How to trade The News Correctly Trading strategies on news for many traders play an important role, since one news can take a very good movement, it is important to observe the nuances of such strategies.
The essence of the strategy is to catch the movement and make money at the moment of the release of important news, becauseof which, most often, the volatility of the instruments we are interested in increases significantly, and it does not matter from the direction where the price will go.
NUANCES:
1) the entry point is located outside the range, in which the price was moving before the news was released
2) place two identical deals at the same distance in different directions
3) do not forget about stop loss
4) do not forget to set take profit
What a trader can get by trading on the news
1) At high volatility, slippage can be obtained. At such a moment, the trader can get both a larger loss than the planned one, or a smaller profit, and quite the opposite. More often slippage is bad for the trader's account
2) False breakout, which can deceive you and give you a loss
3) Bad work of the broker, usually if you use the services of "Kitchen". they "process" a lot of traders on the news in their favor.
What news is it permissible to trade such a strategy on:
Important news:
🔼 NFP
🔼 Retail Sales
🔼 Trade Balances
🔼 CPI
🔼 FOMC
The movement that a trader can pick up can be up to 50-70 points in some currency pairs.
What currencies and why
🔼 EUR/USD
🔼 GBP/USD
🔼 USD/JPY
These are the most traded currency pairs in the world, gold is not taken into account, the expected movement in these pairs can be up to 50-70 pips.
Important to remember ❗ :
🔼 These are the most aggressive strategies
🔼 You, during the news release, have no advantages, without this it is difficult to win
🔼 And it is best not to trade before and after the news release for at least half an hour.
Nfp
29.06.2021 - GOLD "Zizak" for Long-termPrice level 1760 is a crucial support level for Gold. Breaking that level will probably cause a drop in price by over 50 US dollars per Oz. This might happen during NFP when the report will affect the US dollar. This is a daily chart which means the drop will not be rapid but expecting it to complete within days, not within one day.
EURUSD Market Recap== MARKET RECAP ==
Following the FOMC Meeting held on Wednesday June 16th, the greenback sored against all major currencies dropping EURUSD down to fresh monthly lows around 1.1850
The strength of the US Dollar was contributed to the hawkish undertone of potentially easing monetary policy sooner than what Fed officials thought in their previous 18 member quarterly meeting. The Fed also adjusted their economic outlook for 2021, 2022 and 2023. More than half of the members see 2 rate hikes by 2023 and many also see rate hikes as early as 2022. Talks of tapering in terms of reducing asset purchases was amongst some of the comments made at the FOMC.
Last week the US dollar pulled back heading into Jerome Powell's testimony and continued to retrace following the meeting in the Q&A session.
The Fed has always be reliant on economic data and wants to see a stronger recovery along with full employment before they will raise interest rates. On Friday the PCE report (the Fed's #1 economic tool for indications of real inflation) came in line with expectations at 3.4% which was a rise of 3 basis points from the previous report of 3.1% in May. This is a clear indication that inflation is on the rise, however the fed continues to foresee inflation as transitory.
GDP figures also came in line with expectations of 6.4% from the previous quarter of 4.3% which are levels much higher than reports back in 2018 and 2019.
Next week, some of the major reports to look out for include: ADP on Wednesday, ISM Manufacturing PMI on Thursday, along with NFP and the Unemployment figures on Friday. Should all of these reports beat expectations, the US Dollar will likely strengthen further. On the other hand, if numbers disappoint, the USD may remain under pressure as speculators anticipate the potential tapering timeline may be extended.
== TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ==
Taking a look at EURUSD on the daily time-frame, price-action closed below the 1.1950 pivot zone along with the 200 SMA. Next week should we see a new daily lower low, this may spark some renewed dollar strength and thus push this pair lower. A break above Friday's high price may sideline further declines with EURUSD as price-action will look to break above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stocks Jump on NFP Numbers. What's Next??The NFP numbers Friday destroyed our short trade based on the otherwise reliable Gartley pattern. We have hit highs again at 4228, and if momentum continues we will seek 4245. Watch for momentum at open because we are at some serious levels of resistance which will take some momentum to punch through. If we do not see this momentum, we can strongly consider a short trade back down to 4188. If we see some bear momentum, our Gartley pattern has a target of 4144 or so. The Kovach OBV has jumped from the NFP momentum, but has since leveled off.
