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Has The USD Avoided The Dreaded Taper Tantrum?With its back up against a wall, the US Federal Reserve has pledged to begin tapering its asset purchase program. Beginning later this month, the Federal Reserve will reduce the number of US Treasury Securities it purchases each month by US $10 billion and the number of Mortgage-Backed Securities by US $5 billion. How did the USD react to the Federal Reserve announcement? By all accounts, a dreaded ‘taper tantrum’ has been avoided in the wake of the announcement. At least in relation to the forex market. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell has been extremely careful to prime investors for this moment. For one, all hawkish commentary from the chairman has been mediated with dovish caveats. Admittedly, less senior Federal Reserve officials have done much of the leg work in hinting and out-right suggesting the need for a reduction in its purchases. Either way, the conversation surrounding tapering has been sustained for months, giving investors time to mull over the implications. As of writing, the USD index, the DXY has crossed back over the 94.00 mark and comfortable sits 94.33, up 0.53% since the Federal Reserve’s tapering announcement. Will the Federal Reserve continue to taper? The Federal Reserve will still be purchasing $105 billion worth of securities, with further reductions dependent on continuing favourable economic outlook. The Federal Reserve has indicated it is considering reducing spending, month over month, moving forward. However, if economic conditions deteriorate, the spending reductions could be nullified or reversed. The Federal Reserve will be keeping an eye on inflation and the number of jobs added to the economy each month. Inflation remains at a decade high A significant consideration of the Federal Reserve when determining its reduction in spending is the US inflation rate. While it is at a 13-year high, the Federal Reserve maintains that most of the inflation experienced heretofore is temporary. Octobers inflation number is released next Wednesday. Trading Economics is forecasting a 0.1% increase in US inflation. Up next: Non-Farm Payroll Another significant consideration of the Federal Reserve when determining its tapering is the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP). The NFP indicates how many non-farm jobs were added to the economy in a given month. The data for the October non-farm payroll will be released tonight to great anticipation. Trading Economics is forecasting 400K jobs, while the market consensus is a little more optimistic and is forecasting 450K jobs. The NFP has disappointed for the past two months, with actual job figures falling far short of the numbers predicted. Even so, the Federal Reserve has seen fit to begin tapering as job growth seemingly slows. Treasury Security Janet Yellen noted the US economy is still short 5 million jobs compared to pre-pandemic times, which will take the US years to recover at the current rate of job growth.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
XAUUSD 1H TF : 04.Nov.2021The previous analysis performed in 2-hour timeframe is still valid. This analysis is just a closer look at the previous chart. Given that the price has reached a significant static range after the Break of its dynamic resistance and has reacted negatively to it, I expect the price to fall again to the level of $ 1782 if the price does not stabilize above $ 1797. Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @Ar_M_An_4 📅 04.Nov.2021 ⚠️(DYOR)
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
1
Gold consoldating higher prior to NFP?OANDA:XAUUSD typically has little to no movement the day before NFP (non-farm payroll) So I wouldn't expect large moves today but I do see a perfect breakout pattern today and the larger timeframes show the momentum towards the bullish side. Also gold has been consistently bouncing between these price ranges with the current range being on the low side. I would recommend finding a good entry then closing out today before NFP because there's usually a stop hunt along with a huge push. Keep your eyes open and as always use a Stop Loss This is the breakout pattern I mean
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JakeBrandonCastro
EURSD AHEAD OF NFP (SHORT SETUP) USD could the dollar index be getting back on its feet. Fourth-quarter early bullishness could be setting in early to set tone for early sessions come 2022 first quarter. I am bullish on the dollar index. Technically I am looking to go long long on a long-term basis. USD could be setting itself up to justify the move going down following my observations of the dollar index, the dollar currency index is observed to have its own technical fulfillments that it should make on a long-term basis based on the strategies that I apply What do you think could be the next move or what do you have within your analysis of the same currency pairs that I just mentioned do you agree with my point of view or request a zoom meeting for further elaboration in here where I come from as far as my analysis is concerned happy trading first week of November thank you
Short
by Alpha_vuma
GBPJPY BUY ANALYSIS • market haa formed an upward trendline for the past months and has come back to respect it 7 times • earlier this month it respected it again and impulsed up and then during this month it lost some momentum, formed a corrective move and changed direction for a short period of time • at the end of last week it broke above a previous HIGHER HIGH and it was retesting it • there is two possible entries here, 1 at the new found level of support (BULLISH ENGULFING M30) which was a previous resistance or 2 when the corrective move breaks out to the upside • but then again this is the forex market anything can happen so we adapt when there's any change in our predictions GREAT SUCCESS!!!
