EURUSD - Boom or BustNFP around the corner, will it strengthen USD or weaken sentiment?
EURUSD is at monthly channel low, good upside potential (macro)
DOW is also at monthly low, be interesting to see what run bullish as it will determine the direction of the EURUSD pair.
DOW + Bullish = EURUSD Bearish
Negative NFP reports could push DOW into new lows and set the EUR off on it's bull run.
Also quite difficult to give an accurate estimate because rates are still so high and with so much quantitive easing post covid from both the USD and EUR it's hard to tell what will happen.
Good time for reactive trading, rather than predictive.
Nfp
SP500 waiting for the NFP 🦐SP500 on the 4h chart is trading between 2 structures and today's release of the NFP data can show us some break of those levels.
The main outlook remains bearish at the moment and it can be risky to trade this kind of event on the last trading day of the week.
How can i approach this scenario?
I will wait for a break of the support area and if that will happen i will be looking for a nice short order according to the Plancton's strategy rules.
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Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
• 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
• 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
• 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
• 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
• ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
GOLD TRADE IDEA 06 JANUARYGOLD FUNDAMENTAL & TECHNICAL ANALYIS 06 JANUARY.
Earlier this week we had better Jolt's job opening data and then Better ADP data & Better PMI data , reduced jobless claims
Hawkish FED , DXY breaking above 105 making,
Things are looking good for dollar hence bearish for gold , stocks , & XXXUSD pairs.
Main today will remain on Non Form payroll & Unemployment rate and then ISM service PMI.
So far with already released data , like ADP data , jobless claims & Jolts Job opening, it looks like the labor market is still solid.
based on data released we are expecting better unemployment rate / and NFP numbers.
So we are adopting to bearish bias in gold , indices & in XXXUSD pairs as DXY already came up on +VE side trading above 105.00 & Gold failed break above 1865 ,
Trade setup in gold today.
Pullback sells @ 1841 , & 1844.
Safer sells below 1828 & 1820
Further movement is depending upon the NFP & UnemplOyment rate and we will adopt to our main bias accordnigly
Any break above 1848 & 1852 we will be adopting gold buys which should be fueled by any fundamental catalyst like BAD NFP & unemployment data.
Happy NFP Day everyone ;-)
Written By -
Richard
Market Researcher FX overseas
EURUSD before NFPYesterday we saw another drop to the previous bottom at 1,0518. An important news is coming up today, so be careful.
Job data is published every first Friday of the month. The news has tremendous impact on the market so we must be prepared.
We expect the downside move to continue towards next target at 1,0440.
It is possible to see enormous fluctuations and corrections during the news.
The idea is spoil on a break out of 1,0635.
$EUR - Trade idea!$EUR - Trade idea!
It's been a quiet start, we had a little bullish momentum in dollar brought the eur decline a little but we are now back within the range. Even with FOMC nothing really changed imo very little market movement, we did get a pull back on metals a little. For now we on EUR 1HR.
Lows: 1.05870
Highs: 1.06355
A break to either direction.
If you were to look at the daily we are in a range of lows: 1.05200 areas and highs: 1.07200 areas needs break these key levels for further clarification.
Lets not forget we got NFP tomorrow we could be in these ranges until then, add alerts or orders whatever is in your trade plan.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
Trade Journal
Weekly Outlook - NFP!! (Ending 010623)First, it is NFP week. The Market is more unpredictable because manual intervention will take place. Please be aware of this when trading.
Second, I'm looking for Consolidation, Manipulation, then Distribution. Initially, the market has consolidated. Next, it will drive higher, liquidating all the Bears' Shorts built in (the three levels I noted) and making the Bulls trigger happy to provoke Long positions. After their positions are built in, the market will reverse and liquidate their Stop Loses below 3780.
Stay Tuned...
DXY, SHORT Resault: 420 pips✅Based on the structure of the chart, the US dollar index is pulling back towards the middle line of the ascending channel and will move towards the bottom of the channel after the pullback.
According to my risk and capital management system, the risk of each trade is one percent per position.
What do you think about this analysis and other analyses?
What symbol would you like me to analyze for you?
NFP's effect on $GOLD : 12.02.22I specified the possible scenario on the chart! Check and make your own personal decision based on that!
Last analysis before NFP : As I mentioned yesterday, I expected the price to move towards $1808 and we saw that the price managed to grow up to $1805, now we are in an important moment and in a few minutes the latest NFP statistics of 2022 will be announced and it can affect the whole market with Bring high volatility, manage your positions in the best possible way!
Follow me for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, I'm here to help.
⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 12.02.2022
⚠️(DYOR)
❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
GOLD NFP + Unemployment Rate1. If the Non-Farm Payrolls data remains above 200K and the unemployment rate remains below 3.7%, GOLD SELLS below | 1795 -1789 |
2. If Non-Farm Payrolls data remains UNDER 200K and Unemployment Rate ABOVE 3.7% BUY GOLD BUY | 1803 |
+ confirmations
DXY BULL (2) / BEAR (1)
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Euro pauses after sharp gains, NFP loomsEUR/USD is unchanged on Friday, trading at 1.0524.