EURUSD AnalysisOn Friday we saw disappointing numbers on the unemployment rate news in USA.
That affected the USD immediately. This week we have news from the ECB.
However, before that we expect that the effect from the Friday news will last and we will see higher values.
The resistance above current price level is at 1,2246.
This scenario is possible as long as we don't see price falling down below 1,2100!
XAUUSD Analysis for June NFPLooking to use June's NFP to my advantage to short XAU before it ultimately heads to the upside.
Prev results = 266
Cons = 664
Results predicted to be better than expected.
S&D zones, some support, and trendlines identified on the monthly/weekly/daily TF. Will use hourly candles for confirmation before entering.
DowJones/US30 ShortTrendline identified from weekly TF. S&D zones identified from 4H TF. Looks like an 'M' pattern has formed on the 4H so i'll be looking to sell in time for NFP tomorrow. May keep one position open through it.
USDCAD to break 1.21300 resistanceNFP trade idea
The upcoming NFP and Canada Unemployment rate are the catalyst for friday's movement.
My bias is toward the USD, NFP is expected to have a positive data in favor of the USD.
Trade Idea
Buy Entry: 1.2120
TP 1.22050
SL 1.20900
Buy Trigger
Move catalyst NFP expected to have positive data for USD
Price supported by EMA 20 pointing up
Risk Reward Ratio 2+
Stop loss at 1.20900 a break in this level could take the pair down to 1.2000 level
Excellent Opportunity to Sell Gold The price of gold is currently consolidating below the 100-day MA (in blue), ahead of the release of the May payrolls in the U.S. This looks like the peak of a minor pullback, which would allow bears to sell spot in anticipation for continued depreciation in the near future.
The 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement level seems like the most significant target for this new downtrend.
EURUSD AnalysisWe saw positive news for the USD yesterday which gained strength.
Then EURUSD broke below its previous low on the hourly chart.
Other important news are due today - NFP.
We expect to see some moves once the numbers come out, but it's more likely to see another push down to 1,2065.
DO NOT use a big lot size during news.
*This drop in price on EURUSD is not the main market direction!
June NFP Preview In this video we look ahead to NFP and share our insights into how the market could move during and after the NFP report.
In this video we look at EURUSD levels to watch, however its important to be considering all USD pairs (and stock indices) for how they may move in response to the NFP report later.
Long EUR-USD Friday June 4, 2021Predicting poor news for June US Non-Farm Payroll. Predicting a below forecast report, causing dollar weakness.
Additionally, weekly FED balance sheet showing continued growth in US money supply.
EUR/USD pair is trading near a key whole number price point. of 1.21. Expecting bullish momentum post-report.
Watch for stop hunt then big move in reversal.
NFP is Big- This NFP will be HUGE 🕊️ 🦅This NFP has an extra layer of expected Volatility and importance attached to it.
For starters, there will be speech from Jerome Powel (president of the Federal Reserve), 90 minutes before the NFP announcement. For any experienced trader this makes things even more interesting.
Take a look at the video and the Dollar index analysis and the rest will make sense.
This NFP will be a critical, decision making factor of whether the dollar will stand up on it's feet or it will dip into the abyss. The second is more probable but the Americans know how to 'play this game'...
