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Nonfarm Payrolls Effect on Gold PriceOANDA:XAUUSD Key Economics Highlight in the first week of 2023 - Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate for December 2022 were reported on 6th January 2023. - Nonfarm payrolls increased by 223,000 which is higher than what the market was expecting by 200,000. - The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, which was lower than the consensus of 3.7%. On the night of January 6, 2023, this report had a significant positive impact on various financial assets especially Gold. Gold prices rose from 1,836 USD to 1,850 USD within 10 minutes of the reporting and it made a higher high on the weekly candle at 1,869.9 USD before closing the week at 1,866.1 USD Technically, Gold price almost reach its significant supply zone at around 1876.5 USD. Therefore, it would not be surprising to see the gold price drops to the first support level or trade in the range of 1825 - 1876 for a while. Fundamentally, the current US workforce participation rate still has not reached the Pre-Covid19 level and the contribution of workforce participation in US consists more aging population which could be problematic for future economy growth as there could be more labor demand but less supply since more people are going into being retired. Therefore, it seems like the market has overreacted to this report in short term. But, speculators and investors must still continue to manage their risks based on the inflation rates and potential recession of US economy Let us know what you guys think!~
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ChartTrail
EUR/USD Bounces Off Monthly Lows After U.S. NFP, Services DataThe EUR/USD pair rallied on Friday, recovering most of the previous day’s losses after U.S. employment and services data cooled down jitters around Fed’s rate increases path. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 1.0640 area, 1.15 % above its opening price. The shared currency managed to erase daily losses, which saw the pair bottoming at a one-month low of 1.0481, but remains poised to post the first weekly decline after six consecutive gains. On the data front, the Eurozone harmonized consumer price index rose by 9.2% in the year to December, below the 9.7% increase expected. Across the pond, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the U.S. economy added 223,000 jobs in December, beating the market consensus of 200,000 but decelerating from its previous reading of 256,000 (revised from 263,000). The unemployment rate dropped to 3.5% versus the 3.7% expected, despite a slight increase in the participation rate. Meanwhile, wage inflation, gauged by the Average Hourly Earnings, fell to 4.6% YoY from its previous reading of 4.8%. Economic Activity data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that the service sector in the U.S. is slowing down. The Services PMI decreased to 49.6 in December from its previous reading of 56.5, well below expectations of 55.1. The Services Employment and New Orders Indexes also showed poor results in the same period, printing at 49.8 and 45.2, respectively, both below consensus. Expectations that the Fed could increase rates by 50 bps next meeting cooled down on Friday, weighing on U.S. Treasury bond yields and on the dollar. According to the WIRP tool, the odds of a 50 bps increase dropped to 24.3% from Thursday’s 37.4%. Next week, the U.S. consumer price index will be on investors’ radars, looking for confirmation price pressures have continued to ease. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD holds a short-term positive bias according to indicators on the daily chart, while the quick bounce from recent lows showed the bulls are not ready to give up. Regarding technical levels, the following resistance points are seen at the 1.0700 mark, followed by the December highs at 1.0736. On the other hand, support levels line up at the 20-day simple moving average at 1.0610, followed by the broken descending trendline that reinforces the 1.0500 psychological level and then the one-month lows at around 1.0480.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
