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Canadian dollar eyes job data in Canada, USThe Canadian dollar is back below the 1.3000 line today. USD/CAD is trading at 1.2987 in the North American session, down 0.37%. On the economic calendar, Canada's Ivey PMI was a major disappointment, slowing to 62.2 in June from 72.0 in May (74.0 exp.). Friday's focus will be on job numbers, with both Canada and the US releasing employment reports for June. Canada is expecting a modest gain of 23.5 thousand new jobs, down from the 39.8 thousand gain in May. With the unemployment rate forecast to remain unchanged at 5.1%, the US numbers could prove to be more interesting to investors. US nonfarm payrolls used to be hotly anticipated as one of the most important indicators, but NFP has taken a step back as inflation and Fed rate policy have become the main focus of the markets. Still, tomorrow's NFP could be a market-mover, as investors may rely on it for guidance on the health of the US economy. Investors are hearing the "R" word bandied around more often, as fears of a recession in the US are rising. The economy showed negative growth in the first quarter, and another quarter of contraction would officially signify a recession. If NFP misses expectations, investors could view it as a sign that the economy is losing steam. That could well make the Fed ease up rate hikes and push the US dollar lower. The consensus for NFP stands at 275 thousand, after a gain in May of 390 thousand. Canada has not been immune from soaring inflation, as headline CPI rose to 7.7% in May, its highest level since January 1983. Similar to the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada has scrambled to tighten policy in order to wrestle down inflation, which has become the central bank's public enemy number one. There are expectations that the BoC may follow the Fed's lead and deliver a super-size 0.75% rate hike at its July 12th meeting. Inflationary pressures are broad-based across the economy, which raises the risk of inflation and inflation expectations becoming entrenched, something the BoC is keen to avoid. 1.3038 is a weak resistance line. Above, there is resistance at 1.3109 USD/CAD has support at 1.2961 and 1.2813
by OANDA
MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK ON THE DOLLARFor the longest time, I have been debating whether or not to begin posting my trading sentiments since the trading community I look after & am a part of is a very private one. That said. we are in unprecedented times, a lot of people do not know what is coming their way. nevermind how to protect themselves/ take advantage of relevant opportunities. So I have decided to help those who are looking to understand financial markets not only from a trading perspective but from an actual investing perspective. So as my first post, let's take a look at a currency that impacts the rest of the global & emerging market currencies & that can help you plan your trading approach over the next 3 - 6 months. But before we do that kindly understand the following: As a former investment bank trading analyst. There is absolutely noway you can incorporate technical analysis without fundamental analysis. When I see retail traders/people just speak about technical analysis and understand nothing about fundamental dynamics & how it affects trading pairs/executions/decisions as a whole, not only do I laugh but it also makes me understand why there is truly only 5-10% of retail traders globally that are consistently profitable. But enough about that, let's get to the charts! DOLLAR INDEX OUTLOOK: Fundamental ( DOWNSIDE ): If another rate hike takes place & MONKEYPOX cases cross the 10K margin in the US &/or employment numbers (NFP) drop. Technical ( DOWNSIDE ): Should the above fundamental case happen, trading opportunities can be taken advantage of through the WXY scenario, where X represents the entry-point. Fundamental ( UPSIDE ): A rate hike & more stimulus money will see the dollar go up. Mid-term elections being favourable would also send the dollar much higher. Technical (UPSIDE ): The above fundamentals taking place would allow scenario ABC to take effect with point B representing the optimal entry-point for relevant trades. Let us see how it plays out, as for exact entry points and iterations to this post as time goes on, that will be given to members only. However, that said, I am willing to do analysis on different pairs/derivatives' on behalf of those who would appreciate an informed opinion on both the technical and fundamental sides. At the end of the day I want to see traders progressing and doing much better but the truth is you need to understand the markets from a technical & fundamental perspective in order to truly be successful as a trader & ultimately become an active investor in financial markets. If all you have been doing at this point in time is trading only incorporating technical analysis then all you are/have been doing is donating money to the market, your broker/s and my former employers in the investment banking/hedge fun world. :) Don't forget to like & comment, I look forward to beginning this new journey with all of you!! :)))
INDEX:DXY
by No-NonsenseFX_
XAUUSD 2H TA : 06.10.22 (Update)Examining the important supply and demand zones in GOLD : Appealing ranges for the BUY and SELL positions are marked on the chart. (The price has now reached an important level of demand zone and we have to see if the price can be accompanied by strong demand with the announcement of inflation data that will be published in a few minutes , (CPI) ) Follow us for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 06.10.2022 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ArmanShabanTrading