Long
by K0KETSO
Do you switch off for NFP❓🤔I personally don't and this idea shows a EURUSD trade I'm currently in. We trade the plan and all the back test data at foot of this idea includes NFP days. Those spikes can be big and some times don't go the way we would like but on news days keep your risk and emotions in check. Trade details for current trade are shown on the chart. We are working the 15M time frame on this strategy. We're looking for the green line which is take profit target. Little red short arrow is entry point and purple line is stop loss. Previous trades can be seen on chart also that was a long that found TP. This was covered in one of my previous ideas also. Lets see how this one plays out on NFP day. ------------------------------------------ I try and share as many ideas as I can as and when I have time. My trades are automated so I am not sat in front of a screen daily. Jumping on random trade ideas 'willy-nilly' on Trading View trying to find that one trade that you can retire from is not a sustainable way to trade. You might get lucky, but it will always end one way. ------------------------------------------ Please hit the 👍 LIKE button if you like my ideas🙏 Also follow my profile, then you will receive a notification whenever I post a trading idea - so you don't miss them. 🙌 No one likes missing out, do they? Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this. The stats for this pair are shown below too. Thank you. Darren
Short
by pow_removetheguesswork
1
What The Disappointing NFP Report Really Means For The USDThe Nonfarm Payroll (aka, NFP report) is making a habit of missing its forecast by wide margins. September’s NFP rolled on Friday, revealing that a meagre 194K jobs had been added to the US economy last month. Perhaps the NFP report wouldn’t have been as disappointing had forecasts not predicted September added 500K jobs for the month. Job growth held to expectations within the leisure, hospitality, and retail sectors, adding a combined 130K jobs to the economy. However, a steep decline in education and healthcare professionals across the US severely undermined NFP predictions, down by 161K and 18K, respectively. Why the NFP matters to the Federal Reserve According to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, a “decent” September NFP would be needed for the Fed’s planned bond-buying slowdown (tapering) to remain on track for November. Without Powell’s definition of “decent” or a stated value that meets that definition, the market might have to scramble to figure out what the September NFP will mean for the Fed’s tapering roadmap. As it stands, the DXY is struggling to maintain momentum above the 94.00 level. A reversal or delay in the Fed tapering may expose further weakness in the USD. After the NFP; Economic Calendar Concerning the USD The markets will have a couple of days to decipher what the Fed might do in response to the lacklustre NFP. Helping the deciphering process will be the release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday, followed by several speeches from Fed representatives. Perhaps the most important of these will be from Lael Brainard on Wednesday and John Williams on Friday. Three additional economic reports will help determine the trajectory the USD takes this week. On Wednesday, expect data concerning the rate of inflation in the US (YoY) (SEP). Inflation in the US is forecast to remain stable at 5.3%. Used vehicles, one of the main culprits for the high inflation in 2021, has begun to subside in price. Supply constraints across multiple industries may be picking up this slack and slowing the pace at which inflation drops. Alternatively, supply constraints could pick up more than just the slack left by falling used vehicles, and with it, push inflation back in line or beyond the pandemic record of 5.4%. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly commented over the weekend pushing back against the idea that inflation is here to stay, throwing inflation’s new instigator, ‘supply constraints’, under the bus. Daly noted, “We have these really anxious-to-get-out-there-and-spend consumers hitting the wall of supply constraints, and of course the prices are going to rise…But I don’t see this as a long-term phenomenon.”. On Friday, expect back-to-back reports. First, US Retail Sales MoM SEP is forecast to remain flat, followed quickly by the Michigan Consumer Sentiment OCT, which is expected to rise by one point or two from 72.8 in September.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
