.91475 and higher. 🔔 FX CALENDAR TODAY 🔔 Unemployment Rate 🇺🇸Non-Farms Payrolls 🇺🇸Unemployment Rate 🇺🇸Services/Composite PMI 🇺🇸ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 🛢US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ 🚀Thank for your BOOSTS 🚀 👇Share your views and FOLLOW US 👇
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TradePlus-Fx
15
EURUSD 3 Nov 2023 Intraday Analysis - NFP Day This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 3 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Bullish Swing Bullish INT 2. After sweeping the liquidity down there the Swing continuation is solid now for more upside and targeting the Swing High and more. We reacted yesterday from the supply zone that formed to sweep the liquidity but there is a high probability that we will break this zone to target the Swing High. 3. 4H Demand zone could hold the price to continue up after sweeping liquidity on the left. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish 2. After the last iBOS, price reacted from 15m Supply that caused the bearish iBOS to facilitate the bullish iBOS pullback. INT Structure holding bullish continue the bullish swing continuation. 3. 4H Demand zone which includes 15m Demand zones that can provide potential buys to continue bullish. I don't think that price can pullback all the way down to the 15m demand which is a sign of weakness, instead i'm looking for breaks to the upside from here and continuation today.
by Amr-Sadek
GBP/USD Pullback expected before reaching 1.24Analysis of GBP/USD: The GBP/USD is on the rise towards the 1.2400 level to conclude a trading week that has seen the pair mostly fluctuate around the averages. After the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data came in well below expectations, the British Pound (GBP) has seen a 1.6% increase from Friday's opening bids near 1.2190, and the GBP/USD is up almost 2.5% from the week's lows of 1.2095. US Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 150,000 in October versus the forecast of 180,000. The US NFP figures fell short of expectations, marking the worst headline figure in nearly three years. The US added 150,000 new jobs in October, missing the market forecast of 180,000 and well below September's figure, which was revised downward from the initial print of 336,000. The failure to meet US employment targets is dragging the US Dollar (USD) lower across the market as investors shift towards risk assets, despite the deteriorating US labor data, which is counterintuitively inspiring investors to move out of safe havens. Weaker US economic data could lead the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reconsider interest rate decisions, as investors look for signs that the Fed may accelerate the program of potential rate cuts. Technical Outlook for GBP/USD: The Sterling's ascent driven by the NFP data is pushing the GBP/USD straight through the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), aiming directly for the 1.2400 level and preparing to challenge the 200-day SMA, which is currently moving sideways from 1.2435. GBP/USD has recently oscillated between 1.2300 and 1.2100, and a bearish fallback would see the pair sliding towards multi-month lows around the 1.2000 major level. I personally expect a pullback to around 1.2160, where the price could then reverse to head towards 1.24. Let me know your thoughts, and happy trading to all from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
5
XAUUSD heading towards 2100 - NFP and Middle East conflict!Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the United States increased by 150,000 units in October, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the United States last Friday. This figure was below market expectations, which anticipated 180,000 new hires. The September increase, initially recorded at 336,000, was subsequently revised downward to 297,000. During the same period, the unemployment rate inched up from 3.8% to 3.9%, while the labor force participation rate declined from 62.8% to 62.7%. Annual wage inflation, measured by the change in average hourly wages, eased to 4.1% from 4.3%. In response to these data, the US Dollar faced significant downward pressure. At the time of writing, the US Dollar index was down 0.6% at 105.55. Evaluating the October employment report, FXStreet analyst Yohay Elam commented: "The data is weak enough to reduce the likelihood of a rate hike, cementing the end of the tightening cycle. This is unfavorable for the US Dollar. The data is neither too weak to push investors into the Greenback nor too cold to diminish profits. For stocks, it's the perfect situation: the economy is not too strong to drive rate hikes, nor too weak to reduce profits. As for gold, the decline in Treasury yields is an advantage, but events in the Middle East are also being observed. Additionally, in the case of gold, an important level at 2010 is noted, which, if breached, could push the price toward 2100. Also, pay attention to the support zone at the 1998 level. Let me know what you think, comment, and leave a like. I wish everyone successful trading, greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
4
USD/CAD steady ahead of Canada, US job reportsThe Canadian dollar is showing little movement on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3740, up 0.03%. The week wraps up with US and Canadian employment reports, which could mean volatility from the Canadian dollar during the North American session. The US releases nonfarm payrolls, which had a massive September and crushed expectations with a gain of 336,000. The markets are projecting a modest gain for October, with a market consensus of 170,000. The ADP Employment Change report, which isn’t considered a reliable gauge for nonfarm payrolls but is still closely watched, posted a weak gain of 113,000 in October, well below the market consensus of 150,000 and following the September reading of 89,000. Will nonfarm payrolls follow suit or will we see another hot release? The US dollar has declined against the majors since the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates for a second straight time. Fed Chair Powell tried to sound hawkish and reiterated that rate hikes remain on the table, but the markets are in a dovish mood and believe that rates may have peaked. If the nonfarm employment release follows ADP and misses expectations, it would likely mean the end of the current tightening cycle and I would expect the US dollar to decline after the release. Conversely, a strong non-farm payrolls report would support the Fed's stance that rate hikes remain on the table and would likely translate into strong gains for the US dollar following the release. The Fed will also be keeping an eye on wage growth, a driver of inflation. Wages rose 0.2% m/m in September and the market estimate for October stands at 0.3%. On an annualized basis, wage growth is expected to ease to 4.0% in October, down from 4.2% in September. Canada's employment is projected to ease to 22,500 in October, compared to 63,800 in September, which marked an eight-month high. The labour market has remained strong despite the Bank of Canada's aggressive tightening, and a weak employment reading would boost the case for another pause from the BoC and could weigh on the Canadian dollar. 1.3730 is a weak support level. Below, there is support at 1.3660 There is resistance at 1.3805 and 1.3950
by OANDA