EURUSD AnalysisOn Friday we saw disappointing numbers on the unemployment rate news in USA.
That affected the USD immediately. This week we have news from the ECB.
However, before that we expect that the effect from the Friday news will last and we will see higher values.
The resistance above current price level is at 1,2246.
This scenario is possible as long as we don't see price falling down below 1,2100!
Nfp
XAUUSD Analysis for June NFPLooking to use June's NFP to my advantage to short XAU before it ultimately heads to the upside.
Prev results = 266
Cons = 664
Results predicted to be better than expected.
S&D zones, some support, and trendlines identified on the monthly/weekly/daily TF. Will use hourly candles for confirmation before entering.
DowJones/US30 ShortTrendline identified from weekly TF. S&D zones identified from 4H TF. Looks like an 'M' pattern has formed on the 4H so i'll be looking to sell in time for NFP tomorrow. May keep one position open through it.
USDCAD to break 1.21300 resistanceNFP trade idea
The upcoming NFP and Canada Unemployment rate are the catalyst for friday's movement.
My bias is toward the USD, NFP is expected to have a positive data in favor of the USD.
Trade Idea
Buy Entry: 1.2120
TP 1.22050
SL 1.20900
Buy Trigger
Move catalyst NFP expected to have positive data for USD
Price supported by EMA 20 pointing up
Risk Reward Ratio 2+
Stop loss at 1.20900 a break in this level could take the pair down to 1.2000 level
Excellent Opportunity to Sell Gold The price of gold is currently consolidating below the 100-day MA (in blue), ahead of the release of the May payrolls in the U.S. This looks like the peak of a minor pullback, which would allow bears to sell spot in anticipation for continued depreciation in the near future.
The 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement level seems like the most significant target for this new downtrend.
EURUSD AnalysisWe saw positive news for the USD yesterday which gained strength.
Then EURUSD broke below its previous low on the hourly chart.
Other important news are due today - NFP.
We expect to see some moves once the numbers come out, but it's more likely to see another push down to 1,2065.
DO NOT use a big lot size during news.
*This drop in price on EURUSD is not the main market direction!
June NFP Preview In this video we look ahead to NFP and share our insights into how the market could move during and after the NFP report.
In this video we look at EURUSD levels to watch, however its important to be considering all USD pairs (and stock indices) for how they may move in response to the NFP report later.
Long EUR-USD Friday June 4, 2021Predicting poor news for June US Non-Farm Payroll. Predicting a below forecast report, causing dollar weakness.
Additionally, weekly FED balance sheet showing continued growth in US money supply.
EUR/USD pair is trading near a key whole number price point. of 1.21. Expecting bullish momentum post-report.
Watch for stop hunt then big move in reversal.
NFP is Big- This NFP will be HUGE 🕊️ 🦅This NFP has an extra layer of expected Volatility and importance attached to it.
For starters, there will be speech from Jerome Powel (president of the Federal Reserve), 90 minutes before the NFP announcement. For any experienced trader this makes things even more interesting.
Take a look at the video and the Dollar index analysis and the rest will make sense.
This NFP will be a critical, decision making factor of whether the dollar will stand up on it's feet or it will dip into the abyss. The second is more probable but the Americans know how to 'play this game'...
Friday is close, mark the date.
the FXPROFESSOR
Gold Analysis - June 3-4th 2021Hello,
We are approaching a fundamental rally between tomorrow and Friday with the following economic events:
ADP (Automatic Data Processing) Non-Farm Employment - Expecting bad numbers
Unemployment Claims - Expecting bad numbers
PMI - Expecting good numbers
Average Hourly Earnings - Expecting bad numbers
NFP - Expecting good numbers
Unemployment Rate - Expecting good rate
Taking all this information and analyzing it, there is a 50/50 expectation towards the market. There is a very high possibility that Gold will drop into recent demand areas where Buys for me make a lot more sense at the moment continuing the strong bullish momentum it has had. I will be analyzing the following areas for High Risk High Reward Buys:
Zone 1 - 1893 (HRHR Buys)
Zone 2 - 1883 (HRHR Buys)
1st TP - 1912
2nd TP - 1923
From here to tomorrow I can easily see there will be consolidation preparing for the news on Thursday and Friday. If you see price taking a specific direction then consolidating it is preparing to do the complete opposite. In my experience Gold sets and prepares itself at a certain area which becomes a high demand zone, order block and then once news is released the orders will release as well.
