AUDUSD Prediction Ahead of NFP Report Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
**AUDUSD - Listen to video!
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Nfp
DXY : Bull or Bear ? Let's See !After last night's analysis of the dollar index, we saw a price drop of 60 pips from exactly the same range ✅ ! Currently, the price has recovered from this drop, but it is still in an important range that today's statistics can determine the trend of the dollar index !
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⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 08.31.2022
⚠️(DYOR)
❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
GBPUSD, further weakness expected on Sterling against DollarFed speech last Friday made USD strengthen and DXY technically looks upwards till 110 zones which let other Major pairs will face effects, that too GBPUSD looks bearish till 1.15 zone, Expect a bounce back from the low there, Cant neglect the fact of NFP reports on Sep 2, Friday
Oil Breakdown - Fundamental and technical analysisIn this video I breakdown some headlines to look out for that should move the oil market one way or the other. I also run through the USD situation right now and explain how that could create moves in the oil market. Then I run through the chart to show you what I'm looking for to enter a trade.
Us30 likely bullishUs30 is sitting showing bullish willingness. I feel the buyside liquidity will be wiped out soon. But keep in mind that August price action is tricky for numerous reasons and this week is Non Farm Payrolls news event which will inject huge volatility in the markets.
What happened to Gold after NFP?Here is a quick analysis of what happened to Gold after Friday's NFP. Asian and London Session.
NFP caused this large drop in the price of Gold on Friday. The close of the second candle after the drop becomes an important price point called A.
Price falls again and consolidates in a range at this 1775 level.
The first proper breakout happens with a large bullish engulfing which covers the entire span of the ranging box. It is followed by a hanging man, which in this situation tells us that the bears lost their strength. This is followed by the London open which pushes the price back up to A before dropping back down into the box.
Another bullish candle pushes back up to A. There is a slight retracement before price breaks above and closes above the line which is the close of A.
The red line is the POC (Point of Control). This is the price at which most trading has happened.
I inferred several things from this line:
-this is a significant support and resistance
-many positions are entering here
-overall fundamentals support a bullish bias for Gold
-therefore, I'm assuming many of these are buys
I had a buy from just below the break of the box to just below A after the consolidation.
GBPUSD receives support from 1.2030 GBPUSD receives qualitative support from 1.2030 levels after Friday's drop caused by US employment data
And it regains part of its losses by returning above the pivotal 2080 range
This is not enough to go up
Today's close above 2125 indicates that the current selling pressure has calmed
2165 with positive momentum announces strong entry for buyers
EURUSD still trading sidewaysEURUSD is still trading without a clear direction. After the last impulse during NFP, we now expect to see price testing the support.
Until we see a breakout in either direction outside of the range, EURUSD isn't the best pair to trade right now.
There is a higher probability that we will see the market testing 1,0121 and in case of a breakout we will be looking for a continuation of the downtrend!
How did the market react after July’s Non-Farm Payrolls? The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) for July 2022 surprised many as it reported that the US economy added 528,000 jobs, more than twice the consensus forecast. Total NFP employment has now returned to the pre-pandemic level, when 20 million jobs were lost.
At the same time, the US Unemployment Rate decreased to 3.5%, the lowest rate since February 2020. Additionally, US Average Hourly Earnings MoM for July jumped by 0.5% for the month and 5.2% over the year ending in July.
US stocks ended last week mixed after the strong NFP. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.2%, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 fell by 0.2% and 0.5% respectively. The weekly closing, however, shows that NASDAQ 100 gained 2.2%, the S&P 500 gained 0.4%, and the Dow Jones lost 0.1%.
Gold and silver finished sharply lower, as metal traders took in the jobs and employment reports. XAU/USD fell by almost 0.90%, closing at $1,774 per ounce, while XAG/USD slipped by nearly 1.40% to 19.88 last Friday.
The data releases sent the US Dollar Index (DXY) to the upside, helping combat the decline it has experienced over the past few days. The DXY jumped 0.88% to above 106.60.
With individual forex pairs, the USD made significant gains, including:
EUR/USD fell by 0.67% to 1.01803
GBP/USD fell by 0.75% to 1.20703
AUD/USD fell by 0.84% to 0.69116
NZD/USD fell by 0.91% to 0.62260
The USD/JPY was the biggest mover, booking a 1.57% gain to 135.03. Technical analysis anticipated this move in the USD/JPY, with the DeMarker Indicator below 30, suggesting an oversold bias and prime conditions for a reversal. This uptrend might also continue as the price closed above the 50-EMA. Key areas to the upside might include 135.50, 135.60, 136.00, and 136.60.
Dollar Strengthens on NFP DataThe US dollar has gained incredible strength off of the Non Farm Payroll numbers, which came at a headline beat with employment at 3.5%. This suggests that the markets feel that the Fed is now more emboldened to hike rates even further at their September meeting. The DXY is still holding the range established when it started its sideways corrective phase after the pull back from the low 109's. We dipped down into the 105's, and subsequently pivoted back to the 106's, with 107.20 still an upper bound. If we retrace this rally, then expect support at 106.13 or the 105's.