USD/CAD eyes Canada, US job reportsThe Canadian dollar has edged lower on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3620, up 0.36%. The first week of the new year has been busy. The Canadian dollar sparkled on Wednesday and climbed 1.4%, but has since pared most of those gains. Canada and the US will wrap up the week with the December employment reports, which could mean some volatility in the North American session. Canada's job creation in recent months has not impressed, with the exception of a massive gain of 108,300 in October. This was followed by a marginal gain of 10,100 in November, and December is expected to be even smaller, with an estimate of 8,000. The unemployment rate is forecast to inch higher to 5.2%, up from 5.1%. Canada also releases Ivey PMI, which has been stagnant over the past two months, just above the 50.0 threshold which separates contraction from expansion. The PMI is projected to drop to 51.0 for December, down from 51.4 in November. In the US, the focus will be on nonfarm payrolls and wage growth. Unemployment claims and other employment indicators show that the labour market remains resilient and there is a strong demand for workers despite a slowing economy. The ADP employment report, although not considered a reliable precursor to NFP, jumped to 235,000 in December, crushing the previous reading of 127,000 and the estimate of 150,000. The markets expect NFP to move in the opposite direction, with an estimate of 200,000, down from 263,000 in November. A soft NFP release would be an indication that the labour market may finally be weakening. For the Fed, this would be good news, as it believes that the labor market must soften in order for inflation to fall. For the markets, always hoping for a dovish pivot, a weak NFP would likely raise speculation that the Fed may be close to winding up its current tightening cycle, and this could translate into the US dollar losing ground. USD/CAD is putting pressure on resistance at 1.3628. Above, there is resistance at 1.3709 There is support at 1.3546 and 1.3476
by OANDA
DOW - NFP + Monthly low = ? FX:USDOLLAR Totally uneducated assumption but with the pandemic and recession I'd assume NFP will come back negative but who knows maybe that would encourage/force people to work to pay for increased living expenses due to inflation and rate hikes. Also the fact that people working multiple jobs for sperate companies count as a point for each job they work. 10x people working 3x jobs count for 30x people in the workforce. So not really much of an indicator of productivity but you never know... Either way, DOW (USD) is at a monthly low (support) and has bottomed out indicating new support. Price has broken the first resistance level and retested a support on Zone #1 (red) If NFP is positive, it should break the current resistance Zone #2 (yellow) and run up to Zone #3 (orange) + Possibly even higher, could be big volume due to the significance of this zone on the weekly. If it's negative i'd say we'll be retesting that weekly low again (Zone #0 Green) (*NOTE: This move will also indicate/influence the direction of the EUR/USD pair, as it is at a historical low)
FX:USDOLLARLong
by Quantified
EURUSD - Boom or BustNFP around the corner, will it strengthen USD or weaken sentiment? EURUSD is at monthly channel low, good upside potential (macro) DOW is also at monthly low, be interesting to see what run bullish as it will determine the direction of the EURUSD pair. DOW + Bullish = EURUSD Bearish Negative NFP reports could push DOW into new lows and set the EUR off on it's bull run. Also quite difficult to give an accurate estimate because rates are still so high and with so much quantitive easing post covid from both the USD and EUR it's hard to tell what will happen. Good time for reactive trading, rather than predictive.
by Quantified
6
SP500 waiting for the NFP 🦐SP500 on the 4h chart is trading between 2 structures and today's release of the NFP data can show us some break of those levels. The main outlook remains bearish at the moment and it can be risky to trade this kind of event on the last trading day of the week. How can i approach this scenario? I will wait for a break of the support area and if that will happen i will be looking for a nice short order according to the Plancton's strategy rules. –––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. • 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. • 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. • 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. • 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. • ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by InkyGrip
2
GOLD TRADE IDEA 06 JANUARYGOLD FUNDAMENTAL & TECHNICAL ANALYIS 06 JANUARY. Earlier this week we had better Jolt's job opening data and then Better ADP data & Better PMI data , reduced jobless claims Hawkish FED , DXY breaking above 105 making, Things are looking good for dollar hence bearish for gold , stocks , & XXXUSD pairs. Main today will remain on Non Form payroll & Unemployment rate and then ISM service PMI. So far with already released data , like ADP data , jobless claims & Jolts Job opening, it looks like the labor market is still solid. based on data released we are expecting better unemployment rate / and NFP numbers. So we are adopting to bearish bias in gold , indices & in XXXUSD pairs as DXY already came up on +VE side trading above 105.00 & Gold failed break above 1865 , Trade setup in gold today. Pullback sells @ 1841 , & 1844. Safer sells below 1828 & 1820 Further movement is depending upon the NFP & UnemplOyment rate and we will adopt to our main bias accordnigly Any break above 1848 & 1852 we will be adopting gold buys which should be fueled by any fundamental catalyst like BAD NFP & unemployment data. Happy NFP Day everyone ;-) Written By - Richard Market Researcher FX overseas
