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The US dollar index (DXY) hints at a swing low ahead of NFPThe US dollar was the strongest major currency on Wednesday, supported by rising US yields and softer import/export data (which points to a softer global economy). And whilst the prices paid component of the ISM services PMI softened to a 20-month low of 68.8, it remains historically high relative to its long-term average of 59.8 - which suggests the aggressive Fed tightening is yet to make an impact on the inflationary forces of the robust services sector. The main economic event for the dollar this week is tomorrow's NFP report. There was some excitement that it may come in soft due to the notable fall in job openings (-9.8%), but ADP employment came in slight above expectations at 208k yesterday. As for the US dollar index (DXY) it is showing the potential for a swing low to form. As noted earlier this week, the bias was for a deeper pullback on the US dollar and to then look for evidence of a swing low. Given the RSI (2) moved below 10 (overbought) ahead of a bullish inside bar occurring above the 2002 highs, I suspect we are at or near a swing low for the dollar. This is also backed up by the fact US yields are also seemingly trying to print a swing low. And a strong NFP report tomorrow could help solidify this near-term bullish bias. The bias remains bullish above 109.27 (below the small consolidation prior to its breakout) and for a move towards 114.0.
TVC:DXYLong
by CityIndex
EUR/USD Resumes Decline And Slips Below 0.9800The EUR/USD pair retreated on Thursday as the U.S. dollar gained momentum on the back of risk aversion and higher U.S. bond yields. The European Central Bank's Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts revealed some "dovish" insights, which also weighed on the euro. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 0.9800 area, 0.8% below its opening price, having retreated from a daily high of 0.9926 and hit a low of 0.9788. The U.S. labor market showed some evidence of deterioration ahead of the government's nonfarm payrolls report. The Jobless Claims for the week that ended on September 30 increased to 219,000, above the market's expectations of 200,000. The nonfarm payrolls figures will give a better outlook on the current situation of the labor market. Economists expect a slowdown in U.S. job growth from August's 315,000 to 250,000 in September. If that's the case, the Fed may start to consider decelerating the pace of rate hikes. Across the pond, the ECB published the Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, which showed some officials leaned towards a smaller hike of 50 bps in their last meeting. Additionally, the report remarked that the depreciating euro would increase inflationary pressures. Many officials called for the bank to act decisively now to prevent the need to hike at a more aggressive pace later. From a technical standpoint and according to the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair holds a short-term bearish perspective. The EUR/USD trades below its main moving averages, while its indicators fell into negative territory. The RSI has crossed its midline and points south, while the MACD printed a lower green bar, signaling bulls are losing momentum. The immediate support level for the EUR/USD is seen at the 0.9750 area, followed by the 0.9635 level, and then the cycle low at 0.9535. On the upside, the pair must regain the 20-day SMA, which stands at 0.9875. A break above the latter could pave the way to the 0.9900 zone and potentially parity.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
GBP/USD slides after Fitch's downgradeGBP/USD is down sharply today. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.1150 down a massive 1.58%. The pound continues to exhibit sharp volatility, with swings of over 1% every day this week. The fallout surrounding Chancellor Kwarteng's ill-fated mini-budget just won't go away. After immense pressure, Kwarteng abolished the tax breaks for the top 1% earners in a humiliating U-turn that has badly damaged the credibility of the new government. The fiasco sent the pound to a record low and forced the Bank of England to step in after the bond market was close to crashing. On Wednesday, the Fitch ratings agency lowered its outlook for UK debt from "stable" to "negative", following a similar move by Standard & Poor's after the mini-budget. Fitch did maintain the UK's credit rating of AA-, but the lower outlook will not help Prime Minister Truss' beleaguered government. The pound was pummelled in September, losing 3.9%. The outlook for the pound does not look good, with soaring inflation and the new government's serious missteps after only a few weeks in office. Manufacturing PMI remained below 50, which indicates contraction. Today's Construction PMI rose to 52.3, up from 49.2, but much of the improvement was due to an easing in supply shortages, and new orders fell to their lowest level since May 2020. In the US, the spotlight will be on Friday's nonfarm payroll report. The reading is an important bellwether of the health of the US economy and can provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future rate policy. On Wednesday, the ADP employment report showed a slight improvement at 208,000, up from 185,000 (200,000 est.) The ADP release is not a reliable forecaster of the official NFP release, but ADP is now using a new methodology, which hopefully will improve its reliability. Non-farm payrolls are expected to decline to 250,000 in September, down from 315,000 in August. A reading that is well off the estimate could trigger volatility from the US dollar - a strong reading will raise expectations that the Fed will stay very aggressive, while a soft release could mean the Fed has to pivot earlier than it expected. GBP/USD is testing support at 1.1206. The next support line is at 1.1085 There is resistance at 1.1350 and 1.1486
by OANDA
Long on NAS100 until NFP?As per Fed's Daly remarks states that the US needs further rate hikes to combat inflation hence why this current rally on indices and today's miss on JOLTS jobs report. Markets are continually providing volatility which equates to more opportunities for all market instruments. We have been breaking structure to the upside on NAS100 since Monday and all throughout the asian session. I've adapted a short term sentiment to bullish with a final TP 11760.1 I do believe we will see bearish plays come back in on NFP day. I will act accordingly to what the market shows.
