UPDATE ON BTC SHARED IDEABTC going according to plan so far, US nfp report came in hot, both gold and btc took the hit and dropped hard. let see if we get some reaction on their demand zones.
Nfp
US30 shortBearish daily bias. I saw price rally up to liquidity and key levels then broke structure on the 1m which was enough for me to place a sell stop.
DXY | GOLD | Stocks | Crypto ⚠️ Upcoming Risk Event NFP 40 min⏰🔖 Our Forecast
🔎 If US NFP today prints
Nonfarm Payrolls bellow 127K
Unemployment above 3.8%
Average hourly earnings below 4.9%
Then Expert 👇🏼
Gold 📈
DXY 📉
S&P500 📈
NZDUSD 📈 (hawkish RBNZ )
🔎 If NFP prints
Nonfarm Payrolls above 375K
Unemployment below 3.5%
Average hourly earnings above 5.3%
Then Expert 👇🏼
Gold 📉
DXY 📈
S&P500 📉
AUDUSD 📉 ( dovish RBA )
⚠️ Please Follow Money Management
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - NFP!KOG Report – NFP
This is our view for NFP today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price.
For today’s NFP Report we’re going to keep it simple. We will be taking aspects of the KOG Report which was published on Sunday and looking for the move we ideally wanted to complete. We will use the extreme key levels to look for reactions in price including the order regions.
We have support at 1701-3 and resistance at 1715-18 which is just outside the immediate range. Remember, the move always comes after the event, let them move it to where they want to long or short it, wait for strong support/resistance and then test the level with your trade into your identified target.
Scenario 1:
If they push the price up into the higher resistance levels we will look for a reaction and possibly test the short trade into the lower levels of 1690 and below that 1680-70. This lower level is where we feel they could terminate the move and we may see a reaction and bounce.
Scenario 2:
If they push the price down, we will wait for that lower level of 1660-75 where we want to see it find support. Based on support here the long trade is a preferable hold to take up above 1730+.
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As always, trade safe.
KOG
USDCHF Bullish Wave Triangle CorrectionUSDCHF will most likely continue to rise meaning that the main objective is the Bullish direction, I wouldn't consider taking the countertrend move even though it's optimum but not worth it. It's safe to wait for a Triangle correction pattern completion before buying still keeping in mind the fact that waves 1 and 4 never overlap.
EURUSD before NFP Today is the first Friday of the month and we will see the publishing of the non-farm payrolls.
This will affect all instruments traded against the USD.
We want to see EURUSD with a clean move and better setups throughout the next week.
Right now, we are not looking to enter before the news!
0,9710 is an important level and if we see the market rejecting it, we will probably see another move higher to 0,9920.
USD/JPY closes above 145 - NFP now in focusUSD/JPY finally closed above 145 for the first time in 24 years. Given we saw the MOF (Ministry of Finance) intervene around 145.9 then the potential for the BOJ or MOF to jawbone (if not intervene) may be high. However, traders remain aware that it will take a coordinated intervention to turn this trend around, which is why prices simply drifted back to the highs when the MOF intervened in September. And until we see any sort of intervention, price action remains king. Take note that the MOF last intervened around 145.90, so maret may become twitchy the closer we get to that level.
An inverted head and shoulders pattern has formed on the USD/JPY 1-hour chart, which projects a target around 146.2. With the dollar looking strong ahead of today's NFP report, perhaps we'll see another leg higher ahead of the key Nonfarm report.
The trend remains bullish and we would consider bullish setups above the broken neckline, with the initial target being the highs around 145.35 and the daily R1 pivot.
The US dollar index (DXY) hints at a swing low ahead of NFPThe US dollar was the strongest major currency on Wednesday, supported by rising US yields and softer import/export data (which points to a softer global economy). And whilst the prices paid component of the ISM services PMI softened to a 20-month low of 68.8, it remains historically high relative to its long-term average of 59.8 - which suggests the aggressive Fed tightening is yet to make an impact on the inflationary forces of the robust services sector.
The main economic event for the dollar this week is tomorrow's NFP report. There was some excitement that it may come in soft due to the notable fall in job openings (-9.8%), but ADP employment came in slight above expectations at 208k yesterday.