3
Aussie slips after strong NFP reportThe Australian dollar has reversed directions on Friday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.7225, down 0.55% on the day. US nonfarm payrolls are traditionally the highlight of the week, but the Ukraine war, spiralling inflation and surging oil prices have taken up much of the market's attention. This has reduced some of the hype around recent NFP releases, but they still have the potential to move markets. The May nonfarm payrolls report outperformed expectations, with a gain of 390 thousand, above the forecast of 325 thousand. We'll have to give the markets some time to digest the reading, but it's certainly possible that the strong numbers will see investors price in more Fed tightening, which will give the US dollar a boost, especially against the risk-sensitive Australian dollar. AUD/USD has already reacted to the NFP with considerable losses. It will be interesting to see how Fed policy members react to the nonfarm payrolls release, and whether some Fed members call for the Fed to increase the pace or extent of tightening. The Reserve Bank of Australia holds its policy meeting on Tuesday and will continue its rate-tightening cycle. The current benchmark rate is only 0.35% and the Bank is widely expected to hike by 0.35%, which would represent a compromise between a 0.25% and a 0.50% move. With inflation continuing to accelerate, the RBA is expected to raise rates to 3% or even higher, which means that we will likely see the RBA raising rates throughout the second half of the year and into 2023. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.7207. Above, there is resistance at 0.7252 There is support at 0.7121 and 0.7076
by OANDA
USDCHF I Pullback & Headed UpwardWelcome back! Here's an analysis of this pair! **USDCHF - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support! Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
2
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT FROM XAU/USD BASED ON NFP COMEOUTS?Happy Friday, TradingView community! You've made it through another successful week of trading (hopefully); however, we're not done yet. In an hour and a half from the time of writing this post, we're having the NFP data released for US economy as it is the first Friday of the month. Non-farm payrolls give us an insight into the change in Average Hourly Earning, Employment change and subsequent Unemployment rate in the United States. As you might guess, this would be quite an important news release for any world economy. Overall, the projections for this month are quite conservative. Thus, most people expect the more likely scenario of the "Actual" NFP data to be better than the initial forecast. This would be the positive reading for USD and all the pairs that have USD as a first currency. In this case, for XAUUSD we have a drop till 1830s with a further retest and bounce all the way to 1790. However, we also made sure to include Scenario #2 for the case of "Actual" being lower than the "Forecast" (less likely). It is pretty self-explanatory, yet not as likely as the previous scenario. Either way, we're looking to clarify some direction for the next week and make some money along the way :)
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Investroy
8
GBPUSD : Current Situation & Technical , Fundamental View- DXY is currently at 101.668 LEVEL. Also the GBP FEATURE stays at 1.2573 LEVEL. GBPUSD PRICE is slightly higher than DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS. Maybe Sell to DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS before another UP. Then most of the time the PRICE can be sold in the form of STRUCTURE. - Currently the SENTIMENT of the OVERALL MARKET is RISK OFF. Also EQUITIES is giving a slightly MIXED RISK Tone. VIX INDEXES DOWN. But they can be UP. Also COMMODITIES now shows a DOWN SIDE BIAS. Currently the MARKET has a RISK OFF SENTIMENT. So be on the lookout, maybe in the NEWYORK SESSION in the market, maybe RISK ON today is Friday. - GBPUSD PRICE can be UP to 1.2861 LEVEL before DOWN. After that it can be DOWN to 1.1950 LEVEL. According to this week's ECONOMIC INDICATOR DATA and MARKET SENTIMENT. Then GBPUSD UP to LIVEL 1.2861 can be USD if a NEGATIVE SENTIMENT is received. FED UPDATES are very important for that.
by benny_marshall
New buying opportunities on EURUSD before NFPThis week EURUSD tricks us into switching directions a few times already. Today, we actually think it's clear were price wants to go next and that's 1,0900 It's the first Friday of the month which means we have NFP. We could expect some movements in the market. We're looking at possibly buying with stops below 1,0625, expecting for price to continue above 1,0900. In case of a drop to around 1,0700 and a bounce, then we can look to enter long.
Long
by ForexTrendline
11
Where is the US Dollar Heading?Foregoing the higher time frame structural integrity at this time (Stand by for an HTF Update), an intraday perspective at present day price delivery, highlights future potential for the upcoming High Impact News Event, Re: Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). Based on the annotated chart attached, this author is of the technical opinion that the US Dollar Index has 'shown its hand' to complete an impulsive bearish delivery to the downside. Therefore, in my opinion, we can be looking for shorting opportunities leading into this High Impact News Event, observing all rules of engagement as per your trading plan.
