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Nfp

EUR/USD dips to 1-month lowThe euro has fallen for three straight sessions and has extended its losses on Tuesday. Earlier in the day, EUR/USD fell below the 1.07 line for the first time since Jan. 23. German and eurozone numbers have been soft this week, adding to the euro's woes. Eurozone retail sales fell 2.7% in December, worse than the estimate of -2.5% and well off the November read of 1.2%. German Industrial Production came in at -3.2% in December, down from 0.4% in November and below the expectation of -0.6%. Germany is the locomotive of the bloc but the engine is stuttering, which is bad news for the rest of the eurozone. GDP in Q4 contracted by 0.2%, retail sales for December slumped by 5.3% and Manufacturing PMI remains mired in contraction territory. The US dollar received a much-needed boost from the January nonfarm payroll report, as the 517,000 gain crushed expectations. There are no major releases out of the US today, but Fed Chair Powell will participate in a panel discussion. If Powell strikes a hawkish tone, the US dollar could extend its gains. There are a host of Fed members speaking this week, and if they reiterate the "higher for longer" stance that the Fed continues to embrace, the US dollar could continue to move north. How will the Fed react to the stellar employment report?  Fed member Mary Daly called the employment release a "wow number" and said that the Fed's December forecast of a peak rate of 5.1% was a "good indicator" of Fed policy. With the benchmark rate currently at 4.5%-4.75%, we're likely looking at two more rate hikes, exactly what Jerome Powell said at the FOMC meeting last week. The spike in job creation has raised hopes that the Fed can pull off a "soft landing" and there is even talk on Wall Street of a "no landing" which would mean that a recession could be avoided. 1.0758 is a weak support line, followed by 1.0633 There is resistance at 1.0873 and 1.0954
by OANDA
AUDUSD: TP2 SUCCESSFULLY HITThe market closed at 0.69205 on Friday following the drop that resulted from NFP, just a couple of pips before hitting my TP2 at 0.69078. I cought the trade right from its inception. TP1 was hit at 0.69979. . Then 0.69078 was finally hit as price pushed down slightly before bouncing back up. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Price action, risk management, and patience are extremely important in this business.
by SMCSmartSniper1
EUR/USD Erases Weekly Gains After Impressive NFP ReportThe U.S. dollar bounced sharply on Friday, reversing weekly losses against the euro as a stunning nonfarm payrolls report boosted expectations the Fed would stick to its hawkish stance. U.S. yields, and the greenback, jumped after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the U.S. economy added 517,000 jobs in January, beating by far the market consensus of 185,000, almost doubling December’s 260,000 gain. Other details of the nonfarm payrolls report showed the unemployment rate edged down to 3.4% from 3.5% the previous month, while annual wage inflation, as measured by the Average Hourly Earnings, eased to 4.4% in January. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at the 1.0810, 0.9% below its opening price, extending its pullback from the post-Fed 1.1032 high. The pair is also poised to post a weekly loss of 0.5%. Following the solid job figures, U.S. Treasury yields soared across the curve, propelling the dollar’s rally. The 2, 5 and 10-year bond rates rose around 4% each, to 4.27%, 3.64% and 3.51%, respectively. In addition, markets are fully pricing in a 25 bps hike in March, while at the beginning of the session, there were some bets of the Fed not hiking. Earlier in the session, S&P Global data from the Eurozone showed that January Global Composite PMI rose to 50.3 versus the 50.2 expected, while the Services PMI jumped to 50.8, also beating the consensus of 50.7. From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD maintains a positive outlook on the weekly chart. However, the shorter-term perspective has deteriorated after last sessions’ pullback. The price has slid below the 20-day SMA but holds above the 100- and the 200-day SMAs, which are about to complete a bullish crossover. Furthermore, indicators show increasing bearish interest as the RSI plummeted near its midline while the MACD prints higher red bars. A close below the 20-day SMA could add some pressure over the pair, exposing following support areas at 1.0800 and 1.0770. On the other hand, the next resistance levels line up at 1.0900, followed by 1.1035 and 1.1085.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
1
USDJPY I NFP Results! Goal Achieved!💰Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! **USDJPY NFP Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
15
NFP set to be Bearish, Here's Why 😉👇After some careful analysis I've come to the conclusion that the NFP may want to push the market into a downfall. The week has been quite bullish since the week started and a weekly significant high has already been taken, I believe it's time the market corrected some price imbalances it left out on the rush to the upside. The Fair Value Gap highlighted by that triangle is best visible from the 5 Min Chart to see where the idea is coming from. Let's Play a Game, If I'm Right, You Follow... deal 🤝 Enjoy 😉 NOTE: NOTICED MY FIRST POST HAD 2 CHARTS OVERLAPPING, THIS IS A REPOST
UShort
by XeroxFTC
2
