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DAX - Up Up & Away!DAX We've had European indices out-perform compared to US indices, this would be due to international opportunities increase this has been executing for while a hedge against US, we look at US yields we are 5% roughly now that into consideration of going into US indices the need of making a return is relative high, now compared to the opportunities and growth of Europe! In my previous posts you can see FTSE100 that idea playing out well. Now I am sharing the DAX chart as I think we could even re-test those highs that has been tested couple times, a break through key resistance where we are currently at the momentum is still on long side and targets would be 16250 areas and look that 1.618 Fib. However, if we break below 15150 areas and break out down side of this beautiful channel then I'd expect 50 EMA areas to be your target areas. My thoughts overall, we really need pay attention to DXY where that's going to play further, daily close perhaps below of ranges we are at a pull back will occur but we do have NFP and if that is above let's say 220k and is strong number higher expect DXY to rally yields, and we also need to take not only NFP into consideration this week, let's not forget next week we have CPI. Take in all this important US data, and then we need think is market still pricing just 25 basis point hike or will we go 50, currently its pricing 25...Time will tell! I still think housing crises will increase and the automotive industry will face further issues. Key tip: Don't forget to look at the bigger picture! Have a great week ahead, Trade Journal
XETR:DAX
by Trade_Journal
Key news events for the weekIt might be a big week head for the markets. Monday CHF CPI data release. The inflation gauge for the Swiss is expected to be lower than previous, signaling a slowdown in inflation growth. Could result in some weakness in the CHF if markets anticipate no more rate hikes to come from the SNB. Tuesday Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision. Another 25bps rate hike to come? However, the AUDUSD has often traded lower following the release of the news. Could the same thing happen again? Fed Chair Powell testifies during the US session. This could lead to increased volatility on the DXY, but watch what Powell says! Pivot? Or continue with the rate increases? Wednesday Bank of Canada (BoC) is set to hold rates at 4.50%. Unlikely that we'll see a surprise given how recent Canadian CPI has been released lower than previous (signaling a possible reversal in inflation). Friday Bank of Japan (BoJ) is set to announce its monetary policy decision. This is Kuroda's last monetary policy meeting as Governor. While a surprise is unlikely, he might lay the foundations for his predecessor. Expect significant volatility on the Japanese Yen. Since it is the first Friday of the month, look out for the release of the US Non-Farm Employment Change (NFP). The data shouldn't surprise like the previous month, however, some stability in the employment data could see markets reconsider the FOMC's stance on further rate hikes, leading the DXY to trade lower. Whatever the news, watch out for my daily posts on the specific currency pairs as I update you on possible setups and price levels. Also, tune in to the Daily Live Stream at 3pm (GMT+8)!
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
4
XAUUSD SHORT BIAS IDEAHello all! Once again my projection played out perfectly (last week XAUUSD video analysis). Now, retracement is playing out, looking at the next Daily Supply Zone (refined to 4H), GOLD is heading towards the zone! I will look to enter on a CONFIRMATION ENTRY ONLY! I will look for LIQUIDITY to build up just below (Potential outcome), then monitor LTF for a POI to follow the next leg down on GOLD! In other cases, GOLD may just push up, and mitigate the zone before NFP, and sell hard after NFP release! But, we will see! We can only project the market! :) Take care!
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDShort
by Nedal13
USDCAD: Top of the range?Looking back over this pair, it's been ranging for a long time. The candlestick patterns are clearly showing rejection, we now have a doji to back up the change of direction potential. Fundamentally it seems hat it doesn't matter how good the US news is, the dollar's fate is sealed. Interesting to see how NFP goes on Friday (but still can't see it getting much past 105.5 even with positive news). I'll probably wait on this pair until after the event has calmed down before getting involved. Overall I'm bearish on this, waiting for a good entry for at least a 4:1 score initially, but think it'll go further.