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Fxoverseas
$EUR - Trade idea!$EUR - Trade idea! It's been a quiet start, we had a little bullish momentum in dollar brought the eur decline a little but we are now back within the range. Even with FOMC nothing really changed imo very little market movement, we did get a pull back on metals a little. For now we on EUR 1HR. Lows: 1.05870 Highs: 1.06355 A break to either direction. If you were to look at the daily we are in a range of lows: 1.05200 areas and highs: 1.07200 areas needs break these key levels for further clarification. Lets not forget we got NFP tomorrow we could be in these ranges until then, add alerts or orders whatever is in your trade plan. Trade what you see, not what you think! Trade Journal
by Trade_Journal
1
Weekly Outlook - NFP!! (Ending 010623)First, it is NFP week. The Market is more unpredictable because manual intervention will take place. Please be aware of this when trading. Second, I'm looking for Consolidation, Manipulation, then Distribution. Initially, the market has consolidated. Next, it will drive higher, liquidating all the Bears' Shorts built in (the three levels I noted) and making the Bulls trigger happy to provoke Long positions. After their positions are built in, the market will reverse and liquidate their Stop Loses below 3780. Stay Tuned...
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by FreddyFutures
1
NFP's effect on $GOLD : 12.02.22I specified the possible scenario on the chart! Check and make your own personal decision based on that! Last analysis before NFP : As I mentioned yesterday, I expected the price to move towards $1808 and we saw that the price managed to grow up to $1805, now we are in an important moment and in a few minutes the latest NFP statistics of 2022 will be announced and it can affect the whole market with Bring high volatility, manage your positions in the best possible way! Follow me for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, I'm here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 12.02.2022 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
36
GOLD NFP + Unemployment Rate1. If the Non-Farm Payrolls data remains above 200K and the unemployment rate remains below 3.7%, GOLD SELLS below | 1795 -1789 | 2. If Non-Farm Payrolls data remains UNDER 200K and Unemployment Rate ABOVE 3.7% BUY GOLD BUY | 1803 | + confirmations DXY BULL (2) / BEAR (1) ╔═╦╗╔╦╗╔═╦═╦╦╦╦╗╔═╗ ║╚╣║║║╚╣╚╣╔╣╔╣║╚╣═╣ ╠╗║╚╝║║╠╗║╚╣║║║║║═╣ ╚═╩══╩═╩═╩═╩╝╚╩═╩═╝
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Tarsi_Fx
Euro pauses after sharp gains, NFP loomsEUR/USD is unchanged on Friday, trading at 1.0524. The week wraps up with one of most important releases on the calendar, US nonfarm payrolls. The robust labour market is showing signs of cooling down, as rising interest rates have slowed economic activity. Nonfarm payrolls have been falling and the trend is expected to continue, with a consensus of 200,000 for November, down from 261,000 a month earlier. With the Fed holding its policy meeting on December 14th, the NFP report will be closely watched by policy makers, who have relied on a strong job market to press ahead with an aggressive rate cycle. The US dollar has been in retreat since Jerome Powell's speech on Wednesday. The speech was balanced, with Powell reiterating that inflation remained too high and rates would continue to rise higher. Still, the markets focussed on the fact that Powell strongly hinted the Fed would ease rates at the December meeting with a 50-bp hike, and the optimism sent equities higher and the dollar lower. The euro has made the most of the dollar's weakness, and EUR/USD posted its best month since 2012, with gains in November of 5.3%. Still, the euro has been on a prolonged decline and started 2022 close to 1.14. The outlook for the euro is weak, as the European Commission expects the eurozone economy to decline in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023. The driver of the expected decline is the huge jump in energy prices caused by the war in Ukraine. The eurozone has been hit hard by double-digit inflation, and the ECB will have to continue raising rates, despite weak economic conditions, until it is convinced that inflation has peaked. EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.0583, followed by a monthly line at 1.0683 There is support at 1.0490 and 1.03537
by OANDA