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Nfp

Key Points From The U.S. NFP Jobs Report (09 August 2021)KEY POINTS: In July, 943,000 jobs were created Highest figure since August 2020; main driver of this strong increase is the Leisure and Hospitality sector Number of jobs created in June was revised upwards from 850,000 to 938,000 Number of jobs created in May was also revised upwards from 583,000 to 614,000 Total number of jobs at the moment is still around 5.8 million below the pre-pandemic level Unemployment rate declined from 5.9% to 5.4% Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% Rising demand for labour likely led to the rise in earnings Participation rate inched higher from 61.6 to 61.7
TVC:DXY
by GH_Lee
Non-farm Payrolls - Data Expected to Be Stunning!Following last week's Fed meeting, it was clear that the central bank was only putting off hawkish rhetoric, but was not ruling it out in the near future. Consequently, the basis for expectations is there, we just need data that would indicate that the economy continues to grow. The hope is the U.S. unemployment report coming out this Friday. It is expected that job growth, the most important indicator in terms of the Fed's post-pandemic policy impact could show a figure close to a million. If the economy creates more jobs than forecast, the odds increase sharply that the Fed will warn in August about a policy adjustment - a reduction in the pace of asset purchases (treasuries and mortgage-backed securities), probably this year. In that case, long-dated bonds would become slightly less profitable, given the approval of the infrastructure plan, which would require new borrowing, investors could start exiting treasuries en masse. Non-Farm Payrolls Employment Last data: 850K Consensus Forecast: 880K The Non-Farm employment change measures the change in the number of people employed during the last month in the non-farm sector. Total Non-Farm Payrolls represent about 80% of the workers who produce all of the Gross Domestic Product of the United States. It is the most important piece of data contained in the employment report that offers the best overview of the economy. Monthly changes and adjustments in the data can be very volatile. U.S. Average Hourly Earnings YoY Last data: 0.3% Consensus forecast: 0.3% Unemployment Rate Past data: 5.9% Consensus forecast: 5.7% The unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively looking for a job and willing to work in the United States. A high percentage indicates weakness in the labor market. A low percentage is positive for the U.S. labor market and should be taken as a positive factor for the USD.
Short
by FOREXN1
8
GOLD after NFP! Where is it going?During the last month GOLD has been ranging between the 1790-1930 levels. Sooner or later everything is changing and this will end. The news today are a suitable moment for a breakout of this range. The initial impulse is strong and we now have a close below the support. The next support to keep an eye on is at 1760! If you currently have any short positions you can leave them with those targets and also move your SL to break even. We don't suggest entering any short trades now with targets at 1760. If you get involved now, then you won't have a good risk to reward ratio! That's why it will be better to miss this move rather then enter a position right now. In case of a pullback to the resistance, then we could look for a reversal signal and then possibly find a better entry. Are we going to have another entry opportunity? Well, that depends on how this move will continue. Follow us to see how this situation on GOLD will develop! Support us by follow, like and leave a comment down below!