TVC:DXYShort
by UnknownUnicorn34908408
2
Bitcoin and the Markets: Tomorrow is D-Day ⚔️Yes, tomorrow is gonna be a HUGE daY. Tomorrow is judgment day, we like to call it D-Day because one cannot ignore. So here we go: ⚔️Tomorrow, Friday the 3rd/June is the Employment report for the USA, the all-mighty NFP ⚔️ Tomorrow will be HUGE HEADLINES therefor. ⚔️ Not interested about headlines? ⚔️ Well take a look at yesterday's massive dip because of this headline: www.bloomberg.com Again: ⚔️Employment is the KEY FACTOR as explained before: ⚔️Previously we had calculated the Top for Nasdaq precisely here: ⚔️Tomorrow's employment data will either 'make us or break us' in a huge way: www.bnnbloomberg.ca ⚔️⚔️⚔️⚔️Federal Reserve looks at EMPLOYMENT first before adjusting Monetary policy. ⚔️⚔️⚔️⚔️ It's called the 'Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate' : The Federal Reserve's two mandates were shaped in the 1970s. The first is to maintain maximum employment and the second is the keep prices stable while and long-term interest rates at moderate levels.2 Rather than trying to reach 100% employment, maximum employment means keeping it at levels that are seen in normal economic conditions when there is neither a boom nor a recession. Stable prices and moderate long-term interest rates are deemed one mandate. Long-term interest rates are set with an eye to managing pricing pressure and inflation. ref: www.investopedia.com Bitcoin will follow the markets, the markets will follow the NFP, we expect to have a nice dip to buy or a nice pump to short simply because volatility will be insane tomorrow, it could be Epic. Professor is considering trading Live? Would you like that? One Love, the FXPROFESSOR⚔️ Watch this video.. it's worth it
Long
by FX_Professor
8
EUR/USD Holds On To Slim Gains After NFPThe EUR/USD managed to advance modestly on Friday following the US nonfarm payrolls data release as the greenback pulled back across the board. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 1.0550 area, holding on to slight daily and weekly gains after pulling back from a daily high of 1.0598. US nonfarm payrolls came out in line with market estimates. The US economy added 428,000 new jobs in April, versus 391,000 expected, while the average hourly earnings rose 5.5% YoY and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6%. However, with the Fed's monetary policy path set, the European Central Bank's gradual and accommodative monetary stance is the main factor that could continue to weaken the euro. In addition, risk aversion coming from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the outbreaks of Covid-19 in China will likely continue to favor the greenback. From a technical standpoint, the outlook remains clearly bearish according to the weekly chart, even though the EUR/USD is poised to post its first weekly gain after four consecutive falls. The daily chart shows the same picture as the pair continues to move sideways between 1.0500 and 1.0600 after a six-day losing streak seen in late April. The RSI has gained an upward slope but remains below its midline, while the MACD remains in sellers’ territory, although showing decreasing selling momentum. On the downside, the EUR/USD pair could find immediate support in the 1.0500-1.0490 area, where the psychological level converges with the weekly low. A loss of this area could expose the five-year low struck last week at 1.0470 and the 1.0400 zone. On the other hand, immediate resistance is seen at the 20-day moving average, currently at 1.0710, followed by the 1.0800 area.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - NFP!KOG Report NFP: This is our view for NFP today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price. We’re going to keep this brief today as its very likely we won’t be trading this release unless our key levels are hit and then we may look to take a position. So far this week we’ve hit the lower target on Gold and we’ve hit the 1913-15 target on Gold. This leaves us with two values, one above and one below that we now want to target. The level above is illustrated on the chart and is around the 1925 price region, this level we feel would represent an opportunity to take the short trade back towards the lower targets starting at 1840. The lower target is an aggressive low which is situated around the 1825 region. A push on the price towards this level we feel would represent an opportunity to take the long trade back up to target the 1850, 1860 and above that 1880 levels. Just as we saw with the FOMC report we swung into our zone and the price reacted giving the short. This time we’ll wait again at the higher or lower regions and not get involved on the intraday levels, especially on a Friday! Hope this helps in preparation for NFP. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe.