Short
by Finchcliffe
1
Looking ahead into March 2023 (DXY)In February, we saw the US Dollar Index (DXY) reject the 100.85 price area to climb strongly to the upside due to several key events 1) Federal Reserve hiked rates to 4.75%. Although the initial reaction was a big drop to test the low of 100.85, the comments accompanying the rate decision indicated that further rate increases could be expected as inflation has eased but remains elevated. 2) Surprising Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) A massive surprise to the market with a print of 517K (Forecast: 193K) this signaled that the US economy was still performing strongly, despite the ongoing interest rate increases. The DXY shot up to test the 103.75 price level over the next couple of days following the NFP release. 3) Elevated Consumer Price Index (CPI) Markets were widely anticipating that US inflation growth should have slowed down from 6.5% to 6.2%. However, the CPI data was released at 6.4%, which indicated a slight slowdown (just not as much as anticipated). This played to the previous narrative from the FOMC that while inflation was easing, it was still elevated. With an increased likelihood that the FOMC would continue with its interest rate hikes, the DXY climbed steadily to the upside, breaking the 103.75 level to climb steadily up to the 105.50 resistance level. Now as we head into March and the DXY is retracing from the 105.50 price level, where could prices head to? In the lead up to the major news events, the DXY could continue to retrace lower to retest the 104 price level and support area. 1) Will we see a repeat surprise on the NFP? It is probably unlikely that we'll get a massive surprise again for the NFP this month. However, any positive data release could see the DXY renew its climb to the upside. 2) Focus is on the CPI As indicated above, February's CPI was released at 6.4% which was higher than expected. A similar release this month would pretty much cement the Federal Reserve's decision regarding a rate hike, bringing further upside to the DXY. 3) Federal Funds Rate In the recently released meeting minutes, it was highlighted that while all members supported a 25bps rate hike, some would have supported a decision to raise rates by 50bps. This shows a level of hawkishness within the FOMC, which could be crucial in the decision this month. Employment and CPI data would be the deciding factor between a 25 or 50bps rate hike. However, remember that the terminal rate is 5.25% and with rates at 4.75%, we are very close!! We'll have to pay attention to comments regarding a shift in the terminal rates and increased speculation about a pivot to come from the FOMC. Based on the points discussed above, I am anticipating overall further upside for the DXY, but Price could first retest the 103.75 to 104 support area. If the support level holds, this could be a good base for price to rebound and trade back toward the 105.50 resistance area. Beyond that, the next resistance level is at 107. Alternatively, if the price breaks strongly below 104, then the next support level at 102.60 would come into play.
TVC:DXYLong
by JinDao_Tai
6
GBPZAR SHORTThe XA leg of the Harmonic is a Double top in itself. The huge wicks on that leg suggests large institutional volumes trapped in that region. The CD leg just broke through the last order block and we see a confluence on the 1.272 Fib and 2.000 Fib where the CD leg completes. The H1 also gives a beautiful crab pattern competing around the same region. I would say this move may wait for the release oof Non-farm data for a violent take off in the Bearish side and if not enough volume is taken then we may see a retest and a gradual Bearish movement.
Short
by harveygoldfx
1
$USDJPY: Dollar reversal?I suspect we are seeing a large scale reversal in the dollar, which will be further confirmed if CPI favors renewed hawkishness surpassing current consensus estimates (consensus was already shaken by NFP yesterday, and would be further shocked if CPI allows Powell to keep hiking for longer than expected, or even do larger hikes as well). The BOJ governor change is looming as well, and with it the retirement of YCC apparently (yield curve controls). Overall, a decent trade if you need to hedge some equity risk in your portfolio or if you are an avid Forex trader already. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
AUDUSD:Potential Breakout due to strong USD envrionmentHey Traders, based on the last strong NFP numbers that were out of expectations with 517,000 new jobs created in January, retail sales smashing expectations of 1.9% with 3%, CPI and other strong USD data we can notice that the market is pricing more rate hikes, and we expect the USD to continue outperforming until the next fed decision on March that will clarify more the USD path. in case of a breakout on AUDUSD chart i would monitor a retrace around 0.685 zone. i would also like to give a risk management advice to traders, i personally risk between 0.5% to 2% per trade so even if i'm in the wrong path that would take me a bunch of consecutive losing trades to get my account marginated which is too far. so for example if you risk 1% per trade that will take you more than a hundred consecutive losing trades to lose your account. but if you risk 10 times the recommended amount for example a 20% risk per trade that means 4-5 consecutive losing trades will knock your account out from the market. Please feel free to ask me questions regarding fundamentals and technicals in the comment section! Trade safe, Joe. source of USD data: www.forexfactory.com
Short
by JoeChampion
26
