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KOG REPORT - NFP NFP – KOG Report: This is our view for NFP today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. It’s been a decent week in Camelot, so today’s NFP it’s suggested we stay away, let them move the markets to where they want, once the price settles then look for the key levels together with a high probability set before getting back into the markets. New traders, this usually happens next week! We’ll start by saying we should be bullish in these months with Gold attempting to break the 2000 level, however, looking at the structure of the chart we can see they’re lining up for a big move. Now, we have the key levels below 1920-23 which is important for price to stay above to then attempt to target the order region 1950-55 above. If price is supported around the 1920-23 region, we feel price may attempt to recover and attack the 1950-55 price region. This region is where we may get a reaction in price, which based on resistance could represent an opportunity to short the market back down for the lower levels. These levels need to be watched for a break either side of the overall range, which is shown on the illustration. Key levels for NFP – Support: 1930 / 1925 / 1923 / 1920 on break lower into 1910-05 target region Resistance: 1935 / 1942 / 1950 / 1955 on break higher into 1985 target region Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
16
NFP Preview by FOREX.com • Dollar outlook hinges on NFP as Fed’s decision is data-dependent • Mixed NFP leading indicators and what are analysts expecting • Wage inflation in services still a problem for the Fed Employment reports are almost always important anyway, but this one is going to be even more so. Coming in a week before the CPI report, Friday’s jobs data is going to influence Fed’s policy, as Powell has made it quite clear that US monetary policy is now restrictive enough and that the next decision in September would be entirely data dependent. Until then, we will have two more inflation and a couple of jobs reports to consider, including this one. While the focus is clearly on inflation as employment is still very strong, any potential weakness in jobs data could cement expectations of a policy hold. But another surprisingly strong employment report would keep the threat of further Fed hikes alive. So, the dollar could move quite sharply this week, as the Fed is now watching data very closely in determining its next move on monetary policy. What are analysts expecting? • Headline jobs growth of 200K expected vs. 209K in June • Unemployment rate is seen steady at 3.6% • Average Hourly Earnings are seen printing +0.3% m/m vs. +0.4% last month or 4.2% y/y vs. 4.4% previously Mixed NFP leading indicators The leading indicators we have had this week have been quite mixed. While the ADP private sector payrolls report was strong, the employment components of both the ISM Services and Manufacturing PMIs weakened. 1. ISM Services PMI • Headline: 52.7, Exp. 53.0, down from 53.9 • Employment 50.7, down 2.4 points from 53.1 in June • (Also, disinflation is already evidently ending in the services sector: Prices Paid was up - 56.8 from 54.1) 2. ISM manufacturing • Headline 46.4, Exp. 46.9, down from 46.0 • Employment 44.4, down 3.7 points from 48.1 in June 3. ADP private payrolls 324K vs. 191K eyed and 455K last The overall picture from the pre-NFP leading indicators point to a jobs report roughly in line with expectations. But if you look at the recent history of the nonfarm payrolls report, we have consistently seen better-than-expect results, although lately they have either been subsequently revised lower or in the case of the June report, missed expectations. Wage inflation in services still a problem for the Fed It is important to consider the whole picture and take into account average hourly earnings when it comes to trading the NFP. On the latter front, we have seen earnings increase by 4.4% year-on-year in April, May and June 2023. This shows that wage inflation is still going strong, and it is a concern for the Fed. This is especially the case for the services sector – which was also highlighted by the rise in prices paid index of the ISM services PMI. Another strong showing in wages data would be considered a dollar-bullish jobs report, even if we see a small miss in headline employment. Will USD continue pressing higher anyway? The further strengthening of the US dollar so far this week has nothing to do with the Fed’s expected policy decision. It has a lot to do with the sell-off in US bond market, especially at the long end of the curve. This has been triggered by that rating downgrade by Fitch, causing investors to demand more for the increased risks associated with holding Treasurys. While a US debt default is unthinkable, it could happen at some future point in time. So, we wouldn’t rule out the possibility of further increases in US bond yields in the near-term. It will be interesting to watch next week’s $103 billion bond auction. This will tell us a lot about investors’ willingness to hold government debt. That said, the correction potential for the dollar is now high, and investors may soon start selling USD once the dust settles down – and especially if Friday’s jobs report comes in weaker. What else will markets focus on? Once the jobs report is out of the way, investors will turn their attention towards more inflation data, due in the following week. As mentioned, we will have already had the wages data from the employment report, but CPI is going to be important next Thursday. US inflation has fallen sharply in recent times, printing below-forecast readings in each of the past 4 months. Annual CPI fell to just 3.0% in June from around 6.5% at the start of the year, increasing the likelihood that interest rates have now peaked. The Fed’s policy decision in September will be entirely data dependent. Until then, we will have one more inflation and jobs report after this. Any further weakening of CPI could cement expectations of a policy hold. NFP trade ideas: EUR/USD and S&P 500 If the employment and wages data come in lower, we would favour looking for long setups in the EUR/USD, while a stronger report would boost the appeal of the USD/CHF. A goldilocks report is what stock market investors would be looking for – something not too hot to warrant a rate increase, and not too cold to raise recession alarm bells. By Fawad Razaqzada on behalf of FOREX.com
by FOREXcom
Non Farm Friday Prep4th August 2023 DXY: reacting along 102.55, depending on NFP today NZDUSD: Sell 0.6110 SL 25 TP 75 (dxy strength) AUDUSD: Sell 0.6575 SL 30 TP 60 (dxy strength) USDJPY: Sell 141.70 SL 30 TP 90 (dxy weakness) GBPUSD: Buy 1.2775 SL 35 TP 100 (dxy weakness, IHS) EURUSD: Sell 1.0930 SL 25 TP 50 (dxy strength) USDCHF: looking for a reaction along 0.88 Buy 0.8810 SL 20 TP 35 (dxy strength) Sell 0.8790 SL 20 TP 50 (dxy weakness) USDCAD: Buy 1.3395 SL 25 TP 65 (dxy strength) Gold: Break of support at 1930 to trade down to 1913
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
2
BluetonaFX - USDJPY Outlook for NFP AnnouncementHi Traders! USDJPY is trading with momentum ahead of tomorrow's Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) announcement, and we could see a break above the resistance level at 145.073, especially if the NFP data is strong. All of our indicators and price action analysis on the 1D chart are showing us that USDJPY is currently bullish. Since we had the break and close above our 20 EMA, the market has continued with strong momentum, and as long as we stay above the 20 EMA, we are likely to continue to the upside. We are now looking for a momentum break above the upper Bollinger band at the 144 level. The market is currently below the upper band, so we must get a break above the band to continue the bullish momentum. That being said, we must also be wary of the other side. We have pointed out a dragonfly doji on the chart, which, although it has a bullish bias to it, is still an indecision candle. Therefore, it is important to be wary of this, which is why we must get the break above the upper Bollinger band to continue the bullish momentum. Without the break above the upper band, the bullish momentum will likely fade, and the market is likely to pullback towards both the middle band and the 20 EMA. Please do not forget to like, comment, and follow, as your support greatly helps. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
6
New Zealand dollar sinks after soft jobs reportThe New Zealand dollar has extended its losses on Wednesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6093, down 0.91%. Earlier, NZD/USD touched a low of 0.6091, its lowest level since June 30th. The New Zealand labour market has been tight, despite aggressive tightening by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Wednesday's employment report for the second quarter showed some softening, which has extended the New Zealand dollar's losses. The unemployment rate rose to 3.6%, up from 3.4% in the first quarter and above the consensus estimate of 3.5%. Wage growth eased to 4.3%, below the 4.5% reading in Q1 and the estimate of 4.4%. These numbers point to a weaker labour market, but Employment Change rose 1.0%, up from 0.8% in Q1 and above the estimate of 0.5%. The mixed numbers show that the labour market may have lost a step but still remains strong enough to bear further rate hikes from the RBNZ. In July, the central bank maintained the cash rate at 5.50% and meets next on August 16th. China released July PMIs this week, and the soft readings are weighing on the New Zealand dollar. China is New Zealand's largest trading partner and the New Zealand dollar is sensitive to Chinese economic releases. We'll get a look at the Caixin Services PMI on Thursday. The consensus estimate stands at 52.5, following a June reading of 53.9. A reading above 50.0 points to expansion. In the US, the ADP Employment report kicked off a host of job releases, highlighted by nonfarm payrolls on Friday. ADP impressed with a gain of 327,000 for July, below the June reading of 455,000 but blowing past the consensus estimate of 189,000. A month ago, ADP came in at 497,000, fuelling speculation that nonfarm payrolls might follow suit with a strong release. In the end, nonfarm payrolls fell significantly, as expected. Will the NFP follow ADP's lead and crush the estimate? NZD/USD is testing support at 0.6093. Below, there is support at 0.6031 0.6184 and 0.6246 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
USD/CAD slips after BoC rate hikeThe Canadian dollar has posted strong gains in Wednesday's North American session. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3146, down 0.63%. On the economic calendar, it has been a busy day, with the Bank of Canada raising interest rates and US inflation falling lower than expected. The Bank of Canada raised rates by 0.25% on Wednesday, bringing the cash rate to 5.0%. The BoC has delivered 475 basis points in hikes since March 2022 and the aggressive tightening has sent inflation lower. Still, the BoC's rate statement noted that it remains concerned that progress towards the 2% target could stall and that it does not expect to hit the target before mid-2025. This can be considered a hawkish hike and the Canadian dollar has responded with strong gains on Wednesday. Wednesday's US inflation report should please the Federal Reserve, which has circled high inflation has enemy number one. The June release showed headline inflation falling to 3.0%, down from 4.0% in May. This beat the consensus estimate of 3.1% and was the lowest level since March 2021. Even more importantly, the core rate fell from 5.3% to 4.8%, below the consensus estimate of 5.0%. On a monthly basis, both the headline and core rate came in at 0.2%, below the consensus estimate. The inflation release was excellent news, but isn't expected to change the Fed's plans to raise rates at the July 27th meeting. The inflation data didn't change market pricing for the July meeting (92% chance of a hike), but did raise the chances of a September hike from 72% prior to the inflation release to 80% after the release. Although the jobs report on Friday showed nonfarm payrolls declining considerably, wage growth was higher than expected and likely convinced the Fed to raise rates at the July meeting before taking a pause. There is resistance at 1.3191 and 1.3289 1.3105 and 1.3049 are providing support
by OANDA
GBP/USD eyes UK employment reportThe British pound has drifted lower on Monday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2827 in the European session, down 0.09%. The UK labour market remains resilient despite a cooling economy and high interest rates. Tuesday's June jobs report is expected to show strong numbers. The economy is expected to produce 158,000 jobs in June, after a banner reading of 250,000 in May. The unemployment rate is projected to remain at a low 3.8% and unemployment claims are expected to continue declining. Wage growth is expected to rise to 6.8%, up from 6.5%. That sounds like great news, but not when you're the Bank of England and need the labour market to show some cracks and wage growth to slow down. A tight labor market and strong wage growth have hampered efforts by the central bank to lower inflation and the OECD said last week that the UK was the only major economy where inflation is still rising. The May inflation report was a disappointment, with headline inflation remaining at 8.7% and the core rate rising from 6.8% to 7.1%. BoE Governor Bailey will likely comment on the job numbers and investors will be looking for clues about the BoE's plans at the August 3rd meeting. The BoE has raised rates to 5.0%, but more tightening will be needed in order to curb inflation and the money markets have fully priced in a peak rate of 6.5% by February. The US dollar was broadly lower against the major currencies on Friday, after nonfarm payrolls slid to 209,000, below from the downwardly revised reading of 306,000 in May but not far from the 225,000 consensus estimate. The downturn may have surprised many investors who were caught up in the hype of a massive ADP employment release which showed a gain of 497,000. There was speculation of a blowout nonfarm payroll reading but in the end, the consensus estimate was close and the US dollar was broadly lower on expectations that the Fed could be close to winding up its rate-tightening cycle. GBP/USD tested support at 1.2782 earlier today. The next support level is 1.2716 There is resistance at 1.2906 and 1.2972
by OANDA
Daily Market Analysis - MONDAY JULY 10, 2023Key News: USA - FOMC Member Daly Speaks USA - FOMC Member Mester Speaks USA - FOMC Member Bostic Speaks UK - BoE Gov Bailey Speaks US stocks closed the week on a downward trend as investors carefully analyzed a range of data released earlier in the month. This data instilled confidence in the stability of the US economy, leading to expectations of prolonged elevated interest rates. Throughout the week, equity markets encountered challenges stemming from positive economic data, sparking speculations of a longer period of higher interest rates. After fluctuating and contemplating the potential for rate cuts later in the year, it seems that the markets have come to terms with the idea that the economic cycle will unfold over an extended timeframe. Consequently, the S&P 500 recorded a 1.2% decline. S&P 500 daily chart The Dow concluded the week with a loss and closed lower on Friday as traders assessed a monthly jobs report for June that fell short of expectations, ending a streak of 15 months of meeting estimates. Nonetheless, there remains anticipation that the Federal Reserve will proceed with a rate hike later this month. Dow Jones Industrial Average Index daily chart The US economy added 209,000 jobs in June, which fell short of the projected 225,000 and represented a substantial decline from the 306,000 jobs added in the previous month. This figure indicates the slowest pace of job creation since December 2020, raising concerns about the overall strength of the labor market. US Nonfarm Payrolls Despite the disappointing job growth figures, there was a positive aspect to the report with regards to wage growth. Average hourly earnings in June increased by 4.4%, surpassing the estimated 4.2%. This suggests that workers are experiencing higher wages, which could potentially contribute to increased consumer spending and economic growth. While the market still expects a rate hike in July, there is speculation among investors that the cooling labor market might deter the Federal Reserve from implementing further rate hikes beyond July. This sentiment is echoed in a note from Morgan Stanley, stating that the current data may not meet the criteria for the Fed to deliver a hike in September. In other news, the US-listed shares of Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) experienced an 8% rise following the announcement of a $984 million fine imposed by Chinese authorities on Ant Group. This marks the conclusion of Ant Group's extensive regulatory restructuring process, which has been closely monitored by investors and industry observers. These developments in the job market and the regulatory landscape have contributed to a dynamic and evolving market environment, where investors are carefully evaluating the implications for monetary policy and the performance of specific companies like Alibaba. Alibaba stock daily chart As the second quarter of the 2023 earnings season begins, analysts are anticipating a consensus that S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) will decline by 9% year-on-year. This decline is attributed to stagnant sales growth and margin compression, highlighting the challenges faced by companies. However, there is a particular focus on the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on companies, given the significant developments in the tech sector this year. The extent to which S&P 500 companies can effectively leverage AI to generate additional profits remains uncertain. Therefore, investors will closely examine management guidance and commentary to identify the companies that have the ability to enable, scale, and benefit from AI in the long term. Certain companies have already presented revenue and earnings outlooks that surpassed expectations, instilling confidence in their ability to navigate the current landscape. For example, Micron Technology (MU) provided optimistic revenue and earnings outlooks, while NVIDIA (NVDA) delivered significantly higher-than-consensus sales guidance for the second quarter. However, the shine of AI has been somewhat dulled by potential restrictions on the export of AI chips to China, which poses a notable risk for companies operating in this sector. Policymakers in the G4 countries, including the Japanese yen (JPY), have shown remarkable consistency in their approach, leading to limited potential for the US dollar to appreciate against other major currencies. With interest rates and equities experiencing fluctuations, there is less room for significant adjustments in foreign exchange (FX) markets. The European Central Bank (ECB) has closely aligned its approach with that of the Federal Reserve, sometimes even surpassing it in terms of rhetoric. This has prompted a reevaluation of the short-term outlook for the Eurozone, despite slower economic growth. The ECB's singular focus on combating lower inflation has provided support for the euro. However, there are limits to this approach, as extreme measures to control inflation may only be effective for a certain period, particularly when the economy is already experiencing a technical recession. If the trend persists, the more hawkish members of the ECB may adjust their stance, potentially leading to a decline in the EUR/USD exchange rate back to 1.07. EUR/USD daily chart In the upcoming week, investors will be keeping a close eye on a range of important economic indicators and events. One key highlight is the release of the consumer and producer price indexes, which provide crucial insights into inflationary pressures in the economy. These reports will be closely scrutinized as inflation remains a key concern for market participants. Additionally, the import and export price indexes will offer further indications of global trade dynamics and the impact of tariffs and trade policies on prices. This data can provide valuable insights into the health of the international trade sector and its potential effects on the broader economy. Investors will also be closely monitoring the Michigan consumer sentiment and expectations report, as consumer sentiment is an important gauge of consumer confidence and spending patterns. This data can provide valuable insights into the strength of the consumer-driven sectors of the economy. Furthermore, speeches from various Federal Reserve officials, including Barr, Mester, Daly, Bostic, Bullard, Kashkari, and Waller, will be closely watched for any hints or signals regarding the central bank's monetary policy stance. These speeches can provide valuable insights into the thinking of key policymakers and the potential future direction of interest rates. Overall, the combination of economic data releases and speeches from Federal Reserve officials will shape market expectations and influence investor sentiment in the coming week. Market participants will be analyzing these indicators and events for potential impacts on monetary policy decisions and overall market trends.
by FOREXN1
12
Eurusd Pulls up to end the week 📺The Weekly candle has flipped bullish with NFP data as I outlined as a possible scenario in yesterday's publishing and appears to be now headed towards 1.096 Daily resistance zone( Also the other side of the daily range). We are currently above 1.091 daily resistance zone and closed at this level with the 4hr candle. The 4hr candle closed quite strongly bullish. We have done a retest at our previous 4h resistance zone(1.09) which has just acted as a support level 40 minutes ago. We are seeing a bullish push to end off the week here and I think it may continue towards 1.0936 and 1.096 Daily resistance zone. We are consistently holing above 1.091 daily resistance zone and the 4hr close has given us confirmation that we may continue up. We have now gotten 2 1hr candles and 1 4hr candle close above 1.091 daily resistance zone. It may act as a support now after we have recieved candle closure confirmation on the 1hr/4hr timeframes. I was originally looking for sell positions on Eurusd with NFP. Instead we saw that —> 1) I Identified that NFP data was expected to decrease overall from the prior period ( Not a positive for USD) 2) The data was worse than what was forecasted by analysts' ( Not good for USD) 3) Price printed a strong daily candle closure back inside our daily timeframe range with yesterday's daily candle. Our daily timeframe range being between 1.085-6 Daily Support and 1.096 Daily Resistance 1 Trade today. Buy Stops with NFP Explanation : So price created a Daily resistance zone on Monday. On Tuesday it respected the daily resistance zone and moved down accordingly. I placed my buy stop position above this high of Tuesday's price. One position closed for +8 Pips, Other position closed for +9.3 Pips 💰. My target was the next 1hr resistance zone as we noted in yesterday's publishing at 1.0936. I secured partial positions and extend my Take Profit to 8-10 Pips during news trading and Lowered my position size accordingly. Data
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
BluetonaFX - EURUSD USDJPY NFP Multi-chart AnalysisHi Traders! The Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) announcement came in at 205K, which was weaker than the expected number of 225K, and the markets have reacted quite strongly to the news. This could be a possible reversal of the bullish trend we have seen for the US dollar, and it will be very interesting to see what the Federal Reserve and other finance officials say about this. On both charts below, we can see the stark contrast in price action between EURUSD and USDJPY. Both products on the 1H chart had a trendline break with huge momentum; we have highlighted this on the volume indicator. EURUSD is now extremely bullish and is targeting the psychological level of 1.10000. USDJPY is now bearish, and we are now looking at a possible break below the 142 level and even 140. This all depends on what the Federal Reserve says in reaction to the weak data and if they hike interest rates at their next interest rate decision announcement. Please do not forget to like, comment and follow. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
✏️ EURUSD : NFP's effect on Euro ! (READ THE CAPTION)By examining this symbol in the 4-hour time frame, we can see that the price is in an important supply range, and if it stabilizes below this level, and if the dollar index strengthens with the announcement of the NFP statistics, we can expect a drop to lower levels! In order to continue the downward trend of EURUSD, it is very important to stabilize the price below 1.09 ! Don't Forghet To Push The Boost (Like) Button and Follow Me for more ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Short
by ArmanShabanTrading
25
✏️ XAUUSD : NFP's effect on Euro ! (READ THE CAPTION)By re-examining gold in the 2-hour time frame, we see that the price has entered the important range of $1916 to $1925, which was mentioned in the previous analysis! If the price stabilizes below this level, I will give the possibility of falling more of the price! In case of correction, the bearish targets of this possible drop are $1904, $1901, and $1893, respectively! Don't Forghet To Push The Boost (Like) Button and Follow Me for more ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
11
Non Farm Employment Change Prep7th July DXY: could retest 103.50, likely to return to range between 102.80 and 103.40 NZDUSD: Sell 0.6115 SL 20 TP 60 (Good NFP) AUDUSD: Sell 0.6620 SL 20 TP 60 (early entry, slightly higher risk) USDJPY: Sell 142.60 SL 30 TP 90 (DXY weakness) GBPUSD: Buy 1.2710 SL 25 TP 60 (DXY weakness) EURUSD: Sell 1.08.40 SL 20 TP 60 (DXY strength) USDCHF: Could trade up to 0.90 resistance USDCAD: Buy 1.34 SL 30 TP 55 (DXY strength) GOLD: look to break 1910 to get to 1896
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
2
GOLD NEUTRAL We have took profit and now we await the next moveDear Ziilllaatraders, We took some big profits again today, I bet you guys are content. But tomorrow we will have the monthly NFP news coming out again. MY ADVICE stay out and watch how the game is going to be played. Because like every NFP, the price is going to swing all sides. So one other important rule of trading is to not be greedy, we already made big profits till now look at the results you are booking instead of always wanting to trade. This is of course my advice. Let me know guys what you think. Leave a like, comment, and follow for more. STAY HEALTHY AND WEALTHY! Greetings, Ziilllaatrades
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by ZILATRADES
FOREX's NFP PreviewThe US dollar outlook improved further on the back of a much stronger ADP payrolls report and an above-forecast ISM services PMI reading, all adding to bets that the Fed will hike interest rates at least one more time. The resulting sell-off in risk assets means the AUD/USD outlook has been dealt a double or even triple whammy. Will we now see another strong US non-farm payrolls report and further dollar strength? It looks that way, as we will explain in this NFP preview article. Dollar and yields jump as stocks drop on Fed hike bets The US dollar, already finding some strength from the hawkish FOMC minutes, got another shot in the arm as both the ADP private sector payrolls report and the ISM survey beat expectations. The dollar bears who were looking for some substantial downside surprise in data, were left disappointed. The dollar's reaction was a swift one, as it rallied across the board, causing the major FX pairs like the AUD/USD and EUR/USD to fall. Meanwhile, bond yields rose further, hurting stocks, gold, and most other risk-assets… While profit-taking may limit the dollar’s upside, traders will be re-assessing the situation after the official US non-farm jobs report is published on Friday. NFP Preview: ADP, ISM services PMI point to a strong jobs report On Monday, we saw the ISM manufacturing PMI come in well below expectations again (41.8 vs. 44.0) as activity contracted at a faster pace in June compared to May. It dropped to its lowest level since May 2020, at the height of the pandemic. What’s more, employment in the sector contracted by 3.3 points from 51.4 to 48.1, which is not great news. But the ISM services PMI (53.9 vs. 50.3 last) more than made up for that, with employment in the sector rising by a good 3.9 points to 53.1 from 49.2. This is clearly good news for those looking for another NFP beat. But that was nothing compared to how easily the ADP report trounced expectations. ADP private payroll jumped by 497K, up from 278K and well above the 228K forecast, reinforcing the Fed’s view that the strong labour market could help prevent a hard landing in the economy. In a nutshell So, while the manufacturing sector activity has been weakening, the services PMI has remained above the expansion level of 50.0 for the past four months. Now that we have seen fresh strength come into the services sector despite high interest rates, this should keep the doves at the FOMC quiet for another couple of months at least. Clearly, the jobs market remains very strong, as indicated by the ADP report. What to expect from the NFP report? As mentioned, this (and last) week’s data releases were mostly positive, pointing to an economy that is continuing to defy expectations (although the manufacturing PMI indicated otherwise). The jobs market has been particularly strong with nonfarm payrolls data beating expectations in the last 14 months in a row! Will that trend continue? If it does, it will mean interest rates will likely rise and remain higher for longer. This could benefit the US dollar in the short-term, even if high rates for longer might be something that could ultimately hurt the economy at some later point in time. Headline jobs growth is expected to have risen by 224,000 in June, causing the unemployment rate to drop back to 3.6% after it unexpectedly rose to 3.7% in the previous month. Average hourly earnings, a key measure of inflation, are expected to have risen by 0.3% month-over-month. If the jobs report beats, then we favour looking for bearish setups against commodity dollars, like the AUD/USD, in light of the big risk-off trade that was triggered by the release of hawkish FOMC minutes. Speaking of… AUD/USD outlook: NFP trade idea As well rising expectations over further Fed rate hikes, the AUD/USD outlook has been further blighted by China, Australia’s largest trading partner. This year we have consistently seen weakness in Chinese stock and currency markets, reflecting investor concerns about the health of the world’s second largest economy. While there has been some improvement in data lately, it hasn’t been enough to lift sentiment towards Chinese markets yet. This is an additional factor weighing on the Aussie. Domestically, Australia’s monthly inflation data came in far below expectations at 5.8% a couple of weeks ago and as it turned out, the RBA decided to hold their cash rate at 4.1%, wrongfooting bets of a 25bp hike. While the RBA thinks that inflation remains “too high” and “further tightening may be required,” suggesting that the pause doesn’t necessarily mean the peak, the markets are not so sure. Global inflation is likely to come down more rapidly moving forward because of calendar effects and as economic activity continues dwindle amid high interest rates and soaring cost of living around the world. Add China to the mix, it looks like the RBA is done with rate hikes. This should keep the AUD undermined, all else being equal. AUD/USD technical analysis The AUD/USD managed to claw back some of its losses in the second half of last week, after falling sharply in the week prior. The Aussie added mild gains at the start of this week, before turning lower once more on the back of US data. It turned lower after testing its 200-day moving average and resistance around 0.6670 to 0.6700. The lower lows and lower highs thus remain intact. The bears will want to see continued weakness and a drop towards 0.6580 initially, potentially ahead of the May low of 0.6458 next. The bulls will want to see a confirmed bullish reversal before looking for long setups. For example, a clean break above the aforementioned 0.6670-0.6700 resistance zone.  
by FOREXcom