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by ForexTrendline
25
Gold Following our predictionFirstly, I would like to highlight the breakout even from last sideway zone 1806-1809. The price gain momentum and going down almost immediately to 1797.88 before making pullback and close below the sideway zone. This show that now, the price will looking for the nearest resistance before continuing its journey to our buy zone. And as for now, after the price making retracement at the 1806-1809 zone, the price go to our SND Zone for buy which is the yellow zone, 1798.51-1800.48. and now its playing around the zone for quite several times today (See H1). I am expecting the price to hit the lowest nearest support at Super Low Risk by NFP today. MY PLAN FOR NFP? 1. If the price still around this zone (1798.51-1800.48), I will looking for breakout and scalping for sell with closest target @ 1796-1794. Second TP would be to Super Low Risk zone @ 1790- 1793. And the we are looking for buy in the zone. But to trade at first TP area for buy position is quite risky because of price momentum during NFP, thus i suggested to wait the data and also for super low risk zone. 2. If the price already went down, we just wait for retracement in the SLRZ (super low risk zone) or LRZ (low risk zone), depend on the timing, momentum, and price action. Most important not to hold your position for too long. Just take your profit if Full Margin around 20-30 pips, or maybe take control manually your trade to avoid big losses. Anyway, NFP is a very high risk and volatile trading, thus manage your capital wisely. Its an event for going big or go home. If you have some willing to lose money without any regret, this is your time. If there is any opinion regarding my idea, you guys can comment and we will discuss different view regarding our market today. Best of luck guys. -EraBiru, HXF Academy- HXF FX
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ridzwanfahmie1
XAU- Before the storm.NFP day, the excitement for the month, and I have picked up on this harmonic structure on the 30m timeframe, Now if we can see DXY make a move down to S3 support and the weekly low around 91.80 this harmonic will work a treat, However you need to wait for confirmation of this move, we need volume or PA to tell us we have found support, currently price is struggling and hasnt reacted that strongly, but we are in a dead spot before London and New york and more importantly for today the NFP volume, Proceed with caution, but thought id share what I see currently with you guys.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn25686702
3
Nonfarm-Payrolls expected effect on S&P500 (SPX) and EUR/USDDuring the last 10 months the correlation of surprises for ADP Nonfarm employment change and Nonfarm payrolls is positive (58%). This means that if we saw a negative ADP nonfarm employment change on Wednesday, we should see a negative nonfarm payroll today. This is however not certain. In fact, the February ADP came out with a -34% negative surprise while the NFP came out with a +108% positive surprise. The historical correlation of the nonfarm payrolls with the same day SPX return is around 6%. This is a non-significant positive correlation. On average, the SPX tend to register a positive return independently from the nonfarm payrolls report. For this reason, even if we are seeing a negative NFP figure today, the market is still probably gonna perform well. The average return of SPX on the NFP publication day is +0.48% (+0.80% if we exclude negative historical returns). Therefore, we expect a positive move with an accumulation in the $4450-$4470 area. Similar to the SPX, the EUR/USD cross tends to react positively to the NFP announcement in the 15/60 minutes period after the NFP announcement. In this respect, we expect a positive increase of around +15/+20 pips in the 15/60 minutes period after the NFP publication.
TVC:SPXLong
by CucabarraTrading
Special Gold pre-NFP UpdateGoodmorning traders and welcome to the most important day of the rest of the month. It is exactly 1 year ago when gold made its all time high at $2075. The FED has two targets to raise interest rates and start tapering. The first is inflation above the 2% target per year (currently sits around 3.5%), so that is a check. ✅ The second is that the labor market gets going again, which is not the case thus far. Today might change that: 🔹 If NFP rises above 870k (whispers are talking about 1 million+ jobs), then we will see a strong $100 bearish move on gold before the end of month. 🔹If NFP comes in as expected between 800k and 900k, gold will test the 1790 support zone and we remain in the month long range 1790-1835 until Jackson Hole. 🔹If we see NFP coming in between 600k-800k, gold will surely test the 1830 resistance zone, with an extension to 1850. 🔹Below 600k and it is game over for the gold bears and gold is ready for a rocket to 1900. Arguments For Stronger Non-Farm Payrolls • Employment component of ISM Non-Manufacturing rises to 53.8 from 49.3 • Employment component of ISM Manufacturing rises to 52.9 from 49.9 • Challenger job cuts drop to 21-year low • University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rises to 85.5 • Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index hits pandemic high • Continuing Claims fall to pre-pandemic lows Arguments for Weaker Non-Farm Payrolls • ADP drops to 330,000 from 680,000 • Jobless claims have been missing forecast in the whole month of July and kept rising 🔮 My personal expectation is that NFP will miss the forecast and come in between 750k-850k and we remain ranging between 1790-1835 for the rest of the month. However, we can not ignore the charts and currently we have broken the bearflag and the daily is on the verge of creating a deathcross. All to played out in a few hours. Goodluck, and keep your TP's close but your SL's closer.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by CesaroPelucci
6
Eu Price action analysis coming into the London session Good Morning traders! Hope you are well. Todays forecast will be done on the 1hr timeframe to give more information. We are still in a over uptrend/buying range, with liquidity built above current PA. Over the past week price has retraced down and is now within the discount of the buy range, this offers great opportunity to go long. As always we look left for a range to mitigate. We can see one very obvious range this is marked in green-and its best seen on the 5minute TF. I will be looking for a sweep of the Asian lows and a trend change on the lower TF before entering long but price is shaping up nicely. One thing to note is that NFP is coming up so I will be more cautious getting closer to that time.