The week wraps up with one of most important releases on the calendar, US nonfarm payrolls. The robust labour market is showing signs of cooling down, as rising interest rates have slowed economic activity. Nonfarm payrolls have been falling and the trend is expected to continue, with a consensus of 200,000 for November, down from 261,000 a month earlier. With the Fed holding its policy meeting on December 14th, the NFP report will be closely watched by policy makers, who have relied on a strong job market to press ahead with an aggressive rate cycle.
The US dollar has been in retreat since Jerome Powell's speech on Wednesday. The speech was balanced, with Powell reiterating that inflation remained too high and rates would continue to rise higher. Still, the markets focussed on the fact that Powell strongly hinted the Fed would ease rates at the December meeting with a 50-bp hike, and the optimism sent equities higher and the dollar lower.
The euro has made the most of the dollar's weakness, and EUR/USD posted its best month since 2012, with gains in November of 5.3%. Still, the euro has been on a prolonged decline and started 2022 close to 1.14. The outlook for the euro is weak, as the European Commission expects the eurozone economy to decline in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023. The driver of the expected decline is the huge jump in energy prices caused by the war in Ukraine. The eurozone has been hit hard by double-digit inflation, and the ECB will have to continue raising rates, despite weak economic conditions, until it is convinced that inflation has peaked.
EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.0583, followed by a monthly line at 1.0683
There is support at 1.0490 and 1.03537
EURUSD before NFPUS jobs data coming up today. The news will cause movement so be careful.
Buys should be closed because the expected rise to 1,0540-60 has already been completed.
There will be an option for new aggressive buy trades on correction or after the news.
We expect the movement to end and reverse around 1,06.
NASDAQ - Don't Believe The Hype...Nasdaq has almost finished its bearish correction. We're looking for a rejection of the fib levels and then a break of the red trendline for confirmation to sell.
Trade Idea:
- Watch for correction to complete at fib levels
- risk entry on rejection of fib level
- safe entry on break of red trendline
- Targets: 10450, 9000
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
NZDUSD - Watch For The NFP Drop! 🩸NZDUSD is currently within a 5 wave impulse and we're in wave 5 now. We have NFP tomorrow which may reverse the market and with it, NZDUSD.
Trade Idea:
- On lower timeframe, watch for a sharp sell off
- Confirmation on break of red trendline
- Targets: 0.61 (320pips), 0.59 (500pips)
Will review price action once we move lower to see if we'll move down to structure or get ready for another impulse higher.
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
Non Farm Friday, what will happen to the DXY?Key news events due today: Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Unemployment Rate
The DXY continued to slide overnight, as the price broke below the 105-round number support level to approach the 104.60 price level.
This move was driven lower as the core PCE price index was released showing a smaller-than-expected change in inflation growth at 0.2% (Forecast: 0.3%), supporting the recent sentiment from the Federal Reserve that a slowdown in interest rate hikes could happen in December.
Look for the DXY to continue trading lower toward the 103.80 price level. However a strong employment data release today could provide some brief relief to the DXY heading into the weekend.
Rise towards 1,0550 on EURUSD We saw some misleading moves yesterday. The direction seems much clearer today.
After Powell’s press conference, we expect continuation of the rise towards 1,0550.
The best buying opportunities come with correction of the impulse movement.
The situation breaks up on break of 1,0288.
UJIf the very last candle closes bullish, early 'enterers' can get in but you will either:
1. Have a risky trade with possibility of a long pullback or
2. Watch it closely
I'm going to wait for that VERY BULLISH candle before entering. This week is NFP so take that in consideration when trading (especially a pair like UJ)
⚠️ The last TA of #Gold on November ⚠️Today, the market is not following a particular trend and is waiting for the announcement of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and JOLTS Job Openings statistics, and after that the speech of Mr. Powell (Federal Reserve Chairman)! Anyway, I have specified the important levels of supply and demand on the chart. Personally, I will wait for Point of Interest (POI) and then enter into a new position , and considering that it is the last day of the month, I will minimize my personal risk!
🔔 Important Day 🔔(The Last Day of The Month)
➖💲➖💲➖💲➖💲➖💲➖
🔴 USD : ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
💬 Usual Effect : 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency .
🟨 Why Should We Care ? Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;
➖💲➖💲➖💲➖💲➖💲➖
🔴 USD : JOLTS Job Openings
💬 Usual Effect : 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency .
➖💲➖💲➖💲➖💲➖💲➖
🔴 USD : Fed Chair Powell Speaks
📣 Speaker : Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
💬 Usual Effect : More hawkish than expected is good for currency.
🟨 Why Should We Care ? As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy !
Follow me for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, I'm here to help.
⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 11.30.2022
⚠️(DYOR)
❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️