NFP bullish or not?NFP is in sideways range if btc take momentum then it will take breakout & give good bullish momentum.
dont take entry now just wait for breakout or breakdown
Nfp
Gold NFP potential corrections / retracement key levelsIf FED will not disappoints market with a 50bps market pricing in rate cut, then some key levels are plotted that is due for corrections / retracement.
Later all eyes will focus on Powell speech whether he will take an aggressive approach for November FOMC.
USD/JPY drops below 141, US CPI drops to 2.5%The Japanese yen has extended its gains on Wednesday. USD/JPY fell as low as 140.70, its lowest level this year, before paring much of the losses. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 141.71 at the time of writing, down 0.52% on the day.
The hotly-anticipated US inflation report didn’t shake up the markets as it was pretty much as advertised. Headline CPI eased to 2.5% y/y in August, down from 2.9% in July and matching expectations. This was the fifth straight decline in headline inflation.
Monthly, CPI was unchanged at 0.2%, in line with the market estimate. Core CPI was unchanged at 3.2% y/y, matching the market estimate. Monthly, the core rate ticked up to 0.3%, up from the July gain of 0.2% and the market estimate of 0.2%.
The inflation report comes just one week before the Federal Reserve meeting on Sept. 18. Market rate cut odds have been swinging wildly as it remains unclear whether the Fed will cut by a modest 25 basis points or a jumbo 50-bps cut.
The odds of a 50-bps move surged to 59% after the soft nonfarm payroll report on Friday, but were down to 27% just prior to today’s inflation report and have fallen to 15% following the release, according to the CME’s FedWatch. This puts the likelihood of a 25-bps cut at 85%, although we’re likely to see the odds continue to shift in the days ahead.
The Bank of Japan meets on Sept. 20, two days after the Fed meeting. The BoJ is looking to continue tightening but will likely stay on the sidelines next week, as BoJ officials have ruled out a rate hike while the financial markets are unsteady. That could mean that the BoJ will push off a rate hike until December or January.
USD/JPY tested support at 141.54 earlier. Below, there is support at 140.79
There is resistance at 142.80 and 143.31
BTCUSD | Trade ideaBTCUSD is trading weak ahead of the US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data, having hit a low of $55,282 and currently hovering around $55,958.
The number of large investors holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC has reached a one-month high of 16,120, indicating that whales are buying BTC at lower levels.
BTC ETFs have experienced an outflow of $211 million, marking the seventh consecutive day of withdrawals.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has dropped to 57% from 70% a week ago.
US Markets:
NASDAQ (negative correlation with BTC): Bearish but neutral for BTC, trading weak ahead of the NFP data. A close above 20,000 could push the index to 20,500.
Technical Analysis:
BTCUSD is trading below the short-term 34-EMA and 55-EMA, as well as the long-term 200-EMA on the 4-hour chart, indicating weakness.
On the daily chart, BTC remains below both short- and long-term moving averages, confirming minor weakness.
Support Levels:
Minor support at $54,000. A break below could push BTC to $53,000/$50,000/$46,000.
Bullish Scenario:
Primary supply zone: $57,000. A break above this level could confirm intraday bullish momentum with potential targets of $60,000/$61,800/$63,000/$65,000/$67,000/$70,000.
Secondary barrier: $70,000. A close above could target $75,000/$80,000.
EUR/USD dips after US payrolls misses estimateThe euro has edged lower on Friday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.1088 in the North American session at the time of writing, down 0.20%.
Today’s US nonfarm payrolls wasn’t a disaster but certainly nothing to smile about. The economy created 142 thousand new jobs in August, better than the July gain of 114 thousand but short of the market estimate of 160 thousand. The unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.2%, in line with expectations and a shade below the market estimate of 4.3%.
The US dollar hasn’t shown much reaction to the employment report. However, expectations for an oversize 50-basis point cut from the Federal Reserve in September have shot up to 59%, up from 43% prior to the nonfarm payrolls release, according to CME’s FedWatch.
Had nonfarm payrolls beaten expectations, it likely would have cemented a 25-bps cut. The soft reading means that the Fed meeting is live, with investors unsure about the size of the expected rate cut. The US will release CPI and retail sales before the Fed meeting and any surprises from these releases could impact on the rate decision.
Germany’s economy continues to flounder, which doesn’t bode well for the eurozone economy. German industrial production, released today, declined 2.4% m/m in July, down from a 1.7% gain in June and shy of the market estimate of -0.3%. Manufacturing declined across the board and the automotive sector was especially weak. Yearly, industrial output declined by 5.3% in July, compared to a 3.7% decline in June.