XAUUSD SHORT TO 1742During Friday, we saw NFP manipulation push Gold up 1780 completing a 5 wave impulse move to the upside, before crashing back down again. As with every healthy trend, market requires a correction which we are now seeing in Gold. Now that the first impulse cycle is completed, I am expecting Gold to correct itself to the downside & fill in any imbalance created around the 1742-1738 zone, before starting the next impulse phase to the upside again. I will be catching this move on behalf of myself & my Account Management investors.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by BA_Investments
Gold special pre-NFP updateGoodday traders, A great scalping week we have had so far with many pips up and down to scalp. Gold is clearly waiting for a catalyst to get out of this $20 range, and NFP might just be the trigger. As mentioned earlier, the FED has two targets to raise interest rates and start tapering. The first is inflation above the 2% target per year (currently sits around 3.5%), so that is a check. ✅ The second is that the labor market gets going again, which is not the case thus far. ❌ Today's scenarios: 🔹 If NFP rises above 500k, then we will see a strong $50 bearish move on gold towards the 1680 support and a break of 1720. 🔹If NFP comes in as expected between 250k and 500k, gold will test the 1720 support zone. 🔹If we see NFP below 250k, gold will fly high towards the 1800 resistance zone, with an extension to 1830. 🔹In the case we see a decline of NFP, it is game over for the gold bears and gold is ready for a rocket to 1850-1870 in the coming 2-3 weeks Arguments For Stronger Non-Farm Payrolls 1. ADP Employment Change rises to 568,000 from 340,000 2. ISM Manufacturing Employment rises to 50.2 from 49 3. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index bounces in September 4. 4-Week Average Jobless Claims lower in September compared with August 5. Lower Continuing Claims Arguments for Weaker Non-Farm Payrolls 1. ISM Services Employment Index drops to 53 from 53.7 2. Conference Board Consumer Confidence hits seven-month low 3. Challenger Job cuts up 13.8% from 24-year low 4. St. Louis FED expecting to see a decline between 250k-500k based on preliminary data (Sept 30 candle) 🔮 My personal expectation is that NFP will miss the forecast and even a decline of about -250k, and we will fly towards my 1870 target in the coming 3 weeks. The charts however are showing us stronger daily bearish candles in the run-up to NFP this week, so it remains a gamble. Goodluck in a few hours! Cheers, Cesaro
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CesaroPelucci
19
USDCAD LONG expected - ADP Forecast + Oil Potential SPR ReleaseHello Traders Here is a new Buy Opportunity 💹USD/CAD - BUY STOP ✅ Entry @26.050 or above ✅TP-1# 26.200 ✅TP-2# 26.500 ✅TP-3# 27.000 ✅SL# 25.400 My Forecast : This Pair Will go up LONG USDCAD LONG expected - ADP Forecast + Oil Potential SPR Release Tomorow Friday NFP Release : Forecast 750K - Previous 235K Source : www.investing.com Crude Oil Bears Take Control on Inventory Build, Potential Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Release Source : www.dailyfx.com JamdeJam will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information contained within this channel including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals If you like this idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow. Don't hesitate to write comments.
