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Nfp

XAUUSD 1 HR STRUCTURE CHANGEXAU/USD on the 1-hour chart has shifted its structure back into the established range, signaling a period of consolidation. With the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) release on the horizon, there is a high probability of a liquidity hunt around the 2655 level. Traders should exercise caution and wait for clear confirmations before entering positions, as volatility is likely to spike during the NFP event. This could present opportunities for sharp moves, but patience and a well-defined strategy will be key to navigating these conditions effectively.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SadarExplore
British pound rises as UK Construction PMI jumpsThe British pound has extended its gains for a third straight trading day. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2757, up 0.45% on the day. The UK Construction sector rose to 55.2 in November, up from 54.3 in October and above the market estimate of 53.4. This indicates strong expansion but the report contained mixed figures. Commercial work sparkled as it jumped to its highest level in 2.5 years. On the other side of the coin, residential work fell to its lowest level since June, as home-building was been dampened by high interest rates and weak consumer confidence. The UK economy is fragile, with a stagnant services sector and manufacturing in contraction mode. The Bank of England has joined the easing cycle and has lowered rates twice this year, with the last cut in November. The BoE meets on Dec. 19 and is widely expected to hold the cash rate at 4.75%. The markets have priced in three rate cuts in 2025 and there was some surprise when BoE Governor Bailey hinted on Wednesday that the central bank was looking at four rate cuts if the BoE’s inflation projections proved correct. Bailey noted that inflation had fallen one percent lower than the BoE forecasted a year ago. Bailey’s optimistic stance on inflation means that the BoE could be aggressive in its rate-cutting cycle in 2025. With US inflation largely contained, the nonfarm payroll release has again become one of the most significant economic releases on the calendar. The November report is expected to rise to a respectable 200 thousand, after a weak gain of 12 thousand in October, which was driven downwards by hurricanes and work stoppages at Boeing. GBP/USD tested resistance at 1.2737 earlier. The next resistance line is 1.2775 1.2684 and 1.2646 are the next support levels
by OANDA
XAUUSD - China, still buying gold?!Gold is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. The continuation of the movement of gold depends on the failure or failure of this channel, and you can trade in that direction. In case of breaking the bottom of the channel, we can see the continued decline and see the demand zone and buy within that range with the appropriate risk reward. Maintaining the channel has paved the way for gold to rise to the supply zone, and gold can be sold within that zone. Recent credible research analyzing undisclosed purchases since May 2024 confirms that China has been secretly buying gold. A recent analysis has validated long-held suspicions that, since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China has been a significant and covert buyer of gold beyond officially reported levels. Goldman Sachs had previously hinted at such activity, and new findings by the analyst at Money Metals further substantiate this claim. According to the report, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) discreetly purchased approximately 60 tons of gold in September alone. This trend has been ongoing since May 2024, with evidence suggesting a drawdown from London reserves dating back to May this year. While the PBOC has not reported any gold purchases since April, Goldman Sachs’ NowCast data estimates that around 50 tons of institutional gold purchases were conducted by China in May through the over-the-counter (OTC) market in London. This strategy is not unique to China. Other nations, such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia, also employ similar tactics to accumulate gold discreetly while avoiding price spikes. The covert nature of these transactions reflects their intent to bolster reserves while maintaining low market prices. One market analyst has cautioned investors hoping for a Christmas rally in gold prices to proceed with caution, as recent volatility may signal a peak in prices, at least for this year. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, noted in his latest report that gold has consistently experienced price increases in December over the past seven years. However, he warned that while recent price corrections might attract bargain hunters in the final month of 2024, gold’s current high prices remain a risk factor. In his note, Hansen stated that the greatest challenge is the 28.3% rise in gold prices this year, bringing it close to the 29.6% growth seen in 2010 and 31% in 2007. While the fundamental supportive outlook for 2025 remains intact, such significant growth could prompt profit-taking and position adjustments before the year ends. Hansen predicted that while gold may struggle to achieve new highs in December, his outlook for 2025 remains bullish, with prices expected to reach $3,000 in the new year. He added that geopolitical uncertainties will continue to support the precious metal as a safe haven. At the same time, the introduction of new trade tariffs on U.S. imports next year is generally perceived as a positive factor for the U.S. dollar. However, the side effects of a stronger dollar could ripple through the global economy, particularly affecting countries reliant on dollar-denominated debt, commodity trade, and export-driven growth. This dynamic might sustain interest in alternative investments like gold and silver. Hansen further emphasized that Trump’s plans for tariffs, tax cuts, and immigration policies could exacerbate inflation and debt—two key risks that gold investors seek to hedge against.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Ali_PSND
TradeCityPro | NFP : Key Resistance and Breakout Triggers👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro! In this analysis, I will review the NFP chart, which, based on a breakout strategy, could offer a good entry point for spot buying and futures trading. Since this coin’s chart has recently become available, I will skip the weekly timeframe analysis and focus on the daily and 4-hour timeframes. 📅 Daily Timeframe: A Critical Resistance Zone In this timeframe, alongside Bitcoin's rally toward 99,000 and the establishment of a new ATH, NFP also experienced an upward move. It began its rise from the 0.1803 support level, testing it once before successfully breaking the 0.2599 resistance on the second attempt. Currently, it has reached a significant resistance zone between 0.3050 and 0.34. 🔍 Within the range of 0.1803 to 0.3050, there’s a rounding formation visible, which I’ve marked with a curved trendline. Over time, this curved trendline has reduced the bearish momentum in the market. Even after the initial breakdown of the 0.1803 support, this trendline provided support, pulling the price back above the level in the subsequent candle and invalidating the breakdown. Afterward, strong buying volume entered the market, driving the price toward the 0.3050 resistance. 📊 Currently, the decreasing volume during the pullback suggests a healthy trend. However, we must consider the importance of the resistance zone, as it’s the most critical area for this coin at the moment. ✅ If strong buying volume enters, the price could break through this zone and target higher levels. The next target would be 0.3990. If the RSI enters the overbought zone, we could expect higher targets like 0.5874, and the ultimate target would be the ATH at 1.1522. ⏳ 4-Hour Timeframe: Futures Triggers In this timeframe, I’ve marked the resistance zone with multiple lines to make it easier to identify potential futures trading triggers. 🔼 Currently, the trend appears bullish, and I prefer to open long positions. A breakout above 0.3061 would be a suitable trigger for a long position. However, the issue is that, despite recent price increases, the volume has been decreasing, which isn’t a positive sign for the continuation of the trend. 📈 If 0.3061 resistance is broken, the next trigger would be 0.3495. This trigger is more reliable than 0.3061 because the latter would lead into a resistance zone, whereas breaking 0.3495 would exit this zone, allowing for smoother price increases. 🔽 On the downside, if the 0.2595 level is broken, the price will likely enter a corrective phase, potentially dropping to 0.2167. The critical RSI support to maintain bullish momentum is 44.01. 📝 Final Thoughts This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice. Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
Long
by tradecitypro
4
#NFP. Win big or feel the pain! Analysis from 11/19/24Currently, the coin is in a sideways trend, where asset distribution is taking place. A breakout above the resistance level will indicate buyer strength and the potential for further growth. Exiting such accumulation zones, especially in this market, will most likely result in an upward impulse, so it makes sense to try and catch this movement. However, if the $0.2350 level is lost, we will most likely head straight for a support test, after which we will have a clearer understanding of where the price is likely to move next (probably working from sales rather than purchases, as we are doing now). DYOR.
