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Gold bulls' revenge will be sweet (Update 3)Hi guys, After a well-deserved holiday, a week of acclimatising at home and adapting to current market dynamics, it's time to make some serious bucks from the market. First things first, I want to thank all my followers for following my trading adventure for over a year now. Now onto the meat and potatoes. What is happening in the market? It seems the market is losing it and all correlations that have been in place for months (if not years) are thrown out of the window. Silver up/gold down and vice versa, dollar up/gold up, US10Y down/dollar up. Totally irrational behaviour and when this happens, you know shit is about to hit the fan. This should not surprise anyone, because everything looks like a big bubble that is about to burst. The housing market, commodity prices, equities and other asset classes are trading at extremely high levels which have not seen before. Many respected analysts such as Jeremy Grantham (who has a proven trackrecord on bubble recognition) have voiced their deepest concerns about current market conditions and dynamics. With annualized monthly inflation running as high as 11%, real growth and the jobmarket not looking to improve, the stagflation ghost of the 1970-1980's is just around the corner. Stagflation is the magic word that will make gold propel to higher grounds and it is only since a week or two that analysts dare to pronounce the word in the respected media outlets. But before we see strong bullish PA on gold, we still have some time to kill. FOMC is planned on Wednesday and this is a key risk event for the market and gold in particular. After the big sell-off of June, where gold tumled more than $150, Powell turned dovish in front of the Senate and reiterated that it is too soon to raise interest rates and start tapering. I do not expect Powell to turn away from the script or give a timeline next Wednesday on tapering, but I do expect we will see a $20-$30 sell-off towards $1780-$1785, providing gold bulls with a fresh new entry for $1900+. August will be a hot summer month for precious metals in the lead-up to the Jackson Hole Symposium that is planned in the last week of August, and I am expecting NFP being the trigger for the bull rally. It is yet to be seen what will happen in Q4, but I am expecting some profit taking towards the yearly Christmas rally in December where I expect gold to make new all time highs in Q1 2022. I can not repeat enough that current market conditions and dynamics are extremely bullish for gold and buying on dips is the way to go, don't get noised out by the small bearish candles you see. You do not want to be on the wrong side when gold starts another $200 bull rally. COT-report is bullish and large speculators are losing their shorts and adding buys for 4 weeks in a row. Good luck and may the blue pips be on your side. Love and hugs, Cesaro
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CesaroPelucci
4
Market inflection PointM2 Money supply / DJI Nearing an area of support a fall through of the support line and we could see selling exhaustion that would cause the DJI to melt up. Where a boost in buying would see the DJI melt down. What could cause M2 to either be peddle to the medal or taking the foot off the gas.? Inflation, lets see how the fed can handle inflation. We have already had statements from non voting fed member one even saying " America can not afford another housing boom bust cycle." Well big boy you got the printer fire that thing up. New dollars hit the market rates go lower and boom, they got the housing market pumping all time highs. Conversely we could see the markets correct by the fed either pull back on the money printing and pausing we could see the M2/DJI rise.
FRED:WM2NSLong
by RobinhoodFX
XAUUSD (GOLD), Potential Big Drop from NFPMoments away from NFP. Economists expect the data to show that the economy added more than 575,000 jobs in March as the country continued to open. This will be a better figure than the 465,000 jobs that were created in February On the technical side of things, we can see that price is approaching a key resistance near 1790$ and is looking to be losing its bull momentum. We may see a strong wick towards the resistance and psychological level at 1800$ and then a slide towards next major support at 1730$ Should price form a break above 1800, then the selling setup is no longer valid
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by IAmDavidX
6
Solana - New TA Update!🎢Here we have Solana. Two price forecasts have been identified with the green arrows on the chart. 20 USD represents a strong support level with long wicks to the downside. Let's see where price heads! Solana is a crypto startup that builds and develops crypto apps for decentralized apps and marketplaces. The startup was founded in 2018 and is based in San Francisco, California. In other news, we have NFP release today. Be careful trading the Forex market.
Long
by Jal121
NFP Analytical Forecast : NFP Analytical Forecast : * NON-FARM PAYROLLS Forecast: 675K Previous: 559K * UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Forecast: 5.7% Previous: 5.8% * AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS Forecast: 0.3% Previous: 0.5% It is also important to pay attention to these three indicators with the NFP release. That is, NON-FARM PAYROLLS, AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS, and UNEMPLOYMENT RATE The indicators were lower than previously thought. There are various reasons for this (like covid119, ...). But this time it was completely different. Here all three indicators must be taken into account: NON-FARM PAYROLLS, AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS, and UNEMPLOYMENT RATE As soon as the data comes out, the predictions should be compared with the actual numbers. If the actual figures of non-farm payrolls and average hourly earnings are higher than the expectations, and the unemployment rate lower, the USD Is will strengthened . If it goes against that, the US dollar will weaken. Should be considered. The above Prediction is how I think. This can be right or wrong. I do not mention following my predictions. Therefore, I am not responsible for it.
by DhammikaP
EURJPY analysis | Entry before the NFPWe are expecting the publishing of Non Farm Payrolls today. This is a very important news which will cause some big moves. Be careful with any positions that you open prior to that! We found an opportunity on EURJPY. This pair won't be affected by the USD, but the EURUSD and USDJPY instead. No matter if we see a negative or positive news later on today we are expecting higher values on EURJPY! Currently we have an uptrend on M30 which is also confirmed by the higher timeframes and that's why we expect market reaching 132,75. Once price gets there we will have another look at the setup. Follow us for more specific opportunities!