Safe trading!
Understanding the NFP EU PumpHere are some questions I put out to my community group the other day followed by the answers. The reasoning being the move has been annotated on the chart.
Why did price slowly decline prior to NFP?
- Price had to decline slightly before NFP to mitigate the impulsive move created earlier in the day.
- Price had to stop out break and re-test buyers with a tight stop loss
- Price had to lure sellers into the market before NFP
Why did price reject the exact box marked before skyrocketing?
- Price skyrocketed because it had gathered enough liquidity from stopping out the buyers.
- It utilised the previous order block to skyrocket to take out the impulsive sellers before NFP.
DXY - What's next! Bears gain control!
We had US data NFP, a large miss increasing majors - which GBP is looking interesting! Now as I mentioned many times, I don't think tapering from Feds will be announced anytime soon, patience is really key with this. End of summer I feel there will be further mentioning. However, for now I really don't. The data hasn't been consistent ...So what do you do? Well, your trend is your friend until broken. Right now the bears are still in control and we have to respect that.
Technical Aspects:
Support: 89.99, 88.87, 88.24, 87.10
Resistance: 90.98, 92.55, 94.22
Pattern: Bear Flag (Channel)
89. 40 Below bears will gain further control
92.55 Above bulls will gain further control
Great move this week by precious metals! I feel the NFP did great movement to a lot of currencies finally!
Key Tip: I came across this amazing quote - "Successful people maintain a positive focus in life no matter what is going on around them. They stay focused on their past successes rather than their past failures, and on the next action steps they need to take to get them closer to the fulfillment of their goals rather than all the other distractions that life presents to them."
It's so true! Personal story I will share with you. When I was starting out and even now still you have these negative mindset people full of envy, hatred and have a very large ego...Weirdly, they the ones who are unsuccessful - wondering to themselves why are they succeeding? why aren't I? and the answer is: Not a crystal ball but focus on yourself, rather than causing drama in other peoples lives, being jealous and all the various negative actions you're taking, spend those precious timely moments on yourself. The only person you should be competing with is yourself.
Have a great week ahead!
Trade Journal
XAUUSD - How I caught 580 pips on Gold almost zero Drawdown💰💰Hello Traders😃
I have decided to make this educational post on a trade I took on the 5th of may which took profit after NFP✅
I believe there is a struggling trader who may be having difficulties putting it all together and creating a simple trading plan.
The first thing to remember is that trading is probabilities so we try to get as many reasons as possible in our favor before placing any single trade
If you see most of my ideas I highlight if a trade is medium probability or high probability and it’s mostly backed by these factors,
The more factors in my favor, the higher the probability ⚜️
In this trade I simply used these 5 reasons to get on this trade and all criteria was met perfectly.✊🏽
You don’t need a magic indicator or a lot of lines on your chart to be profitable
Remember simplicity is the key 🔑
Just these 5 factors helped me to secure 580 pips on a single trade with a healthy risk to reward too.😊
I caught a similar trade on the 15th of April which I’ve linked below and you can see the factors above
Keep things simple and repeatable♻️
God bless you😊
I wish you all a profitable trading career
Slick⚜️
GBPUSD - 160 pips Banked💰💰💰- UpdateHello Traders
Congratulations to everyone who took this trade with me 👏
Congratulation on the USDCHF shorts too another good 100pips👏💰
It was a wild ride but we got through and the news worked in our favor
I know some of the members have not yet taken profit due to different brokers but don’t worry 1.40 will be hit
God bless you
I wish you a happy weekend and be rejuvenated as we start the new week next week
Stay blessed
Slick⚜️
EUR/USD - Structure and Forecast UpdateEUR/USD - 4HR Chart
We can see price was respecting this ascending channel. We broke with a strong bearish push after price failed to test the upside of the channel.