Long
by jamdejam
1
USDCAD > Trading Plan Ahead of NFP!!I hope you are feeling generous and loving today to give me a like and leave a comment it will really support the creation of new free ideas for you. Analysis on #USDCAD the market did not respect its trendline resistance recently posted ideas about it, it is to be expected as I oil market is very strong. Now ahead of the NFP release I will wait for the market to move down and test my kill zone near 1.2500 which proved to be a very strong level and am expecting to see a reaction around this area. The Plan. wait for the market to come and test my kill zone, drop two lower time frames, look for reversal pattern, execute the trade if the rules for entry are met I always thank you so much for the time you spent here. Check today's analysis below⠀ >>“ luck is when preparation meets opportunity." _____________________________________________________________________________⠀ -Disclaimer: This information is not a recommendation to BUY or SELL. It is to be used for educational purposes only⠀ -Please note this is just a PREDICTION and I have no reason to act on it and neither should you
Long
by TheTradersAvenue
13
Gold analysis ahead of NFP: Its all about sentiment Fundamental View: It is almost clear that the fundamental reports are not dominating the gold market for a few weeks. Last two weeks are several U.S. market mover data have already been released. Most of the fundamental reports were printed positive, but they didn't help the USD against gold. The only reason behind these odd market movements is playing market sentiment. Most of the countries are facing inflationary pressure. So investors are scared of 2008 style economic crisis because of covid-19. As a result, sentiment is supporting safe-haven asset gold despite the U.S. positive financial reports. Today the bureau of labor statistics will release the U.S. job market report. NFP is a major economic report for a knee-jerk movement for the gold price, and there is no doubt. But the question is will this report help the USD, or will it be another message to investors? What will happen if the NFP print is positive than forecast? If the NFP report print is positive (above 500k) than forecast, there will be a positive impact on the USD against gold. I mean, the gold price will drop, at least for the next FOMC release. Because in the FOMC fed, members announced that the tapering is data-dependent. Of course, NFP is the major economic data. So, a positive NFP number will help the USD till another FOMC release. But keep it kind, as the market sentiment is helping the safe-haven asset gold. So, don't expect much that the gold will drop heavily. On the other hand, a positive labor market report may help test the gold price in the nearly 1720/1725 price zone. What will happen if the NFP print is negative than forecast? There will be a disaster in the market. Whether positive U.S reports cannot weaken the gold, negative reports must throw the dollar in the air because market sentiment is helping to raise the gold price as a safe-haven asset. SO, if the NFP report prints negative than the forecast, we may buy gold again till the 1830/1835 price zone. Today NFP forecasted 490k jobs would be added in the labor market where the last report was 235k. I think NFP will be positive. Because some latest major economic reports like ADP, ISM reports, Unemployment claims, Core PCE, and Final GDP printed positively than forecast. So, there is a big chance that the NFP may print positive today. Technical view: From the present rate, 1765 to 177o is identifying the resistance level. So, breaking above 1770 will open the door for the 1780/1785 price zone. So 1785 may play as a strong resistance level. But if the NFP print is too negative, gold will immediately break the 1785 price and may test the next resistance 1800/1805 price zone. And to the final upside target is the 1830/1835 price zone. On the other hand, a positive NFP report may help the USD. from the present rate 1745 is identifying near-term support. After breaking and stable below 1745, our next target is the 1735/1730 price zone. After breaking below 1730, our final downside target is the 1720/1723 price zone.
TVC:GOLD
by Gold_Trading_Expert
2
EURUSD: 1.15000 after NFPAnd so, the Euro is trading at 1.15630 ahead of the NFP. Analysts predict a positive NFP for the US dollar. Also, the currency pair remains bearish mood. A scenario is quite possible in which immediately after the release of news data, the price would sharply fall to 1.15000 and, most likely, rebound up again. The price range today is the price area 1.15000 - 1.15890. Remember, there is no place for luck in trading - only strategy! Thanks for the likes and comments.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn15614419
2
EURUSD before NFPEveryone who has been following our daily analysis knows what we expect from EURUSD As of right now everything remains the same! The key resistance is 1,1580 and once price rejects it, this will be our entry with targets down to 1,1510. Entries before NFP are quite risky and not so reasonable. We did have some good opportunities, but now we have to wait. We will be waiting for the news to come out and the first few minutes after that. Price will probably rise and it will then leave a long wick to the upside, which will be the best entry signal.
Short
by ForexTrendline
23