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
10
AUDJPY - WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE MARKET SENTIMENT ??- Today presented their Monetary Policy Statement to AUD. They further stated that it is imperative that their statutory reserve ratios be increased further. No. It will in some way build a POSITIVE SENTIMENT to the Australian dollar. There is not much important news for JPY today. So the AUDJPY MARKET SENTIMENT will be FOLLOWED. - AUDJPY Must understand the MARKET SENTIMENT before doing TRADE. The current SENTIMENT has a very NEUTRAL SENTIMENT. Then you have to look for an understanding of VIX INDEX and JAPANESE FEATURE CHART. Then you need to see what happens in EQUITY MARKETS. Especially the Snp500 CHART. Then you need to understand DIVERGANCE and MARKET STRUCTURES. Having an understanding of COMMODITIES is a must. - The AUD FEATURE sold out a bit last week because the MARKETS continue to RISK OFF. But now HIGHER has got a HIGH. And then it's PULLBACK again. AUD FEATURE stands at 0.7039 LEVEL. JXY is currently down a bit. According to the MARKET SENTIMENT and the AUD can be slightly STRONG again. Price is below AUDJPY DYNAMIC LEVELS. - Currently the SENTIMENT of the OVERALL MARKET is NEUTRAL. But it's too heavy for RISK OFF status. Also the EQUITIES are turning a bit red. VIX INDEXES UP UP. Also COMMODITIES now shows a UP SIDE BIAS. Currently the market has a NEUTRAL BIAS. - AUDJPY PRICE can go to 91.14 LEVEL before UP. Then you can UP to 96.00 LEVEL. Buying AUDJPY is a bit risky if VIX is UP. Currently VIX is becoming UP. So wait until VOLATILITY RED and get the AUDJPY BUY ENTRY.
by benny_marshall
EURGBP - FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL VIEW- There is not much important news today for EUR or GBP. But this week's LOW IMPACT for EUR, but some very important news will be released. So we definitely need to be vigilant about the EUR today. - EUR FEATURE currently stands at 1.0592 LEVEL. We can see a very UP TREND compared to the previous days. This is because of the fact that ECB offers a very HAWKISH CENTRAL BANK UPDATE. It is located above the EURGBP DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS. Also the GBP FEATURE stays at 1.2351 LEVEL. The EURGBP PRICE is priced below the DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS. Therefore, most of the time the PRICE can be sold in the form of a STRUCTURE and BUY. Before that a RETRACEMENT can come to DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS. - Currently the SENTIMENT of the OVERALL MARKET is NEUTRAL. But it's too heavy for RISK OFF status. Also the EQUITIES are turning a bit red. VIX INDEXES UP UP. Also COMMODITIES now shows a UP SIDE BIAS. Currently the market has a NEUTRAL BIAS. - EURGBP PRICE can be DOWN to 0.8498 LEVEL before UP. Then you can UP to LEVEL 0.8584. Also the MARKET SENTIMENT may change after NFP. Be aware of how the ECONOMIC INDICATORS and MARKET SENTIMENT differ.
by benny_marshall
GBPUSD : Current Situation & Technical , Fundamental View- It is not possible to find any important ECONOMIC INDICATOR for GBP in ECONOMIC CALENDAR today. We can look forward to the USD NFP DATA release today at the NEWYORK SESSION. You definitely have to be careful about that. - DXY is currently at 103.533 LEVEL. Above the DXY 100 is a very good STRONG condition. Also the GBP FEATURE stays at 1.2443 LEVEL. GBPUSD PRICE has gone below DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS. Maybe DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS can be UP before moving further. Then most of the time the PRICE can be sold in the form of STRUCTURE. - Currently the SENTIMENT of the OVERALL MARKET is NEUTRAL. But it's too heavy for RISK OFF status. Also the EQUITIES are turning a bit red. VIX INDEXES UP UP. Also COMMODITIES now shows a UP SIDE BIAS. Currently the market has a NEUTRAL BIAS. - GBPUSD PRICE can be UP to 1.2588 LEVEL before DOWN. Then you can DOWN to 1.2080 LEVEL. According to this week's ECONOMIC INDICATOR DATA and MARKET SENTIMENT. Then GBPUSD UP to 1.3192 LEVEL can be USD if a NEGATIVE SENTIMENT is received. FED UPDATES are very important for that.
by benny_marshall
4H USDJPY buyers setting sights on resistance retest? Hi, trading view community. Looking at the $/J, the current 4-hour uptrend continues to trade above the range high, but the real test for us is above at 131.00. Price looks to be struggling at this stage close to the European open. If we did see a new move back to and above 131.00, you would think that buyer momentum is back on track, and the current trend has further to run. Today’s US employment figure could be a make or break after a very choppy two days of trade for the USD. Good trading
Long
by Eightcap