What Today's Employment Data Means for Stocks and the FedNon Farm Payrolls introduced some volatility in stocks. The numbers came in hot, with a headline beat and unemployment at 3.5% . The S&P 500 had already edged higher, reaching our target of 4178, and establishing value between 4144 and 4178. The NFP data release introduced some volatility, with a small selloff extending past 4122 into the vacuum zone down to 4068. It appears the figures were priced in already, and stocks may be correcting because of that. Also, the strong numbers give the Fed more justification to hike rates in September. If stocks fall further watch for support at 4068, but be mindful of the vacuum zone below to 4009.
⚠️ XAUUSD 1W TF : NFP ⚠️ 08.05.22By analysing the gold chart in Weekly and 4H TF , we can see that currently the important short-term resistance is the price range of $1,783 to $1,810, and the price entered this zone twice this week, and both times faced strong pressure from the bears.The important support ranges are 1755$ to 1765$ and 1717$ to 1725$ respectively, this analysis complements the previous analysis!
Follow us for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help.
⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 08.05.2022
⚠️(DYOR)
❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
2Q US Non Farm Payroll record for GoldHi,
For those who are seeking US NFP data to enter on Friday tomorrow, you can see my chart to do the analysis for your direction. I will remain neutral for now. Please help me by liking my idea if you already get what you want. I really appreciate it.
Thank you very much.
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - NFP!KOG Report – NFP
This is our view for NFP today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price.
We’re going to keep this short this time as we don’t really want to get stuck around this price point if there is a move to come during NFP and the US session. We’ve done well this month so far with most of our targets being hit and the move on Gold that was illustrated in our reports now being completed.
For us this is a short region, however, we have NFP so it’s thrown a bit of a spanner in the works. For that reason we have plotted the higher levels on the chart that we feel would represent price regions to short from and the lower levels we feel would represent an opportunity to long from.
The key resistance here is that 1795-1806 level which has been used previously to propel the price in either direction so there is a possibility of a spike into that area before then coming down and then coming back up at some point. A break of this level and you can see the higher levels that we have illustrated, the highest one around 1825-35 is our preferred choice to short if it goes there!
When it comes to the lower levels, we’re looking for the price point of 1775 as a key region which if broken should take us down into that lower level shown where, based on strong support we feel an opportunity to take the long trade back up could be on the cards.
Please note, this chart is for NFP only at the moment, and that’s if the price moves. Lately, we’ve seen most NFP’s and FOMC are priced in and we don’t get much of a chop in the markets.
In summary, we’ve been following the same plan for a few months now and will remain with it. We can see a push to the upside at some point into that 1825-35 price point, so please keep this level in mind!
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
USD/CAD eyes Canada, US job reportsIt's a busy day in both Canada and the US, with both countries releasing July employment reports. It wasn't so long ago that US nonfarm payrolls was eagerly anticipated and was the most important event of the week. The NFP often had a significant impact on the movement of the US dollar. That has changed in the new economic landscape of red-hot inflation and central banks raising interest rates practically every month. The NFP has been overshadowed as the media breathlessly reports new inflation records and the threat of a recession. Still, the NFP remains an important indicator and a surprise reading can still shake up the markets.
The July NFP is expected at 250 thousand, following a surprisingly strong June release of 372 thousand. A weak reading will raise concerns about a recession, which would likely see US yields and the US dollar fall. Conversely, a stronger than expected number would probably boost yields and the US dollar, as a stronger labour market would allow the Fed to remain hawkish regarding rate policy.
The markets have priced in an inflation peak and the Fed winding up its rate-tightening cycle, which has sent the US dollar on a hasty retreat. Fed policy makers have been pushing back, sending out the message this week that there are more large hikes on the way as inflation is not yet under control. A strong NFP reading would reinforce the Fed's message and provide some support for the US dollar.
Canada will also publish employment data later today. The economy is expected to have created 20.0 thousand jobs in July, after a decline of 43.2 thousand in May. A stronger-than-expected reading should boost the Canadian dollar, while an underperformance could result in the currency losing ground. As well, Canada releases Ivey PMI. The indicator slumped to 62.2 in June, down from 72.0, and is expected to slow to 60.3. A surprise reading could have an impact on the direction of USD/CAD in the North American session.
USD/CAD is putting pressure on 1.2899. Above, there is resistance at 1.3002
USD/CAD has support at 1.2741 and 1.2686
EURUSD before NFP EURUSD is still trading sideways after breaking above 1,0210 yesterday and basically showing no strength for a downside move.
It's now heading towards the main resistance below 1,0300. Every next time we see a test of that it will be much likely to actually see a breakout as well.
Today, NFP will be published. This is an important economic event for the market and we should see some reaction.
We will be looking how this pairs will behave around the resistance but right now we don't have any entries here on EURUSD!
There are better opportunities on the JPY cross pairs!