Long
by EnvisionEJ
EURUSD before NFP! What to expect?Today we are waiting for one of the most important economic news to come out. This is NFP for July. It is published together with other employment news and it has a big effect on the market. That's why we expect more volatility in the moment of publishing. Technically we're looking at possible rise in price during the news. That doesn't mean you should be buying now. Before and during the news we could actually see a drop in price. However if there is a reversal after the news, then we will be looking for entry. Another confirmation for an upside move will be market breaking above 1,1860. The final target is 1,1940. Do not buy before there is a reversal signal! On a downside impulse and price going below 1,1770 the buying opportunity isn't valid anymore! Follow how this setup will develop in our daily analysis here! Support us by follow, like and leave a comment down below!
Long
by ForexTrendline
26
Non- Farm Payroll Front RunAAII Bullish sentiment Indicator @ All Time Highs. ROC irrational optimism abounds - while sentiment remains extremely negative @ 38%. Housing Prices remain in an extraordinary Bubble with the 10yr approaching 1% from YCC. The ES SPY SPX Trend SLOPE is increasing. USDX appears to be supportive ~ 92. A weak US DX will shove assets higher within the Negative DX Trend. A clear structure of the resumption of Down Trend as the Long DX Trade which Specs chased is failing. FX Pairs have clear bias to Higher DX, outsized, but not extreme. Technical Structures across FX remain DX Bearish. Yields are telling us Equities would move higher and yet the expectations for the move higher was not met. _________________________________________________________________ *** Divergences continue to expand to Negative Extremes. NFP will be front run, Claims have been declining. August 6th may provide the Catalyst for Bulls, then again Delta is beginning to show large gains in New Cases among the Vaccinated. The Market remains extreme, Caution warranted. We remain Neutral into NFP.
FRED:NPPTTL
by HK_L61
1
Gold bulls' revenge will be sweet (Update 4)Hello traders and welcome to the August NFP-week. It promises to be a volatile one. In a word, the Oxford English Dictionary defines "august" as "impressive": as has historically been the month of August for Gold. Last Saturday the Chinese PMI fell below 50.5, the lowest reading since the COVID-outbreak of February 2020. They say China is the factory of the world, and the reading is not a contraction but clearly the 2nd biggest world economy is slowing down. Next to this the US PMI released yesterday missed forecasts and came in at 59.5. The US10Y yields made a fresh move lower this week and closed the day below 1.18 yesterday. These are all worrying signs for gold bears. Currently gold is being twisted and turned, pushed and pulled between two main fundamentals. First of all, the skyrocketing inflation and the slowing down of the economy. On the other hand the risk-on mood in equities is making gold unattractive for investors and traders to enter the goldmarket and some Hawkish FOMC members are spilling the beans for gold by their comments in the media. Everytime gold makes a nice bullish move, some FOMC member comes and spoils the bullish party, which makes investors wary of holding positions. The volumes are declining, positions are being closed (COT-report showed longs & shorts closed last week). Last week we had an impulse breakout move from 1790-1833 thanks to Uncle Powell, but gold lost most of its gains on the last day of the month. This was triggered by end of month outflows and remarks by other FOMC members that tapering should start asap this year. Nevertheless, gold remains supported by 1805 and we closed the week&month above all main H4 moving averages. Bulls entered the ring again from the golden fibo (0.382) on Monday and closed the day above the daily 21 EMA. Also we have a full house golden cross on H1, H4, Daily, Weekly & Monthly timeframe now. All these timeframes are operating in a golden cross formation currently, which strengthens my bullish view. The double top on 1833 is worrying from a technical point of view, and this needs to be taken out by the gold bulls for bigger bulls entering the market. As I mentioned in my previous weekly view, the NFP should be the bullish trigger for gold, until that time we remain rangebound with a bullish undertone and I expect gold to reach 1845 (and if we are lucky 1860) by end of this week. As long as the bull channel holds (which the lower band is around 1799 now) I remain bullish on gold and I will be buying dips. Love and hugs, Cesaro
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CesaroPelucci
1