NFP set to be Bearish on NASDAQ 👇😉, Here's WhyAfter some careful analysis I've come to the conclusion that the NFP may want to push the market into a downfall. The week has been quite bullish since the week started and a weekly significant high has already been taken, I believe it's time the market corrected some price imbalances it left out on the rush to the upside. The Fair Value Gap highlighted by that triangle is best visible from the 5 Min Chart to see where the idea is coming from. Let's Play a Game, If I'm Right, You Follow... deal 🤝 Enjoy 😉
UShort
by XeroxFTC
NFP Possible opportunity and trading setupsToday's NFP print is coming in 2h and 30m, trading plan following. In the last couple of days we got higher Labor data with Jobless claims, Jolts data printing way better than market expectations, and these 2 components fit into the NFP this might mean that on the aggregate the 185K US NFP estimation might be slightly higher than that. Anyways, let's move into the NFP now. The bulk of market participants are between 150-200K and for exaggerated movements, we should look for anything below 150K for US$ shorting or 200K for US$ long. As a second layer of risk, we can use 125K to the downside and 225K to the upside which will give us the ultimate trading conviction. US NFP printing higher than 200K (Risk x1) US NFP printing higher than 225K (Risk x2) EURUSD - GBPUSD - GOLD - BTC - SNP - NDX 🔽 USDJPY 🔼 US NFP printing lower than 150K (Risk x1) US NFP printing lower than 125K (Risk x2) NZDUSD - AUDUSD - GOLD - BTC - SNP - NDX 🔼 -Extra notes- Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) and Unemployment rate need to be considered as a second layer of conviction into this trade setup... They are similarly essential and if they give a very different picture than NFP then we should be considering this in our analysis and either deduct any risk from our positions or even close our positions after all. Average hourly earnings YoY have a previous Result of 4.6% and an estimation of 4.3% above 4.4% or below 4.2%. The vast majority of the analysts will be surprised by a result of 4.2% and below or 4.4% and above. The US Unemployment rate has a previous result of 3.5% and an estimation forecast of 3.6%. The vast majority of the analysts will be surprised with a result of 3.4% and below and 3.7% or above. Consider the above as possible conflicting factors or boosting factors to the NFP result, also don't forget that the Unemployment rate lower is US$ hawkish, and the Unemployment rate higher is US$ dovish.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Investing_Bridge
EUR/USD Trims Fed-inspired Gains After ECB DecisionThe EUR/USD pair erased a significant part of Wednesday’s Fed-induced rally as European Central Bank’s (ECB) President Christine Lagarde delivered a cautious press conference, which weighed on the euro. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD trades at the 1.0915 area, posting a 0.65% daily loss, after printing its highest level in nine months at 1.1085. At the same time, the U.S. dollar managed to stage a noticeable rebound as its DXY index gains 0.5%, around 101.70. The ECB decided to raise its main interest rates by 50 bps, being the highest level since November 2008 for the deposit facility rate, which now stands at 2.5%. The monetary policy statement confirmed another 50 bp hike in March, but during the press conference, Lagarde only committed to a “strong intent” and limited the hawkish tone. A dovish tilt was also perceived as the inflation risk was described as more balanced, with the consumer inflation coming down from cycle highs while economic activity is doing better than expected. On the other hand, the dollar recovered across the board on Thursday, trimming post-Fed losses. At the same time, markets continued to cheer Jerome Powell’s confirmation that the disinflationary process has begun as U.S. bond yields continued to fall, although they ended the day away from lows, while the Wall Street indexes extended gains except for the Dow Jones that closed nearly flat. On Friday, the nonfarm payrolls report will be release, with expectations pointing to a 185,000 job increase in January. From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD maintains the short-term bullish bias, with the price hovering near multi-month highs and above its main moving averages, while indicators remain in positive territory despite losing some bullish momentum. On the upside, the following resistance levels are seen at 1.1035 and the 1.1085 high, followed by the 1.1100 psychological area. On the flip side, support levels could be found at 1.0880, and the 20-day simple moving average at 1.0832.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
2