Long
by trendbooster
1
NFP (1M_Journey) Entry ( .1740 +.1670 ) Stop ( 0.1561 )BINANCE:NFPUSDT 1 Million Journey. It is a long journey with NO FOMO & NO RUSH. In those trades i will try to make 1 million USD from 1000 USD. ********************************************************************************* (6) Risk is (7-8%), Reward (40%) First Entry (.1740 ) 750$ Second Entry (.1670 ) 490$ Target ( .239) Stop ( 0.1561 ) ********************************************************************************* General information ************************ 1. throw this challenge i will try to make 1 million USD from 1000 USD 2. It will be very long journey not fixed by time with NO FOMO & NO RUSH. 3. I will take this challenge by my personal money and my personal decisions so please if you need to follow ( do your own plan). 4. May be i can achieve that target and may be not. 5. I think it will be educational challenge. 6. May be a lot of challenges Throw the journey, i will try to correct the path every fall. 6. I do not need 1000X in one coin but i need small profit with a lot of successful trades depend on the following formula for 10% Profit NST= ( IN(FV/C) ) / ( IN (1+P) ) NST = Number of successful trades (NST) FV = Final value C = Capital P = Profit percentage IN = Natural logarithms ( IN from calculator) NST = ( IN ( 1000 000 / 1000 ) / ( IN ( 1 + 10% ) ) = 6.908 /.09531 = 73.5 Successful trade. with no loses. Risk management ********************** 1. Entry by 50% or 75% depend on the market situation. 2. Maximum 5% loses per trade. 3. Maximum 1 lose per day. 4. Maximum 2 loses per week. 5. Maximum 2 trades per day. 6. Minimum rewards has to be 5% and the maximum depends the coin targets & market situation. Trading rules **************** 1. Figuring the best entry point. 2. After achieving more than 5% profit moving stop loss to secure 5% profit . 3. Trading available opportunities in the market ( everyday - every week - every month) 4. Trading will be spot only. 5. Trading will be with trusted & high liquidity platform ( Binance coins). 6. (Monitoring coins - low liquidity coins) will not be traded . 7. (High rewards -low risks - fast trades - lower time frames ) will be traded. Notes ******** 1. these rules can be changed due to the market situations and new challenges. 2. You can check the journey tags in the below links.... www.tradingview.com www.tradingview.com ************************************************************************* Remember always..... NO FORMO - NO RUSH, It is a long journey. Thank you for reading, @Crypto_alphabit *****************************
Long
by Crypto_alphabit
#NFP (SPOT) entry range ( 0.1620- 0.1760)T.(0.5340) SL(0.1561)BINANCE:NFPUSDT entry range ( 0.1620- 0.1760) Target1 (0.2400) - Target2 (0.3390)- Target3 (0.4400)- Target4 (0.5340) 3 Extra Targets(optional) in chart, if you like to continue in the trade with making stoploss very high. SL .1D close below (0.1561) Golden Advices. ********************** * collect the coin slowly in the entry range. * Please calculate your losses before the entry. * Do not enter any trade you find it not suitable for you. * No FOMO - No Rush , it is a long journey. Useful Tags. ********************** My total posts ( www.tradingview.com) 1Million Journey ( www.tradingview.com ) ( www.tradingview.com ) ********************************************************************************************************************** #Manta ,#OMNI, #DYM, #AI, #IO, #XAI , #ACE #NFP #RAD #WLD #ORDI #BLUR #SUI #Voxel #AEVO #VITE #APE #RDNT #FLUX #NMR #VANRY #TRB #HBAR #DGB #XEC #ERN #ALT #IO #ACA #HIVE #ASTR #ARDR #PIXEL #LTO #AERGO #SCRT #ATA #HOOK #FLOW #KSM #HFT #MINA #DATA #SC #JOE #RDNT #IQ #CFX #BICO #CTSI #KMD #FXS #DEGO #FORTH # AST #PORTAL #CYBER #RIF #ENJ #ZIL #APT #GALA #STEEM #ONE #LINK #NTRN #COTI #RENDER #ICX #IMX #ALICE #PYR #PORTAL #GRT #GMT # IDEX #NEAR #ICP #ETH #QTUM #VET #QNT #API3 #BURGER .