EUR/USD dips to 1-month lowThe euro has fallen for three straight sessions and has extended its losses on Tuesday. Earlier in the day, EUR/USD fell below the 1.07 line for the first time since Jan. 23. German and eurozone numbers have been soft this week, adding to the euro's woes. Eurozone retail sales fell 2.7% in December, worse than the estimate of -2.5% and well off the November read of 1.2%. German Industrial Production came in at -3.2% in December, down from 0.4% in November and below the expectation of -0.6%. Germany is the locomotive of the bloc but the engine is stuttering, which is bad news for the rest of the eurozone. GDP in Q4 contracted by 0.2%, retail sales for December slumped by 5.3% and Manufacturing PMI remains mired in contraction territory. The US dollar received a much-needed boost from the January nonfarm payroll report, as the 517,000 gain crushed expectations. There are no major releases out of the US today, but Fed Chair Powell will participate in a panel discussion. If Powell strikes a hawkish tone, the US dollar could extend its gains. There are a host of Fed members speaking this week, and if they reiterate the "higher for longer" stance that the Fed continues to embrace, the US dollar could continue to move north. How will the Fed react to the stellar employment report?  Fed member Mary Daly called the employment release a "wow number" and said that the Fed's December forecast of a peak rate of 5.1% was a "good indicator" of Fed policy. With the benchmark rate currently at 4.5%-4.75%, we're likely looking at two more rate hikes, exactly what Jerome Powell said at the FOMC meeting last week. The spike in job creation has raised hopes that the Fed can pull off a "soft landing" and there is even talk on Wall Street of a "no landing" which would mean that a recession could be avoided. 1.0758 is a weak support line, followed by 1.0633 There is resistance at 1.0873 and 1.0954
by OANDA
AUDUSD: TP2 SUCCESSFULLY HITThe market closed at 0.69205 on Friday following the drop that resulted from NFP, just a couple of pips before hitting my TP2 at 0.69078. I cought the trade right from its inception. TP1 was hit at 0.69979. . Then 0.69078 was finally hit as price pushed down slightly before bouncing back up. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Price action, risk management, and patience are extremely important in this business.
by SMCSmartSniper1
EUR/USD Erases Weekly Gains After Impressive NFP ReportThe U.S. dollar bounced sharply on Friday, reversing weekly losses against the euro as a stunning nonfarm payrolls report boosted expectations the Fed would stick to its hawkish stance. U.S. yields, and the greenback, jumped after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the U.S. economy added 517,000 jobs in January, beating by far the market consensus of 185,000, almost doubling December’s 260,000 gain. Other details of the nonfarm payrolls report showed the unemployment rate edged down to 3.4% from 3.5% the previous month, while annual wage inflation, as measured by the Average Hourly Earnings, eased to 4.4% in January. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at the 1.0810, 0.9% below its opening price, extending its pullback from the post-Fed 1.1032 high. The pair is also poised to post a weekly loss of 0.5%. Following the solid job figures, U.S. Treasury yields soared across the curve, propelling the dollar’s rally. The 2, 5 and 10-year bond rates rose around 4% each, to 4.27%, 3.64% and 3.51%, respectively. In addition, markets are fully pricing in a 25 bps hike in March, while at the beginning of the session, there were some bets of the Fed not hiking. Earlier in the session, S&P Global data from the Eurozone showed that January Global Composite PMI rose to 50.3 versus the 50.2 expected, while the Services PMI jumped to 50.8, also beating the consensus of 50.7. From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD maintains a positive outlook on the weekly chart. However, the shorter-term perspective has deteriorated after last sessions’ pullback. The price has slid below the 20-day SMA but holds above the 100- and the 200-day SMAs, which are about to complete a bullish crossover. Furthermore, indicators show increasing bearish interest as the RSI plummeted near its midline while the MACD prints higher red bars. A close below the 20-day SMA could add some pressure over the pair, exposing following support areas at 1.0800 and 1.0770. On the other hand, the next resistance levels line up at 1.0900, followed by 1.1035 and 1.1085.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
1
USDJPY I NFP Results! Goal Achieved!💰Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! **USDJPY NFP Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
15
NFP set to be Bearish, Here's Why 😉👇After some careful analysis I've come to the conclusion that the NFP may want to push the market into a downfall. The week has been quite bullish since the week started and a weekly significant high has already been taken, I believe it's time the market corrected some price imbalances it left out on the rush to the upside. The Fair Value Gap highlighted by that triangle is best visible from the 5 Min Chart to see where the idea is coming from. Let's Play a Game, If I'm Right, You Follow... deal 🤝 Enjoy 😉 NOTE: NOTICED MY FIRST POST HAD 2 CHARTS OVERLAPPING, THIS IS A REPOST
UShort
by XeroxFTC
2
NFP set to be Bearish on NASDAQ 👇😉, Here's WhyAfter some careful analysis I've come to the conclusion that the NFP may want to push the market into a downfall. The week has been quite bullish since the week started and a weekly significant high has already been taken, I believe it's time the market corrected some price imbalances it left out on the rush to the upside. The Fair Value Gap highlighted by that triangle is best visible from the 5 Min Chart to see where the idea is coming from. Let's Play a Game, If I'm Right, You Follow... deal 🤝 Enjoy 😉
UShort
by XeroxFTC