Long
by ForexTrendline
7
How to trade The News Correctly Trading strategies on news for many traders play an important role, since one news can take a very good movement, it is important to observe the nuances of such strategies. The essence of the strategy is to catch the movement and make money at the moment of the release of important news, becauseof which, most often, the volatility of the instruments we are interested in increases significantly, and it does not matter from the direction where the price will go. NUANCES: 1) the entry point is located outside the range, in which the price was moving before the news was released 2) place two identical deals at the same distance in different directions 3) do not forget about stop loss 4) do not forget to set take profit What a trader can get by trading on the news 1) At high volatility , slippage can be obtained. At such a moment, the trader can get both a larger loss than the planned one, or a smaller profit, and quite the opposite. More often slippage is bad for the trader's account 2) False breakout, which can deceive you and give you a loss 3) Bad work of the broker, usually if you use the services of "Kitchen". they "process" a lot of traders on the news in their favor. What news is it permissible to trade such a strategy on: Important news: 🔼 NFP 🔼 Retail Sales 🔼 Trade Balances 🔼 CPI 🔼 FOMC The movement that a trader can pick up can be up to 50-70 points in some currency pairs. What currencies and why 🔼 EUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔼 USD/JPY These are the most traded currency pairs in the world, gold is not taken into account, the expected movement in these pairs can be up to 50-70 pips. Important to remember ❗ : 🔼 These are the most aggressive strategies 🔼 You, during the news release, have no advantages, without this it is difficult to win 🔼 And it is best not to trade before and after the news release for at least half an hour. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with likes. Thank you for your support!
Education
by DeGRAM
7
How to trade The News Correctly Trading strategies on news for many traders play an important role, since one news can take a very good movement, it is important to observe the nuances of such strategies. The essence of the strategy is to catch the movement and make money at the moment of the release of important news, becauseof which, most often, the volatility of the instruments we are interested in increases significantly, and it does not matter from the direction where the price will go. NUANCES: 1) the entry point is located outside the range, in which the price was moving before the news was released 2) place two identical deals at the same distance in different directions 3) do not forget about stop loss 4) do not forget to set take profit What a trader can get by trading on the news 1) At high volatility, slippage can be obtained. At such a moment, the trader can get both a larger loss than the planned one, or a smaller profit, and quite the opposite. More often slippage is bad for the trader's account 2) False breakout, which can deceive you and give you a loss 3) Bad work of the broker, usually if you use the services of "Kitchen". they "process" a lot of traders on the news in their favor. What news is it permissible to trade such a strategy on: Important news: 🔼 NFP 🔼 Retail Sales 🔼 Trade Balances 🔼 CPI 🔼 FOMC The movement that a trader can pick up can be up to 50-70 points in some currency pairs. What currencies and why 🔼 EUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔼 USD/JPY These are the most traded currency pairs in the world, gold is not taken into account, the expected movement in these pairs can be up to 50-70 pips. Important to remember ❗ : 🔼 These are the most aggressive strategies 🔼 You, during the news release, have no advantages, without this it is difficult to win 🔼 And it is best not to trade before and after the news release for at least half an hour.
Education
by DeGRAM
2
EURUSD Market Recap== MARKET RECAP == Following the FOMC Meeting held on Wednesday June 16th, the greenback sored against all major currencies dropping EURUSD down to fresh monthly lows around 1.1850 The strength of the US Dollar was contributed to the hawkish undertone of potentially easing monetary policy sooner than what Fed officials thought in their previous 18 member quarterly meeting. The Fed also adjusted their economic outlook for 2021, 2022 and 2023. More than half of the members see 2 rate hikes by 2023 and many also see rate hikes as early as 2022. Talks of tapering in terms of reducing asset purchases was amongst some of the comments made at the FOMC. Last week the US dollar pulled back heading into Jerome Powell's testimony and continued to retrace following the meeting in the Q&A session. The Fed has always be reliant on economic data and wants to see a stronger recovery along with full employment before they will raise interest rates. On Friday the PCE report (the Fed's #1 economic tool for indications of real inflation) came in line with expectations at 3.4% which was a rise of 3 basis points from the previous report of 3.1% in May. This is a clear indication that inflation is on the rise, however the fed continues to foresee inflation as transitory. GDP figures also came in line with expectations of 6.4% from the previous quarter of 4.3% which are levels much higher than reports back in 2018 and 2019. Next week, some of the major reports to look out for include: ADP on Wednesday, ISM Manufacturing PMI on Thursday, along with NFP and the Unemployment figures on Friday. Should all of these reports beat expectations, the US Dollar will likely strengthen further. On the other hand, if numbers disappoint, the USD may remain under pressure as speculators anticipate the potential tapering timeline may be extended. == TECHNICAL ANALYSIS == Taking a look at EURUSD on the daily time-frame, price-action closed below the 1.1950 pivot zone along with the 200 SMA. Next week should we see a new daily lower low, this may spark some renewed dollar strength and thus push this pair lower. A break above Friday's high price may sideline further declines with EURUSD as price-action will look to break above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
by LEFTURN
Stocks Jump on NFP Numbers. What's Next??The NFP numbers Friday destroyed our short trade based on the otherwise reliable Gartley pattern. We have hit highs again at 4228, and if momentum continues we will seek 4245. Watch for momentum at open because we are at some serious levels of resistance which will take some momentum to punch through. If we do not see this momentum, we can strongly consider a short trade back down to 4188. If we see some bear momentum, our Gartley pattern has a target of 4144 or so. The Kovach OBV has jumped from the NFP momentum, but has since leveled off.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy