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USD/CAD extends slide ahead of job reportsThe Canadian dollar continues to rally today and has climbed 120 points since Tuesday. Earlier in the day, USD/CAD touched a low of 1.3490, its lowest level since April 21st. The markets will be treated to key employment numbers on both sides of the border later today. Canada is expected to have added 20,000 new jobs in April, following 34,700 in March. This would be the lowest reading in four months and would be a clear sign that the labour market is weakening as interest rate hikes make their effect felt on the economy. In the US, nonfarm payrolls for April could move the dial on the US dollar ahead of the weekend. The markets are braced for a drop to 179,000, following 236,000 in March. There is a growing feeling that the labour market, which is been surprisingly resilient to relentless rate hikes, is showing cracks. Unemployment claims jumped to 242,000, up from a downwardly revised 229,000 and above the consensus of 240,000. Business optimism remains weak and that could translate into less hiring. If nonfarm payrolls fall to 180,000 or less, I would expect to see the US dollar lose ground, on expectations that the Fed may ease policy. The Fed's rate hike of 25 basis points this week may have been the end of the current rate-hike cycle, in which the Fed has raised rates 10 consecutive times. Fed Chair Powell hinted that the Fed could pause rates as soon as June, although he reminded his listeners that the battle against inflation was far from over and didn't close the door on further hikes. The markets are betting on a pause in June, with a probability of 99%, according to the CME Group. Powell said that given the inflation outlook, rate cuts were not on the table. The markets don't buy it and have priced in a rate cut at around 50% in July and a whopping 88% in September, according to the CME Group. USD/CAD tested support at 1.3492 earlier. Next, there is support at 1.3435 1.3580 and 1.3637 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
XAUUSD Technical Analysis 05.05.2023 1h chart– Previous Daily candle closed Bullish at 2050.400 just above the Daily Resistance formed on 14th April 2023. – Buys on close above 2056.800 targeting Daily Wick Fill formed yesterday (Thursday) at 2066.900, Leaving Runners to the March 2022 Monthly High at 2071.000. – Sells on close below 2046.100 targeting Daily previous Resistance formed on 14th April 2023 at 2040.600, Leaving Runners to the 4h Support formed at 2034.600. – High Impact News day ahead for the US Dollar and the US Economy, Average Hourly Earnings m/m forecasted to remain the same at 0.3%. Non-Farm Employment Change forecasted : 181k / previously was : 236k, Forecast increase to 3.6% from 3.5% on the Unemployment Rate.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by SalimFX20
DXY Potential Forecast | Unemployment Claims | 20th April 2023Fundamental Backdrop 1. Unemployment Claims comes out at 245k compared to a 240k forecasted. 2. This highlights a worsening labour market and a potential sign that of recession in the US. 3. This is bearish on the USD and we could see potential bearish continuations in the market. Technical Confluences 1. Near-term resistance at 102.09. 2. Price rejected this H4 resistance level and we could potentially see price head further down to break the structural low at 100.79. Idea Looking for price to continue heading bearish to the level at 100.79. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
TVC:DXYShort
by OlympusLab
DXY – Bearish pressureHey folks, Hope you’re doing well today! We wanted to share some insights on the potential sell for DXY. As you may already be aware, the price has been in a downtrend for quite some time now, and we’re currently seeing a local downtrend within a bigger degree corrective structure. This correction may even result in a new yearly. We’re exploring a couple of possibilities here, both with a high probability of breaking the low @100.82. The first possibility is a small range that continues to make lower lows before breaking the low. The second possibility is a bit more complex, with a deeper pullback towards the confluence created by the 4H order block, trendline, and the 50% FIB retracement level from the previous bearish impulse located at 102.2, before resuming the downtrend. We recommend keeping an eye on the price action to get a better idea of which pattern will develop. We’ll be sure to keep you posted in the comment section below. As always, trade with care and have a nice day!
TVC:DXYShort
by financialflagship
2
DXY Outlook 11 April 2023Note: Not sure what happened at 3am (GMT+8) with the candle reflecting a huge spike up and down. Does not show up on my MT4, so I shall take it as a glitch. Slightly surprisingly, the DXY strengthened strongly overnight with most major economies still on an Easter Monday bank holiday. It is most likely that because there are no/less counterparties to trade against the US Dollar, this "allowed" price to keep climbing higher. However, as the price found resistance at the 102.80 price level and the downward trend line, the current price action on the DXY signals a retracement to the downside. If the price breaks below 102.30 (which coincides with the 38.2% fib level) the DXY could retest the 102 round number support level again, with the 61.8% fib level close by. Price action is expected to remain choppy, up until the US CPI y/y release tomorrow, with the data expected to signal further slowdown in inflation growth for the US. This could indicate a slowdown in the FOMC rates decision, especially with the stronger than expected NFP data last Friday showing some "safety" in terms of unemployment.
TVC:DXYShort
by JinDao_Tai
NFP March 7th, 2023'In yesterdays publishing you can observe that our short term target was at 1.0938. Some buyers are taking profit as we have reached this minor zone 1Hr level. The bullish 4hr candle closed above 1.0918 which has been our Fakeout sell side entry area. This is bullish technically speaking. Looking at market structure it looks great. So we had a fakeout market strcutre display, but now look where the 4hr candle closed. EU being tricky. In larger context, I don't like buys as much at these prices. I like retests of 1.0867 to end the week off with NFP tomorrow. Price is consolidating near the Daily/Weekly highs and playing games. If we go Long, I like Bulls respecting 1.0918 , possibly wicking back down again to 1.089 and then rocket to mars at 1.103, Weekly timeframe wick fill. Trading : Fortunately, I did trade and anticipate sells off this level after news was released this morning. Price wicked up violently triggering my buy stop. In profit for two seconds then hit SL. Only half risk here. Consequently, I took sells after we whipped back down and created a low to go fill in momentum. I scaled in with full size effectively and picked up 7.3 pips in 6 minutes. I took one more sell for +2 pips with higher risk which worked out well. Took 1 more trade with half risk and closed for small loss. Called the day there.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
USD/JPY - Yen slides as Ueda says no plans for policy shiftBank of Japan Governor Ueda spoke at his first news conference as head of the central bank today. It wasn't quite a State of the Union address, but Ueda's message was clear - the current monetary policy was appropriate and he had no plans to make any major shifts. There has been strong speculation that Ueda will make some significant moves, perhaps not right away but in the next few months. After years of battling deflation, Japan is facing inflation which has risen above the BoJ's 2% target. The US/Japan rate differential has been widening as the Fed continues to raise rates while the BoJ has capped yields on 10-year government bonds and interest rates remain negative. The changing of the guard at the BoJ seemed to some as an opportunity for BOJ policy makers to take some steps toward normalization, such as tweaking or even removing yield curve control. Ueda poured cold water on this sentiment, stating that, “Right now, the yield curve control is considered most appropriate for the economy while tending to market functionality”. Ueda's message of "stay tuned for more of the same" has lowered expectations of a policy shift at the April 28th meeting and the yen has responded with sharp losses. Japan's consumer confidence gave policy makers something to cheer about, rising to 33.9 in March, vs. 33.1 prior and 30.9 anticipated. This was the highest level since May 2022, although consumer confidence remains deep in negative territory, below the 50-level which separates contraction from expansion. The week ended with a solid US employment report. The economy added 236,000 jobs last month, within expectations and softer than the upwardly revised 326,000 reading in February. The labour market is cooling but has been surprisingly resilient to relentless rate hikes and the odds of a 25-bp rate hike have increased to 68% according to the CME Group, compared to around 50% prior to the employment report release. There is resistance at 133.74 and 135.31 132.18 and 131.67 are providing support
by OANDA
GOLD → NFP data release. Price decline to support Gold is down to support before the release of the non-farm payrolls data. Earlier the price hit a new high at 2032, after which a technical pullback to the support of the price channel is forming. What to expect from the price today? The forex market may be slow today as many countries meet "Good Friday" but also, we have the NFP data release today. The forecast is for job cuts, so if the actual numbers are confirmed, the dollar could weaken a bit, which would affect the forex market. Key support: 2000 (false-break or rebound strategy), 1990 The key resistance: 2012 (false-break) 2025 (breakout) I think that the release of the actually underreported data might have a positive effect on the gold price and we will see a bounce of the price from the uptrend channel support, but I do not expect much of a market reaction, as a large part of the market is down today. Regards, R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
17
NFP on Good Friday | What to expect?"What to expect from NFP on Good Friday? What is Good Friday? Good Friday is a federal holiday, which means that US equity and bond markets are closed. However, the futures market, as well as the forex market, is open. Good Friday is a rare occurrence, but it has happened in the past. The last three times it occurred were in 2021, 2015, and 2012. Let's take a look at what happened to the price action on these past data releases when NFP came out. EURUSD moved in 2021, 2015, and 2012. USDJPY moved in 2021, 2015, and 2012. This tells us that the move is comparatively smaller than on normal days' releases, and it has a lot to do with FED policy action. This time, the FED has given a hint of not increasing interest rates anymore. The best decision here is to stand aside because the market is less volatile and may remain in a range for today. Let us know what do you think of the idea
by JustTradeSignals
5
EUR/USD Hovers Above 1.0900 As Investors Await Crucial NFPThe EUR/USD pair entered a consolidative phase on Thursday amid thin trading conditions while investors wait for the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 1.0925 area, 0.23% above its opening price. Most global markets will remain closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday. In the U.S., the stock market will remain closed, but the bond market will open for a shortened session. Still, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the March nonfarm payrolls data. The NFP report is expected to show the economy created 240,000 new jobs in March, following a 311,000 gain in February. At the same time, the unemployment rate is seen steady at 3.6%. Data released earlier this week (JOLTS, ADP) began to point to a loosening labor market. On Thursday, data showed the weekly initial jobless claims were 228,000 in the week ended March 31, above the 200,000 expected, adding evidence the job market is facing some pain. The official government report will have the last word and could fuel expectations the Fed will remain on hold at the May meeting. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair maintains a bullish short-term outlook, according to indicators on the daily chart, with the RSI and the MACD turning flat above their midlines. However, the bullish momentum has faded as investors take the sidelines. On the upside, the critical short-term barrier is given by recent highs at the 1.0970 area, followed by the 1.1000 psychological level and February’s high of 1.1032. On the flip side, the immediate support is seen at the key 1.0900 area and then the 1.0790-1.0800 zone, where the 20-day SMA reinforces the psychological level.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
ArmanShabanTrading |🔴 GBP/JPY : Bull or Bear ? READ THE CAPTIONBy analyzing the GBP/JPY symbol, we can see that the price faced selling pressure last day by attacking the liquidity pool above 166 and has managed to fall to 163.6 so far, the probability of continuing to fall to lower levels is high andThe first possible target of this drop will be 162 and the second possible target is 158.5! From the higher and important supply zones , we can mention the range of 167 to 169! Follow me for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, I'm here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 04.05.2023 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
Short
by ArmanShabanTrading
21
What is Non-Farm Payroll and How to Trade It? 📚 Hey traders, This week, on Friday, we are expecting Non-Farm Payroll Report. In this educational article, I will try to explain to you why that fundamental data is so important and I will share with you the insights how to trade it. Non-Farm Payroll is one of the most important indicators for forex and stock markets in the economic calendar. Being released on the first Friday of each month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), it shows the number of new jobs created by the US economy during the previous month, excluding farm sector, government and not for profit organizations. NFP accounts for 80% of the US gross domestic product work force. The non-farm payroll is used by analysts to determine the current state of the economy and to predict the future activity levels. For that reason, its release usually triggers volatile movements across all Us Dollar related financial instruments. Being crucially important, remember that NFP is not the only figure released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. NFP is the part of the Employment Situation Report that also contains: Unemployment rate, Average hourly earnings, Labor participation rate, Average workweek. The main reason, why newbie traders fail in trading NFP release is the fact that they completely neglect the figures of the Employment Situation Report. Here are some tips how to properly interpret the figures in the report: 1) Non-farm payroll numbers. It reflects the new jobs' creation pace. Higher than predicted rate is usually positive for the US stock market, while the weak rate usually affects that negatively. 2) Unemployment rate. It reflects the number of unemployed people in relation to a total workforce. Low unemployment rate is usually very positive for US Dollar, while higher than expected unemployment quite negatively affects on USD. 3) Average hourly earnings. It reflects the change of the labor cost. The fast increase in the labor cost is usually positive for US Dollar, while the slowing increase is considered to be a bearish indicator for USD. 4) Average weekly hours. It reflects the average amount of paid working hours. The increase in average weekly hours is considered to be a very positive factor for US stock market, while its decrease is considered to be a negative one. Trading NFP report, the one should consider all the figures from the Employment Situation Report. All the numbers should be weighed properly and only then the predictions should be made. Remember that volatility is higher than usual in the hours of news release, for that reason, be careful and never forget to set a stop loss.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
7