Friday is close, mark the date.
the FXPROFESSOR
Gold Analysis - June 3-4th 2021Hello,
We are approaching a fundamental rally between tomorrow and Friday with the following economic events:
ADP (Automatic Data Processing) Non-Farm Employment - Expecting bad numbers
Unemployment Claims - Expecting bad numbers
PMI - Expecting good numbers
Average Hourly Earnings - Expecting bad numbers
NFP - Expecting good numbers
Unemployment Rate - Expecting good rate
Taking all this information and analyzing it, there is a 50/50 expectation towards the market. There is a very high possibility that Gold will drop into recent demand areas where Buys for me make a lot more sense at the moment continuing the strong bullish momentum it has had. I will be analyzing the following areas for High Risk High Reward Buys:
Zone 1 - 1893 (HRHR Buys)
Zone 2 - 1883 (HRHR Buys)
1st TP - 1912
2nd TP - 1923
From here to tomorrow I can easily see there will be consolidation preparing for the news on Thursday and Friday. If you see price taking a specific direction then consolidating it is preparing to do the complete opposite. In my experience Gold sets and prepares itself at a certain area which becomes a high demand zone, order block and then once news is released the orders will release as well.
Safe trading!
Understanding the NFP EU PumpHere are some questions I put out to my community group the other day followed by the answers. The reasoning being the move has been annotated on the chart.
Why did price slowly decline prior to NFP?
- Price had to decline slightly before NFP to mitigate the impulsive move created earlier in the day.
- Price had to stop out break and re-test buyers with a tight stop loss
- Price had to lure sellers into the market before NFP
Why did price reject the exact box marked before skyrocketing?
- Price skyrocketed because it had gathered enough liquidity from stopping out the buyers.
- It utilised the previous order block to skyrocket to take out the impulsive sellers before NFP.
DXY - What's next! Bears gain control!
We had US data NFP, a large miss increasing majors - which GBP is looking interesting! Now as I mentioned many times, I don't think tapering from Feds will be announced anytime soon, patience is really key with this. End of summer I feel there will be further mentioning. However, for now I really don't. The data hasn't been consistent ...So what do you do? Well, your trend is your friend until broken. Right now the bears are still in control and we have to respect that.
Technical Aspects:
Support: 89.99, 88.87, 88.24, 87.10
Resistance: 90.98, 92.55, 94.22
Pattern: Bear Flag (Channel)
89. 40 Below bears will gain further control
92.55 Above bulls will gain further control
Great move this week by precious metals! I feel the NFP did great movement to a lot of currencies finally!
Key Tip: I came across this amazing quote - "Successful people maintain a positive focus in life no matter what is going on around them. They stay focused on their past successes rather than their past failures, and on the next action steps they need to take to get them closer to the fulfillment of their goals rather than all the other distractions that life presents to them."
It's so true! Personal story I will share with you. When I was starting out and even now still you have these negative mindset people full of envy, hatred and have a very large ego...Weirdly, they the ones who are unsuccessful - wondering to themselves why are they succeeding? why aren't I? and the answer is: Not a crystal ball but focus on yourself, rather than causing drama in other peoples lives, being jealous and all the various negative actions you're taking, spend those precious timely moments on yourself. The only person you should be competing with is yourself.
Have a great week ahead!
Trade Journal
XAUUSD - How I caught 580 pips on Gold almost zero Drawdown💰💰Hello Traders😃
I have decided to make this educational post on a trade I took on the 5th of may which took profit after NFP✅
I believe there is a struggling trader who may be having difficulties putting it all together and creating a simple trading plan.
The first thing to remember is that trading is probabilities so we try to get as many reasons as possible in our favor before placing any single trade
If you see most of my ideas I highlight if a trade is medium probability or high probability and it’s mostly backed by these factors,
The more factors in my favor, the higher the probability ⚜️
In this trade I simply used these 5 reasons to get on this trade and all criteria was met perfectly.✊🏽
You don’t need a magic indicator or a lot of lines on your chart to be profitable
Remember simplicity is the key 🔑
Just these 5 factors helped me to secure 580 pips on a single trade with a healthy risk to reward too.😊
I caught a similar trade on the 15th of April which I’ve linked below and you can see the factors above
Keep things simple and repeatable♻️
God bless you😊
I wish you all a profitable trading career
Slick⚜️