The European Central Bank meets on Sept. 12 and is widely expected to trim rates after an initial cut in July. Inflation has been tamed and is close to the 2% target and the eurozone economy is struggling. The ECB wants to avoid a recession and a rate cut would provide a boost to the economy and provide relief for consumers.
EUR/USD is testing support at 1.1082. Below, there is support at 1.1044
There is resistance at 1.1119 and 1.1102
this is my NFP Gold Setup shorting ... tight sl #xauusdalready a good 2 percent of profit locked in lets see what nfp does remember news are in place to simply accelerate the market and move it where it was fundamentally supposed to move.
NOT financial advice im learning gold too...)))
TH KOG REPORT - NFP THE KOG REPORT – NFP
This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price.
Quick NFP report today as we’re most likely not going to be trading the event due to already having completed our targets for the week. We have plotted the key levels together with the immediate red boxes on the chart. We have key level support below at the 2500-2495 region and the bias as bullish above with potential price targets of 2530/2535 and on the break up into the 2550-55 region which is where we may stall and get a RIP.
Breaking below the 2500 region will entail patience as we would like to see how long we go before a setup presents itself. It’s going to be a risky NFP and extreme levels are important, forget about immediate SnR, this is irrelevant in this scenario.
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
ASX 200 futures look ominous heading into NFPIts failure to retest 8,000 after a feeble 2-day recovery this week looks like it may not take much to topple ASX 200 futures for another leg lower. And with an all-important NFP report lined up and traders heavily focused on minor signs of weakness, the path of least resistance could well be lower. Matt Simpson take a quick look.
Yen extends gains on solid wage growth, consumer spending nextThe Japanese yen has posted gains on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 143.27 at the time of writing, down 0.33% on the day. The yen continues to pummel the US dollar and is up 1.9% this week. Since July 1, the yen has surged a massive 10.7%.
Average cash earnings in Japan rose 3.6% y/y in July, down from 4.5% in June, which was the highest since January 1997. Still, this beat the market estimate of 3.1%. Wages are a key factor as to how soon the Bank of Japan could raise interest rates.
Inflation has been moving higher but the BoJ wants to see increased wage growth as well in order to achieve the Bank’s target of sustainable inflation at 2%. Japanese firms agreed to a huge wage increase of 5.1% for 2024 and this is being reflected in solid wage growth.
Japan’s economy is showing signs of recovery and consumers are opening their wallets. Household spending will be released early Friday and is expected to rebound with a gain of 1.2% y/y in July, following a 1.4% decline in June.
In the US, all eyes are on Friday’s employment report, specifically nonfarm payrolls. After a lower-than-expected gain of 114 thousand in July, the markets expect a gain of 160 thousand in August. The weak July numbers triggered a meltdown in the financial markets and investors remain uneasy.
The Federal Reserve is poised to deliver a milestone rate cut on Sept. 18. The likelihood of a 25 bps cut stands at 61% and a 50 bps cut at 39%, according to CME’s FedWatch and these odds could change after the US employment report.
USD/JPY has pushed below support at 143.57 and tested support at 142.91 earlier
There is resistance at 144.10 and 144.76
USDJPY I ADP Non-Farm Report Trading Plan Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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Thanks for your continued support!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
US indeces pre market TuesdayHere's a breakdown of why the S&P 500 might drop to the next green zone based on the technical analysis depicted in the chart:
1. Resistance Zone (Upper Red Box)
The chart highlights a resistance zone near the top, marked by a red box. This zone represents a price level where the S&P 500 has struggled to move higher and has reversed several times in the past.
The price has recently touched this resistance zone and failed to break through it, indicating that selling pressure is stronger at this level.
2. Support Zone (Lower Green Box)
The green box at the bottom represents a support zone, which is a price level where the index has previously found buying interest and reversed upward.
The chart suggests that the price could potentially drop back to this support zone if the current downtrend continues.
3. Recent Price Action
The price action within the last few candlesticks shows a downward movement after touching the resistance zone, which is depicted by the downward arrow.
This suggests that sellers have taken control, and the price is likely to continue moving lower.
4. Breakdown of Support Levels
The price appears to be breaking down through minor support levels (smaller green zones within the red box), which could indicate that the market is losing bullish momentum and could head towards the lower support zone.
5. Trading Setup
The chart suggests a short (sell) trade setup, where the expected movement is for the price to drop towards the lower green zone.
The green arrow indicates the anticipated direction of the price movement, while the red and green shaded areas likely represent the stop-loss and take-profit levels, respectively.
Conclusion
Based on the chart's technical analysis, the S&P 500 is expected to decline to the next green support zone due to the strong resistance at the current level, recent bearish price action, and the potential breakdown of intermediate support levels. If the price reaches the lower green zone, it might find support and possibly reverse, but until then, the outlook is bearish.
XAUUSD - Supply and Demand zonesGold in a range box
As long as the failure of this box has not happened, the fluctuation inside it is justified!
Gold did nothing, So I slept + I had a headacheThe best thing about being a full time trader is being able to do what I want when I want and as much as I am in pain as I type this, Just knowing that I don't have to answer to anyone reduces that pain 10 fold for me, honest.
I don't have to request any leave, I don't have to report to anyone. I can just go.
Yeah sure making money is great but what good is it if it costs you your peace.
I'd openly accept making 10 times less than what I make now in exchange for my peace. Yeah you read that right.
POST NFP +$4200.00 | Tradingview's "The Leap Competition"Made what I needed to make for the day already and more. Trying to continue to trade is literally adding insult to injury at this point - I am chilling.
Also I am competing in the Tradingview Contest but I will be honest I don't see myself winning that lol. Those traders are crazy good or at least really good at making quick money.
My style is much more of a slow burn. Oh well, See you guys next week :)
XAUUSD NFP BIG MOVE ANALYSIS Gold price climbs above $2,460 as the US bond yields and the US Dollar face pressure ahead of the US NFP for July. The Fed appears comfortable with market speculation for interest rate cuts in September.
USD/JPY – Surging yen improves to 15-week highThe Japanese yen continues to rally. USD/JPY is trading at 148.86 in the European session, down 0.31% on the day at the time of writing. On Thursday, the yen strengthened as much as 148.50, its best showing since May 11.
Only three weeks ago, the yen looked dead in the water. USD/JPY was trading just shy of 162, its highest level in almost four decades. Since then, the yen has been on an absolute tear, rising a staggering 7.9%, including 3.1% this week.
What is driving the yen’s spectacular turnaround? First, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates this week to 0.25%. Although rates remain at low levels, this rate increase, the second since March, indicates that the BoJ is slowly making the shift to normalization after decades of an ultra-loose accommodative policy.
The BoJ also announced it would taper its bond purchases, which is another tightening step.
Second, investors have become less enthusiastic about the US dollar now that a September cut is looking very likely and are looking to park their assets elsewhere.
The US economy is showing some signs of weakness, such as this week’s ISM manufacturing PMI for July, which posted the sharpest contraction since November 2023. This has driven funds away from the US dollar towards safe-haven assets such as the yen. Today’s nonfarm payrolls are expected to fall from 206 thousand to 175 thousand, which could further boost the yen at the expense of the US dollar.
This week’s BoJ rate hike showed that change is afoot in Japan and the government’s annual white paper on economic and fiscal policy, which was released today, supported that view. The white paper said that Japan was showing signs of breaking out of deflation, noting that businesses were now passing on costs to consumers due to increased costs from the yen’s sharp decline.
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USD/JPY continues to break below support levels. Earlier, it pushed below support at 149.19 and is testing support at 148.72. Below, there is support at 149.59
150.03 and 150.44 are the next resistance lines
Pre NFP Analysis2nd August (NFP Pending)
DXY: could see weaker NFP (155k), DXY to retest 104.45, reject to trade down to 104 round number. Could trade down to 103.65 if <155k.
NZDUSD: Sell 0.5910 SL 15 TP 45 (DXY strength)
AUDUSD: Buy 0.6505 SL 20 TP 60 (DXY weakness)
USDJPY: Sell 148.40 SL 50 TP 210 (Hesitation at 147.30) or Buy 149.75 SL 50 TP 220 (Double Bottom)
GBPUSD: Sell 1.2690 SL 20 TP 70 (Pre news)
EURUSD: Buy 1.0825 SL 20 TP 60 (DXY weakness)
USDCHF: Sell 0.8740 SL 20 TP 60
USDCAD: Sell 1.3885 SL 20 TP 60 (DXY weakness)
Gold: Could retrace to test 2450 then rebound to 2480
EURUSD - NFP Trade IdeaBecause of the election, the US Dollar will go up. EURUSD will want to mitigate some lower areas and then react from this zone.