As for the US dollar index (DXY) it is showing the potential for a swing low to form. As noted earlier this week, the bias was for a deeper pullback on the US dollar and to then look for evidence of a swing low. Given the RSI (2) moved below 10 (overbought) ahead of a bullish inside bar occurring above the 2002 highs, I suspect we are at or near a swing low for the dollar. This is also backed up by the fact US yields are also seemingly trying to print a swing low. And a strong NFP report tomorrow could help solidify this near-term bullish bias.
The bias remains bullish above 109.27 (below the small consolidation prior to its breakout) and for a move towards 114.0.
EUR/USD Resumes Decline And Slips Below 0.9800The EUR/USD pair retreated on Thursday as the U.S. dollar gained momentum on the back of risk aversion and higher U.S. bond yields. The European Central Bank's Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts revealed some "dovish" insights, which also weighed on the euro.
At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 0.9800 area, 0.8% below its opening price, having retreated from a daily high of 0.9926 and hit a low of 0.9788.
The U.S. labor market showed some evidence of deterioration ahead of the government's nonfarm payrolls report. The Jobless Claims for the week that ended on September 30 increased to 219,000, above the market's expectations of 200,000.
The nonfarm payrolls figures will give a better outlook on the current situation of the labor market. Economists expect a slowdown in U.S. job growth from August's 315,000 to 250,000 in September. If that's the case, the Fed may start to consider decelerating the pace of rate hikes.
Across the pond, the ECB published the Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, which showed some officials leaned towards a smaller hike of 50 bps in their last meeting. Additionally, the report remarked that the depreciating euro would increase inflationary pressures. Many officials called for the bank to act decisively now to prevent the need to hike at a more aggressive pace later.
From a technical standpoint and according to the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair holds a short-term bearish perspective. The EUR/USD trades below its main moving averages, while its indicators fell into negative territory. The RSI has crossed its midline and points south, while the MACD printed a lower green bar, signaling bulls are losing momentum.
The immediate support level for the EUR/USD is seen at the 0.9750 area, followed by the 0.9635 level, and then the cycle low at 0.9535. On the upside, the pair must regain the 20-day SMA, which stands at 0.9875. A break above the latter could pave the way to the 0.9900 zone and potentially parity.
GBP/USD slides after Fitch's downgradeGBP/USD is down sharply today. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.1150 down a massive 1.58%. The pound continues to exhibit sharp volatility, with swings of over 1% every day this week.
The fallout surrounding Chancellor Kwarteng's ill-fated mini-budget just won't go away. After immense pressure, Kwarteng abolished the tax breaks for the top 1% earners in a humiliating U-turn that has badly damaged the credibility of the new government. The fiasco sent the pound to a record low and forced the Bank of England to step in after the bond market was close to crashing. On Wednesday, the Fitch ratings agency lowered its outlook for UK debt from "stable" to "negative", following a similar move by Standard & Poor's after the mini-budget. Fitch did maintain the UK's credit rating of AA-, but the lower outlook will not help Prime Minister Truss' beleaguered government.
The pound was pummelled in September, losing 3.9%. The outlook for the pound does not look good, with soaring inflation and the new government's serious missteps after only a few weeks in office. Manufacturing PMI remained below 50, which indicates contraction. Today's Construction PMI rose to 52.3, up from 49.2, but much of the improvement was due to an easing in supply shortages, and new orders fell to their lowest level since May 2020.
In the US, the spotlight will be on Friday's nonfarm payroll report. The reading is an important bellwether of the health of the US economy and can provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future rate policy. On Wednesday, the ADP employment report showed a slight improvement at 208,000, up from 185,000 (200,000 est.) The ADP release is not a reliable forecaster of the official NFP release, but ADP is now using a new methodology, which hopefully will improve its reliability. Non-farm payrolls are expected to decline to 250,000 in September, down from 315,000 in August. A reading that is well off the estimate could trigger volatility from the US dollar - a strong reading will raise expectations that the Fed will stay very aggressive, while a soft release could mean the Fed has to pivot earlier than it expected.