Long
by Crypto_alphabit
XAUUSD - Gold waiting for the release of the NFP index!Gold is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. If the decline continues due to the release of economic data today, we can see demand zone and buy within that zone with a suitable risk reward. If the upward trend continues, it is possible to sell gold short-term within the specified supply zone. Gold prices have surged significantly, reaching new records as the U.S. elections, a major and risky event, draw closer. It is expected that if the results deviate from expectations, particularly with a victory by Republican candidate Donald Trump, market reactions could intensify. This month, gold prices have risen by 5%, and since the start of the year, they have increased by 34%, ranking second only to silver, which has grown by 42.3%. These price increases have raised concerns about the sustainability of these gains and the potential for reaching a price peak. Bloomberg reported that the U.S. jobs report for October is anticipated to show that the unemployment rate has remained stable, although storms and strikes have temporarily impacted hiring. It is estimated that the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) will drop to 105,000, down from the 254,000 increase in September. The range of expectations is quite broad, from a decline of 10,000 to an increase of 180,000. This report could complicate future decision-making for the Federal Reserve. A stock market-based prediction model indicates a nearly 70% likelihood of forecasting the winner of the U.S. election. This model leverages a historical trend where the ruling political party’s chances of victory are reflected in the annual performance of the Dow Jones Index, boasting an exceptionally high statistical accuracy of 99%. According to this model, when the Dow Jones Index has improved over the year, the incumbent political party has a better chance of winning. In this scenario, the incumbent party would refer to Kamala Harris, giving her a 69% chance of victory. Based on this predictive model, stock market performance serves as an effective indicator for gauging the incumbent party’s chances of winning. The model points to the historical trend that if the Dow Jones Index has risen during the year, it suggests greater public confidence and a healthier economic condition, which benefits the ruling party. Regarding gold, factors such as global macroeconomic conditions, the state of the U.S. dollar, and Federal Reserve policy decisions also influence its price. While markets await the jobs report and election results, analysts believe gold will remain attractive as a safe-haven asset during periods of political and economic uncertainty. Thus, if economic data falls short of expectations or political tensions increase, there is potential for further gold price gains. However, experts warn that if prices rise excessively, a potential correction could follow. Investors will closely monitor the factors influencing the global economy and monetary policies to make the best decisions for investing in gold.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
USDJPY - Yen will continue to strengthen?!The USDJPY currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. In case of correction due to the release of today's economic data, we can see the demand zone and buy in those two zones with the appropriate risk reward. Yesterday, the Bank of Japan kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, as expected. The Japanese government maintained its overall economic assessment for October, continuing to believe that the economy is recovering at a moderate pace. However, it downgraded its outlook on production, indicating that output might be facing challenges and may struggle to grow significantly. Meanwhile, Japan’s Economy Minister, Akazawa, stated that currency movements are being closely monitored, and proposed policies from other parties will be reviewed. He also noted that a weaker yen could lead to a decrease in income and private consumption, particularly if wage growth is insufficient. According to a recent Reuters survey of economists, 103 out of 111 economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 0.25% in November and December of this year, bringing the rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Additionally, 74 out of 96 surveyed economists predict that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate will drop to 3% to 3.25% or higher by the end of 2025. A recent report from CIBC suggests that a 3% growth in U.S. GDP is unlikely to overheat the economy. CIBC believes that the U.S. economy can sustain growth at this rate while continuing its rate-cutting cycle. The report shows that U.S. economic growth has reached 2.8%, slightly below analysts’ 3% expectation. Nonetheless, the details reflect a robust economic performance, with domestic consumption offsetting the negative effects of net trade. CIBC analysts argue that 3% growth should be seen as a new measure of economic capacity rather than a sign of overheating. They point to improvements in productivity and cooling labor markets and inflation, asserting that
Long
by Ali_PSND
Pre NFP Trade Analysis1st November DXY: Stronger NFP, DXY bounce off 103.80 to trade up to 104.60. If 103.80 broken, could trade down to 103.45 NZDUSD: Sell 0.5925 SL 20 TP 60 (DXY Strength) AUDUSD: Sell 0.6545 SL 25 TP 60 (DXY Strength) GBPUSD: Sell 1.28 SL 40 TP 120 (DXY Strength) EURUSD: Buy 1.0905 SL 25 TP 100 Hesitation at 1.0950 (DXY Weakness) USDJPY: Sell 151.40 SL 40 TP 200 Hesitation at 150.55 (DXY Weakness) USDCHF: Buy 0.8710 SL 20 TP 40 (DXY Strength) USDCAD: Sell 1.3915 SL 15 TP 30 (DXY Weakness) Gold: Needs to stay below 2760, break 2740 could trade down to 2708