Nonfarm Payrolls Effect on Gold PriceOANDA:XAUUSD Key Economics Highlight in the first week of 2023 - Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate for December 2022 were reported on 6th January 2023. - Nonfarm payrolls increased by 223,000 which is higher than what the market was expecting by 200,000. - The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, which was lower than the consensus of 3.7%. On the night of January 6, 2023, this report had a significant positive impact on various financial assets especially Gold. Gold prices rose from 1,836 USD to 1,850 USD within 10 minutes of the reporting and it made a higher high on the weekly candle at 1,869.9 USD before closing the week at 1,866.1 USD Technically, Gold price almost reach its significant supply zone at around 1876.5 USD. Therefore, it would not be surprising to see the gold price drops to the first support level or trade in the range of 1825 - 1876 for a while. Fundamentally, the current US workforce participation rate still has not reached the Pre-Covid19 level and the contribution of workforce participation in US consists more aging population which could be problematic for future economy growth as there could be more labor demand but less supply since more people are going into being retired. Therefore, it seems like the market has overreacted to this report in short term. But, speculators and investors must still continue to manage their risks based on the inflation rates and potential recession of US economy Let us know what you guys think!~
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ChartTrail
EUR/USD Bounces Off Monthly Lows After U.S. NFP, Services DataThe EUR/USD pair rallied on Friday, recovering most of the previous day’s losses after U.S. employment and services data cooled down jitters around Fed’s rate increases path. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 1.0640 area, 1.15 % above its opening price. The shared currency managed to erase daily losses, which saw the pair bottoming at a one-month low of 1.0481, but remains poised to post the first weekly decline after six consecutive gains. On the data front, the Eurozone harmonized consumer price index rose by 9.2% in the year to December, below the 9.7% increase expected. Across the pond, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the U.S. economy added 223,000 jobs in December, beating the market consensus of 200,000 but decelerating from its previous reading of 256,000 (revised from 263,000). The unemployment rate dropped to 3.5% versus the 3.7% expected, despite a slight increase in the participation rate. Meanwhile, wage inflation, gauged by the Average Hourly Earnings, fell to 4.6% YoY from its previous reading of 4.8%. Economic Activity data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that the service sector in the U.S. is slowing down. The Services PMI decreased to 49.6 in December from its previous reading of 56.5, well below expectations of 55.1. The Services Employment and New Orders Indexes also showed poor results in the same period, printing at 49.8 and 45.2, respectively, both below consensus. Expectations that the Fed could increase rates by 50 bps next meeting cooled down on Friday, weighing on U.S. Treasury bond yields and on the dollar. According to the WIRP tool, the odds of a 50 bps increase dropped to 24.3% from Thursday’s 37.4%. Next week, the U.S. consumer price index will be on investors’ radars, looking for confirmation price pressures have continued to ease. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD holds a short-term positive bias according to indicators on the daily chart, while the quick bounce from recent lows showed the bulls are not ready to give up. Regarding technical levels, the following resistance points are seen at the 1.0700 mark, followed by the December highs at 1.0736. On the other hand, support levels line up at the 20-day simple moving average at 1.0610, followed by the broken descending trendline that reinforces the 1.0500 psychological level and then the one-month lows at around 1.0480.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
USD/CAD eyes Canada, US job reportsThe Canadian dollar has edged lower on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3620, up 0.36%. The first week of the new year has been busy. The Canadian dollar sparkled on Wednesday and climbed 1.4%, but has since pared most of those gains. Canada and the US will wrap up the week with the December employment reports, which could mean some volatility in the North American session. Canada's job creation in recent months has not impressed, with the exception of a massive gain of 108,300 in October. This was followed by a marginal gain of 10,100 in November, and December is expected to be even smaller, with an estimate of 8,000. The unemployment rate is forecast to inch higher to 5.2%, up from 5.1%. Canada also releases Ivey PMI, which has been stagnant over the past two months, just above the 50.0 threshold which separates contraction from expansion. The PMI is projected to drop to 51.0 for December, down from 51.4 in November. In the US, the focus will be on nonfarm payrolls and wage growth. Unemployment claims and other employment indicators show that the labour market remains resilient and there is a strong demand for workers despite a slowing economy. The ADP employment report, although not considered a reliable precursor to NFP, jumped to 235,000 in December, crushing the previous reading of 127,000 and the estimate of 150,000. The markets expect NFP to move in the opposite direction, with an estimate of 200,000, down from 263,000 in November. A soft NFP release would be an indication that the labour market may finally be weakening. For the Fed, this would be good news, as it believes that the labor market must soften in order for inflation to fall. For the markets, always hoping for a dovish pivot, a weak NFP would likely raise speculation that the Fed may be close to winding up its current tightening cycle, and this could translate into the US dollar losing ground. USD/CAD is putting pressure on resistance at 1.3628. Above, there is resistance at 1.3709 There is support at 1.3546 and 1.3476
by OANDA