The price can also mitigate some higher areas and then go down.
That's why we don't trade NFP. We wait for entries when the market shows us.
Tight BOE 5-4 Vote on Rate Cut Hinges on Bailey's Decision Tight BOE 5-4 Vote on Rate Cut Hinges on Bailey's Decision
A Reuters survey indicates that most economists anticipate the Bank of England (BOE) reducing interest rates at its August meeting. The poll revealed that over 80% of respondents expect a rate cut.
We could see a close decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), with a 5-4 split in favor of a rate cut, leaving Governor Andrew Bailey to cast the deciding vote.
Market sentiment, however, remains more divided. Although, the investor outlook is gradually aligning with the expectation of a rate reduction with a slight majority predicting that rates will be cut.
Over in the US, the nonfarm payrolls report is forecasted to show a decline from 206,000 in June to 175,000 in July.
Contrary to this consensus, Bank of America economist Michael Gapen predicts a significant rise in nonfarm payrolls to 225,000 for July, the highest since March.
While the July jobs report may not drastically shift the Federal Reserve's policy direction, it will be pivotal in solidifying expectations for a rate cut in September.
EUR/USD Key Levels: 1.075 - 1.081 - 1.066 General Overview:
The EUR/USD pair has recently lost ground in a short-term bullish recovery, testing new two-week lows near the 1.0800 level, as the movement's momentum has drained out ahead of updates on EU GDP data. The latest Federal Reserve interest rate decision is expected on Wednesday, with a new round of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) scheduled for Friday.
Fundamental Analysis:
The US Dollar (USD) started the week on a positive note, reversing consecutive daily gains in EUR/USD and testing three-day lows near the 1.0800 region. Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) after the summer break have influenced market dynamics.
In terms of monetary policy, the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at the July 31 meeting, while the easing cycle is anticipated to begin in September. The ECB, according to recent comments from Vice President Luis de Guindos, may also cut rates in September. This policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB could lead to further weakening of the European currency in the medium term.
Key Macroeconomic Data:
Market participants will closely follow the release of preliminary Q2 GDP data from both Germany and the Eurozone, as well as advanced inflation data from Germany, scheduled for July 30. The preliminary Eurozone CPI report will be released on Wednesday, followed by the outcome of the FOMC monetary policy meeting. Finally, key US macroeconomic data, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Friday, will be crucial in determining the next moves for the EUR/USD pair.
Technical Outlook:
From a technical perspective, spot prices showed resilience below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-July rally on Monday, although the lack of significant buying suggests caution for bulls. Oscillators on the daily chart are starting to gain negative traction, suggesting that the path of least resistance for EUR/USD is to the downside.
Spot prices could weaken further below the 61.8% Fibonacci level near the 1.0775 region and test the next relevant support near the 1.0745 horizontal zone. This is closely followed by the 78.6% Fibonacci level near the 1.0730 area, below which EUR/USD could challenge the June monthly low, around the 1.0660 region, with some intermediate support near the psychological 1.0700 mark.
Conversely, any subsequent move up is likely to confront resistance near the 1.0840-1.0845 region or the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Sustained strength beyond this could lift the EUR/USD pair above the 1.0865 horizontal barrier towards the 1.0885-1.0890 region. Continued buying beyond the 1.0900 level should allow bulls to aim back towards retesting the multi-month peak, around the mid-1.0900s.
NFP/USDT PLAN NFP/USDT appears promising for a potential bullish advancement. The price is currently surpassing the trendline resistance on the 6-hour time frame. A successful breakout could indicate a forthcoming bullish move of around 50-80% in the coming days. Please note that this is not financial advice; always conduct your own research (DYOR).
NFP LONGNfp is going for a test around its strong resistance we can see a rejection from here.we put our entry around retest area after here it will continue its bullish movement
NFP/USDT: READY FOR AN ATH! 6X FROM HERE!!Hey everyone!
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NFP looks good here. Forming a falling wedge-like structure in the daily time frame confirms its deviation below the trendline and gets back inside the wedge which is a bullish scenario. Buy some now and add more in the dip.
Entry range:- $0.28-$0.31
Targets:- $0.43/$0.58/$0.76/$1.12/$1.44/$1.84
SL:- $0.20
What are your thoughts on NFP's current price action? Do you see a bullish pattern? Share your analysis in the comments below!