We are currently testing 1.21 which has acted as a key psychological resistance level previously. Will we see the strong bearish move to the downside as forecasted?
Watch out for NFP release today - it will certainly increase volatility in the FX markets!
Have a great trading day!
XAUUSD NFP Weekly Forecast!Hello Fellow Traders, Here is a Full Analysis For XAUUSD.
Key things to Remember:
GOLD has Respected This Channel Many times In the Past!
Weekly Supply Area For GOLD - We can expect Institutions to Sell in this Area!
The Best way to follow my Analysis is if the following conditions apply.
Conditions -
1. Wait for the Market to Show you some Rejection / Confirmation / Direction
2.Wait for confirmation(Price Action Confirmation Aka . Pinbar , Bullish or Bearish engulfing / Break of structure Aka Support Or Resistance)
3.Do your Own analysis! (Draw Trend Lines / Support & Resistance Zones / SND )
4.Always Use Risk Management (Risk 1% of your capital)
5.Entry Should be Made on The 4H Timeframe (Only if you have Confirmation)
6.Trade at own risk.
7.Show some support Below (Like , Comment , Follow & share)
Let Me know if you have any Questions or Comments Below!
I have Left my Previous Analysis below for further reference :)
Happy Trading & Goodluck!
See You in the next Analysis!
Global Fx Education
GU Short BiasLast week was NFP, so we expect a long term trend to kick in. So as per the Strategy, we wait for the daily (Monday) candle to finish forming and on Tuesday open we set stop pending orders at 15 pips from high and low of Monday candle then we let market do it's thing, once triggered we exit position by Friday afternoon.
As for NFP intraday Strategy, at 1530(GMT +2) when news are released, don't place any trades yet, do the following steps.
1. Switch to M5 TIMEFRAME
2. So once it's 1530 we wait for the candle to finish forming
3. At 1535(still on the M5(5 Minutes timeframe) you use the news candle( the one that just previously closed) then u place stop pending orders at the high and low of the news candle at 15pips/150 points distance.
4. Once either of the order gets triggered you delete the one which didn't trigger
5. Exit position before the day ends.
Markets await RBA decisionThe Australian dollar has started the week with slight gains. Currently, the pair is trading at 0.7626, up 0.25% on the day.
Friday's Nonfarm payrolls was expected to be strong, and NFP delivered big, with a read of 916 thousand, up from 379 thousand a month earlier. This figure easily beat the forecast of 652 thousand. With the US recovery gaining traction and the Biden administration pouring trillions of dollars into the economy, we can expect upcoming NFP prints to be above the one million level. That is, if the vaccination rollout continues as planned. The US dollar didn't show much reaction to the blowout release, and AUD/USD was muted on Friday.
Overshadowed by the sparkling NFP report was a drop in the unemployment rate, which dropped from 6.2% to 6.0%, matching the forecast. Unemployment continues to fall and this was the lowest level since April 2020, prior the huge jump in unemployment due to the Covid pandemic.
The RBA holds its monthly policy meeting on Tuesday (4:30 GMT). The meeting is expected to be uneventful, with the central bank widely expected to maintain interest rate and interest rate and yield curve targets at 0.1%. The bank's QE programme of A$100 billion is set to expire but will be immediately renewed for a six-month period.
The RBA has been in dovish mode, stating that it expects to maintain its current stance until 2024, when inflation is projected to reach the bank's target of 2-3%. However, Australia's economy has been recovering rapidly and it's entirely possible that inflation could reach this target well before 2024, in which case we could see rate hikes ahead of the RBA's schedule.
AUD/USD faces resistance at 0.7675. Above, there is resistance at 0.7735 The first line of support is at 0.7543, followed by support at 0.7471.