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by nailahLovell
SPX500USD - Market Update: 09/02/2022$SPY (SPX500/USD) 👀 - 🚨Market Update: 09/02/2022 🚨 💎 After the release of the NonFarm Payrolls ( #NFP ) data this morning the US Currency Index ( #DXY ) tanked and stocks and cryptocurrencies rallied. 💎 This is due to the following key takeaways from release, as follows: ✅ (Positive) US Employers added 315,000 payrolls, exceeding the expected 300,000 payrolls. 🩸 (Negative) US Employment rate rose from 3.5% to 3.7%. 💎 Regarding the S&P 500 Index specifically, leading up to today’s NFP release the market had been previously seeking and destroying lower price targets and objectives. Therefore, I am not surprised to see the Dollar tank and Stocks/Cryptos rally, as both need to perform equilibrium pullbacks before reversing to complete one more impulse back in the opposite direction. 💎 I am expecting for us to run the liquidity (stop hunt) above $4,013 to $4,015 before we might start seeing signs of #distribution , before a reversal to mitigate out of the 1h Institutional Sell Candle before moving the market back higher. 💎Timing is key! I cannot say this enough. Price doesn’t know time and time doesn’t know price. Be patient, follow the rules, your trading/investing plan and profitable is in your near future. Trust me! 💎 As always, don't take my word. Do your own research first. Investing involves risks and you accept those risks on your own everytime you enter the #markets. 📊 To View or Save My Chart: #longterm #possabilities #alittleatatime #buildandgrow #time4change #invest #buythedip #staystrong #evs #accumulation #technicalanalysiswanted #technicalanalysis #daytrader
OANDA:SPX500USD
by ElBichotedelosGraficos
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - NFP!KOG Report – NFP This is our view for NFP today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price. We’ve had a good run with Gold coming down to another one of our bearish targets which was completed yesterday. If you’re following the KOG reports you will see we’ve been sticking with the plan and still have lower targets that we wish to be completed. Having said that, we were and are expecting a small relief rally at some point, at least back up towards that 1730-35 price point. Whether that be today during NFP or later next week is yet to be seen. For todays chart we will be as usually concentrating on the key levels rather than the immediate support and resistance levels. We have a bounce from the low which has hit the long target we wanted, however, there is a pool below which is yet unvisited. For that reason we are happy to wait for this move to commence (if they haven’t priced it in already) and, if we get the lower levels first with support confirmed, we feel an opportunity to go long will be available to take this up for a small rally back up above the 1700 level. If however, we move to the upside first, we feel an opportunity to short the market from the higher resistance levels (based on a clean resistance) would be on the table. Right now, support stands at the 1700-03 level and our bias is to the upside. We don’t have long to complete the move so any downward pressure could be limited. As we’ve said above, lately the news releases have all been priced in as the markets are reacting instantly to most of the hearsay. This will have to be a surprising number for it to move aggressively so take this report as a guide for now. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
7
LULU: Fade the rally!Lulumelon Athletica Short Term - We look to Sell at 329.26 (stop at 346.16) They reported better than expected earnings and the stock jumped up premarket. The medium term bias remains bearish. We are assessed to be in a corrective mode higher. Bespoke resistance is located at 332.00. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower. Our profit targets will be 284.68 and 272.00 Resistance: 332.00 / 410.00 / 478.00 Support: 283.00 / 246.00 / 129.00 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’) . Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NASDAQ:LULUShort
by VantageMarkets
NonFarmPayroll Prep (EURUSD)NFP analysis for the first Friday of the month! The expectation is for an increase of 295K with last month released at 528K (The previous month's forecast was 250K). And relatively unchanged in terms of the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings . If the data is released better than expected, the USD should strengthen. The EURUSD has found a wide trading range of 0.99 and 1.009 as price bounces between the two levels. More specifically, Price of the EURUSD has seen volatility around the parity level. If the DXY strengthens on the release of the news, the EURUSD could trade towards the 0.99 support level again, and might not find further downside. However, if the DXY does show weakness from a disappointing NFP event, the EURUSD could trade towards and beyond the 1.009 level, with 1.020 a possible target level.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
2
NonFarmPayroll Prep (GBPUSD)NFP analysis for the first Friday of the month! The expectation is for an increase of 295K with last month released at 528K (The previous month's forecast was 250K). And relatively unchanged in terms of the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings . If the data is released better than expected, the USD should strengthen. Seriously, how low can the GBPUSD go? Overnight the GBPUSD spiked lower to the 1.15 support level before consolidating at 1.1550 for today, in the leadup to the NFP event. If the DXY signals further strength, more downside on the GBPUSD is expected. However, look out for highly volatile price action where the price could spike lower, bounce, consolidate and spike again. The key support level for the GBPUSD is at the 1.14 level and at the bottom of the channel. If there is weakness in the DXY, the GBPUSD could bounce towards 1.165 but it would be dangerous to buy into such a strong downtrend.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
NonFarmPayroll Prep (USDJPY)NFP analysis for the first Friday of the month! The expectation is for an increase of 295K with last month released at 528K (The previous month's forecast was 250K). And relatively unchanged in terms of the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. If the data is released better than expected, the USD should strengthen. Is the USDJPY likely to continue climbing higher? Or is it set up for a strong reversal? Typically strong US NFP employment data is would result in a strengthening of the DXY and for the USDJPY to climb higher. The USDJPY could climb towards the 142 resistance area before possibly staging a strong reversal, as the Stochastic look to turn out of the overbought area. On the reversal, the first target level would be the 139.40 support level.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
NonFarmPayroll Prep (NZDUSD)NFP analysis for the first Friday of the month! The expectation is for an increase of 295K with last month released at 528K (The previous month's forecast was 250K). And relatively unchanged in terms of the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. If the data is released better than expected, the USD should strengthen. The NZDUSD has a strong descending trend line that applies downward pressure on price. But, the NZDUSD currently trades just above the 0.6060 support level. If the price breaks lower, there is little support until the 0.5930 price level (which was last reached in may 2020). Consider the possibility that the NZDUSD could find a significant upside move in the event of a surprise/bad data release from the US. If the price breaks above 0.61 and the diagonal trendline, the NZDUSD could climb towards 0.6158 and even 0.6250.
Long
by JinDao_Tai