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
2
NFP Data: Can it Sway Election? Just days before the U.S. heads to the polls, the last employment report before Election Day will offer a snapshot of hiring and unemployment, key factors in a race where the economy remains top of mind for voters. Ordinarily, monthly jobs data provides a clearer gauge of economic conditions. However, analysts project that last month’s hiring figures could be skewed by multiple disruptions. Hurricanes Helene and Milton, alongside a prolonged strike by Boeing machinists, are expected to have temporarily trimmed employment by up to 100,000 jobs. Gold could emerge as one of the most responsive assets. Following a surge to record highs, bullion slipped as some investors opted to lock in gains and pushed the RSI into oversold levels. Technically, XAU/USD is potentially still bullish.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
XAUUSD - Areas with high potentialGold and silver still have room to grow, according to Max Layton, head of research at Commodity City. Leighton says the best bull markets for gold and silver usually occur when the US and European markets are weakening and China looks poised to grow. Investors have flocked to gold this year as geopolitical factors, a changing economic landscape and persistent inflation concerns have fueled fears of volatility in other assets. When there is too much euphoria, we must be careful of price correction!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
Will the job data impair the US dollar gain?Macro theme: - The dollar remained steady despite short-term volatility, reflecting mixed economic data. US Sep Retail Inventories and Oct Consumer Confidence exceeded forecasts, while Sep Job Openings fell short. - Treasury yields reached multi-month highs early but declined following a strong seven-year auction. - With the US job report—the last before the FOMC meeting—approaching, storms and strikes could complicate interpreting the data, introducing further uncertainty around the dollar’s direction. Technical theme: - DXY is consolidating in a small range at the top and looks stretched. This is vulnerable to a potential mean reversion. The price is trading away from both EMAs. - If DXY extends its gain above the previous swing high at 104.60, the index may rise to 106.00 resistance. - On the contrary, if DXY closes below 104.00 support, the index may decline to retest 103.45 support. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
TVC:DXYShort
by DatTong
XAU/USD: Final NFP before Election Americans continue to rank the economy as their top issue, and the final Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report before voting day, offers a crucial signal this coming Friday. September saw a gain of 254,000 jobs, but forecasts point to a marked slowdown, with expectations hovering just above the 100,000 mark. The expected downturn stems from several factors, including back-to-back hurricanes disrupting the Southeast of the country. For now, gold is trading below Friday’s close (but for how much longer?) as markets react to limited Israeli action against Iran. Tehran has indicated it won’t retaliate, easing geopolitical tension and potentially reducing demand for the haven asset.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
USD/JPY soars as rate hike hopes chilledThe yen has stabilized after massive losses last week. In the North American session, the USD/JPY is trading at 148.03 at the time of writing, up 0.45%. The yen is coming off a spectacularly bad week with a 4.5% decline. This marked the yen’s worst week since 2020, during the covid pandemic. The sharp decline was driven by the political drama in Japan, which included the election of Shigeru Ishiba as the new prime minister. Ishiba has supported the Bank of Japan tightening policy in the past, but he has taken a U-turn on monetary policy since being elected prime minister. Ishiba may have shifted his stance in order to avoid any divisive issues, such as raising interest rates, ahead of the snap election on October 27. The election will be followed by the next BoJ meeting on October 31, with the BoJ expected to maintain its policy settings. On Wednesday, Ishiba met with BoJ Governor Ueda and said that Japan did not need to raise rates further. In a speech to parliament on Friday, Ishiba pledged to defeat deflation, a message which signaled a continuation of “Abenomics”, which advocates an accommodative policy. The yen slid 1.1% on Friday as expectations for a rate hike have evaporated. Ishiba’s dovish stance and comments by BoJ officials that it the Bank will be extremely cautious before raising rates has dashed expectations for a near-term rate hike and made the Japanese currency less attractive to investors. The US labor market surprised to the upside, as September nonfarm payrolls surged by 254 thousand, up from a revised 159 thousand in August and blowing past the market estimate of 140 thousand. This was the strongest job report in six months. The unemployment rate dipped lower to 4.1%, compared to 4.2% in August and below the market estimate of 4.2%. The markets have raised the odds of a 25-basis point cut at the Fed November meeting to 87%, compared to 65% one week ago. USD/JPY tested support at 147.89 earlier. Below, there is support at 146.78 There is resistance at 149.86 and 150.97
by OANDA