GBP/USD is testing support at 1.1206. The next support line is at 1.1085
There is resistance at 1.1350 and 1.1486
Dollar index continues to decline The dollar index continues to decline and tests an important psychological support at 110
Pressure from the ISM manufacturing index and negative expectations for the service index today
The dollar is likely to face a wave of weak demand until the end of the week and the emergence of employment data
to watch
110.00
108.90
Long on NAS100 until NFP?As per Fed's Daly remarks states that the US needs further rate hikes to combat inflation hence why this current rally on indices and today's miss on JOLTS jobs report. Markets are continually providing volatility which equates to more opportunities for all market instruments. We have been breaking structure to the upside on NAS100 since Monday and all throughout the asian session. I've adapted a short term sentiment to bullish with a final TP 11760.1 I do believe we will see bearish plays come back in on NFP day.
I will act accordingly to what the market shows.
EUR/USD ANALYSISFed's work is not finished yet. But risk taking has caused the current upward movement. The possibility of falling
NAS100 ShortLooking for a retracement at the 4 hour supply which lines up with a strong fibonacci level to continue down around the 11104.8 levels. I am bearish unless the market provides otherwise. We have a lot of fundamentals this week including NFP.
GBPUSD MAPPING .3RD -7TH OCT 2022FX:GBPUSD when market opens on Monday , we would be able to know if the next wave drop is impulsive or corrective .However ,we still do expect a drop on gbpusd . nfp (non farm payroll ) and some other news would potentially give more data as to what to expect after the drop . COT data still shows gbp NET NEGATIVE on NON COMMERCIALS position.
in other words, its a BUYtoSELL trade
GBPJPY Setup ReviewHello Traders,
I am doing a brief overview on the GBPJPY trade I took in New York Session today. After NFP news was release, we seen a triple top formation. After the engulfing candle from the triple top, enter a sell position to scalp.
I ended up closing the trade early at 30 pips due to doubt of it reaching 161.616 level which is the daily low.
Hope this help some of you. The trendline break and retest is a simple strategy.
SPX500USD - Market Update: 09/02/2022$SPY (SPX500/USD) 👀 - 🚨Market Update: 09/02/2022 🚨
💎 After the release of the NonFarm Payrolls ( #NFP ) data this morning the US Currency Index ( #DXY ) tanked and stocks and cryptocurrencies rallied.
💎 This is due to the following key takeaways from release, as follows:
✅ (Positive) US Employers added 315,000 payrolls, exceeding the expected 300,000 payrolls.
🩸 (Negative) US Employment rate rose from 3.5% to 3.7%.
💎 Regarding the S&P 500 Index specifically, leading up to today’s NFP release the market had been previously seeking and destroying lower price targets and objectives. Therefore, I am not surprised to see the Dollar tank and Stocks/Cryptos rally, as both need to perform equilibrium pullbacks before reversing to complete one more impulse back in the opposite direction.
💎 I am expecting for us to run the liquidity (stop hunt) above $4,013 to $4,015 before we might start seeing signs of #distribution , before a reversal to mitigate out of the 1h Institutional Sell Candle before moving the market back higher.
💎Timing is key! I cannot say this enough. Price doesn’t know time and time doesn’t know price. Be patient, follow the rules, your trading/investing plan and profitable is in your near future. Trust me!
💎 As always, don't take my word. Do your own research first. Investing involves risks and you accept those risks on your own everytime you enter the #markets.
📊 To View or Save My Chart:
#longterm #possabilities #alittleatatime #buildandgrow #time4change #invest #buythedip #staystrong #evs #accumulation #technicalanalysiswanted #technicalanalysis #daytrader
XAUUSD Long Resault: 204 pips✅I long xauusd before NFP news today, and after news xauusd touch our target.
this is the power of my trading strategy.
XAUUSD Longyou can long xauusd at 1703 - 1705 zone
stop loss at 1698
and take profit at 1718
best tips of trade is partial entry and partial exit.
EUR/USD Is Moving Sideways!• After failing to hit the 0.9900 lower low, the EUR/USD spiked higher. It has encountered resistance after climbing as high as 1.0018.
• False breakouts through the downtrend line could bring new short opportunities. The immediate downside barrier is 0.9900. After the US data dump, EUR/USD may experience abrupt movements in either direction.
• "Keep it Simple", Good Luck!
